mob1
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Everything posted by mob1
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Let's compare that to what the 18Z HRRR had at this point.
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Some areas south of Tom's River are closing in on 2 inches but models had almost nothing for them to this point. It doesn't necessarily mean anything for the main show later tonight into tomorrow, but it shows how hard these mesoscale features are to pin down.
- 886 replies
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- heavy rain
- flooding potential
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What did it look at at 0Z? Never mind, Pivotal has a trend option.
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Yes, let's. My favorite flooding event ever, my street was literally a river. None of the cars in these pictures are actually moving, they're all parked.
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More like 7-9". It's confined to a relatively small area though, and looks like a classic winter norlun through with the isobars elongated towards the NW. Those suckers can generate a ton of forcing but are notoriously fickle and hard to pin down. More often than not, the axis of the heaviest precipitation ends up a bit NE of where it was modeled.
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Yep, looks like a more realistic version of the NAM.
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Absolutely pouring here for the past 20 minutes. These last few bands are going to add up quick.
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Just crossed 2 inches for the event. It's been a slow bleed to get there so definitely not concerned about flooding.
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We'll see if Ophelia's remnant low does indeed regenerate a bit to give parts of our region flooding rains. Models have hinted at it on and off, but for now it looks like a long shot.
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These are a bit further east than the bands last night so it might clip a larger portion of the island.
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Over 1.5" now with about the same amount left to go if models are to be believed.
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1.27" here and there seems to be some nice bands that should rotate off the ocean in the next few hours. We'll see what tomorrow brings, but I'll probably end up with around 2 inches or so which is more than enough.
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Now the GFS comes in with this. It's just impossible to get any kind of agreement and/or consistency from models anymore.
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It's fine where it's now, we were discussing the shelf waters as it gets closer to the coast. Either way, should be a fairly steady state from now through landfall (might strengthen a bit in the next few hours but should weaken a bit as it approaches the coast).
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You're coming on a bit strong. Relax, it's just a storm and the reality is that 78-80 degree SST's are borderline at best. Recon recording unflagged SFMR of 70 knots should be enough for an upgrade (though they didn't do it at 5).
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Tropical Storm Ophelia—Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Mid-Atlantic
mob1 replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
Maybe some kind of sting jet on the southern quadrant. It's actually quite common with subtropical "half-canes" at this latitude. -
Recon so far has found flight level winds of 62 knots, surface at 48 knots and extrapolated pressure of 991 mb or so.
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Verbatim, the GFS has a much more significant system the second time around. Some really strong winds and a ton of rain (it also coincides with the full moon). It's in fantasy range though, I can barely get it right 24 hours out.
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It ultimately comes back for another round. Interesting evolution, it'll be fun to see what happens.
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GFS and CMC also have this meandering around all week but way further south than the ICON. With a stout blocking pattern, it would make sense that it'll hang around somewhere.
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For sh!ts and giggles, look the entire ICON run. It has rain throughout the entire run.
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Has the majority of the rain in round 2 (and lots of it).
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Cape Hatteras is gusting to 31 Beaufort Smith Field (KMRH) now gusting to 33 mph as well and Cherry Point to 37. Should pick up later this afternoon. Aso, Buoy off the coast of Carolina gusting to 62 mph.
