Roger Smith

For me, back to the traditional so-so 4 on a 10 point scale of site performance, after about a month of unusable 0.5-1 type jammed up issues (laptop still runs at 9/10).

Reports on anomalies and forecasts ... ____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _8th ________ (7d) ___________ +2.7 _--1.6 _--0.4 __--1.1 _+6.4 _+4.6 ___ +5.6 _+6.5 _+4.6 _8th _______(p14d) ___________ +1.5 _--0.8 __0.0 __+0.7 _+6.0 _+4.5 ___ +3.5 _+3.5 _+2.8 _8th _______(p24d) ___________ +2.0 __0.0 _+1.0 __+1.5 _+4.0 _+3.0 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+1.0 16th _______ (15d) ____________+4.2 __0.0 _+1.0*_ +2.1 _+8.2 _+4.5 ___ +6.0*_+3.9 _+3.1 16th ______ (p22d) ____________+3.0 __0.0 _+0.3 __+4.5 _+6.6 _+5.0 ___ +5.5 _+2.7 _+2.0 16th _______(p30d) ____________+3.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 __+3.5 _+5.0 _+5.0 ___ +5.0 _+3.0 _+2.5 23rd ______ (22d) _____________ +4.2 _+0.6 _+1.8*__+4.4 _+7.5 _+3.7 ___ +5.9 _+2.5 _+2.4 23rd ______ (p30d) ____________ +4.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 __+4.0 _+8.0 _+4.0 ___ +6.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ final anomalies ____________+5.5 _+2.4 _+3.1 __+4.8 _+8.9 _+4.0 ___ +5.9 _+0.7 _+1.5 16th _ Went a day late as NWS had not updated all CF6 on 15th, BOS and DEN still not updated so used daily climate reports to estimate. The forecasts to 14th were not out as much as 15th data might imply (DCA to BOS, ORD, DEN) because 15th was very warm, still, they were low by about a degree; the rest were fairly accurate. ... Have now projected to 22nd and end of month, the GFS continues quite warm in all regions 23rd to 30th. Month will likely end quite a bit warmer than forecast range for central and DEN. Seasonal max had no new developments despite 98F at DCA on 12th, the table back in August thread is likely final now, will confirm around 25th. 23rd _ Some of the stations have not updated since the 8th so I had to estimate their anomalies so far. Since the seven-day NWS forecast takes us to the 29th, I have added day 8 from the GFS to the one forecast added today although most of the NWS forecasts I used had updated through Monday 30th (I am a bit late getting to this today). This will make it possible to post provisional scoring by tomorrow. 1st Oct _ Final anomalies are now posted, and scoring will be adjusted very soon as most of the estimates proved to be correct..

First reports on anomalies and forecasts ... ____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _8th ________ (7d) ___________ +2.7 _--1.6 _--0.4 __--1.1 _+6.4 _+4.6 ___ +5.6 _+6.5 _+4.6 _8th _______(p14d) ___________ +1.5 _--0.8 __0.0 __+0.7 _+6.0 _+4.5 ___ +3.5 _+3.5 _+2.8 _8th _______(p24d) ___________ +2.0 __0.0 _+1.0 __+1.5 _+4.0 _+3.0 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+1.0

Table of entries for September 2019 FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Roger Smith _______________ +2.4 _+2.0 _+3.3 __ +0.8 _+1.5 _+2.0 ___ +2.2 _+2.4 _+3.6 BKViking _____ (-8%)________+1.8 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+1.2 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+0.9 _+1.8 wxdude64 ____ (-1%) _______+1.8 _+1.1 _+0.2 __ --0.8 _+1.4 _+0.9 ___ +1.1 _+1.4 _+2.2 hudsonvalley21 _____________+1.6 _+1.7 _+2.2 __ +0.2 _+1.4 _+1.2 ___ +0.4 _+1.2 _+2.1 Scotty Lightning ____________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _--0.5 ___ Consensus _____________+1.5 _+1.1 _+1.0 __ +0.4 _+1.4 _+1.3 ___ +1.0 _+1.4 _+2.1 wxallannj __________________+1.2 _+1.1 _+1.2 __ +0.4 _+2.1 _+1.4 ___ +0.9 _+1.4 _+2.4 DonSutherland1 ____________ +0.5 _+0.6 _+0.4 __ +0.2 _+1.4 _+1.3 ___ +0.6 _+1.5 _+2.1 RodneyS __________________ +0.5 _+0.3 _+0.3 __ +0.6 _+0.2 _+2.7 ___ +2.6 _+1.2 _+2.1 Tom ______________________+0.3 _+0.2 _+0.3 __ --0.3 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +1.2 _+1.5 _+1.6 ___ Normal _________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0

FYI, late penalties to date have cost BKV a total of 131 points which if added to total score would improve overall rank from 7th to 4th place. No telling how much of that might not occur if the later data available was not considered, which is most of the reason for the late penalty rather than a punitive motive (translated to simple English, a late entry could score higher than the same forecaster's on time entry because of model improvement and data already known, whether by the 8% per 36h that is usually in play or less, an open question). Tom had one late penalty month and lost 31 points which was not enough to change rank from 9th. And wxdude64 lost a small total of nine points with one per cent reductions in one month; that made no difference to his third place rank. Before bowing out, RJay had lost 98 points to late penalties and Stebo 46. At that time they had lost two and one ranking respectively.

Four Seasons Contest Update -- summer 2019 Contest is now based on total rankings, so that lowest totals are best. The ranks of all locations, subgroups and groups, as well as the all nine totals, are ranked. The eastern and central subtotal ranks are not counted since central-eastern is a ranked category. This table adds your summer rankings to the previously listed winter and spring totals. FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west__all nine__TOTAL  ___ Consensus ____winter__ 5 __ 6 __ 6 __ ( 5) ___ 6 __ 7 __ 6*__( 6) __ 6 ___6*__ 6 __ 5 ___5 ___ 7 _______ 71 ________________ spring __ 1 __ 2 __ 4*__ ( 1) ___ 2 __ 4 __ 5 __ ( 2) __ 2 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 4 ___ 4 ____ 3 ______ 40 ________________ summer _3*__1*__ 4 __ ( 3) ___ 6 __ 3*__ 2*__(4*) __ 2 ___ 6 __ 5 __5 ___ 5 ____ 1 ______ 43 __ 154  RodneyS _________winter___8 __ 8 __ 3 __ ( 8) ___ 9 __ 3*__ 4 __ ( 4) __ 5 ___ 6 __ 6 __ 5 ___ 5 ____ 5 ______ 67 ________________ spring __ 4* __1 __ 3 __ ( 4) ___ 1__ 2 __ 1*__( 1) __ 1 ___ 1 __ 2 __1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ______ 19 ________________ summer _ 5*__2 __ 2 __ ( 4) ___ 1*_ 9 __ 6 __ ( 7) __ 9 ___ 4*__ 9 __ 5 ___ 7 ____ 7 ______ 68 __ 154   wxallannj ________ winter __ 3 __ 4 __ 1 __ ( 2) ___10 __1 __ 1 __ ( 1) __1 ___ 3 __ 8 __ 7 ___ 7 ____ 1 ______47 ________________ spring ___3 __ 9 __ 5 __ ( 6) ___ 2 __ 3 __ 7 __ ( 3) __ 6 ___ 7 __ 3 __ 5 ___ 5 ____ 4 ______ 59 ________________ summer _ 2 __ 5 __ 1 __ ( 1) ___ 8 __ 8 __ 7 __ (8*) __ 5 __ 3 __ 3 __ 3 ___ 3 ____ 3 ______ 51 __ 157  DonSutherland.1 __ winter __ 4 __ 5 __10 __ ( 6) ___5 __ 2 __ 3 __ ( 3) __ 3 ___ 7 __ 2 __ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______ 46  ________________ spring __ 7 __ 2 __ 4 __ ( 7) ___ 6 __ 8 __ 1*__( 2) __ 4*___3 __ 1 __ 3 ___ 2 ____ 2 ______ 43 _________________summer _5*__3*__ 9 __ ( 7) ___ 4 __ 4*__3* __( 4) __ 6 ___ 7 __ 8 __ 8 ___ 9 ____ 8 ______ 74 __ 163   hudsonvalley21 ____winter __ 5 __ 2 __ 7 __ ( 4) ___ 8 __ 5 __ 6 __ ( 5) __ 4 ___ 4* __4 __ 3 ___ 3 ____ 3 ______ 54  ________________ spring __ 6 __ 3 __ 1 __ ( 1) ___ 7 __ 1 __ 5 __ ( 4) __ 2 ___11 __ 6 __ 8 ___ 8 ____ 6 ______64 _________________summer _4 __ 1 __ 1*__( 1) ___ 5 __ 2 __ 1 __ ( 1) __ 1 ___ 8 __ 7 __ 7 ___ 8 ____3*______48 __ 166 Roger Smith ______winter __1 __ 11 __ 4 __( 5) ___ 11 _ 6 __ 2 __ ( 7) __ 7 ___ 2 __11__ 1 ___ 2 ____ 6 ______ 64 ________________ spring __ 9 __ 5*__ 9 __ ( 9) ___ 4 _ 10 __ 9 __ ( 9) __ 9 ___ 2 __ 5 __ 9 ___ 3 ____ 7 ______ 81 ________________ summer _1 __ 8 __ 6 __ ( 5) ___ 1*__4 __ 8 __ ( 5) __ 7 ___ 1 __ 2 __ 4 ___ 1 ____ 1 ______ 44 __ 189 wxdude64 ________winter __ 9 __ 5 __ 9 __ ( 9) ___ 4 __ 8 __ 7 ___ ( 6) __ 9 ___ 9 __ 7 __ 9 __10 ____10_____100  ________________ spring __ 2 __ 7 __ 6 __ ( 3) ___ 3 __ 7 __ 6 ___ ( 6) __ 4* ___4 __ 4 __ 2 __ 4 _____ 3 _____ 52 _________________summer _9 __3*__ 5 __ ( 6) ___ 1*__6 __ 2 ___ ( 3) __ 3 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 _____ 43 __ 195   Scotty Lightning ___winter__ 2 __ 1 __ 2 __ ( 3) ___ 3 __ 3*__ 5 __ ( 2) __ 2 __11 __10 __10 __11 ____ 4 ______ 64 ________________ spring __ 8 __ 8 __ 2 __ ( 8) ___ 9 __ 4 __ 4 __ ( 7) __ 8 __ 10 __ 9 __ 6 ___ 9 ____ 9 ______ 85 ________________ summer _7*__6 __ 8 __ ( 8) ___ 6 __ 1 __ 5 __ ( 2) __ 4 ___ 2 __ 3*__ 9 ___ 5 ____ 6 ______ 62 __ 211 BKViking _________winter __ 7 __ 3 __ 5 __ ( 5) ___ 6 __10 __ 8 __ (11) __ 6 ___4*__ 9 __11___ 9 ____ 7 ______ 85  ________________ spring __ 1 __ 4 __ 8 __ ( 2) ___ 8 __ 5 __ 8 __ ( 8) __ 7 ___ 8 __ 8 __ 5 ___ 7 ____ 7 ______ 76 _________________summer _ 3 __ 9 __ 3 __ ( 3) ___ 7 __ 3 __ 3* __( 6) __ 2 ___ 6 __ 6 __ 2 ___ 4 ____ 5 ______ 53 __ 214   Tom ____________ winter __11 __ 6 __11 __(11) ___ 1 __11 __ 9 __ ( 9) __11 ___10 __ 3 __ 4 ___ 8 _____11______96  ________________ spring __ 4*__ 5*__ 7 __ ( 5) ___ 5 __ 6 __ 3 ___( 4) __ 3 ____ 6 __ 7 __ 8 ___ 6 _____ 5 _____ 65 _________________summer _7*__ 7 __ 7 __ ( 9) ___ 9 __ 7 __ 8* __( 9) __ 9 ____ 9 __ 1 __ 6 ___ 6 _____ 9 _____ 85 __ 246   ___ Normal _______winter___9 __ 3 __ 8 __ ( 7) ___ 3 __ 7*__ 9*__ ( 6) __ 6 ___10 __ 3 __12 ___ 9 ____ 7 ______ 86 ________________ spring __11 __ 8 __ 4 __ ( 9) ___ 4*__11 __ 3 ___ (9) __ 9 ___ 11 __ 3 __ 9 ___ 8 ____ 10 _____ 91 ________________summer _10__ 6* __10__ (10) ___ 6*__ 9 __ 8 ___ ( 8) __10 ___ 7 __10 __10 ___10 ___ 10 _____106 __ 283 ========================================== (left contest befpre summer portion) . . . _  Stebo ____________winter__ 6 __ 7 __ 6 __ ( 7) ___ 2 __ 9 __10 __ ( 8) __ 8 ___ 8 __ 5 ___ 6 ___ 6 ____ 8 _____ 81  ________________ spring __10 __10__10 __ (10) ___11 __9 __11 __(11) __10 ___ 9 __11 __11 __11 ____10 _____123 __ (204)   RJay ____________winter___10 __10 __ 8 __(10) ___ 7 __ 7 __11 __ (10)__10 ___ 1 __ 1 ___ 8 ___4 ____ 9 _____ 86  ________________ spring __11 __ 11__11 __ (11) __10 __11__10 __(10) __11 ___ 5 __10 __10 ___10 ___ 11 ____121 __(207)

August finished at 3/1/1. The August scores (max is 12.0) combined with two earlier scores are shown here: FORECASTER _________ June __ July __ August ___ TOTAL (max 22) Ineedsnow ____________ 2.5 __ 5.5 ___ 12.0 _____ 20.0 NCforecaster89 _________3.5 __ 5.5 ___ 11.0 _____ 20.0 yotaman ______________ 3.5 __ 5.5 ___ 11.0 _____ 20.0 __ NHC, CSU, consensus _ 3.5 __ 5.5 ___ 11.0 _____ 20.0 yoda _________________ 3.5 __ 6.0 ___ 10.0 _____ 19.5 hlcater ________________3.5 __ 6.0 ___ 10.0 _____ 19.5 cyclonic fury ___________ 4.0 __ 5.5 ___ 10.0 _____ 19.5 stormlover74 ___________4.0 __ 5.0 ___ 10.0 _____ 19.0 North Arlington 101 _____ 3.5 __ 4.5 ___ 11.0 _____ 19.0 __ Contest normal ______ 3.5 __ 5.5 ___ 10.0 _____ 19.0 Julian Colton ___________ 4.0 __ 5.5 ____ 9.0 _____ 18.5 snowlover2 ____________ 3.5 __ 4.0 ___ 11.0 _____ 18.5 Stebo _________________ 3.5 __ 4.0 ___ 11.0 _____ 18.5 A few Univ b n __________3.5 __ 5.5 ____ 9.0 _____ 18.0 Roger Smith ___________ 3.0 __ 6.0 ____ 8.0 _____ 17.0 RJay __________________3.5 __ 5.5 ____ 8.0 _____ 17.0 ____________________________________________________________ Ineedsnow had the only perfect forecast for August but most of the others were fairly close and lost only one or two of the possible scoring points. The seasonal contest is still highly dependent on what happens this month and to some extent in October.

+2.4 _ +2.0 _ +3.3 ___ +0.8 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +2.2 _ +2.4 _ +3.6

We may not know what happened in FL with Dorian until Hallowe'en (on some devices, my laptop continues to zoom along at jet stream speeds).

Make a note or enter early as the Labor Day weekend will be just getting underway ... it's the usual forecast challenge ... anomalies (vs 1981-2010 normals) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

<<<<< ===== ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan-Aug 2019 ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>> A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL RodneyS ________________ 537 _638 _585__1760 __542 _516 _654__1712__3472__557 _528 _508__ 1593___5065 ___ Consensus ___________595_ 676 _576 __1847__522 _492 _630 __1644 __3491 __ 473 _522 _478 __1473 ___4964 DonSutherland.1 __________533 _662 _501 __1696 __504 _492 _646 __1642 __ 3338 __ 487 _560_ 518__1565___ 4903 wxdude64 _______________565 _641 _547 __1753 __565_446 _613 __1624 __ 3377 __ 486 _509 _477 __1472____4849 wxallannj ________________588 _598 _600__1786 __442 _534 _604 __1580 __ 3366 __ 432 _528 _476 __1436____4802 hudsonvalley21 ___________537 _676 _604__1817 __484 _534 _628 __1646 __3463 __ 355 _522 _454 __1331 ____4794 Roger Smith _____________ 600 _576 _538 __1714 __442 _460 _576 __1478 __3192 __ 571 _484 _490 __1545 ____4737 BKViking ________________ 597 _645 _578 __1820 __479 _446 _583 __1508 __3328 __ 416 _466 _465 __1347 ____4675 Scotty Lightning ___________525 _620 _555 __1700 __474 _518 _602 __1594 __3294 __ 362 _470 _404 __1236 ____4530 Tom ____________________483 _609 _483 __1575 __ 528 _382 _602 __1512 __3087 __365 _514 _447 __1326 ____4413 ___ Normal ______________ 402 _640 _490 __1532 __502 _360 _600 __1462 __2994 __ 341 _515 _341__1197 ____4191 Stebo (4/8) ______________ 283 _327 _310 __ 920 __242 _219 _275 __ 736 __ 1656 __ 227 _217 _125 ___ 569 ___ 2225 RJay (4/8) _______________ 162 _246 _216 __ 624 __256 _185 _288 __ 729 __ 1353 __ 263 _279 _188 ___ 730 ___ 2083 tplbge (1/8) ______________ 90 __ 94 __ 78 __ 262 __ 46 __ 80 _100 __ 226 ___ 492 ___72 __ 88 __32 __ 192 ____684 smerby (1/8) ______________94 __ 78 __ 48 __ 220 __ 22 __ 90 _100 __ 212 ___432 ___50 __ 82 __ 96 __ 228 ____660 Jakkelwx (1/8) ____________ 92 __ 68 __ 30 __ 190 __ 50 __ 82 __ 68 __ 200 ___390___ 80 __ 90 __ 88 __ 258 ____648 _______________________________________________________________________ Best scores in each category _ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e) as well as all nine). _ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above. _ July best scores with * are regular forecaster high scores, wxdude64 for IAH (Smerby, con as shown for IAH), and BKV, wxallannj for PHX (jakkelwx higher) also ___ Tom for west total (jakkelwx higher). FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine RodneyS _______________ 1 ___1 ___1 ___ 3 ___ 3 ___1 ___1 ___ 3___ 2 ___ 2 ___1 ___1 ___ 2 ____ 2 _ APR,MAY ___Consensus ___________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 DonSutherland.1 _________0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___1 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 0 wxdude64 ______________ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___0 ___1*___2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___1 ___2 ___ 1 ____ 2 __ MAR, JUN wxallannj _______________1 ___2 ___1 ___ 1___ 0 ___2 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1*___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 hudsonvalley21 __________1 ___3 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ JAN Roger Smith ____________ 4 ___0 ___1 ___ 3 ___ 2 ___3 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 3 ___2 ___1 ___ 2 ____ 1 __ JUL BKViking _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1*___0 ___0 ____ 0 Scotty Lighning __________1 ___1 ___2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 __ AUG Tom ___________________0 ___2 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1* ___ 0 ___ Normal _____________ 1 ___3 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ FEB RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 smerby _________________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 jakkelwx ________________0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 0 __________________________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts  STANDINGS to date in 2019 Roger Smith _________16-5 RodneyS ____________ 9-4 DonSutherland1 ______ 7-0 wxallannj ____________7-2 Scotty Lightning ______ 6-0 hudsonvalley21 _______4-0 Normal __________ 4-1 Stebo ______________ 3-1 wxdude64 ___________3-0 BKViking ____________ 2-0*^ Tom _______________ 2-1 RJay _______________ 1-0 tplbge ______________ 1-0 Jakkelwx ____________ 1-0 *retained if Jakkelwx plays fewer than three. ^ no decision for BOS, SEA in Aug (highest raw score reduced by late penalty) ______________________________________________________________________________

As of now my mainframe performance is about 0.1 on the 10 point scale, laptop is about a 9. Wondering then if that means the laptop has installed some upgrade on a graphics program in use, while the mainframe has not. Anyway, unworkable for my contest files on mainframe, going along fine on laptop.

Final scoring for August 2019 FORECASTER _______________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west ___TOTAL (all nine) Scotty Lightning _____________80 _ 86_ 80 __ 246 __100_ 68 _ 70__ 238__ 484 __ 62 _ 66 _ 60 __ 188 ____ 672 Roger Smith ________________ 90 _ 46 _ 70 __ 206 __ 60 _ 78 _ 64 __ 202 __408 ___ 84 _ 78_100 __ 262 ____ 670 ___ Consensus ______________ 88 _ 82 _ 90 __260 __ 98 _ 52 _ 62 __ 212 __ 472 ___ 62 _ 58 _ 76 __ 196 ____ 668 wxallannj ___________________88 _ 84 _ 88 __ 260 __ 80 _ 46 _ 52 __ 178 __ 438 ___ 66 _ 62 _ 84 __ 212 ____ 650 hudsonvalley21 ______________92 _ 68 _ 98 __ 258 __ 98 _ 62 _ 66 __ 226 __ 484 ___ 38 _ 52 _ 76 __ 166 ____ 650 __ BKViking ___ (-8%) _______ 98 _ 62 _ 98 __ 258 __ 90 _ 54 _ 70 __ 214 __ 472 ___ 78 _ 56 _ 98 __ 232 _704 BKViking _______ (-8%) ______ 90 _ 57 _ 90 __ 237 __ 83 _ 50 _ 64 __ 197 __ 434 ___ 72 _ 52 _ 90 __ 214 ____ 648 wxdude64 __________________ 84 _ 82 _ 90 __ 256 __ 88 _ 52 _ 62 __ 202 __ 458 ___ 50 _ 58 _ 78 __ 186 ____ 644 RodneyS ___________________ 72 _ 84 _ 90 __ 246 __ 98 _ 32 _ 52 __ 182 __ 428 ___ 62 _ 56 _ 56 __ 174 ____ 602 Tom _______________________82 _ 86 _78 __ 246 __ 86 _ 50 _ 50 __ 186 __ 432 ___ 32 _ 66 _ 72 __ 170 ____ 602 DonSutherland1 _____________ 88 _ 82 _ 78 __ 248 __ 94 _ 48 _ 50 __ 192 __ 440 ___ 36 _ 42 _ 70 __ 148 ____ 588 ___ Normal _________________60 _ 96 _ 60 __ 216 __ 90 _ 40 _ 40 __ 170 __ 386 ___ 42 _ 34 _ 40 __ 116 ____ 502 ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts DCA _ at +2.0, a win for hudsonvalley21 (+2.1) and a loss for Roger Smith (+2.5) . NYC _ at +0.3, a win for coldest forecasts Scotty Lightning and Tom, also Normal. BOS _ at +2.0, a win for hudsonvalley21 and a loss for Roger Smith, also a "no decision" for BKViking. ORD _ at +0.5, not an extreme forecast. ATL _ at +3.2, a win for Roger Smith (high forecast, +2.0). IAH _ at +3.0, a win for Scotty Lightning and a "no decision" for BKViking (tied before late penalty reduced score). DEN _ at +2.9, a win for Roger Smith(+3.7) PHX _ at +3.3, a win for Roger Smith (+2.1). SEA _ at +3.0, a win for Roger Smith.

Have noticed similar problems, site access is poor on my mainframe but better on laptop which has newer Windows installed.

Scoring for seasonal max 2019 (to date) wxallannj ___________________ 2 __ 1 __ 3 ___ 1 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 1 __ 1 __ 0 _____ 14 RodneyS ___________________ 0 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 0 __ 1 __ 2 ______ 3 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 15 hudsonvalley21 ______________3 __ 5 __ 2 ____ 4 __ 1 __ 0 ______ 1 __ 1 __ 1 _____ 18 DonSutherland1 _____________ 1 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 1 __ 3 __ 1 ______ 3 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 18 BKViking ___________________ 1 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 4 __ 1 __ 3 ______ 1 __ 2 __ 1 _____ 18 Tom _______________________0 __ 4 __ 2 ____ 5 __ 0 __ 1 ______ 2 __ 4 __ 2 _____ 20 wxdude64 __________________3 __ 5 __ 3 ____ 5 __ 1 __ 1 ______ 1 __ 3 __ 0 _____ 22 Scotty Lightning _____________ 3 __ 5 __ 0 ____ 1 __ 1 __ 2 ______ 6 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 22 Roger Smith ________________ 8 __ 9 __ 7 ____ 8 __ 1 __ 2 ______ 3 __ 5 __ 5 _____ 48 Seasonal Max forecasts for 2019 Roger Smith _______________ 107 _ 104 _ 105 __ 103 _ 101 _ 101 __ 104 _ 120 _ 100 wxdude64 _________________ 102 _ 100 _ 101 __ 100 __ 99 _ 104 __ 102 _ 118 __ 95 Scotty Lightning ____________ 102 _ 100 __ 98 ___ 96 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 95 _ 117 __ 93 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 101 _ 100 __ 96 ___ 99 __ 99 _ 103 __ 100 _ 116 __ 94 BKViking __________________ 100 __ 98 __ 96 ___ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 100 _ 117 __ 94 DonSutherland1 _____________100 __ 98 __ 96 ___ 96 __ 98 _ 102 ___ 98 _ 117 __ 93 Tom _______________________99 __ 99 __ 96 ___100 _ 101 _ 102 ___ 99 _ 119 __ 97  RodneyS ___________________ 99 __ 98 __ 96 ___ 95 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 98 _ 116 __ 92 wxallannj ___________________ 97 __ 96 __ 95 ___ 96 __ 98 _ 100 __ 100 _ 116 __ 95

Extending the anomalies and forecasts: ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 8th ____ (7d) ____+2.9 _+1.1 _+2.4 ___ +2.0 _+1.5 _+1.6 ___ +3.2 _+4.0 _+4.7 8th ___ (p14d) ___+2.0 _+0.5 _+1.2 ___ +1.3 _+2.0 _+2.0 ___ +2.2 _+3.0 _+3.3 8th ___ (p24d) ___+1.5 __0.0 _+0.5 ___ +0.2 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 15th __ (14d) ____+2.2 _+0.1 _+2.2 __ +2.3 _+3.8 _ +3.7 ___ +1.9 _+3.1 _+3.5 15th __ (p21d) ___+2.0 _+1.0 _+2.5 __ +2.5 _+3.2 _ +3.1 ___ +2.0 _+3.0 _+3.2 15th __ (p31d) ___+2.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 __ +2.0 _+2.5 _+2.0 ____ +2.0 _+2.5 _+2.5 22nd ___ (21d) ___ +3.5 _+1.4 _+2.4 __ +1.9 _+4.0 _+3.4 ____ +2.6 _+3.3 _+2.7 22nd ___ (p28d) __ +2.0 _+0.8 _+1.5 __ +0.8 _+2.5 _+2.8 ____ +2.5 _+2.5 _+3.0 22nd ___ (p31d) __ +2.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 __ +0.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 ____ +2.5 _+2.5 _+2.5 29th ___ (28d) ___ +2.0 _+0.2 _+1.6 __ +0.7 _+3.3 _+3.2 ____ +2.5 _+3.2 _+2.8 29th ___ (p31d) __ +2.0 _+0.5 _+1.5 __ +0.5 _+2.5 _+3.0 ____ +2.5 _+3.0 _+2.5 final anomalies ___ +2.0 _+0.3 _+2.0 __ +0.5 _+3.1 _+3.0 ____ +2.9 _+3.2 _+3.0 15th _ The past week had an excellent verification of 0.7 deg average error. Trends going forward appear similar to the past week (hot everywhere). 22nd _ The past week improved on verification to 0.5 deg average error. The coming week looks a bit cooler in the east, still hot in the west. 29th _ The weekly verification improved to 0.32 deg. Some changes have been made to end of month estimates. 1st Sept _ Final anomalies are posted, scores adjusted. SEASONAL MAX ____ 99 __ 95 __ 98 ____ 95 __100 __ 103 ____ 101 __ 115 __ 95

July finished 1/1/0 so the scores for June and July look like this ... FORECASTER _____June_ July __ TOTAL Yoda ____________ 3.5 _ 6.0 ___ 9.5 hlcater ___________3.5 _ 6.0 ___ 9.5 cyclonic fury ______ 4.0 _ 5.5 ___ 9.5 Julian Colton ______4.0 _ 5.5 ___ 9.5 stormlover74 ______4.0 _ 5.0 ___ 9.0 Roger Smith ______ 3.0 _ 6.0 ___ 9.0 RJay ____________ 3.5 _ 5.5 ___ 9.0 NCforecaster89 ____3.5 _ 5.5 ___ 9.0 AfewUniv b n _____ 3.5 _ 5.5 ___ 9.0 yotaman _________ 3.5 _ 5.5 ___ 9.0 Normal, NHC, CSU _ 3.5 _ 5.5 ___ 9.0 Consensus _______ 3.5 _ 5.5 ___ 9.0 ineedsnow ________2.5 _ 5.5 ___ 8.0 NorthArlington101 _ 3.5 _ 4.5 ___ 8.0 snowlover2 _______3.5 _ 4.0 ___ 7.5 Stebo ___________ 3.5 _ 4.0 ___ 7.5

Table of forecasts for August 2019 FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Roger Smith ________________ +2.5 _+3.0 _+3.5 ___ +2.5 _+2.0 _+1.2 ___ +3.7 _+2.1 _+3.0 BKViking _____ (-8%) ________ +1.9 _+2.2 _+2.1 ___ +1.0 _+0.8 _+1.5 ___ +1.8 _+1.0 _+2.9 hudsonvalley21 ______________ +1.6 _+1.9 _+1.9 ___ +0.4 _+1.2 _+1.3 ___ --0.2 _+0.8 _+1.8 DonSutherland1 _____________ +1.4 _+1.2 _+0.9 ___ +0.2 _+0.5 _+0.5 ___ --0.3 _+0.3 _+1.5 wxallannj ___________________+1.4 _+1.1 _+1.4 ___ --0.5 _+0.4 _+0.6 ___ +1.2 _+1.3 _+2.2 ___ Consensus ______________ +1.4 _+1.2 _+1.5 ___ +0.4 _+0.7 _+1.1 ___ +1.0 _+1.1 _+1.8 wxdude64 __________________ +1.2 _+1.2 _+1.5 ___ --0.1 _+0.7 _+1.1 ___ +0.4 _+1.1 _+1.9 Tom _______________________+1.1 _+1.0 _+0.9 ___ --0.2 _+0.6 _+0.5 ___ --0.5 _+1.5 _+1.6 Scotty Lightning _____________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 RodneyS ____________________+0.6 _+1.1 _+1.5 ___ +0.6 _--0.3 _+0.6 ___ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.8 ___ Normal ___________________0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 _____ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 (Normal also coldest at DCA, NYC, BOS, IAH, PHX and SEA)

+2.5 _ +3.0 _ +3.5 __ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.2 ___ +3.7 _ +2.1 _ +3.0

<<<<< ===== ----- ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan-July 2019 ----- ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>> A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL RodneyS ________________ 465 _554 _495__1514 __444 _484 _602__1530__3044__495 _472 _452__1419___4463 DonSutherland.1 __________445 _580 _423 __1448 __410 _444 _596 __1450 __ 2898 __ 451 _518_ 448__1417___4315 ___ Consensus ___________507_ 594 _486 __1587__424 _440 _568 __1432 __ 3019 __ 411 _464 _402 __1277 ___4296 wxdude64 _______________481 _559 _457 __1497 __477_394 _551 __1422 __ 2919 __ 436 _451 _399 __1286____4205 wxallannj ________________500 _514 _512 __1526 __362 _488 _552 __1402 __2928 __ 366 _466 _392 __1224 ____4152 hudsonvalley21 ___________445 _608 _506__1559 __386 _472 _562 __1420 __2979 __ 307 _470 _378 __1165 ____4144 Roger Smith _____________ 510 _530 _468 __1508 __382 _382 _512 __1276 __2784 __ 487 _406 _390 __1283 ____4067 BKViking ________________ 507 _588 _488 __1583__396 _396 _519 __1311 __2894 __ 344 _414 _375 __1133 ____4027 Scotty Lightning ___________445 _534 _475 __1454 __374 _450 _532 __1356 __2810 __ 300 _404 _344 __1048 ____3858 Tom ____________________401 _523 _405 __1329 __ 442 _332 _552 __1326 __2655 __333 _448 _375 __1156 ____3811 ___ Normal ______________ 342 _546 _430 __1318 __412 _322 _560 __1294 __2602 __ 299 _479 _301__1079 ____3691 Stebo (4/7) ______________ 283 _327 _310 __ 920 __242 _219 _275 __ 736 __1656 __ 227 _217 _125 ___ 569 ____2225 RJay (4/7) _______________ 162 _246 _216 __ 624 __256 _185 _288 __ 729 __1353 __ 263 _279 _188 ___ 730 ____2083 tplbge (1/7) ______________ 90 __ 94 __ 78 __ 262 __ 46 __ 80 _100 __ 226 ___ 492 ___72 __ 88 __32 __ 192 ____684 smerby (1/7) ______________94 __ 78 __ 48 __ 220 __ 22 __ 90 _100 __ 212 ___432 ___50 __ 82 __ 96 __ 228 ____660 Jakkelwx (1/7) ____________ 92 __ 68 __ 30 __ 190 __ 50 __ 82 __ 68 __ 200 ___390___ 80 __ 90 __ 88 __ 258 ____648 _______________________________________________________________________ Best scores in each category _ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e) as well as all nine). _ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above. _ July best scores with * are regular forecaster high scores, wxdude64 for IAH (Smerby, con as shown for IAH), and BKV, wxallannj for PHX (jakkelwx higher) also ___ Tom for west total (jakkelwx higher). FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine RodneyS _______________ 1 ___1 ___1 ___ 3 ___ 3 ___1 ___1 ___ 3___ 2 ___ 2 ___1 ___1 ___ 2 ____ 2 _ APR,MAY DonSutherland.1 _________0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___1 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 0 ___Consensus ___________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 wxdude64 ______________ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___0 ___1*___2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___1 ___2 ___ 1 ____ 2 __ MAR, JUN wxallannj _______________1 ___2 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___2 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1*___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 hudsonvalley21 __________0 ___3 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ JAN Roger Smith ____________ 4 ___0 ___1 ___ 3 ___ 2 ___2 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ JUL BKViking _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1*___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Scotty Lighning __________1 ___0 ___2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 Tom ___________________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1* ___ 0 ___ Normal _____________ 1 ___2 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ FEB RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 smerby _________________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 jakkelwx ________________0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 0 __________________________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts STANDINGS to date in 2019 Roger Smith _________12-3 RodneyS ____________ 9-4 DonSutherland1 ______ 7-0 wxallannj ____________6-2 Scotty Lightning ______ 4-0 Normal __________ 3-1 Stebo ______________ 3-1 wxdude64 ___________ 3-0 hudsonvalley21 _______3-0 RJay ________________1-0 Tom ________________1-1 tplbge ______________ 1-0 Jakkelwx ____________ 1-0 BKViking ____________ 1-0* *retained if Jakkelwx plays fewer than three. ______________________________________________________________________________

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal values for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA On time deadline for entries is 06z Thursday August 1st. Good luck !!

Final scoring for July 2019 _ fBOS scored by rank order (max score 60) with lowest three scores higher for raw scores as indicated by *. FORECASTER _______________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__ west ___ TOTAL (all nine) Roger Smith ________________98 _ 74 _ 60__ 232 __ 68_ 80 _ 90 __ 238__470__60 _ 84 _ 72 __ 216_____ 686 hudsonvalley21 ______________88 _ 78_ 42 __ 208 __ 52 _ 88 _ 96 __ 236__444__ 66 _ 80 _ 84 __ 230 _____ 674 BKViking ___________________ 92 _ 76 _ 42 __ 210 __ 48 _ 82 _ 92 __ 222__432__ 66 _ 86 _ 88 __ 240 _____ 672 wxallannj __________________ 98_ 78 _ 54 __ 230 __ 46 _ 92 _ 76 __ 214__444__ 48 _ 86 _ 92 __ 226 _____ 670 smerby ____________________ 94 _ 78_ 48 __ 220 __ 22 _ 90 _100__212__432__ 50 _ 82 _ 96 __ 228 _____ 660 ___ Consensus ______________88 _ 68 _ 30 __ 186 __ 46 _ 82 _100__ 228__414__ 62 _ 82 _ 96 __ 240 _____ 654 Jakkelwx ___________________ 92 _ 68 _ 30 __ 190 __ 50 _ 82 _ 68 __ 200__390__ 80_ 90_ 88 __ 258 _____ 648 RodneyS ___________________ 88 _ 62 _ 17*__ 167 __ 42 _ 82 _ 96 __ 220__387__ 58 _ 70_100__ 228 _____ 615 wxdude64 __________________86 _ 64 _ 24 __ 174 __ 34 _ 76 _ 98 __ 208__382__ 56 _ 76 _ 98 __ 230 _____ 612 DonSutherland1 _____________ 78 _ 62 _ 09*__ 149 __ 58 _ 80 _ 96 __ 234__383__ 62 _ 68 _ 94 __ 224 _____ 607 Scotty Lightning _____________ 74 _ 58 _ 07*__ 139 __ 38 _ 90 _ 80 __ 208__347__ 90 _ 82 _ 84 __ 256 _____ 603 ____ Tom __________________ 78 _ 56 _ 24 __ 158 __ 34 _ 90 _ 88 __ 212__370__ 80 _ 84 _ 96 __ 260 _ 630 Tom _______ (-5%) __________74 _ 53 _ 23 __ 150 __ 32 _ 86 _ 84 __ 202__352__ 76 _ 80 _ 91 __ 247 _____ 599 ___ Normal ________________ 54 _ 38 _ 00 __ 092 __ 38 _ 60 _ 90 __ 188__280__ 70 _ 62 _ 64 __ 196 _____ 476 ____________________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts Seven of nine locations qualify with highest forecast(s) also high scores. DCA, BOS and ORD are wins for Roger Smith. Wxallannj shares DCA. NYC is a win for wxallannj, hudsonvalley21 and smerby. ATL is a win for wxallannj. DEN is a win for Scotty Lightning. PHX is a win for jakkelwx, if they enter fewer than three this year, BKViking and wxallannj will add wins (regular participants rule).

98 at BWI yesterday.

Update on anomaly tracker and forecasts, with seasonal MAX values shown. Will link those to contest later this month. ________________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _ 7th ____ (anom) _______ +2.8 _+3.7 _+6.1 __ +4.5 _+3.9 __0.0 ___ --0.3 _+0.4 __0.0 14th _____(anom) _______ +1.4 _+3.0 _+5.5 __ +3.9 _+3.6 _+1.3 ___ +0.4 _+1.5 _+1.4 21st _____ (anom) _______ +2.9 _+3.6 _+6.3 __ +4.8 _+3.4 _+1.5 ___ +1.4 _+2.1 _+1.4 28th _____ (p28d) _______ +2.0 _+2.8 _+4.7 __ +3.8 _+2.3 _+0.4 ___ +1.4 _+2.2 _+1.8 _ 8th ____ (p14d) ________+0.4 _+2.5 _+4.0 __ +2.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 ____ 0.0 _+0.5 _+0.2 15th _____ (p21d) ________+2.7 _+3.7 _+7.0 __ +5.0 _+4.0 _+1.5 ___ +1.5 _+2.3 _+1.0 22nd _____ (p28d) _______ +1.8 _+2.2 _+4.5 __ +4.0 _+2.1 _+0.5 ___ +1.0 _+1.3 _+2.2 _ 8th ____ (p24d) ________+1.0 _+2.0 _+2.5 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+0.7 _+0.4 15th _____ (p31d) ________+1.5 _+2.0 _+4.0 __ +3.0 _+2.3 _+0.5 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+1.5 22nd _____ (p31d) _______ +2.2 _+2.0 _+4.0 __ +3.5 _+1.6 _+0.5 ___ +1.5 _+1.4 _+1.9 29th _____ (p31d) _______ +2.2 _+3.0 _+4.0 __ +3.5 _+2.1 _+0.5 ___ +1.5 _+1.9 _+1.9 1 Aug __ final anomalies __ +2.3 _+3.1 _+5.3 __ +3.1 _+2.0 _+0.5 ___ +1.5 _+1.9 _+1.8 MAX to date ______________ 99 __ 95 __ 98 ____ 95 __ 95 __ 97 _____101 __ 115 __ 95 _____________________________________ 15th _ Predictions for past week assessed as medium with average error (compare red lines) 1.03 deg. Next week looking hot in most areas except SEA. The end of month projections carry low confidence as GFS introduces considerably cooler regime to central and eastern US and have estimated -1 anomalies for 22nd-31st for eastern locations, continued heat in west (warmer end of month for SEA). Will post some preliminary scoring if these late cooling trends appear to be holding after a few more days. Otherwise the actuals could end up well above most forecasts. ... edit 16th, PHX new max of 114 on 15th. 17th _ PHX edged up to 115, NYC tied previous max of 91, on 16th. 18th _ NYC moved up to 93 on 17th. DEN prelim high of 99 on 18th. 19th _ DEN moved up to 101 today. 20th _ DCA, NYC, BOS and ORD all moved up in seasonal max today. 21st _ DCA and BOS moved up again today. 22nd _ The previous week forecast had the highest accuracy rating I can recall, average error only 0.28 deg F. The coming week looks a bit cooler than average in many of the locations which will bring the anomalies down towards the high end of our forecast range. It seems that IAH will come in near the low end, so all nine stations could be in play for an extreme forecast. Scoring will be adjusted from the values posted yesterday as some provisionals are now well above high forecast, notably BOS and ORD. 29th _ Some problems with the data base at NWS for BOS, ORD and DEN, could not update their anomalies this morning, but now updated. Have adjusted NYC, ATL and PHX provisionals. All appear to be headed higher than high forecast now so this generally reduces all scores by the same amount (except that Tom with late penalties drops less). BOS may be headed for max-60 scoring (rank ordered, at the moment there is a raw 60, if the max slips below that, we go to best of rank order scoring or raw scores, whichever higher -- with eleven forecasts, this will be 60, 54, 48, 42, 36, 30, 24, 18, 12, 6, 0 but looks like lower ones would be raw scores in that case so higher than the progression). This could also happen at ORD. 1st __ Final anomalies posted, scoring updated by noon EDT.

Have the feeling that late July and August will be hotter than we've seen so far.