Roger Smith

Note: IAD added 0.1" Sat and is now 10.7"

40/70 (Ray) will see 8-10" ... a foot s.w. 20-40 miles? I'll say 6" BOS, 8" ORH, 4-6" CT. 2" se ma and s RI

Would this be a good time to remind people of my 32" forecast?

Table of forecasts for snowfall winter 2024-2025 ... listed in order of total snowfall predicted ... FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV ___ TOTAL Roger Smith ________________13.5_ 32.0_ 47.0 ___ 50.6_ 52.2_ 130.0 ___ 89.0_ 1.5_109.3 ___ 525.1 wxdude64 _________________ 18.8_ 36.2_ 44.3 ___ 37.8_ 41.3_ 122.9 ___ 71.2_ 7.4 _102.7 ___ 482.6 Tom ________________________26.2_ 38.1_ 42.4 ___ 37.6_ 42.3_ 102.6 ___ 57.7_ 6.4__83.4 ___ 436.7 ___ Normal 1991-2020 _____13.7_ 29.8_ 49.2 ___ 38.4 _45.0__95.4 ___49.0_ 6.3_87.5 ___ 414.3 BKViking ___________________12.0_ 27.0_ 44.0 ___ 30.0_ 28.0 __ 98.0 ___ 55.0_14.0_ 100.0___ 408.0 RodneyS ____________________5.8_ 22.0_ 38.5 ___ 42.5_ 45.0__ 99.0 ___ 58.0_ 9.5__85.0 ___ 405.3 ___ Consensus ____________14.8_ 23.6_ 34.8 __ 35.0_ 36.7 _ 104.2 __57.4 _ 5.8 _91.7 ___ 404.0 RJay _______________________ 4.0_ 12.0 _ 50.0 ___ 29.0_ 35.0_ 100.0 ___ 60.0_ 6.0_ 100.0 ___ 396.0 Scotty Lightning ___________20.0_ 25.0_ 30.0___ 35.0_ 30.0_ 106.0 ___ 45.0 _ 3.0_ 100.0 ___ 394.0 wxallannj __________________25.0_ 30.0_ 34.0 ___32.0_ 35.0__ 94.0 ___ 40.0_ 4.0__ 88.0 ___ 382.0 Don Sutherland1 ___________ 8.0_ 16.5_ 35.0 ___ 40.0_ 45.0__ 95.0 ___ 55.0_ 8.0__ 75.0 ___ 377.5 hudsonvalley21 ____________17.0_ 21.0_ 28.0 ___ 26.0_ 24.0_ 102.0 ___ 51.0 _ 4.0__ 84.0 ___ 357.0 so_whats_happening ______13.0_ 19.0_ 35.0 ___ 29.0_ 31.0__ 98.0 ___ 39.0 _ 3.0__ 81.0 ___ 348.0 ___________________________ Persistence (2023-2024) ___ 8.0__ 7.5__ 9.8 ___ 22.2_ 23.5__ 71.3 ___ 44.6_ 0.3__ 60.8 ___ 248.0 ____________________ To date _____ (APR 25) _______ 14.9__12.9 _28.1 ___17.6 _28.7__ 77.2 ___ 47.7 __2.3 __75.7 ____305.1 (contest incl all seasonal snow) Scoring update FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_DTW_BUF ___ DEN_SEA_BTV ___ TOTAL Roger Smith _______________ 1.4_ 19.1 _ 18.9 ___ 33.0 _ 23.5 _ 51.1 ___ 43.0_ 0.8_ 33.6 ___ 224.4 wxdude64 _________________ 3.9_ 23.3_ 16.2 ___ 20.2_ 12.6 _ 45.7 ___23.5 _ 5.1 _27.0 ___ 177.5 Tom ________________________11.3_ 25.2_ 14.3 ___ 20.0_ 13.6 _ 25.4 ___ 10.0 _ 4.1 __ 7.7 ___131.6 ___ Normal 1991-2020 ____ 1.2 _ 16.9_ 21.1 ___ 20.8 _ 16.3 __16.5 ___ 3.0_ 4.0__11.8 ___ 111.6 BKViking ___________________ 2.9_ 14.1 _ 15.9 ___ 12.4 __ 0.7 __ 20.8 ___ 7.3 _11.7 __24.3 ___110.1 RodneyS ____________________9.1 _ 9.1 _ 10.4 ___ 24.9 _ 16.3 __ 21.8 ____8.6 _ 7.2 __ 8.9 ___118.4 ___ Consensus ____________ 0.1 _ 10.7 _ 6.7 ___ 17.4 __8.0 __27.0 ____ 9.7 _ 3.5 _16.0 ___ 99.1 RJay _______________________10.9 _ 0.9 _21.9 ___ 11.4 __ 6.3 __ 22.8 ___ 12.3_ 3.7 _ 24.3 ___ 114.5 Scotty Lightning ___________ 5.1 _ 12.1 __ 1.9 ___ 17.4 __ 1.3 __ 28.8 ____ 2.7 _0.7 _ 24.3 ___ 94.3 wxallannj __________________ 10.1_ 17.1 __ 5.9 ___ 14.4 __ 6.3 __ 16.8 ____ 7.7 _ 1.7 _ 12.3 ____ 92.3 Don Sutherland1 ___________ 6.9 _ 3.6 __6.9 ___ 22.4 _ 16.3 __ 17.8 ____ 7.3 _ 5.7 __ 0.7 ___ 87.6 hudsonvalley21 ____________ 2.1 _ 8.1 __ 0.1 _____ 8.4 __ 4.7 __ 24.8 ____ 3.3 _ 1.7 __ 8.3 ___ 61.5 so_whats_happening ______ 1.9 _ 6.1 __ 6.9 ____ 11.4 __ 2.3 __ 20.8 ____ 8.7 _ 0.7 __ 5.3 ___64.1 Persistence (2023-2024) __ 6.9__ 5.4__18.3___ 4.6 __ 5.2 ____ 5.9 ____ 3.1 _2.0 _ 14.9 ___ 66.3

WARNING A 45 degree rainfall event will strike large parts of the region on Wednesday into Thursday. Prepare yourself with an umbrella and raingear. Surfaces may become wet. Dogs may shake off excess water inside residences and places of business. These impacts can be reduced by ... etc

Table of forecasts for February 2025 FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA StormchaserChuck ________+4.0 _ +3.9 _ +3.2 __ +2.8 _ +5.8 _+5.2 __ +0.9 _ +1.0 _ -4.7 DonSutherland1 ___________ +3.2 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 __ +2.5 _ +5.2 _+4.5 __ +1.8 _ +0.5 _ -4.5 BKViking __________________ +3.1 _ +2.3 _ +2.0 ___ -0.9 _ +3.0 _ +1.2 __ -1.0 _ -0.1 __ -2.2 so_whats_happening ______+2.8 _ +2.6 _ +2.4 ___ +2.9 _+4.2 _ +4.8 __ +1.1 _ +1.7 _ -3.2 hudsonvalley21 ____________+2.6 _ +1.9 _ +2.1 ___ +2.2 _ +2.6 _ +2.0 __ +1.6 _ +0.2 _-0.9 wxallannj __________________ +1.8 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 ___ -0.4 _ +1.8 _ +1.6 __ -0.3 _ +0.7 _ -1.8 ___ Consensus ____________ +1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 ___ +0.5 _ +2.6 _+2.0 __+0.8_ +0.7 _ -2.4 wxdude64 _________________ +1.5 _ +0.6 _ +0.2 ___+0.5 _ +2.1 _ +1.1 __ +0.7 _ +0.3 _ -1.2 RodneyS ___________________+1.3 _ +0.9 _ +0.8 __ +0.2 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +1.2 _ +1.7 _ -4.5 Tom _______________________ +1.1 __ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +1.7 _ +1.1 __ +0.8 __ +0.5 _ +0.7 _ -1.1 Scotty Lightning ___________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 Roger Smith _______________ +0.3 _ -0.3 _ -0.5 ___ -1.7 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 __ -3.5 _ +0.7 _ -2.5 RJay ________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.5 ___ +1.2 __0.0 _ -2.5 ___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Persistence __ (Jan 2025) __ -3.3 _ -2.5 _ -1.1 _____ -2.6 _ -4.1 _ -4.4 ___ -5.9 _ -1.2 _ -3.7 ============================= [] ============================= Warmest and coldest forecasts color coded, Normal is also colder than all forecasts at ATL, IAH and equal at DCA. Normal is also equal to warmest forecast for SEA. (persistence not incl in this analysis)

January is scored back in the Jan section, generally most of scores are in a narrow range and nobody broke 600 -- and I've decided I won't impose late penalties (would be small anyway) because of the distractions of recent events and it being a weekend etc. Will post a table of Feb forecasts soon.

Phil was seeing other groundhogs -- and even badgers and skunks. This is why I am not a philophile.

+0.3 _ -0.3 _ -0.5 _ -1.7 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 __ -3.5 _ +0.7 _ -2.5

A reminder to enter Feb forecast contest in 2025 contest thread.

A report of -55F at Peter Sinks, in northern utah. http://www.abc4.com/news/northern-utah/this-utah-location-dropped-to-negative-55-degrees-on-monday-night/

So I only need one significant, or two lesser events, standard IAD-DCA differentials, and no snow RIC? I like my chances, but will not be too surprised if I'm near the lead for a few days and then pass off to a bigger total forecaster in a march K-u. Pattern a bit like 1984, could be mild for most of Feb and then cold again in march. Wish I had a 3" cushion for RIC.

I hope everyone took the over ... still time to take it at KC, good weather and those two offenses ... somebody wins 57-56.

What's expected from clipper on Wed? Looks like a band of 2-4" potential ending with blowing snow Wed nite into Thurs morning, blowing snow and flash freeze could be biggest impact? (VT, w and ne ma into s nh will see higher impacts than CT/RI/se mass)

JAN scoring ^^^ ===================== FEB forecasts (see post #1 for details) vvvvv

A few odds and ends ... there already is a year zero in astronomical tables, but as stated in an earlier post, not in historical time frames ... If you looked up an astronomical event listed as being in January, 4 BC, that event would be in 5 BC (or BCE as some say) if compared to any historical accounts. Of course, people alive then were not aware of the reason for numbering the year 1 A.D. as we do (and have done since about 450 A.D.), instead, if one were a citizen of the Roman empire, years would have been numbered from the founding of Rome, and if an observant Jew, even as today, from very ancient Biblical events (it was already a year in the 3000's). First calculations of the probable birth year of Jesus were off by about four years, so they identified "25 Dec of 1 B.C." as what by their logic was actually 25 Dec of 4 A.D. (an error crept into calculations of periods of rule of Roman emperors after Augustus Caesar). Also it is quite likely that Jesus was born not in late December but closer to end of February if we are to believe that sheperds were out in fields (to tend to newborn lambs in season). It is quite possible that the actual birth date of Jesus was something like Feb 25, 4 B.C. (or 5 B.C.) in a calendar that drops the year zero, or Feb 25, 3 B.C. (or 4 B.C.) set in the astronomical calendar system. ... ... On a different topic, at 0.45" at NYC, still 0.13" below driest January (1981), and at 30.4 F currently colder than final values of 101 of 155 previous Jans, and equal to one (1903). If we apply corrections for urban heat island, 2025 is presently colder than another 15 that, while colder in absolute terms, would likely be warmer if experienced with present urban heat island (using a rather conservative 2.0 F total correction applied in ten stages to data after 1881, and flat-lined since 1981). If the month ends a bit colder at say 30.0 F, it will then rank t51 coldest of 156 (with 1923), and after applying u.h.i. corrections, at 28.0 F In pre-1881 no-heat-island comparison, ranking 39th coldest, just ahead of 1984 and 2015. So a fairly impressive cold January and it could end up near top two or three driest also, quite a similar outcome overall to 1963, 1970 and 1981 (rank colder by 2-3 F).

Also -8 at ALB and POu, -13 CON.

__ Final Scoring for January 2025 __ based on anomalies posted above ... IAH, DEN and SEA have boosted scores (max 60) ... scores are either from a "minimum progression" (60, 55, 50 etc) or raw score whichever is higher. The minimum progression value can be increased if a forecast is within 2 or 4 by raw score of the next higher score. The most any score can be boosted is 4 relative to its minimum progression value. Normal and consensus are scored from closest equivalent forecast scores, Persistence is only given raw scores. FORECASTER __________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS wxdude64 ________________________84 _ 96 _ 98 __ 278 __ 94 _ 78 _ 38^__ 210 _ 488 __47^_ 34 _ 30^ __ 111 ____599 BKViking _________________________ 86 _ 96 _ 78 __ 260 __ 96 _ 98 _ 43^__ 237 _ 497 __33^_ 32 _ 28^__ 093 ____590 ___ Consensus __________________ 86 _ 96 _ 82 __ 264 __ 96 _ 98 _ 32^__226 _ 490 _ 33^_ 32 _ 30^__ 095 ___ 585 wxallannj ________________________ 70 _ 80 _ 96 __ 246 __ 90 _ 66 _ 50^__ 206 _ 452 __ 50^_ 48 _ 35^__ 133 ____ 585 so_whats_happening _____________78 _ 88 _ 70 __ 236 __ 78 _ 80 _ 55^__ 213 _ 449 __ 60^_ 20 _ 48^__ 128 ____ 577 hudsonvalley21 __________________ 72 _ 84 _ 92 __ 248 __ 70 _ 74 _ 25^__ 169 __417 __ 60^_ 38 _ 50^__ 148 ____ 565 RodneyS _________________________ 90 _ 68 _ 86 __ 244 __ 64 _ 74 __20^__ 158 _ 402 __ 33^_ 64 _ 60^__157 ____559 DonSutherland1 __________________ 66 _100 _98 __ 264 __ 88 _ 72 _ 32^__ 192 _ 456 __ 35^_ 12 _ 28^ __ 075 ____ 531 Scotty Lightning _________________ 94 _ 80 _ 42 __ 216 __ 62 _ 58 _ 60^__ 180 _ 396 __ 15^ _ 26 _ 48^__ 089 ____485 RJay ______________________________76 _ 90 _ 82 __ 248 __ 98 _ 82 _ 15^___195 _ 443 __ 23^_ 00 _ 10^ __ 033 ____476 Roger Smith ______________________ 94 _100 _ 82 __ 276 __ 82 _ 98 _ 02^__ 182 _ 458 __ 00 _ 00 _ 15^__ 015 ____473 maxim ____________________________ 84 _ 80 _ 98 __ 262 __ 48 _ 58 _ 00 __ 106 _ 368 __ 10^_ 06 _ 55^__ 071 ____ 439 ___ Normal ________________________ 34 _ 50 _ 78 __ 162 __ 48 _ 18 __ 15^ __ 081 _ 243 __ 38^_ 76 _ 58^__ 172 ____ 415 Tom _______________________________52 _ 60 _ 64 __ 176 __ 70 _ 64 _ 48^__ 182 __ 358 __ 40^_ 00 _ 08^__ 048 ____406 StormchaserChuck _______________ 60 _ 62 _ 50 __ 172 __ 12 __ 82 _ 15^__ 109 _ 281 __ 05^_ 00 _ 03^__ 008 ____ 289 - - - - Persistence (Dec 2024) ___________30 _ 68 _ 86 __ 184 __ 18 _ 00 _ 00 __ 018 _ 202 __ 00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 ____ 202 ____________________________ Extreme forecasts so far ... DCA, NYC, ORD and ATL did not qualify. BOS was a shared win for three tied at 98 including second warmest -1.0, RodneyS takes a loss with warmest (-0.4). IAH, DEN, PHX and SEA all go to coldest forecasts ... ... in order, Scotty Lightning (IAH), hudsonvalley21 tied so_whats_happening (DEN), Rodney S (PHX, SEA). ... Normal also wins for PHX. Forecasts for January 2025 __ FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ___ Normal _________________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 wxallannj __________________________-1.8 _ -1.5 _ -1.3 ___ -2.1 _ -2.4 _ -1.2 ___ -0.7 _ +1.4 _ +2.0 hudsonvalley21 ___________________ -1.9 _ -1.7 _ -1.5 ___ -1.1 __-2.8 _ -0.4 ___ -1.2 _ +1.9 _ +1.4 maxim ____________________________ -2.5 _ -1.5 _ -1.0 ____0.0 _ -2.0 _ +1.1 ___ +2.4 _ +3.5 _ +1.0 RodneyS __________________________-2.8 _ -0.9 _ -0.4 __ -0.8 _ -2.8 _-0.2 ___ +0.9 _ +0.6 _-0.3 Roger Smith ______________________ -3.0 _ -2.5 _ -2.0 __ -3.5 _ -4.0 _ +1.0 ___ +6.0 _ +6.0 _ +3.5 Scotty Lightning __________________ -3.0 _ -3.5 _ -4.0 __ -4.5 _ -2.0 _ -2.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 BKViking __________________________-4.0 _ -2.7 _ -2.2 __ -2.4 _ -4.2 _ -1.0 ___ +0.9 _ +2.2 _ +3.0 ___ Consensus __________________-4.0 _ -2.7 _ -2.0 __ -2.4 _ -4.2 _-0.7 __+0.9 _ +2.2 _ +2.9 wxdude64 ________________________ -4.1 _ -2.7 __ -1.2 __ -2.3 _ -5.2 _ -0.9 ___ -0.5 _ +2.1 _ +2.9 so_whats_happening ______________-4.4 _ -3.1 _ -2.6 __ -3.7 _ -5.1 __ -1.6 ___ -1.2 __ +2.8 _ +1.5 RJay ______________________________ -4.5 _ -3.0 _ -2.0 __ -2.5 _ -5.0 __ 0.0 ___ +1.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.0 DonSutherland1 ___________________ -5.0 _ -2.5 _ -1.0 __ -2.0 _ -5.5 _ -0.7 ___ +0.8 _ +3.2 _ +3.0 StormchaserChuck ________________-5.3 _ -4.4 _ -3.6 __ -7.0 _ -5.0 __ 0.0 ___ +5.7 _ +6.2 _ +4.2 Tom _______________________________ -5.7 _ -4.5 _ -2.9 __ -4.1 _ -5.9 __ -1.1 ____ -0.1 _ +4.2 _ +4.1 Persistence (Dec 2024) ___________ +0.2 _ -0.9 _ -0.4 __+1.5 _+1.5 _ +5.7 ___+8.2 _ +6.5 _ +2.0 ____________________________

Secret Canadian weather obs not shared with south Canadians.

Looks to me like 10-15 in of snow possible along coast of Carolinas as low begins to explosively deepen well to south and inland ridge holds. About 5 inches in tidewater VA s.w. to central SC.

This Atlantic low will go on to cause damaging winds (70-110 knots) in Ireland on Friday. ... model consensus is that it deepens to 940 mbs near 20W and core of strongest winds slams into west coast of Ireland 0600 Friday. ... moderate to extreme damage is possible in western counties and could in worst case model scenarios extend across to Dublin also.

That's due to the moderating influence of Lake Champlain, or possibly hot air blowing in from Ottawa, I presume. /jk

After the 1899 snowfall in n FL, TLH dropped to -2 F (IIRC) and ice floes were also observed exiting the Mississippi delta into the Gulf of Eskimo.

Gulf of Mexico Gulf of America Gulf of Eskimo

Don, how many measurable snowfalls have there been at Mobile and New Orleans? Any chance of a top ten listing? I know there were big falls in Feb 1895 and 1899.