Juliancolton

Still waiting on first flakes at POU latitude. 19/9F sets the stage for a very cold start to the storm.

I haven't seen this posted yet. These are some pretty crazy totals west of the river as far as ensemble means go. The HREFs obviously aren't immune to QPF bombs from its members, but a product like this really illustrates just how sky-high the ceiling is for this event. Sadly I think the valley shadowing is real in eastern Dutchess. Maybe I'll end up just on the happy side of that gradient.

Yep, good as new now. I bought a new heat tape as well, so hopefully that prevents further issues.

Spent the afternoon replacing a burst pipe in the well house, fun stuff. That system always picks the best times to crap out on me.

Who needs the NAM when you have NWS Upton?

I admire your commitment to journal keeping! That's awesome.

Was that March 7th? Trying to remember how that went down here. I think the one before that was the super wet snow with power outages, right?

Can't wait for my 2-4"

What's a Rockland?

Downsloping off the Taconics could be a real thorn in my side. Legendary for OC though... 18+ there seems more likely than not.

Looks awesome... starting to get the look of a very memorable event around here. Hopefully the strongest dynamics keep tickling north.

I'm always left in awe reading recollections from the old-timers of storms half a century or more in the past. I desperately wish my mind worked that way... after a couple seasons, almost all events just blend together in my head.

While I'm generally happy with how the forecast is unfolding for the interior, the currently favored closer to coast track would temper the duration aspect of the storm for our area. A 700mb low track effectively over NYC would mean transient rather than quasi-stationary banding, with the dominant deformation zone not really pivoting until it's way upstate. On the 00z hi-res NAM, I-84 doesn't begin snowing in earnest until around 6 am Monday; dry air starts working its way down to beneath the DGZ by 10 pm. That's obviously a nice comfy window for accumulations, but nothing extraordinary... and I think we all know how "long duration" storms usually work out. Ratios look fine during the meat of the storm – a little better than climo, limited by a rather shallow growth zone and a rather deep riming layer, but generally a good cross-hairs signature. A first call would look something like TEB ∞, HPN 18", SWF 15", POU 12".

They've been out fishing on White Pond for a while now.

Nah, we'll do alright I think. Just like with $GME, hold the line and don't sell no matter what.

Nice arctic snow shower going on here. Low of 4.8, currently sitting at 6F. I can't remember the last time it snowed at temps this cold

For the 00z/01 run, yeah

Seems like a better clustering by a good deal than you'd expect from that broad, lumbering trough. #underdispersion

What time will the ensemble hit my house?

Same here for storm total. The last .7" or so overnight was much wetter than the daytime accumulation, so it does have a degree of that winter wonderland look.

1.7" here in Dutchess. A little freezing mist happening now

Had a quick burst of borderline heavy snow with visibility right around 1/4 mile, but it has since shut off almost completely. Less than an inch so far.

Tomorrow's thing has actually been trending pretty nice – I mean, we're grading on a curve here – compared to a couple days ago. A mini-thump tomorrow afternoon followed by nearly 24 hours of snow showers, with the potential for a final quick burst on Wednesday as the inverted trough takes shape. 2-4" would be welcomed with open arms.

Today has been rather uncomfortable outside on account of the wind. I'd love to be able to report that it wasn't so bad if you were in the sun but, yeah, we're nowhere near that point yet.

Yeah, most of that stuff is going to dissipate in the next hour or two with the loss of daytime heating. That one squall approaching the escarpment looks potent, and may have a bit more staying power... we'll see