Roger Smith

This is sort of like the Brooks Koepka - Bryson de Chambeau thing applied to meteorology. Mind you I am a bit of a Jean van de Velde this year.

2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Forecast Contest ______________________________________ Table of forecasts FORECASTER ______________ NS _ Hur _ Maj Brentrich ___________________27 __ 11 __ 7 cptcatz ____________________ 24 __ 13 __ 6 ColdRainLover _____________ 23 __ 11 __ 5 SnowenOutThere __________ 23 __ 11 __ 4 NorthHillsWx _______________ 23 __ 9 __ 4 RJay _______________________ 22 __ 12 __ 5 wxdude64 _________________ 22 __ 10 __ 5 Prospero ___________________ 21 __ 11 __ 4 Yoda _______________________ 21 __ 10 __ 6 WxWatcher007 ____________ 21 __ 10 __ 5 LakeNormanStormin _______ 21 __ 10 __ 4 IntenseWind002 ___________ 21 ___ 9 __ 4 Runman292 ________________20 __ 12 __ 6 yotaman ___________________ 20 __ 11 __ 4 Roger Smith _______________ 20 __ 10 __ 3 DonSutherland1 ____________20 __ 9 __ 5 Cat Lady ___________________ 20 __ 9 __ 3 Daniel Boone _______________19 __ 11 __ 5 Wannabehippie ____________ 19 __ 10 __ 3 ___ Contest mean __________ 19 __ 9 __ 4 ineedsnow __________________19 __ 8 __ 5 NCForecaster89 ____________19 __ 8 __ 4 GaWx _______________________18 __ 9 __ 5 jaxjagman __________________ 18 __ 9 __ 4 "Expert consensus" _________18 __ 8 __ 4 snowlover2 _________________ 18 __ 8 __ 3 StormchaserChuck! ________ 17 __ 11 __ 4 cnimbus ____________________ 17 __ 7 __ 3 tplbge ______________________ 17 __ 6 __ 3 Torch Tiger _________________ 16 __ 8 __ 3 cheese007 __________________15 __ 7 __ 2 Hotair _______________________13 __ 6 __ 2 Ed Snow & Hurricane Fan ____9 __ 4 __ 1 ____________________________________ 31 entries so far, and the "expert consensus" -- you can enter this contest today (June 3) but then the table is set. Posted a bit early just so that any late entries will find it easier to pick a unique set of numbers (picking a set already taken means you would automatically finish behind that earlier entry in the rankings). You can pick the expert consensus though, they are scored but not ranked in the contest other than to note where they would have finished had they been an actual contest forecaster. The "contest means" shown are rounded off, the decimal versions are currently 19.4 _ 9.3 _ 4.1 (these do not include the expert consensus although they could without any significant changes.) SCORING _ As in past year, the error factor for named storms is 50% as big as the factor for hurricanes and majors. The basic concept is, you start with 100 points, then lose points from this formula: H and M errors are deducted from the formula (E + E^2)/2 ... error plus error squared, divided by 2. For example, your prediction of H and M is 10 4 and the end of season count is 12 5. Your H error is 2, the deduction is (2 + 4) /2 or 3. Your M error is 1, your deduction is 1. So far then you are reduced to 96 points (100-3-1). The deduction for named storm errors is calculated the same way, then half of that calculation is applied. So to continue with the same example, if your forecast had been 22 10 4 and the season count turned out to be 19 12 5, then your named storm error is 3 and your deduction is half of (3 + 9) / 2 or half of 6 which is 3, so your total score is 93 (100-3-3-1). If you do enter between now and end of the day Friday June 3rd, I will adjust the contest means and any other information as required. If you have a forecast entered and want to edit it, let me know. In the absence of further changes, bring on the 2022 season and we'll see how we do.

Snowfall Forecast Contest Departures (errors) _ Probable Final Results (season ends June 30th) This table will track the departures of each forecaster, those which are in italics and underlined are forecasts already passed by actual amounts; those departures (errors) can only increase with more snow. All other departures (errors) can be reduced by new snowfalls. The actual snowfalls are the latest available for each station. A reminder, our contest is based on total winter snowfall, not any portion such as Dec to Mar, so it includes anything that might fall in April and May. The table is now in order of least total departures. _________________________________ DCA __NYC __BOS ___ ORD __DTW __BUF __ DEN __SEA __BTV ___ Total dep (to date -- May 31) _____________ 13.2 __ 17.9 __ 54.0 ___ 32.8 __ 47.1 ___ 97.4 __49.4 __ 9.2 __70.7 RodneyS ________________________ 12.8 __ 25.0 __ 45.0 __ 54.0 __ 42.0 __ 91.0 __ 48.0 __12.0 __ 75.0 RodneyS _________________________ 0.4 ___ 7.1 ____ 9.0 ___ 21.2 ___ 5.1 ____ 6.4 ___ 1.4 __ 2.8 ___ 4.3 ______ 57.7 Roger Smith ______________________17.5 __ 32.5 __ 50.7 __ 44.8 __ 49.5 __107.2 __ 52.0 __10.5__ 82.2 Roger Smith ______________________ 4.3 __ 14.6____ 3.3 __ 12.0 ___ 2.4____ 9.8 ___ 2.6 ___ 1.3 __ 11.5 ______ 61.8 DonSutherland 1 __________________9.4 __ 27.3 __ 44.9 __ 35.1 __ 28.3 __ 84.0 __ 43.4 __ 9.5 __ 71.5 DonSutherland 1 __________________3.8 ___ 9.4 ___ 9.1 ____ 2.3 __ 18.8 ___13.4 ___ 6.0 __ 0.3 ___ 0.8 ______ 63.9 RJay _____________________________ 5.0 __ 20.0 __ 42.0 __ 40.0 __ 34.0 __ 90.0 __ 50.0 __13.0 __100.0 RJay _____________________________ 8.2 ____ 2.1 __ 12.0 ____ 7.2___13.1 ____ 7.4 ___ 0.6 ___ 3.8 __ 29.3 _____ 83.7 wxallannj ________________________12.0 __ 28.0 __ 36.0 __ 38.0 __ 36.0 __ 92.0 __ 41.0 __ 11.0 __ 95.0 wxallannj ________________________ 1. 2 __ 10.1 ___ 18.0 ___ 5.2 ___ 11.1 ___ 5.4 ____8.4 ___1.8 __ 24.3 ______ 85.5 hudsonvalley21 __________________11.6 __ 30.3 __ 33.8 __ 32.7 __ 32.4 __ 94.0 __ 45.0 __10.2 __108.8 hudsonvalley21 __________________ 1.6 __ 12.4 __ 20.2 ____ 0.1 ___14.7 ____3.4 ____4.4 ___ 1.0 ___ 38.1 ______95.9 so_whats_happening _____________16.0 __ 34.0 __ 62.0 __ 41.0 __ 45.0 __ 74.0 __ 36.0 __11.0 __ 91.0 so_whats_happening ______________2.8 __ 16.1 ____ 8.0 ___ 8.2 ____2.1 __ 23.4 ___ 13.4 ___1.8 __ 20.3 ______ 96.1 wxdude64 _______________________20.0 __ 38.0 __ 54.0 __ 52.0 __ 47.0 __104.0__ 58.0 __13.0 __105.0 wxdude64 ________________________ 6.8 __ 20.1 ____0.0 __ 19.2 ____ 0.1 ___ 6.6 ___ 8.6 ___3.8 __ 34.3 _____ 100.5 Tom ______________________________17.7 __ 36.9 __ 46.1 __ 48.7 __ 47.8 __ 94.4 __ 65.2 __ 8.1 __102.2 Tom ______________________________ 4.5 __ 19.0 ___ 7.9 ___ 15.9 ___ 0.7 ___ 3.0 ___ 15.8 ___1.1 ___ 31.5 ______ 101.4 BKViking _________________________ 8.0 __ 28.0 __ 42.0 __ 44.0 __ 25.0 __ 88.0 __ 55.0 __22.0__ 85.0 BKViking _________________________ 5.2 ___ 10.1 ___12.0 __ 11.2 __ 22.1 ____ 9.4 ____ 5.6 __12.8 __ 14.3 _____ 102.7 Deformation Zone ________________ 8.0 __ 18.0 __ 36.0 __ 38.0 __ 44.0 __ 70.0 __ 24.0 __ 4.0 __ 86.0 Deformation Zone ________________ 5.2 ____ 0.1 __ 18.0 ____5.2 ___ 3.1 ___ 27.4 __ 25.4 __ 5.2 __ 15.3 _____ 104.9 Scotty Lightning _________________10.0 __ 23.0 __ 38.0 __ 44.0 __ 38.0 __106.0 __ 49.0 __ 7.0 __129.0 Scotty Lightning _________________ 3.2 ___ 5.1 ____16.0 __ 11.2 ____ 9.1 ____ 8.6 ___ 0.4 ___ 2.2 __ 58.3 ______ 114.1 mean of forecasts _______________12.3 __ 28.4 __ 44.2 ___ 42.7 __ 39.1 __ 91.2 __ 47.2 __10.9 __ 94.2 mean of forecasts _______________ 0.9 __ 10.5 ____ 9.8 ____ 9.9 ____8.0 ___ 6.2 ___ 2.4 ___ 1.7 ___23.5 _______ 72.9 (3rd-4th) ==================================== These departures will continue to be updated but as of May 31st the contest is probably finished. Congrats to RodneyS -- a little more snow at DEN and I could have taken this one.

Thanks, will be updating my files later today to check for any recent record or near-record weeks. The only value added to the tables was a third place mean max of 55.86F for the week of Feb 17-23. No other top three values spotted in any categories since new years. Have fixed that typo where 1953 appeared instead of 1954.

Just starting to work on the table of entries for posting tomorrow, further entries are okay until 18z Friday, so are edits but check my table if you make a really late edit as I may have gone past your entry by then.

Four Seasons contest __ spring 2022 portion _ Mar 2022, Apr 2022, May 2022 The table is arranged in order of total points for the first half of the four seasons contest. ____________________________WINTER ____ Winter ______ SPRING __ Spring FORECASTER ______________ TOTAL _____ Points ______ TOTAL ___ Points ___ Contest Total Don Sutherland 1 ____________1623 _______ 10 __________ 1962 _______ 7 _______ 17 RodneyS ____________________ 1600 _______ 7 ___________ 1868 ______ 5 _______ 12 Tom _________________________1309 ________ 1 ___________1973 ______ 10 _______ 11 __ Consensus _______________ 1513 _______ 3.5__________ 1865 _______4.9 ______ 8.4 wxdude64 __________________ 1535 _______ 4 ___________ 1820 _______ 4 ________8 RJay ________________________ 1351 _______ 1 ___________ 1952 _______ 6 ________ 7 wxallannj ____________________1572 _______ 6 ___________ 1646 _______ 1 ________ 7 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 1540 _______ 5 ___________ 1692 _______ 1 ________ 6 so_whats_happening ________ 1499 _______ 3 ___________1770 ________3 ________ 6 BKViking ____________________ 1467 ________2 ___________1762 ________2 ________ 4 __Normal ____________________ 1173 ________ 1 ___________1630 ________1 ________ 2 Scotty Lightning _____________ 1138 _______ 1 ___________1750 ________ 1 ________ 2 Roger Smith _________________ 1043 _______ 1 ___________1413 _________1 ________ 2 Stormchaser Chuck __________ 674 (1/3) ___ 0 __________ 1117 (2/3) ___1 ________ 1 Deformation Zone ____________430 (1/3) ___ 0 _______________ -- -- ____ 0 ============================================ Scoring is based on 10 for first place, 7 for second, down to 2 points for 7th and 1 point for anyone else who entered at least 2/3 of contests. Consensus and Normal can score decimal points if their totals are between two forecaster totals 2 to 10, and the decimal is based on the position relative to those forecasters.

Table of forecasts for June 2022 FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Stormchaser Chuck! ____ +3.2 _+3.2_+2.4 ___+1.5 _+2.0 _+0.5 ___+3.3 _+3.2 _+2.1 wxdude64 ______________ +2.2 _+2.3_+1.8 ___+0.9 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___+2.4 _+2.6 _+1.2 so_whats_happening ____+2.1 _+1.9 _+1.6 ___+0.6 _+1.1 _+0.8 ___ +1.3 _+2.4 _+0.4 wxallannj ________________+1.2 _+1.4 _+1.6 ___+0.5 _+1.2_+1.8 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _-0.5 BKViking ________________ +1.2 _+1.0 _+1.1 ___+0.7 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +1.8 _+1.8 _+1.2 Tom _____________________+1.1 _+1.2 _+0.9 ___+0.2 _+0.9_+0.5 ___+0.5 _+0.7 _-0.2 ___ Consensus ___________+1.1 _+1.1 _+1.0 ___ +0.4 _+1.2 _+1.2 ___+1.3 _+2.2 _+0.2 RodneyS ________________ +1.1 _ +1.1 _ -0.1 ___-1.9 _+1.4 _+1.4 ___ +0.6 _+1.4 __ 0.0 Scotty Lightning ________ +1.0 _+1.0 _ +1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 ___+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 RJay _______ (-1%) _______ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___-1.0 _+1.0 _+2.0 ___+1.5 _+2.5 _+1.0 Roger Smith _____________ +0.7 _+0.4 _-0.1 __ -0.3 _+1.4 _+2.8 ___+0.5 _+3.4 _-0.5 hudsonvalley21 __________ +0.6 _+0.6 _+0.2 __+0.1 _+0.4 _+0.7 ___+1.3 _+2.4 __0.0 DonSutherland1 __________ +0.3 _+0.7 _+0.8 __-0.8 _+0.1 _+0.4 ___+0.2 _+2.0 _-0.3 ___ Normal ________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0 ======================================== Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded; Normal is colder than all forecasts at DCA, NYC, ATL, IAH, DEN, PHX. Table of forecasts for Summer Max 2022 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Roger Smith ______________ 104 __ 103 __ 101 ___ 98 __ 102 _ 108 __ 105 _ 119 __ 95 Scotty Lightning __________104 __ 101 ___ 99 ___ 97 __ 105 _ 110 ____ 97 _ 121 __ 90 DonSutherland1 __________ 104 __ 100 __ 101 ___100 ___ 99 _ 105 __ 100 _ 118 __ 92 so_whats_happening _____ 102 __ 101 ___ 99 ___ 97 __ 100 _ 102 __ 103 _ 121 __ 93 RJay ______________________102 ___99 ___ 99 ___ 99 __ 100 _ 105 __ 101 _ 119 __ 95 wxdude64 ________________ 102 ___99 ___ 98 ___ 99 __ 101 _ 106 ___ 99 _ 119 __ 93 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 101 __ 100 ___ 98 ___ 99 __ 100 _ 106 ___ 99 _ 119 __ 93 BKViking __________________ 100 ___99 ___ 97 ___ 99 __ 100 _ 101 __ 100 _ 119 __ 94 Tom ________________________99 ___99 ___ 97 ___102 __ 102 _ 107 ___ 97 _ 121 __ 97 RodneyS ___________________ 98 ___98 ___ 97 ___ 97 __ 100 _ 102 __ 102 _ 119 __ 93 wxallannj ___________________98 ___97 ___ 96 ___ 97 ___ 98 _ 100 ___ 96 _ 118 __ 92 Consensus (means) ________101 __100 ___ 98 ___ 99 __ 101 _ 105 __ 100 _ 119 __ 93

___<<< ____________ Annual Scoring Report (Jan-May 2022) _______________>>>___ Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type. With most scores fairly similar in May, there was only one set of changes in ranks; wxallannj dropped from third to eighth, so those who had been fourth to eighth after April are now third to seventh. Normal dropped two spaces as well with both RJay and Scotty Lightning moving ahead, so that Normal is now between 10th and 11th, and also there is a prorated score for Stormchaser Chuck (2985), based on 5/3 times actual score, and with that he would be around the same total as our fourth ranked total. Consensus is now just ahead of third place Tom. FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west __ TOTAL wxdude64 ______________ 343 _389 _419 __1151__299 _383_ 262__944 _2095 __310 _388 _327 __1025 ____3120 DonSutherland1 _________ 364 _370 _388 __1122 __370 _346 _192__908 _2030 __318 _400 _340 __1058 ____3088 ___ Consensus ___________344 _362 _358 __1064__294 _368 _228__890 _1954__342 _398 _319 __1059 ____3013 Tom _____________________347 _357 _323 __1027__312 _359 _339__1010 _2037 __379 _367 _226 __972 ____3009 so_whats_happening ____ 316 _348 _396 __1060__301 _362_ 236 __899 _1959 __292 _396 _342 __1030____2989 RodneyS _________________320 _316 _312 __ 948 __248 _366 _270 __884 _1832 __396 _404 _318 __1118____2950 BKViking _________________344 _350 _334 __1028__270 _344 _198 __812 _1840 __332 _380 _304 __1016____2856 hudsonvalley21 __________300 _336 _360 __ 996 __276 _348 _254 __878 _1874 __298 _378 _298 __974____2848 wxallannj ________________288 _300 _326 __ 914 __272 _326 _226 __824 _1738 __362 _394 _324 __1080____2818 RJay _____________________341 _363 _339___1043__339 _351 _211 __ 901 _ 1944 __ 293 _ 317 _248 __858____2802 Scotty Lightning _________300 _330 _340 __ 970 __212 _326 _234 __ 772 _ 1742 __ 324 _386 _238 __948____2690 _____ Normal _____________296 _318 _290 __ 904 __230 _326 _254 __810 _ 1714 __348 _352 _264 __964 ____2678 Roger Smith ______________220 _228 _138 __ 586 __162 _ 234 _184 __580 __1166 __ 354 _368 _317 __1039____2205 Stormchaser Chuck (3/5) _256 _266 _235 __ 757 __162 _ 260 _154 __ 576 __1333 __ 138 _197 _123 __ 458 ____1791 __ prorated Stormchaser Chuck would compare at 2985 total points. =========================================== Best Forecasts _ * tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with three others (Mar). (Bos and regions not entered yet) FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total wxdude64 _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Jan DonSutherland1 __________ 2^___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____3 ____ 1 ____ 2 __ Feb,May ___ Consensus ___________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Tom ______________________ 1^___ 1 ___ 1 ____2 ____0 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Mar so_whats_happening _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*____ 0 RodneyS _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 BKViking _________________ 2^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 hudsonvalley21 __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1*____ 0 wxallannj ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 RJay ______________________ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Apr Scotty Lightning __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ Normal ________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 Roger Smith _______________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 Stormchaser Chuck _______ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 0 ========================= EXTREME FORECAST SCORING (second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred three times, once for SEA in Feb, once for IAH in Apr and once for DEN in May.) (in March, four shared a win for DCA shown by ^ -- this counts as 0.25 in the second bracketed total). (wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them _ Normal is not charged with a loss _ would have done so in April for DEN) So far, 32 of 45 forecasts qualify, 13 warmest and 19 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, Mar 2-2, Apr 3-6, May 4-2. FORECASTER ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May __TOTAL (adj for ties) Roger Smith ______________ --- _ 1- 1 _ 2-0 _5-1_ --- __ 8-2 DonSutherland1 __________ --- _ 4-0*_ 1-0^_1-0_ 1-0 __ 7-0 (5.75 - 0) Tom ______________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 2-0^_1-0_ 1-0*__ 6-0 (4.75 - 0) Stormchaser Chuck _______ 2-1 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 3-0 __ 5-1 wxdude64 ________________1-0 _ 3-0*_ --- _ ---_ --- __ 4-0 (3.5 - 0) RJay ______________________ --- _ --- _ 1-0^_ 1-0*_--- _ 2-0 (0.75 - 0) so_whats_happening ______ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ ---__ 2-0 ____ Normal _______________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- __ 2-0 RodneyS __________________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2-0*__ 3-0 (2.5 -1) hudsonvalley21 ___________ --- _ --- _ --- _ 1-1* _ --- __ 1-1 (0.5 - 1) BKViking __________________ --- _ --- _ 1-0^_ --- _ --- __ 1-0 (0.25 - 0) Scotty Lightning __________ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ --- __ 0-0 wxallannj __________________--- _ --- _ 0-1 _ --- _ --- __ 0-1 ===============================

Thanks for your entries. With the appearance of this table of forecasts, the contest is now officially closed to further entries and we'll see what happens. Forecasts are listed from top to lowest temperatures, DCA then each successive station to break ties. The number in brackets is your order of entry which may be needed to break ties. ___ <<< SUMMER MAXIMUM CONTEST __ 2022 >>> ___ FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC George BM _ (22) _________ 108 _ 109 _ 110 _ 110 Roger Smith _ (20) ________ 104 _ 106 _ 105 _ 107 StormchaserChuck! (4) ___ 103 _ 102 _ 101 _ 101 PrinceFrederickWx _(3) ___ 102 _ 100 _ 104 _ 103 yoda __ (23) _______________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 102 wxdude64 _ (18) __________101 _ 100 _ 102 _ 104 Rhino16 _ (12) _____________101 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 HighStakes _ (26) _________101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 102 CAPE __ (24) ______________101 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 NorthArlington101 _(1) ____101 __ 98 __ 99 _ 102 mattie g _ (16) ____________100 _ 103 _ 102 _ 102 RickinBaltimore (14) ______100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 102 nw baltimore wx (15) _____100 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 WxUSAF __ (27) __________100 __ 99 _ 102 _ 102 87storms _ (7) ___________ 100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 WinterWxLuvr (9) ________ 100 __ 98 __99 __ 99 nj2va ___ (8) _______________99 _ 101 _ 101 _ 103 biodhokie _ (6) ____________99 _ 101 _ 100 _ 100 peribonca _ (2) ____________99 _ 100 _ 102 _ 101 GramaxRefugee _ (5) _____ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 Eskimo Joe _ (10) _________ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 toolsheds _ (13) ___________99 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 WxWatcher007 _ (25) _____99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 Weather53 _ (17) __________99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 Wxdavis5784 _ (11) ________98 _ 101 _ 103 _ 102 tplbge _ (19) _______________98 _ 100 __ 99 __ 99 LittleVillageWx _ (21) ______ 98 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 _________________ ____________________ (current as of July 22) _____ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 98 (when recorded) _________ 6/17 _ 8/04 _ 8/04 _7/21* * tied 7/24 Contest means __________100.4_ 100.5_ 101.3_ 101.9

+0.7 __ +0.4 __ -0.1 __ -0.3 __ +1.4 _ +2.8 ___ +0.5 _ +3.4 _ -0.5 104 ___ 103 ___ 101 ___ 98 ___ 102 __ 108 ____ 105 __ 119 __ 95

Thanks for all the entries, will be making up a table of entries in the next two or three days. Will informally extend the deadline to 18z June 3rd which is when I expect to have this table ready, if any somewhat late entrants want to join in, or anyone already posting wants to edit, go ahead, I won't be making copies of forecasts until the table is ready. Here are some "official" forecasts that will be scored but not ranked in the contest. NHC _____ 17.5 _ 8 _ 4.5 (median of 14 6 3 and 21 10 6) CSU _____ 19 _ 9 _ 4 (median of 13 6 2 and 16 8 3) TWC _____ 20 _ 8 _ 4 TSR ______ 18 _ 8 _ 4 UKMO ____ 18 _ 9 _ 4 (there are others listed on wikipedia, all in a similar range) The "expert consensus" will be the only one listed in the table of entries, that will be 18 _ 8 _ 4 which is close to all of the above. Storm names available for 2022: Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Martin, Nicole, Owen, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobias, Virginie, Walter. There has been no activity yet. In the eastern Pacific theater, Agatha (cat-2) has come and gone, making landfall west of Puerto Angel, Mexico on May 30th.

Just dropping by the regional forums to let everyone know there's a seasonal hurricane forecast contest open here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/57386-2022-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-_-enter-by-june-1st/?tab=comments#comment-6537694 Deadline is Wed June 1st.

Just dropping by the regional forums to let everyone know there's a seasonal hurricane forecast contest open here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/57386-2022-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-_-enter-by-june-1st/?tab=comments#comment-6537694 Deadline is Wed June 1st.

Just dropping by the regional forums to let everyone know there's a seasonal hurricane forecast contest open here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/57386-2022-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-_-enter-by-june-1st/?tab=comments#comment-6537694 Deadline is Wed June 1st.

Just dropping by the regional forums to let everyone know there's a seasonal hurricane forecast contest open here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/57386-2022-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-_-enter-by-june-1st/?tab=comments#comment-6537694 Deadline is Wed June 1st.

Just dropping by the regional forums to let everyone know there's a seasonal hurricane forecast contest open here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/57386-2022-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-_-enter-by-june-1st/?tab=comments#comment-6537694 Deadline is Wed June 1st.

Just dropping by the regional forums to let everyone know there's a seasonal hurricane forecast contest open here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/57386-2022-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-_-enter-by-june-1st/?tab=comments#comment-6537694 Deadline is Wed June 1st. (also a reminder to regular entrants _ temp forecast contest, main forum, includes seasonal max this month)

Just dropping by the regional forums to let everyone know there's a seasonal hurricane forecast contest open here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/57386-2022-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-_-enter-by-june-1st/?tab=comments#comment-6537694 Deadline is Wed June 1st.

Just dropping by the regional forums to let everyone know there's a seasonal hurricane forecast contest open here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/57386-2022-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-_-enter-by-june-1st/?tab=comments#comment-6537694 Deadline is Wed June 1st.

20 _ 10 _ 3

Confirmed scoring for May 2022 Scoring based on final end of month anomalies. (see previous post). *score includes 1 pt deduction SEA scored by "max 60" progression with adjustments to reflect forecast differentials. (no raw scores would have exceeded the progression scores which were 60, 55, 50 ... 10, 05) .. some of the middle range were further boosted to maintain roughly the same proportionate scoring. FORECASTER ______________DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA_west__ TOTAL DonSutherland1 ____________ 96 _ 88 _ 86 __ 270 __ 54 _ 70 _ 50 __ 174 _ 444 _ 80 _ 76 _ 60^_ 216 ___ 660 RJay ____ (-1%) _____________ 81*_ 85*_ 87*_ 253 __ 67*_ 75*_ 69*_ 211 _ 464 _ 57*_ 87*_ 50^_ 194 ___ 658 Tom _____ (-1%) _____________ 95*_ 97*_ 79*__ 271 __ 36 _69*_ 51*_ 156 _ 427 _ 91*_ 75*_ 42^_208 ___ 635 Stormchaser Chuck ________ 72 _ 86 _ 88 __ 246 __ 98 _ 86 _ 70 _ 254 _ 500 _ 38 _ 88 _ 05^_ 131 ___ 631 Scotty Lightning ____________ 92 _ 96 _ 68 __ 256 __ 58 _ 76 _ 60 _ 194 __ 450 _ 78 _ 88 _ 10^_ 176 ___ 626 so_whats_happening _______ 80 _ 86 _ 84 __ 250 __ 28 _ 72 _ 66 _ 166 __ 416 _ 64 _ 98 _ 40^_ 202 ___ 618 ___ Consensus ______________ 96 _ 96 _ 70 __ 262 __ 28 _ 72 _ 58 _ 158 __420 _ 74 _ 88 _ 35^ _ 197 ___ 617 RodneyS ____________________ 92 _ 86 _ 48 __ 226 __ 00 _ 82 _ 72 _ 154 _ 380 _ 98 _ 78 _ 46^_ 222 ___ 602 BKViking ____________________ 98 _ 94 _ 62 __ 254 __ 34 _ 66 _ 56 _ 156 _ 410 _ 72 _ 82 _ 24^_ 178 ___ 588 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 90 _ 94 _ 80 __ 264 __ 16 _ 80 _ 58 _ 154 __ 418 _ 64 _ 70 _ 30^_ 164 ___ 582 wxdude64 ___________________96 _ 96 _ 70 __ 262 __ 22 _ 62 _ 54 _ 138 __400 _ 60 _ 94 _ 18^_ 172 ___ 572 ___ Normal __________________ 88 _ 84 _ 58 __ 230 __ 38 _ 46 _ 30 _ 114 __ 344 _ 88 _ 58 _ 26^_ 172 ___ 516 wxallannj ____________________ 56 _ 48 _ 18 __ 122 ___ 00 _ 36 _ 36 _ 072 __194 _ 98 _ 92 _ 40^_ 230 ___424 Roger Smith _________________ 58 _ 54 _ 24 __ 136 ___ 00 _ 22 _ 20 _ 042 __178 _ 18 _ 62 _ 55^_ 135 ___ 313 ___________________________________ EXTREME FORECASTS BOS, ORD and ATL are wins for Stormchaser Chuck with warmest forecasts. IAH is a win for RodneyS with warmest forecast. DEN would is a shared win for RodneyS and wxallannj with coldest forecasts. SEA is a win for DonSutherland1 with coldest forecast.

The June temperature forecast contest requires predictions of the anomalies in F deg (relative to 1991-2020 averages) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA and the summer max contest asks you to predict the highest temperatures of the year at these nine locations. Deadline is 06z Wed June 1st.

My entry is DCA 104 IAD 106 BWI 105 RIC 107 ... severe heat in TX already indicates potential for midsummer widespread severe heat waves. ... just hope you don't get a 500-yr return event like we got last summer (three days over 110 F here and this is no desert)

Time for the annual seasonal forecast contest ... same simplified format, just predict the seasonal counts of Storms, Hurricanes and Major Hurricanes, the long-term average for the sake of the format is 16/8/3 (or thereabouts). The contest will be based on the official NHC reporting on these stats during the season. Whether a named storm appears in May or not, the contest will not be affected, your prediction is the season end total, not the remainder of the season total. I will say June 1st as a rough deadline but may extend it slightly if there is a need to attract more entries. In past years 20 to 30 entries have been posted. Good luck!

Day late getting to this ... anomalies and projections ... ___________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA 12th ___ (11d anom) ______ -4.3 _-3.5 _-3.9e __+0.5 _+2.4 _+6.2 __ +2.0 _+2.5 _-5.5 12th ___ (p21d anom) ____ -2.0 _-2.0 _-2.0 ___+3.5 _+3.0 _+5.0 __ +2.0 _+2.5 _-4.5 12th ___ (p28d anom) ____ -1.0 _-1.0 _-1.0 ___ +2.5 _+2.5 _+4.0 __ +2.0 _+2.5 _-3.5 22nd ___ (21d anom) _____ 0.0 _ -0.4 _+0.7e __+4.0 _+3.4 _+5.7 __ +1.1 _+2.4 _-5.7 22nd ___ (p31d anom) ___ +1.0 _+1.0 _+2.0 __ +3.5 _+3.0 _+4.5 __ -0.5 _+2.0 _-4.0 1st __ (actual May anom)_+0.6 _+0.8_ +2.1 __ +3.1 _ +2.7 _+3.5 __ -0.6 _+2.1 _-4.9 _______ (11th) _ The very warm air mass now covering central U.S. states will probably modify back towards more average anomalies as it slowly works its way east and mixes in with a cooler variant left over from a coastal nor'easter. The result will likely be a slow moderation of current large negative anomalies in the east and continued warming for central locations, with an interruption expected in a few days. Western locations will stay fairly similar to current anomaly pattern with very cool air over the Pac NW only gradually relenting slightly. A hurricane depicted in the GOM near end of the model run could bring anomalies down at IAH if it comes ashore around there. Otherwise it looks like quite a warm month for IAH. No new snowfalls noted, most recent updates are in April thread. (22nd) _ The rest of the month looks fairly average with another burst of heat near the end in eastern regions. It will likely stay quite chilly in SEA, and somewhat warmer than average across the south. An additional 2.3" of snow was reported at DEN in the past few days; very chilly there for two days and the previously large anomalies have been reduced considerably. It should stay close to normal most of the way in now. (June 1st) _ Final anomalies now all posted and scoring adjusted.