mob1

Every single model has trended towards moving the heaviest precipitation west of us. You're relying on a front to move through and falling temps, and I think you've been doing this long enough to understand that we usually cool slower than forecasted and with lighter precipitation you'll have BL issues even if it's sufficiently cold aloft. If the axis of heaviest precipitation moves back east a bit on models I'll be more confident, but right now I think you're setting yourself up for a major disappointment.

By 1.7 miles. The storm is in 48 hours, that shift means nothing. It's more about whether it's right in the first place, but recents trends have been worrying.

It's still terrible for most here

Man, weather really messes with your psyche.

For this weekend's event; Tony is going with the precipitation shield of the RGEM, low and boundary placement of the EURO, and for temps he's going with what models have for Tuesday morning - then he can always adjust snowfall totals upwards if needed.

I don't understand how, after all the disappointing trends you've lived through, you can still so confidently proclaim this. Weather is always transient and ever-changing (which is why forecasting is such a humbling hobby).

We're relying on good timing to be on the right side of the boundary, and very often these fronts slow down a bit as we get closer to the event. Rain (even a bit inland) is always a possibility. Hopefully we'll see some positive trends today.

Yeah, this is quickly becoming an away from the coast event. Would suck here, but at least the ski resorts would get some love.

I ski Sugarbush at least 3-4 every year (It's quite the trek from NYC but well worth it) and always found that as a no frills resort (for the most part) they tended to open terrain with limited snow coverage and it added to a sense of adventure. It hasn't been the case in recent years so I wonder if it's a safety thing required by Alterra.

In 1948 (well before the Superbowl era)

18Z Euro is pretty much 0.75-1.5" areawide.

GFS is honestly not that far off for the second threat. Ends up climbing the coast.

Comes up the coast afterwards. Fantastic run.

So many different outcomes...

This would be something else

One thing to be mindful of when you have a shortwave riding the backside of an arctic front, is that the timing of the front is often slower to move through than forecasted and could end up favoring areas away from the immediate coast. Not that I expect that to happen, but it's well within the range of possible outcomes and these setups and volatile and unpredictable.

Looks terrible aloft and is hanging back far too much energy, this wouldn't yield anything good for us (other than some consultation snow showers from the northern stream).

There honestly isn't much uncertainty here. All the hype was for 2 GFS runs essentially while other models showed very little.

Exactly In other news, your avatar makes me sad. That was some grade A weather porn.

EPS is coming in hot, very significant improvement.

You're not wrong. Verbatim, it's still an exciting storm for them (heavy snow/rain, wind, and coastal flooding). If the GFS plays out, a weekend at Killington is in order.

It's amusing to watch as we have exactly zero control over it so it's often perplexing as to why people are upset, or in some cases genuinely despise others for getting more snow. I live in NYC but spend a lot of time here and the upstate NY/PA thread (as an avid skier I have a vested interest in both climates) , as well as the Mid Atlantic one (they're a fun group and always seem to be having a good time despite mother nature using them as her personal toilet for years) - and always find it amusing that everyone feels a bit superior over the region that gets less snow than them. There's probably someone from Valdez Alsaka lurking in this thread and rolling his eyes that we're getting excited about a few feet of snow.

Yeah, that band he was referring to was some mesoscale pre band that was like 12-24 hours before the actual storm hit and made the bust a tiny more tolerable (not much though).

27.5 for that one (highest ever) I recorded 30 inches in Brooklyn and was one of my favorite storms (though it was all gone in a few days).