Roger Smith

That 99 in 1983 tied 1931 (Sep 11) but yes it was the latest in season. The next benchmarks are 97F on Sep 23, 1895 and 94F Oct 5, 1941, 91F Oct 10, 1939, and 90F Oct 17, 1938. Benchmarks after that are Oct 22 1979 (88F), Oct 23, 1947 (85F), Nov 1 and 2 1950 (84F, 83F), Nov 15 1993 (80F), Nov 20, 1985 (77F) , Dec 7 1998 (75F) and possibly Dec 24 2015 (72F). (a benchmark as you probably know is a latest occurrence in season, or an earliest from midwinter to midsummer). Benchmarks before the 1881 101F are (by definition) the all-time record 106F July 9, 1936, then 104F Aug 7, 1918, 103F Aug 26, 1948 and 102F Sep 2, 1953, 101F Sep 7, 1881. 2015 (Dec 24) at 72F is a partially invalid benchmark as it was also 72F on Jan 6, 2007 and Jan 26, 1950. These are probably the real benchmarks eliminating Dec 24, 2015 but another view would be only Jan 25, 1950 is a benchmark (falling) because the coldest day of winter is on average in early February. This is when the benchmarks reverse, so the set of spring into summer benchmarks are 73F (Feb 15, 1949), 78F Feb 21, 2018, 79F Mar 10, 2016, 85F Mar 13, 1990, 86F Mar 29, 1945, 92F Apr 7, 2010; 96F Apr 17, 2002; 99F May 19, 1962; 100F June 26, 1952, 101F June 27, 1966, and 103F July 3, 1966 before the ultimate 106F July 9, 1936. These are the only daily records that "really matter" in the sense that all others are not as impressive in terms of being earliest or latest occurrences. It's interesting how few of these are recent. If you only count the 72F in Jan 1950, then there are 29 benchmarks (one tied 1931,1983, and two cases of two consecutive in same year 1950 and 1966) and the median of the 26 years involved (1950 counts three times, 1966 twice) is 1952. The years counted are 1881 1895 1918 1931 1936 1938 1939 1941 1945 1947 1948 1950** 1952 1953 1962 1966* 1979 1983 1985 1990 1993 1998 2002 2010 (2007, 2015 not counted) 2016 2018 ... The benchmarks cluster noticeably from 1936 to 1953 (12 of 29), and 1979 to 2002 (7 more). There is no significant bias towards recent decades, with 29 benchmarks over 156 years, one would expect 4 since 2000 which is the case. The number established by 1918 (3) is well below random expectation (9). The only year with two non-consecutive benchmarks from the same spell of weather is 1950 (one in January, two in early November). But if Dec 2015 counted, the two closest in time (non-associated) would be that one and March 10, 2016. I'm not sure what name you could give an almost-benchmark, which would be a case like April 18, 1976, tying a benchmark and clearly a near-equal outlier (86F Mar 31 1998 would be another, as would 94F on Sep 23, 1914). I guess almost-benchmark is probably as good as we'll get. A benchmark can be erased as even a daily record, for example, April 7, 1929 (89F) was a benchmark until 2010 replaced it as both a daily record and benchmark. 1991 held a 90F benchmark set April 8, that one is still a daily record but was removed as a benchmark by 2010. May is the only month with only one benchmark. That is a sign of the extreme significance of the 1976 and 2002 April 96 readings, no date in early to mid-May exceeded them (before 1962, the benchmarks were 92F (Apr 27, 1915), 93F (May 12, 1881), 95F (May 25, 1880), 96F (May 31 1895, 1939) and 99F (June 4, 1925).

It was very similar to 1953 in timing and duration but not quite as intense, highs were often 95 to 98 and failed to break records but it was very hot (I was actually in NYC for one day during it, on a road trip). The records it did set were ties for max and min on 30th (98/78, ties with 1953 for the max and 2018 for the min). So it has the highest daily mean for Aug 30th.

That is correct, in fact it has not even hit 99 F from July 24 to 28. (99F on July 29, 1949). There's a similar lull in August from 16th to 25th with highest value 97F and even more pronounced, records of only 92F and 94F on Aug 23rd-24th. After August 25th the records generally pick up considerably although most are in a few years like 1948, 53, 73 and later 1881. Perhaps these are expectable random variations that will fill in after 250-300 years of records.

(in response to Don's chart of the distribution of highs after low of 63) ... Probably the 63 "low" associated with the 95 in 1925 was at end of day as that heat wave ended, so it wasn't a case of 63 warming to 95, but 95 cooling down to 63? Not sure about that but it looks that way. Urelated factoid, I recently updated a data base for NYC and found that the highest average temperature for the entire period of record occurs on July 18 for both max and min. (86, 70).

I may not always need to know minute by minute temperature variations five miles east of JFK, but when I do, this is where I come.

New weekly records were set June 19-25 for mean (82.64) and average minimum (74.56), replacing 2024 in both cases. The value for average maximum, 90.71 (record 91.86 set in 1923) was not a record. The three-day super-hot interval at end of this weekly interval was the main reason for it to register, and cooler temperatures on 26th resulted in averages falling just below record values except for average minimum which tied 1909. Also 18th to 24th fell short as it was not able to use the last very hot day.

There was a considerable urban heat island in 1948, actually, you could rate it as 60 to 70 per cent of the present urban heat island. Perhaps most of its influence would be on overnight lows. But even by around 1890 to 1900 large cities were beginning to display an urban heat island. Vehicle traffic is only a small component of the cause of a heat island, the main components are altered surface albedos and escape of building heat. People were heating their houses before they had cars. Also they had transformed the urban environments to allow horse and carriage movement (thus changing heat retention). The strength of an urban heat island falls off rapidly after the first 100,000 of population in an urban area is reached and begins for towns as small as 2,000 population based on extensive research by many climatologists. You'd perhaps be surprised how quickly an urban heat island develops and how slowly it increases once developed, if you hadn't done active research or read the literature. For my Toronto data I estimated the urban heat island began in the 1881-1890 decade (rated at 0.1 C differential then) and I took an arbitrary 0.1 increase each decade to 1971-1980 (adding 1.0 then). For 1981-1990 and the past 35 years I estimated it had stabilized at 1.1 C (2.0 F) deg. For NYC data I have assumed the same pace of change except that I would expect an increase had already begun for 1869 to 1880 so if I had data as far back as Toronto's 1840 startup, I would start modifying 1861-1870 at 0.2 F or 0.1 C and adding that amount every decade so the stable period of 1981-2025 would be actually +1.3 C (+2.34 F) relative to what NYC might record in an unaltered "rural" state. Now some might instantly say, but NYC is in a megalopolis much larger than greater Toronto, would it not warm up even more? Perhaps, but as I said, past 100,000 the rate of increase is very slow and probably past 5 million it cannot increase because the environment is so substantially altered on a regional basis. The strength of the greater New York heat island is probably well over +1.5 F out into parts of west central NJ near the end of suburban sprawl. As to the urban park question and temperature reductions in hot weather, that probably washes out of data sets fairly quickly as there aren't all that many hot days and the nights in question remain more affected anyway. Urban heat islands tend to be something like 75% minimum boosts and 25% maximum boosts, an estimate of a +2.0 heat island really means +1.0 for average maximum and +3.0 for average minimum. Large stretches of cloudy wet weather show very small urban heat island effects, dry and clear months would have larger differentials.

2025 reduced 1888 in the roster of all-time records, from 2.0 to 0.5 daily max, and from 1.5 to 0.5 high daily min (it still has a tie with 2015 for a December high min, and it retains a tie with 2025 for June 23rd max. 2025 also reduced 1909 from 4.0 to 2.0 daily records for high minimum values, and reduced 1952 to a one-third share of monthly high min. The counts for June 2025 are 1.5 and 3.0 daily records (max, min) and two-thirds share of the monthly record high min.

June scoring is updated in post before previous post (wxdude64 July forecast already entered). If this wraps on your screen, try a lower magnification setting. 90% works for me, 100% wraps. === ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for Jan-June 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: === FORECASTER ______DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__ west __ TOTALS Tom ___________________ 401 _438 _474 __1313 __364 _428 _386 __1178 _2491 __446 _416 _390__1252___3743 ___ Consensus ______ 381 _420 _444__1245__354 _474 _372_1200 _2445 _385 _410_460__1255___3700 hudsonvalley21 _______ 367 _434 _482 __1283 __302 _462 _387__1151__2434 __402 _402 _448__1252 ___3686 so_whats_happening __415 _448 _408 __1271 __338 _490 _349 __1177__2448 __348 _340 _458__ 1146 ___ 3594 RJay __________________ 366 _445 _ 463__1274 __392 _486 _370__1248 _2522__333 _319 _363__ 1015___ 3537 Scotty Lightning _______422 _428 _390 __1240 __279 _354 _392 __1025 _2265 __347 _470 _440__1257 ___3522 wxallannj ______________ 331 _368 _410 __ 1109 __ 346 _398 _364 __1108 _2217 __416 _408 _437__ 1261 ___3478 BKViking ______________ 300 _373 _393 __1066 __378 _446 _356__1180 _ 2246 __ 398 _396 _419__1213 ___3459 DonSutherland1 _______313 _362 _404 __1079 __342 _422 _334 __1098 _2177 __ 403 _368 _472__ 1243 ___3420 wxdude64 _____________340 _370 _390 __1100 __266_ 414 _330 __1010 _ 2110 __387 _390 _440__1217 ___3327 StormchaserChuck ___ 389 _394 _408 __1191 __244 _466 _ 279 __989 _ 2180 __ 379 _372 _393__1144 ___3324 RodneyS ______________ 366 _378 _414 __1158 __256 _352 _324 __932 _ 2090 __ 317 _374 _534__1225 ___ 3315 Roger Smith ___________326 _366 _386 __1078 __360 _408 _332 __1100 _2178 __244 _346 _421__ 1011 ___3189 ___ Normal _____________328 _378 _384 __1090 __270 _244 _ 187 __ 701__1791__368 _370 _440__ 1178 ___2969 maxim (2/6) ___________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __ 298__ 794 __ 92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total ... 3333 Persistence _____________200 _294 _406 __ 900 ___138 _268 _296 __ 702 _1602 __224 _282 _354 __ 860 ____2462 ____________________________ ________________________________ __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 tied for best score ________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS Tom ____________________ 1 __ 1^ _ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2^ __1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____2 __ Mar,Jun ___ Consensus _______ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___0 __ 1 ___0 ___0 hudsonvalley21 ________ 0 __ 2^__2 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1^ ___0 __ 0 ___2^^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____0 so_whats_happening __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1^ __ 1^ __ 1 ___ 2 ____0 RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2^__ 0 __ 1^ __ 2 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 1^ ___0 ____0 Scotty Lightning _______ 2^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 3 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 3*___1 ___ 1 ____0 wxallannj _______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1^ __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____0 BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1*__ 0 ___0 ____0 Don Sutherland 1 _______0 __ 1^__ 1*____0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 wxdude64 ______________1 __ 1 __ 1*___ 2 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____1 _ Jan StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 0 __ 0 ____2 ___ 1^__ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___0 __ 1^___ 1 ____ 0 _Apr RodneyS _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 1^ __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 _____1 _ May Roger Smith ____________ 1^ __ 2^__1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___1 __ 2^^__ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 _ Feb ___ Normal ______________ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 maxim __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1* ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 ============================== odd distribution of contest wins, 4/6 go to last four of five regular entrants in total scoring. (two to top scorer Tom) Extreme forecasts So far, 31 of 54 ... 16 for warmest and 15 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6, Jun 1-1 Forecaster ______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May _Jun __ Total___adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Rodney S ________________ 2-1 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 _0-1 __ 6-2 ___ 5.0 - 2.0 Scotty Lightning _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 __5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0.0 Roger Smith _____________ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 ___5-2 ___ 4.5 - 2.0 hudsonvalley21 __________ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0 __4-1 ___ 3.5 - 0.0 Stormchaser Chuck ______0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 _ 0-0 __4-3 ___ 3.5 - 3.0 ___ Normal _______________ 1-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 _0-1 __ 3-2 ____ 3.0 - 2.0 maxim ____________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __ 3-0 ___ 2.33-0.0 Tom ______________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 _ 0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.5 - 0.0 RJay ______________________0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 ___ 1.0-0.0 so_whats_happening ____ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __0-0 __2-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 Don Sutherland __________ 1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 ____1.33-0.0 wxdude64 ________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 __ 2-0 ____ 1.33-0.0 BKViking _________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 wxallannj _________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 =========================================================

Anything is possible for forecasters with higher values than this heat wave produced, it's probably 50-50 whether a warmer spell comes along or not ... 1952 had similar heat and repeated it in mid-July. Some other years never got back to the June peaks they saw (1943 for one example, I think). The 1952 repeat was something like July 14-17.

Current scoring as of June 25th I have added the two late forecasts to table to keep track of their unofficial rankings. These two late forecasts are not included in contest consensus. Their ranks will not alter any forecaster ranks for on-time "official" entries. A decimal rank indicates a position between two official ranks. Actual values ___________________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 FORECASTER _________________ DCA _IAD _BWI _RIC ___ errors ____ TOTAL (rank) __ error points baked in Jebman (L-2) __________________ 106 _ 103 _ 102 _ 101 ___ 7 6 3 2 __ 18 (rank 22) ____ 0 Miss Pixee (L-1) ________________ 104 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 5 4 3 1 __ 13 (rank 18.5) __ 0 gopper (16) ____________________ 103 _ 102 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 4 5 3 3 __ 15 (rank 19) ____ 0 batmanbrad (19) _______________ 103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 4 4 3 1 __ 12 (rank 18) ____ 0 Roger Ramjet (20) _____________ 102 _ 101 _ 103 _ 103 ___ 3 4 4 4 __ 15 (rank 20)____ 0 tplbge (14) _____________________ 102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 ___ 3 3 2 2 __ 10 (rank 15) ____ 0 DanTheMan (8) ________________ 101 _ 103 _ 104 _ 103 ___ 2 6 5 4 __ 17 (rank 21)____ 0 Roger Smith (1) _________________ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 2 4 3 1 __ 10 (rank 16) ____ 0 GramaxRefugee (18) ____________100 _ 101 _ 102 _ 101 ___ 1 4 3 2 __ 10 (rank 17) ____ 0 biodhokie (17) __________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 ___ 1 4 2 1 ___ 8 (rank 14) ____ 0 wxdude64 (13) _________________ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 100 ___1 3 3 1 ___ 8 (rank 13) ____ 0 George BM (2) _________________ 100 __ 99 _ 101 _ 101 ___ 1 2 2 2 ___ 7 (rank 12) ____ 0 ___ consensus _________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 __ 0 2 1 1 ___ 4 (rank 9) ____ 0 MillvilleWx (7) ___________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 0 2 1 3 ___ 6 (rank 11)____ 0 Rhino16 (5) ______________________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 0 2 0 2 ___ 4 (rank 10)____ 0 Jenkins Jinkies (9) ______________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ___ 0 2 0 1 ___ 3 (rank 8) ____ 0 NorthArlington101 (6) ____________99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 ___ 0 2 0 0 ___ 2 (rank 4) ____ 0 RickinBaltimore (10) _____________ 99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___ 0 1 1 0 ___ 2 (rank 3) ____ 1 WxUSAF (4) _____________________ 99 __ 97 _ 100 __ 99 ___0 0 1 0 ___ 1 (rank 1) ____ 0 toolsheds (12) ___________________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 0 0 0 2 ___ 2 (rank 5) ____ 0 Weather53 (21) __________________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ___1 2 1 0 ___ 4 (rank 9)____ 1 nw baltimore wx (3) _____________ 98 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 ___ 1 1 0 0 ___ 2 (rank 2) ____ 1 Its A Breeze (11) _________________ 98 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___ 1 1 1 0 ___ 3 (rank 6) ____ 2 Prince Frederick Wx (15) ________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 ___ 1 0 1 1 ___ 3 (rank 7) ____ 3 ____________________________ see original post for tie-breaker protocols ... error points "baked in" are those from forecasts below actual values, these error points cannot now be reduced. Consensus is median of forecasts. The mean of forecasts is 99.9, 99.5, 100.4, 100.3 or 100 _ 100 _ 100 _ 100, Of 21 forecasts, nine have all locations at 100 or higher, five have no locations reaching 100F, seven have a blend. Ranges are 98-103, 97-103, 98-104, 98-103

Update, BWI 99 is the only upgrade today, RIC tied 99 already set. 96 at both DCA and IAD. I will edit the scoring table ...

Is today's min going to persist to end of the calendar day? I suspect maybe something like an evening low of 76?

Current scoring as of June 24th Actual values ___________________ 99 __ 97 __ 98 __ 99 FORECASTER _________________ DCA _IAD _BWI _RIC ___ errors ____ TOTAL (rank) __ error points baked in gopper (16) ____________________ 103 _ 102 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 4 5 4 3 __ 16 (rank 19) ____ 0 batmanbrad (19) _______________ 103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 4 4 4 1 __ 13 (rank 18) ____ 0 Roger Ramjet (20) _____________ 102 _ 101 _ 103 _ 103 ___ 3 4 5 4 __ 16 (rank 20)____ 0 tplbge (14) _____________________ 102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 ___ 3 3 3 2 __ 11 (rank 15) ____ 0 DanTheMan (8) ________________ 101 _ 103 _ 104 _ 103 ___ 2 6 6 4 __ 18 (rank 21)____ 0 Roger Smith (1) _________________ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 2 4 4 1 __ 11 (rank 16) ____ 0 GramaxRefugee (18) ____________100 _ 101 _ 102 _ 101 ___ 1 4 4 2 __ 11 (rank 17) ____ 0 biodhokie (17) __________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 ___ 1 4 3 1 ___ 9 (rank 14) ____ 0 wxdude64 (13) _________________ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 100 ___1 3 4 1 ___ 9 (rank 13) ____ 0 George BM (2) _________________ 100 __ 99 _ 101 _ 101 ___ 1 2 3 2 ___ 8 (rank 12) ____ 0 ___ consensus _________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 __ 0 2 2 1 ___ 5 (rank 9) ____ 0 MillvilleWx (7) ___________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 0 2 2 3 ___ 7 (rank 11)____ 0 Rhino16 (5) ______________________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 0 2 1 2 ___ 5 (rank 9) ____ 0 Jenkins Jinkies (9) ______________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ___ 0 2 1 1 ___ 4 (rank 8) ____ 0 NorthArlington101 (6) ____________99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 ___ 0 2 1 0 ___ 3 (rank 6) ____ 0 RickinBaltimore (10) _____________ 99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___ 0 1 0 0 ___ 1 (rank 1) ____ 0 WxUSAF (4) _____________________ 99 __ 97 _ 100 __ 99 ___0 0 2 0 ___ 2 (rank 4) ____ 0 toolsheds (12) ___________________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 0 0 1 2 ___ 3 (rank 7) ____ 0 Weather53 (21) __________________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ___1 2 2 0 ___ 5 (rank 10)____ 1 nw baltimore wx (3) _____________ 98 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 ___ 1 1 1 0 ___ 3 (rank 5) ____ 1 Its A Breeze (11) _________________ 98 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___ 1 1 0 0 ___ 2 (rank 2) ____ 1 Prince Frederick Wx (15) ________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 ___ 1 0 0 1 ___ 2 (rank 3) ____ 2 ____________________________ see original post for tie-breaker protocols ... error points "baked in" are those from forecasts below actual values, these error points cannot now be reduced. Consensus is median of forecasts. The mean of forecasts is 99.9, 99.5, 100.4, 100.3 or 100 _ 100 _ 100 _ 100, Of 21 forecasts, nine have all locations at 100 or higher, five have no locations reaching 100F, seven have a blend. Ranges are 98-103, 97-103, 98-104, 98-103

Update __ June 24 ___ 99 _ 97 _ 98 _ 99

No doubt these will be adjusted within 24 hours but so far ... 98 96 97 97

Early climate report for NYC indicates 96 max ties daily record set in 1888 _ second highest value on 23rd was 94F in 1966. 80 min sets new record for date (77 1888) and is only second 80+ min in June (81 June 26, 1952). There have been a number of 79F mins including non-record June 26, 2003, and daily records for 10th 1984, 21st 2012; 24th 1909; and 30th, 1945, 1959.

Early climate report for NYC indicates 96 max ties daily record set in 1888 _ second highest value on 23rd was 94F in 1966. 80 min sets new record for date (77 1888) and is only second 80+ min in June (81 June 26, 1952). There have been a number of 79F mins including non-record June 26, 2003, and daily records for 10th 1984, 21st 2012; 24th 1909; and 30th, 1945, 1959.

Posted this on main June thread ... What I'm noticing about Monday and Tuesday is a very light wind field, almost NW to N as the surface flow begins to lose identity. Certainly a hot enough air mass to approach 100F in the NYC metro but will any weak sea breezes develop to keep readings in the low to mid 90s? I would bet on 102-105 in parts of NJ.

What I'm noticing about Monday and Tuesday is a very light wind field, almost NW to N as the surface flow begins to lose identity. Certainly a hot enough air mass to approach 100F in the NYC metro but will any weak sea breezes develop to keep readings in the low to mid 90s? I would bet on 102-105 in parts of NJ.

Final scoring for June 2025 based on the final anomalies in previous post. ... no child left behind in this scoring report! (very high in general) FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e_DEN_PHX_SEA_west__TOTAL Tom ________________________ 76 _ 92 _ 98 __ 266 __ 50 _100 _ 84 _234 _ 500 __94 _98 _96 __288 __ 788 Scotty Lightning ____________ 92 _ 96 _ 78 __ 266 __ 38 _ 86 _ 96 _ 220 _ 486__ 94 _ 96_ 90__280 __ 766 ___ Consensus ______________76 _ 84 _ 90 __ 250 __ 54 _ 88 _ 86 _ 228 _ 478__98 _84 _100__ 282 __ 760 RJay ________________________ 62 _ 74 _ 82 __ 218 __ 78 _ 96 _ 94 _ 268 _ 486__ 96 _76 _100__272 __ 758 DonSutherland1 _____________80 _ 80 _ 86 __ 246 __ 80 _ 70 _ 82 _ 232 _ 478 __92 _82 _ 90 __264 __ 742 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 64 _ 76 _ 92 __ 232 __ 56 _ 90 _ 86 _232 _ 464 __98 _94 _ 84 __276 __ 740 wxallannj ___________________ 68 _ 78 _ 80 __ 226 __ 38 _ 92 _ 92 _ 222 _ 448 __98 _92_ 94 __284 __ 732 so_whats_happening _______ 78 _ 92 _ 90 __ 260 __ 56 _ 88 _ 86 _ 230 _ 490__ 74 _82 _ 78 __234 __ 724 wxdude64 __________________96 _100 _96 __ 292 __ 36 _ 82 _ 76 _ 194 _ 486 __ 76 _ 64 _ 98 __238 __ 724 Stormchaserchuck1 ________ 80 _ 88 _ 92 __ 260 __ 44 _ 78 _ 80 _ 202 _ 462 __ 66 _90 _100__256 __ 718 BKViking ___________________ 70 _ 80 _ 90 __ 240 __ 66 _ 72 _ 76 _ 214 _ 454 __ 80 _76 _ 82 __238 __ 692 Roger Smith ________________ 52 _ 64 _ 72 __ 188 __ 88 _ 74 _ 74 _ 236 _ 424 __ 86 _86 _ 90 __262 __ 686 RodneyS ____________________78 _ 98 _ 88 __ 264 __ 00 _ 52 _ 90 _ 142 _ 406 __ 86 _ 58 _ 98 __242 __ 648 Persistence (May 2025) ____ 84 _ 58 _ 84 __ 226 __ 00 _ 72 _ 70 _ 142 _ 368 __ 90 _ 84 _ 70 __244 __ 612 ___ Normal _________________88 _ 76 _ 68 __ 232 __ 28 _ 66 _ 66 _ 160 _ 392 __ 84 _ 56 _ 80 __220 __ 612 _________________ ==================== EXTREME FORECAST report NYC, BOS, ATL, IAH, DEN, PHX, SEA do not qualify as near consensus forecasts have high scores. DCA at +0.6 is a win for wxdude64 (+0.8) and a loss for coldest forecast RodneyS (-0.5) as well as a loss for Normal. ORD at +3.6 is a win for high forecast Roger Smith (+3.0) ATL at +2.0 would have been a win for wxallannj (+2.1) and a loss for Roger Smith (+3.0). However, it finished at +1.7 and was a win for third highest forecast (Tom). So it is not an extreme forecast after all. IAH at +1.8 to +2.4 would have been a win for RJay (+2.0) and a loss for Roger Smith (+3.0). However, it came in at +1.7, Scotty Lightning had the highest score (+1.5) and thus it is not an extreme forecast. This is one of the lowest number of extreme forecast validations in recent memory (2 of 9 and only one an outright win for most extreme forecast). Apparently in a treeless Central Park there likely would have been another extreme forecast validation (JFK was +2.6).

Well ... these two late forecasts are both on the hot side, I will at least mention in scoring where they would rank if they had been submitted on time. But official rankings will be confined to on-time entries.

Anomalies and projections ... _ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA _____ (anom 1-20) _____________ -0.9 _-0.9 _-0.2^ __+0.5 _+1.1 _+1.8 ___ +0.6 _+2.8 _+1.5 (21st) __ ( p anom 1-30 ) _______+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.5 __ +2.5 _+2.5 _+3.0 __ +2.0 _+3.0 _+1.0 (30th) __ ( anom 1-30 ) ________+0.6 _+1.2 _+1.6 __ +3.6 _+1.7 _+1.7 ___ +0.8 _+2.2 _+1.0 (these are now final and scoring will be adjusted) ... ... Seasonal max update moved to July thread (same post)

Very cool for late June in PAC NW, currently only 48-50 F at lower elevations of n Idaho and nw Montana, se BC, and snow is reported in mountain passes. A cold drenching rain here, not good for a weekend but great news for forest fire suppression. It is only 45F at my elevation (normal here is 80F).

Okay, so there were no last minute entries or edits, the table of forecasts remains as earlier posted (now two posts back) ... good luck ... by the way, Weather53, your win was two contests back, Jebman is the current (no show) defending champ. I seriously considered adding 2 to my forecasts but that usually backfires so I'll stick with the relatively moderate numbers I had. It would surprise me if this coming heat wave is the only serious attack on 100 all summer, only a small number of years have their seasonal max in June, off the top of my head I could say 1923, 1952, 1956, but more often a June record high is followed by some more later in the summer.