Roger Smith

Corn sweat. I recall dew points near or even above 90F in Iowa in summer of 1995.

I suppose philosophically you could argue, in the 1930s the central part of the U.S. was a dust bowl, it has been rescued from that condition and probably won't entirely return to it, so highs set in the 1930s all around the country should be modified for "climate continuity." But the fact is, those were real temperatures experienced by real people. Just as Central Park with all its trees is now the new reality there. It is what it is. We can compare values with that knowledge and form conclusions about what they mean about the "real climate." As to the new normal of interior western heat waves, that is not being caused by terrain modification (the terrain is the same as always) but by a weaker upper flow at those latitudes as the jet stream migrates north on average further into n.w. Canada. This is why we're seeing more frequent super heat waves in the west. It did happen in the past too but not as frequently. As one person told me, a national forest in Nevada is where you can see a tree from the shade of another tree. Lightning finds it pretty easy to pick those trees off one at a time, I've actually seen it happen. 98F here today, but the dew point in the 50s makes it relatively tolerable.

<<< July daily records for NYC 1869-2024 >>> (I know, trees, shade, blah blah) Notes: temps in brackets with low mins are that day's max if it wasn't the daily low max. 2d highest rainfalls are previous day and day reported ... July 1 would include June 30. if marked * are only observed on day (example 2.80" July 3, 1930, July 2 was dry). if marked ** were only from previous day, reporting day was dry (example 3.13" on July 7, 1884 provided 2d record July 7-8). DATE ____ High max ___ High min _____ Low max ____ Low min __________Max prec (r) _ Max 2d rain _ notes Jul 01 ___100 1901 ____ 79 2018 _______ 70 1869,71,88 _52 1943 (74) ______2.17 1933 ___ 3.71 1984 Jul 02 ___100 1901,66 _ 82 1901 _______ 67 1891 _____ 56 1888, 2011 ____1.79 1914 ___ 2.41 1914 Jul 03 ___103 1966 ____ 82 2002 _______64 1870,1914 __54 1933 (65) ______2.80 1930 ___ 2.80 1930* Jul 04 ___102 1949 ____ 81 2002 _______ 62 1978 _____55 1986 (77) ______ 1.76 1981 ___ 3.19 1967 (2.08+1.11) 2.91" 2d 1978 Jul 05 ___101 1999 ____ 82 1999 _______ 62 1882 _____ 53 1979 (69) ______ 3.07 1901 ___ 3.07 1901* Jul 06 ___103 2010 ____ 83 1999 _______ 61 1956 _____ 54 1979 (78) ______ 1.97 1896 ___ 4.33 1901 Jul 07 ___100 2010 ____ 84 1908 _______71 1914,43,87 _56 1914 __________ 3.13 1984 ___ 3.14 1984 Jul 08 ___100 1993 ____ 80 1993 _______ 66 2005 ____ 56 1894 (67) ______ 2.27 2021 ___ 3.13 1984** Jul 09 ___106 1936 ____80 1981^_______ 63 1964 _____54 1963 (78) ______ 2.06 2021 ___ 4.33 2021 Jul 10 ___102 1936,93__80 1993 _______ 65 1917 _____ 55 1890 (70) ______ 2.54 2020 ___ 2.33 2021__(2.32 1997) Jul 11 ___ 98 1988 _____ 79 1988 _______ 64 1914 _____ 57 1893, 98 _______ 1.94 1940 ___ 3.30 2020 __ 2.72" 2d 1874 (1.94+0.78) Jul 12 ___ 99 1966 ____ 79 1905 _______ 67 1990 _____ 57 1926 ___________ 2.68 1937 ___ 3.09 1937 Jul 13 ___101 1966 ____ 79 1876 _______ 67 1964 _____ 54 1888 (70) _____ 3.16 1972 ___ 3.16 1972* __ 2.83" 2d 1897 (0.54+2.29) Jul 14 ___100 1954 ____ 78 1952 _______ 73 2017^____ 58 1877,88,1926 __ 1.47 1908 ___ 3.16 1972** Jul 15 ___102 1995 ____ 84 1995 _______ 67 1926 _____57 1930 (78) 14th __ 1.80 1975 ___ 1.98 1975 tied 1.98 2000 (0.59+1.39) Jul 16 ___ 99 1980 ____ 80 1952 _______ 70 1933 _____ 56 1926, 46 _______ 1.50 1871 ___ 2.16 1926 (0.78+1.38) Jul 17 ___100 1953 ____ 82 1870 _______ 72 1992 _____57 1892 (76) ______ 3.13 1995 ___ 3.16 1995 __ 2.91 1877 Jul 18 ___101 1953 ____ 81 1900,2013 __ 66 1962 _____ 57 1925 (77) ______ 1.81 2022 ___ 3.36 1995 Jul 19 ___102 1977 ____ 83 2013 _______ 69 2000 _____57 1924 (77) 18th __ 1.82 1919 ___ 2.67 1919 Jul 20 ___101 1980 ____ 82 2015,19 ____ 69 1869 _____55 1890 (70) ______ 1.97 1889 ___ 2.77 1919 __ 2.22 1988 (0.94+1.28) Jul 21 ___104 1977 ____ 82 1980 _______ 66 1956 _____55 1890 (73) ______ 2.26 1983 ___ 2.99 1988 (1.28+1.71) Jul 22 ___104 2011 ____ 84 2011 _______ 69 1958 _____58 1871, 90 _______ 1.86 1880 ___ 2.50 1896 (1.06+1.44) Jul 23 ___100 2011 ____ 83 2011 _______70 1996^_____58 1871,90 _________ 2.41 1953 ___ 2.99 1946 __ also 2.70 1938 (0.30+2.40) Jul 24 ___ 97 1999,2010 _80 2010 _______ 67 1904 _____56 1893 (74) _____ 3.75 1997 ___3.75 1997 __ also 2.73 1938 (2.40+0.33) Jul 25 ___ 97 1999 ____ 80 1885 _______ 68 2013 _____57 1953 (79) ______ 1.64 1926 ___ 4.62 1997 __ 2.49 1975 (1.06+1.43) Jul 26 ___ 98 1940 ____ 79 1979 _______ 69 1901,2000_55 1920 (75) _____ 3.24 2000 ___ 3.24 1997*__ 2.91 1872 (1d) Jul 27 ___ 98 1940,63__78 1995 _______ 68 1897,2000_55 1920 (79) ______2.65 1889 ___ 4.37 2000 Jul 28 ___ 97 1999^____ 80 2020 _______68 1897 _____57 1903 (72 27th) _ 3.11 1913 ___ 3.11 1913*__ 3.06 1902 (1d) Jul 29 ___ 99 1949 ____ 79 1995, 2002 _ 69 1884 _____59 1914 (69 28th) _ 3.47 1980 ___ 3.47 1980* __ 3.14 1913 2d Jul 30 ___ 98 1988^____80 2002 _______ 68 1881,1914_57 1956 (75) ______ 3.56 1960 ___ 3.64 1971 (0.64+3.00) Jul 31 ___102 1933 ____ 82 1917 _______ 65 1923 _____ 57 1895, 1914 ______ 2.29 1889 ___ 3.56 1960**_ 3.13" 1971 2d ^ -- - - - - - - - - - -- trivia ... ^ min with the 1936 all-time record high max was 77. 1937 had 79 same date. Despite this, hundreds died of heat prostration in the 1936 heat wave. ^ low max tied July 14 in 1884, 1960, 1963, 2017 note 18th: 2022 replaced 2012 (1.72") ^ low max tied July 23 in 1894, 1909, 1969, 1992, 1996. ^ max for July 28 tied 1892, 1931, 1949, 1999. ^ max for July 30 tied 1917, 1933, 1940, 1988. ^ 2d rainfall July 30-31 3.00" 1918 (2.00+1.00) __________________________________________________________________

It would be similar because I tend to post estimated scoring around the 20th then open the thread for new forecasts, edit the scoring ... but it's not that difficult to find the scoring posts, they are usually before the first forecasts for the current month. I'll go back to the old system (this is the only year I have done it this way) if we keep going into 2026. By the way, all scoring is updated, NYC has "missing" for 30th in CF6, but Don posted on NYC forum that the anomaly was +1.2 and that seems to fit the 1.0 to 29th and daily departure on 30th climate report of +5 ... if I see anything different in days ahead assuming they update that CF6, I will edit the scoring. This was one of the highest scoring months in a while, everyone broke 600 (even Normal and Persistence). Tom with 788 probably has a new p.b., I track that in the Dec 2024 thread at present and haven't gone in there to update yet. That will all migrate to Dec 2025 eventually. The highest score ever in 12 years of contests has been 810. I think several in the contest would have broken that using my ORD forecast (or if I used all eight of yours except ORD). Probably what will make it easier for people in general will be if I migrate scoring tables to end of new forecasts (they are already at beginning of new forecasts). I will do that but I don't think it's that hard to find them, they are generally a lot uglier than the rest of the thread!

Calling all Vikings. ... Just polishing up the scoring for June and going into the update of annual scoring but I can see from how close the June scores are to each other that there cannot be huge changes in the annual contest, and basically, it's looking very competitive especially given the fact that previous years' usual leaders are a little back of the current leaders. I suspect it's going to be a fully-engaged battle for the title this year (if anyone cares about it that much).

The historical highlights missed the biggest event on this date, namely the peak of the Pacific NW - BC heat dome in 2021. On June 30, 2021 it was 44 C (112 F) here, breaking our all-time record by probably five degrees. It was 49 C (120 F) at Lytton BC, a hotspot every summer but in this case, it burned to the ground at 5 p.m. due to a train spark induced brush fire fanned by the hot up-valley winds. The town (formerly home to 1,200 people) remains largely in ruins now as local governments wrangle about who will pay what to rebuild it, and native groups request careful handling of possible archaeological remnants. Most of the buildings were reduced to ground slabs and scattered debris, if you went in there now it would look like any other ghost town, but its population want to restore it. I don't have the U.S. numbers handy but I'm pretty sure the peak of the heat wave was on June 28th to July 1st at all recording sites. (later edit, 116F at Portland on June 28, and 108F at SEA-TAC ... 117 F at Pendleton and Omak on June 29 and 116F in Spokane) ... There were hundreds of heat prostration deaths in the region. Various locations in BC, WA and OR got well above 110 F, coming close to all-time records if not breaking them (1898 had some of those, 1941 had others). Looks like the severe heat broke down on the coast by the 29th but remained inland to July 1-2, I recall it sort of fizzled out gradually in the first week of July and then the severe smoke episode began later in July as fires began to spread through BC and WA. We were under 594 dm thickness here for several days, so this was just like the heat they get routinely in Las Vegas and Phoenix, and it felt the same, heat radiating into your face but no cooling sprays along the sidewalks like they have in Vegas (I managed to hit Las Vegas for their August record high of 118 F in 2011, just on my way to much less torrid places higher up in southern Utah but that heat wave was very similar to the heat dome, only where it was supposed to be).

+1.7 __ +1.5 __ +1.3 __ +1.2 __ +2.0 __ +2.0 ___ +0.3 __ +1.5 __ +0.7 June scoring is back in thread, everyone did well so there won't be big changes in the annual scoring race which I will update in another "back in thread" post set aside to take on that work (before all July forecasts except wxdude64's early submission) ...

Just my usual reminder to NYC forecast contest regulars to get a forecast in on Monday 30th. And have a great 4th of July everybody.

Today's min of 77F at NYC was 1F off the 2021 record which replaced 1870 (77F) so it was tied second warmest for the date.

Bonus coverage, here's a list of benchmark record high minimum values (for NYC) ... I reverse them at the point where the trend line reverses in early February ... (going up) 51F __ Feb 5, 1991 (mildest in period Jan 28 to Feb 15) 56F __ Feb 16, 2023 58F __ Feb 24, 2018 63F __ Mar 10, 2016 66F __ Mar 31, 1998 68F __ Apr 9, 1991 70F __ Apr 14, 2023 74F __ Apr 17, 2002 76F __ Apr 18, 2002 77F __ June 1, 1895 78F __ June 4, 1943 79F __ June 10, 1984 80F __ June 23, 2025 81F __ June 24, 2025 82F __ July 2, 1901 83F __ July 6, 1999 84F __ July 7, 1908 (84F also July 15, 1995 and July 22, 2001) 84F __ Aug 14, 1908 (heading down now) 81F __ Aug 29, 2018 79F __ Sep 7, 1881 78F __ Sep 11, 1983 77F __ Sep 23, 1970 75F __ Oct 5, 1898 72F __ Oct 8, 2017 71F __ Oct 10, 2018 69F __ Oct 25, 1908 67F __ Nov 2, 1971 66F __ Nov 6, 2015, 2022 64F __ Nov 11, 2002, 2020 63F __ Dec 24, 2015 59F __ Jan 4, 1950 56F __ Jan 14, 1932 54F __ Jan 15, 1995 53F __ Jan 27, 1916 (and back to 51F Feb 5, 1991). ... very few of these are concurrent with high max benchmarks (Mar 2016, Apr 2002, Sep 1881). ... the midsummer situation is different, a plateau of four equal values, not one peak as in July 1936.

My NYC list has a different structure through winter, Don has used the calendar year to generate his list, and if I did that it would add a few, making Dec 24, 2015 (72F) a legitimate entry, then 70F Dec 29, 1984, 65F Dec 30 1984, 63F Dec 31, 1965, 62F Jan 1, 1966, 68F Jan 2, 1876 and 72F Jan 6, 2007. (next as per my list, 73F in Feb 1949 etc). The equivalent to my mid-winter reversal method for JFK, I think, would be to skip all the entries of 70F or lower in Dec, then 71F Jan 6, 2007, followed by February's highest value, and on to the listed values from March onwards. Or reverse in late January if there is a higher value than February there.

Thanks Don, I was going to say that I didn't have a list but you probably would be able to generate one.

That 99 in 1983 tied 1931 (Sep 11) but yes it was the latest in season. The next benchmarks are 97F on Sep 23, 1895 and 94F Oct 5, 1941, 91F Oct 10, 1939, and 90F Oct 17, 1938. Benchmarks after that are Oct 22 1979 (88F), Oct 23, 1947 (85F), Nov 1 and 2 1950 (84F, 83F), Nov 15 1993 (80F), Nov 20, 1985 (77F) , Dec 7 1998 (75F) and possibly Dec 24 2015 (72F). (a benchmark as you probably know is a latest occurrence in season, or an earliest from midwinter to midsummer). Benchmarks before the 1881 101F are (by definition) the all-time record 106F July 9, 1936, then 104F Aug 7, 1918, 103F Aug 26, 1948 and 102F Sep 2, 1953, 101F Sep 7, 1881. 2015 (Dec 24) at 72F is a partially invalid benchmark as it was also 72F on Jan 6, 2007 and Jan 26, 1950. These are probably the real benchmarks eliminating Dec 24, 2015 but another view would be only Jan 25, 1950 is a benchmark (falling) because the coldest day of winter is on average in early February. This is when the benchmarks reverse, so the set of spring into summer benchmarks are 73F (Feb 15, 1949), 78F Feb 21, 2018, 79F Mar 10, 2016, 85F Mar 13, 1990, 86F Mar 29, 1945, 92F Apr 7, 2010; 96F Apr 17, 2002; 99F May 19, 1962; 100F June 26, 1952, 101F June 27, 1966, and 103F July 3, 1966 before the ultimate 106F July 9, 1936. These are the only daily records that "really matter" in the sense that all others are not as impressive in terms of being earliest or latest occurrences. It's interesting how few of these are recent. If you only count the 72F in Jan 1950, then there are 29 benchmarks (one tied 1931,1983, and two cases of two consecutive in same year 1950 and 1966) and the median of the 26 years involved (1950 counts three times, 1966 twice) is 1952. The years counted are 1881 1895 1918 1931 1936 1938 1939 1941 1945 1947 1948 1950** 1952 1953 1962 1966* 1979 1983 1985 1990 1993 1998 2002 2010 (2007, 2015 not counted) 2016 2018 ... The benchmarks cluster noticeably from 1936 to 1953 (12 of 29), and 1979 to 2002 (7 more). There is no significant bias towards recent decades, with 29 benchmarks over 156 years, one would expect 4 since 2000 which is the case. The number established by 1918 (3) is well below random expectation (9). The only year with two non-consecutive benchmarks from the same spell of weather is 1950 (one in January, two in early November). But if Dec 2015 counted, the two closest in time (non-associated) would be that one and March 10, 2016. I'm not sure what name you could give an almost-benchmark, which would be a case like April 18, 1976, tying a benchmark and clearly a near-equal outlier (86F Mar 31 1998 would be another, as would 94F on Sep 23, 1914). I guess almost-benchmark is probably as good as we'll get. A benchmark can be erased as even a daily record, for example, April 7, 1929 (89F) was a benchmark until 2010 replaced it as both a daily record and benchmark. 1991 held a 90F benchmark set April 8, that one is still a daily record but was removed as a benchmark by 2010. May is the only month with only one benchmark. That is a sign of the extreme significance of the 1976 and 2002 April 96 readings, no date in early to mid-May exceeded them (before 1962, the benchmarks were 92F (Apr 27, 1915), 93F (May 12, 1881), 95F (May 25, 1880), 96F (May 31 1895, 1939) and 99F (June 4, 1925).

It was very similar to 1953 in timing and duration but not quite as intense, highs were often 95 to 98 and failed to break records but it was very hot (I was actually in NYC for one day during it, on a road trip). The records it did set were ties for max and min on 30th (98/78, ties with 1953 for the max and 2018 for the min). So it has the highest daily mean for Aug 30th.

That is correct, in fact it has not even hit 99 F from July 24 to 28. (99F on July 29, 1949). There's a similar lull in August from 16th to 25th with highest value 97F and even more pronounced, records of only 92F and 94F on Aug 23rd-24th. After August 25th the records generally pick up considerably although most are in a few years like 1948, 53, 73 and later 1881. Perhaps these are expectable random variations that will fill in after 250-300 years of records.

(in response to Don's chart of the distribution of highs after low of 63) ... Probably the 63 "low" associated with the 95 in 1925 was at end of day as that heat wave ended, so it wasn't a case of 63 warming to 95, but 95 cooling down to 63? Not sure about that but it looks that way. Urelated factoid, I recently updated a data base for NYC and found that the highest average temperature for the entire period of record occurs on July 18 for both max and min. (86, 70).

I may not always need to know minute by minute temperature variations five miles east of JFK, but when I do, this is where I come.

New weekly records were set June 19-25 for mean (82.64) and average minimum (74.56), replacing 2024 in both cases. The value for average maximum, 90.71 (record 91.86 set in 1923) was not a record. The three-day super-hot interval at end of this weekly interval was the main reason for it to register, and cooler temperatures on 26th resulted in averages falling just below record values except for average minimum which tied 1909. Also 18th to 24th fell short as it was not able to use the last very hot day.

There was a considerable urban heat island in 1948, actually, you could rate it as 60 to 70 per cent of the present urban heat island. Perhaps most of its influence would be on overnight lows. But even by around 1890 to 1900 large cities were beginning to display an urban heat island. Vehicle traffic is only a small component of the cause of a heat island, the main components are altered surface albedos and escape of building heat. People were heating their houses before they had cars. Also they had transformed the urban environments to allow horse and carriage movement (thus changing heat retention). The strength of an urban heat island falls off rapidly after the first 100,000 of population in an urban area is reached and begins for towns as small as 2,000 population based on extensive research by many climatologists. You'd perhaps be surprised how quickly an urban heat island develops and how slowly it increases once developed, if you hadn't done active research or read the literature. For my Toronto data I estimated the urban heat island began in the 1881-1890 decade (rated at 0.1 C differential then) and I took an arbitrary 0.1 increase each decade to 1971-1980 (adding 1.0 then). For 1981-1990 and the past 35 years I estimated it had stabilized at 1.1 C (2.0 F) deg. For NYC data I have assumed the same pace of change except that I would expect an increase had already begun for 1869 to 1880 so if I had data as far back as Toronto's 1840 startup, I would start modifying 1861-1870 at 0.2 F or 0.1 C and adding that amount every decade so the stable period of 1981-2025 would be actually +1.3 C (+2.34 F) relative to what NYC might record in an unaltered "rural" state. Now some might instantly say, but NYC is in a megalopolis much larger than greater Toronto, would it not warm up even more? Perhaps, but as I said, past 100,000 the rate of increase is very slow and probably past 5 million it cannot increase because the environment is so substantially altered on a regional basis. The strength of the greater New York heat island is probably well over +1.5 F out into parts of west central NJ near the end of suburban sprawl. As to the urban park question and temperature reductions in hot weather, that probably washes out of data sets fairly quickly as there aren't all that many hot days and the nights in question remain more affected anyway. Urban heat islands tend to be something like 75% minimum boosts and 25% maximum boosts, an estimate of a +2.0 heat island really means +1.0 for average maximum and +3.0 for average minimum. Large stretches of cloudy wet weather show very small urban heat island effects, dry and clear months would have larger differentials.

2025 reduced 1888 in the roster of all-time records, from 2.0 to 0.5 daily max, and from 1.5 to 0.5 high daily min (it still has a tie with 2015 for a December high min, and it retains a tie with 2025 for June 23rd max. 2025 also reduced 1909 from 4.0 to 2.0 daily records for high minimum values, and reduced 1952 to a one-third share of monthly high min. The counts for June 2025 are 1.5 and 3.0 daily records (max, min) and two-thirds share of the monthly record high min.

June scoring is updated in post before previous post (wxdude64 July forecast already entered). If this wraps on your screen, try a lower magnification setting. 90% works for me, 100% wraps. === ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for Jan-June 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: === FORECASTER ______DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__ west __ TOTALS Tom ___________________ 401 _438 _474 __1313 __364 _428 _386 __1178 _2491 __446 _416 _390__1252___3743 ___ Consensus ______ 381 _420 _444__1245__354 _474 _372_1200 _2445 _385 _410_460__1255___3700 hudsonvalley21 _______ 367 _434 _482 __1283 __302 _462 _387__1151__2434 __402 _402 _448__1252 ___3686 so_whats_happening __415 _448 _408 __1271 __338 _490 _349 __1177__2448 __348 _340 _458__ 1146 ___ 3594 RJay __________________ 366 _445 _ 463__1274 __392 _486 _370__1248 _2522__333 _319 _363__ 1015___ 3537 Scotty Lightning _______422 _428 _390 __1240 __279 _354 _392 __1025 _2265 __347 _470 _440__1257 ___3522 wxallannj ______________ 331 _368 _410 __ 1109 __ 346 _398 _364 __1108 _2217 __416 _408 _437__ 1261 ___3478 BKViking ______________ 300 _373 _393 __1066 __378 _446 _356__1180 _ 2246 __ 398 _396 _419__1213 ___3459 DonSutherland1 _______313 _362 _404 __1079 __342 _422 _334 __1098 _2177 __ 403 _368 _472__ 1243 ___3420 wxdude64 _____________340 _370 _390 __1100 __266_ 414 _330 __1010 _ 2110 __387 _390 _440__1217 ___3327 StormchaserChuck ___ 389 _394 _408 __1191 __244 _466 _ 279 __989 _ 2180 __ 379 _372 _393__1144 ___3324 RodneyS ______________ 366 _378 _414 __1158 __256 _352 _324 __932 _ 2090 __ 317 _374 _534__1225 ___ 3315 Roger Smith ___________326 _366 _386 __1078 __360 _408 _332 __1100 _2178 __244 _346 _421__ 1011 ___3189 ___ Normal _____________328 _378 _384 __1090 __270 _244 _ 187 __ 701__1791__368 _370 _440__ 1178 ___2969 maxim (2/6) ___________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __ 298__ 794 __ 92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total ... 3333 Persistence _____________200 _294 _406 __ 900 ___138 _268 _296 __ 702 _1602 __224 _282 _354 __ 860 ____2462 ____________________________ ________________________________ __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 tied for best score ________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS Tom ____________________ 1 __ 1^ _ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2^ __1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____2 __ Mar,Jun ___ Consensus _______ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___0 __ 1 ___0 ___0 hudsonvalley21 ________ 0 __ 2^__2 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1^ ___0 __ 0 ___2^^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____0 so_whats_happening __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1^ __ 1^ __ 1 ___ 2 ____0 RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2^__ 0 __ 1^ __ 2 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 1^ ___0 ____0 Scotty Lightning _______ 2^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 3 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 3*___1 ___ 1 ____0 wxallannj _______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1^ __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____0 BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1*__ 0 ___0 ____0 Don Sutherland 1 _______0 __ 1^__ 1*____0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 wxdude64 ______________1 __ 1 __ 1*___ 2 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____1 _ Jan StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 0 __ 0 ____2 ___ 1^__ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___0 __ 1^___ 1 ____ 0 _Apr RodneyS _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 1^ __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 _____1 _ May Roger Smith ____________ 1^ __ 2^__1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___1 __ 2^^__ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 _ Feb ___ Normal ______________ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 maxim __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1* ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 ============================== odd distribution of contest wins, 4/6 go to last four of five regular entrants in total scoring. (two to top scorer Tom) Extreme forecasts So far, 31 of 54 ... 16 for warmest and 15 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6, Jun 1-1 Forecaster ______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May _Jun __ Total___adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Rodney S ________________ 2-1 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 _0-1 __ 6-2 ___ 5.0 - 2.0 Scotty Lightning _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 __5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0.0 Roger Smith _____________ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 ___5-2 ___ 4.5 - 2.0 hudsonvalley21 __________ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0 __4-1 ___ 3.5 - 0.0 Stormchaser Chuck ______0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 _ 0-0 __4-3 ___ 3.5 - 3.0 ___ Normal _______________ 1-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 _0-1 __ 3-2 ____ 3.0 - 2.0 maxim ____________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __ 3-0 ___ 2.33-0.0 Tom ______________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 _ 0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.5 - 0.0 RJay ______________________0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 ___ 1.0-0.0 so_whats_happening ____ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __0-0 __2-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 Don Sutherland __________ 1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 ____1.33-0.0 wxdude64 ________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 __ 2-0 ____ 1.33-0.0 BKViking _________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 wxallannj _________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 =========================================================

Anything is possible for forecasters with higher values than this heat wave produced, it's probably 50-50 whether a warmer spell comes along or not ... 1952 had similar heat and repeated it in mid-July. Some other years never got back to the June peaks they saw (1943 for one example, I think). The 1952 repeat was something like July 14-17.

Current scoring as of June 25th I have added the two late forecasts to table to keep track of their unofficial rankings. These two late forecasts are not included in contest consensus. Their ranks will not alter any forecaster ranks for on-time "official" entries. A decimal rank indicates a position between two official ranks. Actual values ___________________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 FORECASTER _________________ DCA _IAD _BWI _RIC ___ errors ____ TOTAL (rank) __ error points baked in Jebman (L-2) __________________ 106 _ 103 _ 102 _ 101 ___ 7 6 3 2 __ 18 (rank 22) ____ 0 Miss Pixee (L-1) ________________ 104 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 5 4 3 1 __ 13 (rank 18.5) __ 0 gopper (16) ____________________ 103 _ 102 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 4 5 3 3 __ 15 (rank 19) ____ 0 batmanbrad (19) _______________ 103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 4 4 3 1 __ 12 (rank 18) ____ 0 Roger Ramjet (20) _____________ 102 _ 101 _ 103 _ 103 ___ 3 4 4 4 __ 15 (rank 20)____ 0 tplbge (14) _____________________ 102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 ___ 3 3 2 2 __ 10 (rank 15) ____ 0 DanTheMan (8) ________________ 101 _ 103 _ 104 _ 103 ___ 2 6 5 4 __ 17 (rank 21)____ 0 Roger Smith (1) _________________ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 2 4 3 1 __ 10 (rank 16) ____ 0 GramaxRefugee (18) ____________100 _ 101 _ 102 _ 101 ___ 1 4 3 2 __ 10 (rank 17) ____ 0 biodhokie (17) __________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 ___ 1 4 2 1 ___ 8 (rank 14) ____ 0 wxdude64 (13) _________________ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 100 ___1 3 3 1 ___ 8 (rank 13) ____ 0 George BM (2) _________________ 100 __ 99 _ 101 _ 101 ___ 1 2 2 2 ___ 7 (rank 12) ____ 0 ___ consensus _________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 __ 0 2 1 1 ___ 4 (rank 9) ____ 0 MillvilleWx (7) ___________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 0 2 1 3 ___ 6 (rank 11)____ 0 Rhino16 (5) ______________________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 0 2 0 2 ___ 4 (rank 10)____ 0 Jenkins Jinkies (9) ______________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ___ 0 2 0 1 ___ 3 (rank 8) ____ 0 NorthArlington101 (6) ____________99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 ___ 0 2 0 0 ___ 2 (rank 4) ____ 0 RickinBaltimore (10) _____________ 99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___ 0 1 1 0 ___ 2 (rank 3) ____ 1 WxUSAF (4) _____________________ 99 __ 97 _ 100 __ 99 ___0 0 1 0 ___ 1 (rank 1) ____ 0 toolsheds (12) ___________________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 0 0 0 2 ___ 2 (rank 5) ____ 0 Weather53 (21) __________________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ___1 2 1 0 ___ 4 (rank 9)____ 1 nw baltimore wx (3) _____________ 98 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 ___ 1 1 0 0 ___ 2 (rank 2) ____ 1 Its A Breeze (11) _________________ 98 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___ 1 1 1 0 ___ 3 (rank 6) ____ 2 Prince Frederick Wx (15) ________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 ___ 1 0 1 1 ___ 3 (rank 7) ____ 3 ____________________________ see original post for tie-breaker protocols ... error points "baked in" are those from forecasts below actual values, these error points cannot now be reduced. Consensus is median of forecasts. The mean of forecasts is 99.9, 99.5, 100.4, 100.3 or 100 _ 100 _ 100 _ 100, Of 21 forecasts, nine have all locations at 100 or higher, five have no locations reaching 100F, seven have a blend. Ranges are 98-103, 97-103, 98-104, 98-103

Update, BWI 99 is the only upgrade today, RIC tied 99 already set. 96 at both DCA and IAD. I will edit the scoring table ...

Is today's min going to persist to end of the calendar day? I suspect maybe something like an evening low of 76?