Roger Smith

Why can't the models be more consistent in the ways that they screw us? seems to be what people are wondering here.

I believe the lowest average temperature in the northeast U.S. is around Feb 5th long-term. That is where the temperature cycle begins to reverse. Of course the solar angle cycle reverses shortly after the winter solstice in late December but as people are saying there is little perceptible influence on potential melt factor until mid-Feb. Late Feb rises faster than Jan declines which is why Jan averages are a bit lower than Feb averages for most locations (Feb means can be lowest for locations with more maritime influence).

Closest three forecasts at each location (and a few extra near misses) NYC (11.4) __ NegNAO, WeatherGeek2025, LVBlizzard all at 11.0 BOS (23.2) _ 20.4 Roger Smith ... 20.0 TriPOL ... 19.0 Digityman PHL (9.3) __ 9.0 GregRUPS & LVBlizzard & snywx ... (4th) 8.7 hudsonvalley21 ... (t-5th) 10.0 NegNAO & Digityman DCA (6.9) __ 7.0 TriPOL & GregRups21 & BRSno & WeatherGeek2025 & Digityman all tied err 0.1 for 6.8 Snowlover11 ... (7th) 6.7 JM1220 ... BDL (17.3) __17.5 Roger Smith ... 17.0 Digityman & GATECH & snywx (all tied 2nd) ALY (12.6) __ 13.0 EastonSN+ & powpow ... 12.0 Prue11 (3rd)

Not sure if our host is working on scoring results, I had a look at all entries, these were lowest totals I found (if you are not in this unofficial list, your total error was >20"): (no guarantees of this list matching official contest results) 1. Digityman _____________ 9.3 2. GregRups21 ___________ 10.9 3. WeatherGeek2025 ____ 11.7 4. LVBlizzard ____________ 12.7 t5. BRSno, snywx ________ 13.7 7. GATECH ______________ 14.3 8. JM1220 ______________ 14.7 9. CPCantmeasuresnow_ 16.0 (using entry of measured 8.5 CP, would be 14.3 using entry of actual 10.2 CP) 10. hudsonvalley21 ______ 16.5 11. RJay _________________ 18.0 12. Don Sutherland ______ 18.8 13. Neg NAO _____________19.1 14. Snowlover11 _________ 19.8 ======================= (rest are 20.0 +) (RS was 21.8 despite lowest error BOS) x. TriPol _________________ 20.9 _ note this entry has 0 for PHL if that was a typo the total would have been less (in this calculation it is 9.3" of the total) (this entry would be 4th if the 0 for PHL was meant to be 9, or 10) NOTE: Of all entries, four were below 12.6" actual for Albany, none were above actual 23.2" for Boston. It appears that Hartford was our most accurate consensus forecast followed by DC, generally too low for PHL and NYC and too high for ALY <<< MADE THIS LIST, CHECKED IT TWICE, FINDING OUT WHO WAS NAUGHTY OR NICE >>>

That -37 on the NJ map is probably two nearby locations with lows of -3 and +7.

Bring snow, we could use some here. In town, 3 to 5 inches. At ski resort, they say much more, must be snow they made because on the ground away from the resort it looks like 8" to maybe a foot. And it's recent powder on top of a frozen old crust. I haven't seen so little amounts of snow here in the seven winters we have lived here, normal maximum snow depth here is 30" in town and 45" in the hills and is around from mid-January to early March normally.

Greenland Air Force?

Pretty rare to see a southwest moving upper cold core and so you have to wonder how skilled would any models be in resolving future motions of the resultant energy? My subjective guess is that they would have little or no skill, so therefore the only part of any model run we can trust at this stage is out to 96-102h, what happens after that is purely conjecture from low-skill models (all of them in this case). I believe in reality you have a 50-50 shot at a significant snowstorm in DC and BAL from this foundation. NYC is probably closer to 25%, then it's back up towards 50-50 in New England (70% Cape Cod). I think it's 80 to 90 per cent locked in that s.e. VA and some parts of NC see large snowfalls, there is not going to be an inland complicating primary with this.

06z NAM seems a bit slower and weaker by end of run than its 00z counterpart was. Probably not much of a clue since it hadn't reached the explosive development phase by 18z Saturday.

Post your February forecasts, due to storm situation will extend penalty free deadline to 06z FEB 2nd. I may change my mind but to start us off, -5.5 _ -6.0 _ -6.5 _ -6.5 _ -6.0 _ -5.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0

I did a quick look through the forecasts now that I know the outcomes and it looks like a close fight among a number of you, including our contest host, for lowest aggregate error. My blunder to say PHL 3.7" plus a lot of sleet, of course that was probably true except the sleet should be in the total too. Duh. KP for BOS however. A lot of us thought Albany would exceed 12.6" -- going back into charts to make sure they haven't revised that one.

Do this again with a guy in a toque watching a hockey game on his I-phone with score CANADA 5 USA 1 (sorry eh)

I would have titled this thread Blizzard of 1899 With Automobiles Added

Well Mr Thompson on Pleasant Avenue told Mrs Thompson he had to work late because of an important project, but actually her name was Naomi.

Sure turned that season around.

Bernie Rayno and Doctor No _ now playing at a theater near you.

Also, accordion to some, Blizzard of 1899. Now there was a storm.

I find it odd that every subforum that might not get hit on Sunday-Monday has a thread and this one which is almost sure to get hit, does not? I am not a qualified thread starter being of foreign ancestry. Tick tock.

Well the closed low in 1980 was about even with the southern tip of the Delmarva, I was actually in a weather forecast office during that event, the surface low looped around very close to Cape Hatteras, near the NC-VA border. The Blizzard of 1899 may never have been associated with a closed low on the other hand, it was a fairly close analogue to the March 1993 superstorm. I agree with your point that the synoptics are fairly extreme historically, whether once or twice equalled being irrelevant to the outcome.

The number one analogue identified is March 2-3 1980. This stalled off the Delmarva and gave Norfolk 2-3 feet of snow. I would imagine the 500 mb low had a central height near 508 dm with that. Also the Blizzard of Feb 1899 drew cold air over the southeast setting all-time record low temps such as -2F at Tallahassee FL. Chunks of ice floated out of the Mississippi delta into the Gulf. A blizzard snowstorm formed near the Georgia coast and ran up the east coast. I would imagine there could have been a very low 500 mb height with that event but of course these were not known or measured at that time.

So now I have all the clues ... YYZ snow depth increased 41 cm from their measured 46 cm fall. Toronto City snow depth increased 46 cm (13 to 59) from the unknown but anecdotally supported 61 cm. An exact 1:1 ratio with YYZ differentials assuming same depression of existing snow pack suggests 52 cm of snow fell downtown. So it's 52 to 61 giving a liquid equivalent of 20.8 mm. Will think about it as to the exact number I will plug into my updated Toronto City stats but any way one cuts it, a new record 24h calendar day amount. Looks like 0.1" or 0.2 cm of snow to add on 26th for two day total of somewhere between 21 and 24 inches. I will probably go with the 61 cm since it seems like it may have been a tweet from somebody associated with the site, or, they measured very close to the site. Quite a notable record given the 183 years of snowfall data at the location, the higher end is also the highest 2-day total even without adding 0.1". 61 cm in exact conversion would be 61/2.54 = 24.0" .. 61.2 cm gets to 24.1" ... this is greater than the 23.0" from Dec 25-26, 1872 (another frigid east wind enhancement event apparently).

Coming soon to an Ocean near you. Well let's hope for better than that -- this could be anywhere from a K-U monster to a fish storm although I believe s.e. VA will score big no matter what.

Absolutely, wait for the 00z suite right?

The LFM nailed the 1980 storm like you would not believe. Bring back the LFM. It goes out to 72 hours now ya know.

This could be ORF the charts, so RICh in potential, but keep your eye on the BALL because you may be more FROzen than CHOsen. Your snow gauge may be PHL or empty, and I may ACY this forecast or you may end up complaining to the BOS that I did not PVD good guidance. I won't LYH this is a tough one. There hasn't been one this tough since ABE Lincoln called the Blizzard of 1857 before he turned to politics. I couldn't think of a pun for DCA sorry. ISP we all slip on this stuff. EWR saying?