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mob1

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  1. mob1
    Confirmed tornado approaching Rolesville
  2. mob1
    Radar velocities still show some 100 mph winds just off the deck for areas just inland
  3. mob1
    Pretty impressive actually, not sure what some of you expected.
  4. mob1
    Some hurricane force gusts starting to show on personal weather stations along the immediate beaches east of Pensacola.
  5. mob1
    Looks like the more consistent and stronger winds will move into the coastal areas between Pensacola and Panama Beach in the next 30-60 minutes.
  6. mob1
    So resilient
  7. mob1
    Radar (and the microwave pass posted above) did show some signs of degrading and possibly starting an EWRC, but radar has since improved.
  8. mob1
    Based on radar it could be a bit more of an eyewall meld than a true EWRC (which is sometimes common as it approaches land and the friction causes it to tighten up a bit) but it's definitely degrading which is welcome timing.
  9. mob1
    Surge is always tricky to nail down, but while the inhibiting factors will help, there's actually a decently large areas of strong winds on the eastern side of the storm and I believe the northern gulf is slightly more susceptible to surge due to the shallow continental shelf. Likely won't be devastating, but I can see areas like Destin seeing a fairly significant storm surge.
  10. mob1
    NAM is pretty far south with the precipitation so we'll see, but I'm assuming some of this will rotate through in the next 6-12 hours.
  11. mob1
    There's an obvious tradeoff with both a southern and northern track, I just personally enjoy the wind aspect more. Was hoping to get some of the more extreme outcomes depicted by some morning runs, though verbatim this was likely very overdone.
  12. mob1
    Not really the point, other models have it as well. You want the storm to move westward at the latitude of Ocean City NJ or so and ideally before it occludes. The models that showed that earlier had the best winds Saturday night into Sunday.
  13. mob1
    Hi Res NAM (and some other models) have this occurring a bit further north and has much tamer winds than some earlier runs. We'll see if it was just a blip but often as these events approach they trend a bit NE and weaker so we get a bit of a lackluster storm relative to expectations. We'll see how it unfolds, but personally I much prefer the 12Z NAM runs (despite sputting out far less precipitation. Rain events are a dime a dozen, good wind and coastal flooding is somewhat rarer).
  14. mob1
    Does indeed come ashore in central NJ
  15. mob1
    Thanks but that's 06Z. 12Z is running now on Pivotal so we'll see in a few.
  16. mob1
    Can you please post it? Curious is to where exactly it comes ashore.
  17. mob1
    This is the track that'll yield the worst winds and coastal flooding. The models that have it go over the NY harbor or so are less extreme (this is obviously especially true for the central NJ coastline.
  18. mob1
  19. mob1
    RGEM also shifted SW. If this trend is real (too soon to tell given how globals look), it'll really eat into the precipitation totals for northern areas.
  20. mob1
    Not sure what it showed in prior runs. Here it is at hour 72 for example, now compare it with the western camps. It does inch it's way west eventually, but at that point the winds have very little bite left.
  21. mob1
    UKIE is pretty far east, and while it does bring some rain eventually (as the storm retrograde SW) at that point it's largely occluded and winds throughout are very meh.
  22. mob1
    Big change
  23. mob1
    NAM is a fairly significant event for the coast
  24. mob1
    While the HRRR is notoriously too amped and NW at this range, it's too far off of what the 0Z Euro had (though it's far tamer in its latest run) and if other models come in that tucked to the coast I could see this being a more significant wind event than what's currently expected.
  25. mob1
    Recent eastward trends have made things a lot more interesting for Kauai.
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