Roger Smith

Final scoring for November 2025 IAH raw scores were all below 50, boosted to max-60 by scoring all from +4.9 instead of the actual +5.7 ... as rank order scoring would have been less equitable and DEN scoring turned out to be raw scores as max raw score was 69. FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA _ west __TOTAL RJay ____________________88 _ 64 _70 _ 222 _ 94 _80 _52_226_448_69 _92 _92 _253___701 wxallannj _______________88 _ 64 _70 _ 222 _ 66 _80_60 _206_ 428 _55 _74 _78 _207 ___635 DonSutherland1 ________ 92 _ 68 _76 _ 236 _ 80 _70 _46 _196 _ 432 _53 _72 _76 _201 ___633 ___ consensus __________88 _ 68 _76 _ 232 _ 88 _58 _38 _184 _ 416 _35 _70 _74 _ 179 __595 yoda ____________________88 _ 68 _78 _ 234 _ 86 _56 _40 _182 _ 416 _37 _70 _72 _179 ___595 RodneyS ________________84 _ 82 _84 _ 250 _ 92 _20 _40 _152 _ 402 _59 _42 _88_ 189 ___591 Tom ____________________86 _ 68 _76 _ 230 _100_58 _36_194_ 424_ 31 _64 _64 _ 159 ___583 BKViking _______________ 82 _ 62 _70 _ 214 _ 98_58 _38 _194_ 408_ 35 _60 _68 _ 163 ___571 so_whats_happening ___86 _ 56 _52 _ 194 _ 94 _52 _44 _190 _384_ 41 _70 _74 _ 185 ___569 Ephesians2 _____________62 _ 96 _80 _ 238 _ 28 _20 _32 _080 _318 _33 _98 _82 _213 ___531 hudsonvalley21 ________ 80 _ 52 _64 _ 196 _ 80 _66 _26 _172_ 368_ 37 _52 _52 _ 141 ___509 Scotty Lightning ________88 _ 64 _70 _ 222 _ 88 _60 _32 _180 _ 402 _05 _42 _58 _105 ___507 Roger Smith ____________ 64 _ 88 _76 _ 228 _ 32 _00 _20 _052 _280 _23 _92 _74_ 189 ___469 ___ Normal _____________ 92 _ 84 _90 _ 266 _78 _30 _00 _108 _ 374 _ 00 _22 _58 _080 ___454 wxdude64 ______________ 48 _ 56 _56 _ 160 _ 12 _ 00 _00 _012 _ 172 _05 _38 _100 _ 138___310 -------------- Persistence (Oct 2025) _ 82 _72 _58 _ 212 _ 40 _56 _86 _182 _ 394_ 41 _40 _48 _ 129 ___ 523 --------------- EXTREME FORECAST REPORT (for regular and new participants, separate logs) NYC _ (-0.8) A win for Roger Smith (second lowest forecast, regular forecasters) and a loss for wxdude64 (lowest forecast), Ephesians2 credited with wins also. ATL, IAH _ Wins for wxallannj (for ATL tied with RJay) for highest forecasts. DEN _ Win for RJay (highest forecast) PHX _ Shared win RJay and Roger Smith, also Ephesians2 credited with a win. SEA _ Any outcome above +1.9 gives wxdude64 a win and Ephesians2 a loss. An outcome closer to +1.7 would give RJay a win and both of the others a loss. DCA, BOS and ORD did not qualify for extreme forecasts. (note of explanation, when new forecasters participate their achievements are ranked separately so that we have a log of results within the group of regular forecasters, and a record of the new person's wins or losses, same applies to best forecasts in the annual update) (forecasts) FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___DEN _PHX _SEA hudsonvalley21 ___________ +1.4 _+1.6 _+1.3 ___+0.1 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___ +2.2 _+1.5 _ -0.3 BKViking __________________ +1.3 _+1.1 _ +1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.5 so_whats_happening _____ +1.1 _ +1.4 _+1.9 ___+1.4 _ +1.1 _+2.1 ___ +2.4 _+2.4 _+0.8 Tom _______________________ +1.1 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+1.1 _+1.4 _+1.7 ___ +1.9 _+2.1 _+0.3 wxallannj __________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +2.8_+2.5 _+2.9 ___ +3.1 _+2.6 _+1.0 RJay ______________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.8_+2.5 _+2.5 ___ +3.8 _+3.5 _+1.7 Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 __0.0 ___ consensus ____________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.5 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+2.4 _+0.8 yoda ______________________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.6 ___+0.4 _+1.3 _+1.9 ___ +2.2 _+2.4 _+0.7 DonSutherland1 __________ +0.8 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.1 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+0.9 ___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 RodneyS __________________ -0.4 _+0.1 _+0.3 ___ +1.5 _-0.5 _+1.9 ___ +3.3 _+1.0 _+1.5 Roger Smith _______________-1.4 _ -1.4 _ -1.7 ___ -2.3 _ -2.5 _+0.9 ___ +1.5 _+3.5 _+0.8 Ephesians2 _______________ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.5 ___ -2.5 _ -0.5 _ +1.5 ___ +2.0 _+4.0 _+3.0 wxdude64 ________________ -2.2 _-3.0 _-2.7 ___ -3.3 _ -1.5 _ -0.4 ___ +0.5 _+0.8 _+2.1 -------------- Persistence (Oct 2025) ___ -0.5 _+0.6 _+1.6 ___+4.1 _+1.3 _+4.2 ___+2.4 _+0.9 _-0.5 --------------- The following will be edited to include NOV scoring and posted into the next post currently announcing the December and snowfall contests. I will keep editing it here until I am ready to move it down to there. === ::: [] <<<<<< Annual Scoring for Jan-Nov 2025 >>>>>> [] ::: === FORECASTER _____DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __TOTALS ___ Consensus ______ 725 _762 _812_ 2299 __718 _772 _736_ 2226 _4525__736_828_896__2460 __6985 Tom __________________751 _778 _852__2381__724 _706 _732__2162 _4543 __793 _818 _828__2439__6982 so_whats_happening _ 759 _784 _764__2307__732 _772 _677__ 2181 _4488 __727 _750 _858__2335___6823 hudsonvalley21 _______683 _744 _828__2255__656 _746 _725 __2127 _4382 __771 _766 _876__2413___6795 RJay _________________ 658 _747 _ 791__2196__754 _814 _746__2314 _4510 __690 _725 _813 __2228___6738 Scotty Lightning ______746 _812 _776__2334__613 _682 _732 __2027 _4361 __682 _832 _836__2350___6711 DonSutherland1 ______ 661 _706 _782__2149__714 _758 _678__ 2150 _4299 __782 _754 _852__2388___6687 wxallannj _____________647 _682 _744__2073__638 _724 _740__2102 _4175 __761 _824 _839 __2424___6599 RodneyS _____________ 724 _720 _812__2256__580 _578 _692__1850 _4106 __704 _728 _982__2414___6520 Roger Smith __________ 582 _704 _716__2002__672 _626 _694__1992 _3994 __563 _774 _813__ 2150___6144 wxdude64 ____________622 _696 _690__2008__456_ 632 _606__1694 _3702 __702 _762 _860__2324___6026 -------------- StormchaserChuck ___585 _624 _662 __1871 __482 _682 _ 587__1751 _ 3622 __667 _698 _687__2052___5674 - - - (10/11) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __ 6241 ___ Normal ____________710 _748 _744 __2202 __556 _490 _421__1467__3669 __700 _650 _814__2164__5833 BKViking (9/11) ______ 506 _543 _607 __1656 __528 _640 _502__1670 _3326 __583 _638 _639__1860 __ 5186 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __6387 Yoda _(4/11) ___________236 _262 _282 __ 780 __ 278 _ 258 _280 __816 _1596 __283 _298 _324 __905__2501 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total __6878 maxim (2/11) __________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __298__ 794 __92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __6111 Ephesians2 _ (2/11) ____ 66 _132 _142 __ 340 ___102 _ 66 _ 120 _ 288 ___628 _ 105 _194 _182 ___481 ____1109 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __6083 Persistence ___________496 _586 _704 __1786 ___404 _476 _692 _1572 _3358__548 _600 _744 __1892___5250 __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 - 5 tied for best score ____________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__TOTALS ___ Consensus _______ 2*__ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1___ 0___0 Tom ___________________2 *__ 1^ _ 3^ __ 1 ___ 3 ___2^ __2^___1 ___1 ___ 0 __ 2 ___2^__ 2___2 _Mar,Jun so_whats_happening __ 1 *__ 1 __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 2^__ 2^^ _1 ___ 2 ___0 hudsonvalley21 ________ 1 *__ 2^__2 ___1 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 2^ ___0 __ 0 ___2^^__ 1 __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___ 2^__2^^__3^^__4__ 1 ___ 2^__ 2^*__2^^__1___ 1 _Nov Scotty Lightning _______ 3^*__1^__ 1^___0 ___ 0 __1^__ 3 ___ 0 __0 ___ 0 __ 3*___ 1 ___1 ____1 _Sep(t) Don Sutherland 1 _______2 *__ 1^__ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 __1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 0 ___0 ___0 wxallannj _______________1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __1^ __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1^ __ 1^__0 ___0 ____0 RodneyS _______________ 1 __ 1 __ 3^ __ 3 ___ 2 __ 2^ __1^ __ 3 ___3 ___1 __ 1 ___ 4^___1 ____3 _ May,Aug,Oct wxdude64 _____________ 1 __ 3^__ 1*___2 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 2 ___0 __0___ 0 ____1 _ Jan Roger Smith ____________2^__4^^__2^__ 2 ___3 ___3^^__3^^__1___2 ___1^__ 3^^__ 0 ___1 ____3 _ Feb,Jul,Sep(t) StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 1^__ 1 ____2 ___ 1^__ 1 ___1 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___0 __ 2^^__1 ____0 _Apr BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____1 ___2^*__0___0___0 ___ Normal ______________3 __ 2 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___0 maxim __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1* ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___1 ___ 1 __ 0 ___1 ___0 Ephesians2 _____________ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ============================== (tie for Consensus or Normal is not a tie for forecaster(s)) Extreme forecasts _ So far, 57 of 99 ... 30 for warmest and 27 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6, Jun 1-1, Jul 1-1, Aug 1-6, Sep 5-1, Oct 2-3, Nov 5-1. (table scoring order is by adjusted totals for ties) Forecaster ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_Jul _Aug _Sep _Oct_Nov __ Total___adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Rodney S ______________ 2-1 _1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 _0-1_0-0 _4-0 _1-0 _1-1 __0-0 ___ 12-3 ___11.0 - 3.0 Roger Smith ___________ 0-0 _3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _1*-0_1*-0_4^-0_0-0_2 *-0 __14-2__ 9.5 - 2.0 ___ Normal _____________ 1-0 _0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 _0-1 _1-0 __2-0 _1-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 ___9-2 ___ 9.0 - 2.0 Scotty Lightning _______ 1-0 _0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0_0-0_ 0-1 _3^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___8-1 ____6.5 - 1.0 RJay ____________________0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 _ 0-0_1 *-0_0-0_1*-0_1*-0_3**0 __8-0 ___ 4.5-0.0 Stormchaser Chuck ____ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0_1*-0 _ 0-0 __ 5-3 ____ 4.0 - 3.0 hudsonvalley21 _________1*-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0_ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0_2*-0_ 0-0 __6-1 ___ 5.0 - 0.0 wxdude64 ______________1^-0_ 0-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0_0-0 __1-0 _0-1 _ 2*-0 _1-1 ___6-2 ____4.83-2.0 Tom ____________________0-0 _0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 _ 0-0_0-0 _0-0_1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __4-0 ___3.0 - 0.0 maxim __________________1^-0_0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 __3-0 ___2.33-0.0 so_whats_happening ___ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __0-0_1-0 __0-0 _0-0_0-0 _ 0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.0 - 0.0 Ephesians2 _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0_ 0-0_1-1 _ 2-1 __ 3-2 ___ 3.0 - 2.0 Don Sutherland _________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _0-0 ___2-1 ____1.33-1.0 BKViking _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 ___1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 wxallannj _______________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _1*-0_0-0_0-0 _2*-0 __3-0__ 2.0 - 0.0 ^ (note: For Sep wins, Roger Smith and Scotty Lightning tied three, not shown by * symbols but calculated into adjusted scores) =========================================================

Anomalies to 23rd and projections to end of November ... ______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ (anom 1-23) _____+0.4 _ -1.1 _ -1.6 __ +2.3 _+4.7 _ +5.6 __+8.3 _+4.2 _ +2.8 ___ ( p anom 1-30) ___-0.5 _ -1.5 _-2.0 __ +1.0 _+3.0 _+4.0 __ +5.0 _+3.0 _ +1.5 ___ (adjusted >>final) 0.4 ^_ -0.8 _-0.5 __ +1.1 _+3.5 _+5.4__ +5.7 _ +3.9 _ +2.1 Above I have posted final anomalies for each location. ^ __ DCA has two missing days and the CF6 shows a departure of 0.0. The two days (12th, 17th) had anomalies of +7 and +5 at IAD, which had a monthly departure of +1.0. As 12 degree days applied to 30 days gives a true anomaly of +0.4, that will be the contest value (I will check later versions and adjust if DCA adds this missing data and revises the 0.0). (previous notes 23rd to 29th) Very cold air is going to spread into DEN after 28th knocking down that large positive considerably; otherwise just a bit colder in most locations than it has been on average ... will post the preliminary scoring and adjust it on the 1st of December when these values are better defined. (Note DCA anom includes two missing days, not looking like it would be much different if those days were included). DEN has also been very dry, precip to date is only 0.08" for November. Some snow is expected with the cold wave. I notice NYC is also running quite dry at just over one inch of rain to date. (on 29th I posted what look like the finishing anomalies within 0.5 ... may have to adjust DCA as there are two missing days and both were around +5 to +7 at other regional sites ... the impact of colder air has been a little less than projected so most of these anomalies are up slightly ... preliminary scoring about to become final scoring now being adjusted also.

No snow cover below 4500' around here, just a cold drizzly rain, low overcast becoming fog above my elevation (which is 3500'). A thin snow cover in the alpine possibly 3-5" tops.

I was reading that the wind was about to reverse over the North Pole -- but if you think about it, the wind at the North Pole has to be either calm or southerly.

The anomalies to mid-month are roughly near normal in the east to +5 F in parts of the west. A somewhat colder interval lies ahead for most regions, with variations the final anomalies look likely to be near normal east to +3 west. I will track this more precisely in about a week and post some preliminary scoring.

I don't foresee anything very different from the above, would just add that there may be potential for some heavy lake effect snowfall events and large temperature variations in the Midwest that could include a few episodes of near-record cold there. This makes me wonder if the snowfall anomaly will be highly positive in the upper Midwest trailing southwest and with a secondary maximum over the central Rockies. I think the east coast will be lucky to see one major coastal storm but could have a half dozen moderate snowfall events from redeveloping lows.

Boston, MA _____ 47" NewYork, NY(Central Park) ____ 24" Philadelphia, PA ___ 23" Baltimore, MD ____ 17" Washington, DC __ 13" Albany ___ 62" Hartford, CT __ 50" Providence, RI ___ 38" Worcester, MA ___ 77" Hyannis, MA ____ 28" Burlington, VT __ 87" Portland, ME ____ 70" Concord, NH ____ 67" Above normal snowfall will be mostly confined to some snow belts of Great Lakes, and parts of the upper Midwest, parts of Colorado, Wyoming and Utah. Storm track will often be across the Ohio valley into northern New England, and infrequently near the east coast, but it won't be as mild a winter as some of the past few. Snow will be generally around 80% of long-term normals for most of the northeast and mid-Atlantic regions.

Would you say all of that 4" fell on Sunday, or if not, what portion fell on Monday? The only heavier snowfall for Nov 9th was 5.6" in 1921. That date also set a low maximum record for the date (30F). The snowfall record for Nov 10 for Toronto (downtown location) was 5.5" in 1898 and 7.0" fell Nov 9-10 1898 at that location.

The old penalty structure was probably too harsh and would tend to inhibit people from posting relatively not-so-late forecasts, but having absolutely no late penalties is not that good either long-term, I will give it some thought for 2026 if we keep going, and have late penalties that make sense. Other contests that I am involved with have much more routine late penalties that are applied automatically (whether by me or some other person running a contest). The turnout for those is larger, which tends to mean that the contest organizer(s) are not as wary of annoying people with late penalties. I think as a scientific question, there is usually no more skill shown on 2nd or 3rd than there is on 1st or day before that. The late penalty concept for a monthly forecast contest is mostly to encourage on-time entries so everyone feels equally likely to do well and also so the organizer can get the table of forecasts done and move on to their normal routines. Sooner or later somebody is going to crush that 810 barrier, this could be the month, never know.

Nov 9-13 may be the only five day interval where some or most people reading this were alive when NYC set its daily record low. After the 9th (1976) two were set in 2017 and two in 2019 (probably on same nights rather than two consecutive nights in each case). Two out of three of the winters following these unusual record lows were of course good ones, 2019-20 closer to average by recent standards. Add to this the 2012 snowfall event and this is one of the few times of year to outperform the classic climate of the past in terms of producing cold weather and snow. Not that this necessarily would affect the 30-year average, I suppose there have also been intervals that were well above normal to compensate. The ones that come to mind are a bit earlier such as 1975, 2022 and 2024.

BWI 16.7" DCA 14.5" IAD 16.9" RIC 12.0" SBY 9.8" numerous small events and one moderate event in a fast flow highly variable pattern

__ Table of forecasts for November 2025 __ FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___DEN _PHX _SEA hudsonvalley21 ___________ +1.4 _+1.6 _+1.3 ___+0.1 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___ +2.2 _+1.5 _ -0.3 BKViking __________________ +1.3 _+1.1 _ +1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.5 so_whats_happening _____+1.1 _ +1.4 _+1.9 ___+1.4 _ +1.1 _+2.1 ___ +2.4 _+2.4 _+0.8 Tom _______________________ +1.1 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+1.1 _+1.4 _+1.7 ___ +1.9 _ +2.1 _+0.3 wxallannj __________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +2.8_+2.5 _+2.9 ___ +3.1 _+2.6 _+1.0 RJay ______________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.8_+2.5 _+2.5 ___ +3.8 _+3.5 _+1.7 Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 __0.0 ___ consensus ____________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.5 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+2.4 _+0.8 yoda ______________________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.6 ___+0.4 _+1.3 _+1.9 ___ +2.2 _+2.4 _+0.7 DonSutherland1 __________ +0.8 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.1 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+0.9 ___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 RodneyS __________________ -0.4 _+0.1 _+0.3 ___ +1.5 _-0.5 _+1.9 ___ +3.3 _+1.0 _+1.5 Roger Smith _______________-1.4 _ -1.4 _ -1.7 ___ -2.3 _ -2.5 _+0.9 ___ +1.5 _+3.5 _+0.8 Ephesians2 _______________ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.5 ___ -2.5 _ -0.5 _ +1.5 ___ +2.0 _+4.0 _+3.0 wxdude64 ________________ -2.2 _-3.0 _-2.7 ___ -3.3 _ -1.5 _ -0.4 ___ +0.5 _+0.8 _+2.1 -------------- Persistence (Oct 2025) ___ -0.5 _+0.6 _+1.6 ___+4.1 _+1.3 _+4.2 ___+2.4 _+0.9 _-0.5 --------------- Highest and lowest forecasts are color coded; Normal is colder than all forecasts for DEN and PHX.

Re the approaching Newfoundland windstorm, you don't often see changes this rapid and dynamic at a weather buoy site such as this one to the south of western Newfoundland ... winds went from east 40 knots to south 50-70 knots to west 50-65 knots in about three hours and the temperature spiked at 20 C (68 F). I see reports already of southeast winds gusting to 100 km/hr in southeast Newfoundland but I wonder if the public forecast is strongly worded enough for the gusts that are going to hit there in about 2-3 hours from now? http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44139

Quite the windstorm developing overnight to hit southeast Newfoundland (Avalon Pen) on Tuesday, winds could be near 150 km/hr in gusts. Low deepens to 945 mb as it approaches the Terra Nova area. I wonder if this is a sign of explosive development potential for lows later on in the approaching winter season in the general area? Then the next one along on Wednesday night develops rapidly off Nova Scotia and could bring 2-4" snowfalls to Atlantic Canada and eastern Maine towards conclusion of storm precip Thursday morning, but it looks like just a few wind blown flurries for New England otherwise, maybe scattered 0.5 to 1.0 inch snow over higher terrain .... are Lake Champlain snow squalls possible? ... there are some unusually cold air masses for this early showing up.

I have lost track of what late penalties I applied to whom in the past so, given the fact your position is identical to mine (hopelessly adrift of the leaders) I won't bother to penalize this one. If we keep going in 2026, I am going to have to bring late penalties up to date with current practices and expectations, what I said in the past was going to result in quite a few very large late penalties in 2025 but there are some forecasters here who are never late and they probably feel a bit put out by overly lenient policies too. The problem for me is, the contest is well supported by a loyal group but at the same time we have pretty close to the bare minimum number participating to make it worthwhile, and I am trying to balance the fairness aspect with the existence altogether of the contest. Anyway, same goes for StormchaserChuck who has not posted yet, he's in the chase-the-chase pack with you and me, it really doesn't matter much if we reduce our scores even further, any one of us could win November and December and still finish 700 points back of Tom and hudsonvalley21 and 300 back of the chase pack behind the leaders. I am just trying to stay clear of Normal at this point. General note -- all scoring updated and checked over, back in the thread before November forecasts.

Worth noting one record set at NYC in October was daily rainfall on Oct 30, 1.83" replaces 1.64" (1917). Now that's a good year to be copying, right?

I posted these ideas in other subforums ... I could see this being a highly variable winter with some potent cold shots, flow generally about 260 to 290 deg most of the time, so lake effect quite powerful at times, probably the sort of pattern that could relax to allow coastals once or twice. In the mix would be some +7 to +12 F spells of mild Pacific sourced air masses, even super-cold patterns like 1917-18 and 1933-34 had some milder spells (in fact Jan 1934 was much milder than both Dec 1933 and Feb 1934). So a warmer climate version of those kinds of winters, possibly 1970-71 or 1983-84 could be similar? Not as mild as recent winters and not an all-time cold although one spell could produce a few record cold days. Snow would be lucky to get to near normal but seems unlikely to fall below 50% of normal in northeast coastal regions, probably a bit above normal interior New England. and would add more specific to this region, one or two blizzards likely on tracks from Nebraska to n MO to s IN-OH, frequent strong lake effect downwind of L Michigan and L Huron, very large temperature oscillations likely as Pacific mild and arctic cold air masses alternate in a fast flow with frequent alternations but one or two spells of deep cold centered on the Midwest region. Yours may be the "it" sub-forum for winter 2025-26. Could be similar to that recent winter when MLI, MSP set snowfall records? was that 2020-21? I recall it from snowfall contests we used to have in this subforum.

I recently posted this in the New England subforum and it would apply to NYC subforum as well ... I could see this being a highly variable winter with some potent cold shots, flow generally about 260 to 290 deg most of the time, so lake effect quite powerful at times, probably the sort of pattern that could relax to allow coastals once or twice. In the mix would be some +7 to +12 F spells of mild Pacific sourced air masses, even super-cold patterns like 1917-18 and 1933-34 had some milder spells (in fact Jan 1934 was much milder than both Dec 1933 and Feb 1934). So a warmer climate version of those kinds of winters, possibly 1970-71 or 1983-84 could be similar? Not as mild as recent winters and not an all-time cold although one spell could produce a few record cold days. Snow would be lucky to get to near normal but seems unlikely to fall below 50% of normal in northeast coastal regions, probably a bit above normal interior New England. Will add for NYC, my prediction is 18-23 inches for NYC, 15-20 for JFK, 23-28 for EWR, 30-40 s CT and parts of LI. A more average sort of winter by modern standards at least. I think the big weather stories will be in the Midwest with huge temperature swings and some powerful lake effect storms at times. Probably one decent coastal snowstorm somewhere like mid to late January into early February.

I could see this being a highly variable winter with some potent cold shots, flow generally about 260 to 290 deg most of the time, so lake effect quite powerful at times, probably the sort of pattern that could relax to allow coastals once or twice. In the mix would be some +7 to +12 F spells of mild Pacific sourced air masses, even super-cold patterns like 1917-18 and 1933-34 had some milder spells (in fact Jan 1934 was much milder than both Dec 1933 and Feb 1934). So a warmer climate version of those kinds of winters, possibly 1970-71 or 1983-84 could be similar? Not as mild as recent winters and not an all-time cold although one spell could produce a few record cold days. Snow would be lucky to get to near normal but seems unlikely to fall below 50% of normal in northeast coastal regions, probably a bit above normal interior New England.

<<<<< NOVEMBER daily records at NYC 1869-2024 >>>>> DATE ____ High max __ High min ___ Low max __ Low min __ Max prec (r) _Max 2d rain_ Max snow Nov 01 ___ 84 1950 ____ 65 1956 _______ 41 1869,75 _ 30 1869, 1877 ____ 1.69 1988 ___ 2.83 1956 __ 0.1 1887 Nov 02 ___ 83 1950 ____ 67 1971 _______ 41 1875,95 _ 30 1887 (43 1st) __ 1.70 1954 ___ 2.29 1897 __ Tr 1895, 1954 Nov 03 ___ 79 2003 ____ 64 1936 ______ 37 1879 _____ 28 1875 __________2.60 1910 ___ 2.60^1910* _ Tr 1951,58,62 Nov 04 ___ 78 1975 ____ 62 1982 _______ 35 1879 _____ 25 1879 __________1.55 1950 ___ 3.37 1910 __ no snow (latest) Nov 05 ___ 78 1961 ____ 64 2022^______ 35 1879 _____ 23 1879 __________1.94 1984 ___ 1.96 1985^__ 0.1 1933 Nov 06 ___ 80 2024^__ 66 2015,22 ____38 1878,1953_27 1879 (40) ______1.47 1911 ___ 1.94 1984**_ 2.5 1879 (2.2 1953) Nov 07 ___ 78 1938 ____ 63 1938 _______ 41 2012^_____ 29 1930 (43) ____ 2.96 1963 ___ 4.23 1963 __ 4.3 2012 Nov 08 ___ 76 1975 ____ 63 1975 _______ 38 1886 _____ 29 1886, 2019 ____ 7.40 1977^___ 9.19 1977 __ 0.4 2012 (4.7 2d) Nov 09 ___ 75 1975,2020_ 64 1895 _____ 37 1894 _____ 24 1976 (41) _____3.65 1889 ___ 7.40 1977**_ 2.3 1892 Nov 10 ___ 74 2020 _____60 2020^______ 38 1873 _____ 25 2017 (51) _____1.70 1990 ___ 3.68 1889 __ Tr 1877,1971,87 Nov 11 ___ 74 1949 ____ 64 2002, 2020 _ 33 1987 _____ 24 2017 (38) ____1.41 1995 ___ 1.71 1987^__ 1.1 1987 Nov 12 ___ 76 1879 ____ 60 2022* _____ 38 1894 _____ 25 2019 _________ 1.82 1975 ___ 2.39 1947^__ Tr (2013^) Nov 13 ___ 73 1931 ____ 59 1909 _______ 33 1911 _____ 23 2019 (34) ______ 2.06 1937 ___ 2.19 1937 __ Tr (2014^) Nov 14 ___ 72 1993 ____ 58 1951 _______ 29 1873 _____ 20 1905 (36) ______2.23 1972 ___ 2.23 1972* _ 1.0 1911 Nov 15 ___ 80 1993 ____ 61 1989 _______ 32 1933 _____ 20 1967 (35 16th) _ 2.43 1892 ___ 2.43 1892*_ 6.4 2018 Nov 16 ___ 72 1928 ____ 59 2006 _______29 1883 _____ 17 1933 (30) ______ 2.39 1985 ___ 3.19 1892 __ 1.0 1872 Nov 17 ___ 71 1953 ____ 60 1927 _______ 30 1924 _____ 19 1924, 33 _______ 1.54 2014 ___ 2.79 1985 __ Tr (1980^) Nov 18 ___ 73 1921,28 _ 57 1928 _______ 33 1914,24,59_18 1936 (49) ______ 1.24 1911 ___ 1.54 2014** _2.0 1873 Nov 19 ___ 72 1921 ____ 57 1906,2015 __ 31 1880 _____ 18 1936 (37) ______1.95 1932 ___ 1.97 1932 __ 0.3 1884 Nov 20 ___ 77 1985 ____ 62 1985 _______ 32 1873 _____ 21 1873 ___________3.37 1988 ___ 3.38 1988 __ 1.0 1955 Nov 21 ___ 74 1900 ____ 62 1991 _______ 24 1879 _____ 16 1879 ___________1.57 2024^___ 3.37 1988**_ 0.8 1937 Nov 22 ___ 72 1931 ____ 58 1931,92 ____ 23 1880 _____ 13 1880 ___________2.03 1878 ___ 2.52 2023^ __ 0.3 1989 Nov 23 ___ 72 1931 ____ 58 1931 _______ 25 1880 _____ 14 1880 __________ 1.84 1923 ___ 2.03 1878**_ 4.4 1989 (4.7 2d) Nov 24 ___ 73 1979 ____ 61 1979 _______ 30 1880,2013_ 14 1880 _________ 1.99 1873 ___ 2.20 1873 __ 3.9 1938 Nov 25 ___ 73 1979 ____ 62 1979 _______29 1938 ______ 19 1938 __________ 1.59 1950 ___ 1.99 1873**__ 4.9 1938 (8.8 2d) Nov 26 ___ 67 1946 ___ 55 1946,2020__26 1880 _____ 16 1880, 1938 ____ 1.91 1996 ___ 1.93 1996 __ 5.0 1898 (4.5 1882) Nov 27 ___ 72 1896 ____ 60 1896 ______28 1898,1932 __12 1932 __________2.15 1889 ___ 2.49 2013^_ 5.0 1898 (10.0 2d) Nov 28 ___ 70 2011 ____ 56 2011 _______ 24 1871 ______ 15 1930 (27) ______2.14 1937 ___ 3.09 1889 __ 0.8 1912 Nov 29 ___ 69 1990 ____ 58 2005 ______ 25 1871 ______ 14 1875 __________ 2.20 2016 ___ 2.20 2016*__ 3.8 1892 (+0.2 30th) Nov 30 ___ 70 1991 ____ 58 2006 ______ 14 1875 ______ 5 1875___________1.11 1928 ___ 2.93 2016 __ 9.0 1882 (4.9 1898) -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- NOTES (For 2d precip (rainfalls), ** indicates all of the precip fell the previous day and * indicates all of it fell on the one day with zero the previous day.) (Temps in brackets after record low minima are that day's maximum if it was not also a record low maximum) ^ 3rd _ 2d rainfall 1992 2.56" (0.38+2.18) ^ 5th _ 2d rainfall 1985 1.96" (0.30+1.66) edged out 1984 (0 +1.94) also 5th _ former record high min 63F (1938) * 6th _ 2022 (75F) broke previous high maximum of 74F set in 1948 and 2015. ... 80F in 2024 then broke 2022 record. ^ 7th _ low max tied 1886, 1903, 1927, 2012 ^ 8th _ 5.60" rain 1972 fell on the only day in Nov when it would not be a daily record. No additional rain on either 7th or 9th. ^ 8th _ 3.60" rain 2006 also fell on this date, .02" added on 7th, zero on 9th. ^ 10th _ 60F high min 2020 replaces 58F 1966, 1977. ^ 10th-11th _ 1.71" rain 1987 (1.26+0.45) edged out 1990 which had 1.70 + zero for the two days. 1962 had 1.61 + zero. ^ 11th-12th _ 2.39" rain 1947 (0.80+1.59). * 12th _ high min (60F) 2022 broke previous tied record 56F 1912, 1935 ^ 12th _ trace snowfalls 1934,68,77,87,95, 2013 ^ 13th _ trace snowfalls 1896,1921,34,39,42,68,77,84,2004, 2014, 2021. ^ 17th _ trace snowfalls 1873, 1882, 1935, 40, 67, 80 ^ 21st _ 2024 broke 1944 record of 1.33" ^ 22nd _ 2d rainfall record 2023 (2.52") (0.59+1.93) _ replaces 2.14" 1878 _ 1.93" not a daily record 22nd ^ 26th-27th 2.49" rain 2d 2013 (0.51+1.98) ____________________________________________________________________________

-1.4 _ -1.4 _ -1.7 __ -2.3 _ -2.5 _+0.9 ___ +1.5 _ +3.5 _ +0.8

You can add in that Toronto had 12" of snow in this same storm, it largest October fall on record by a wide margin. Second largest was 5" on October 22, 1969.

Reminder to NYC participants to visit contest thread with or without costumes by 31st.

This is what Josh recently posted on X ... ... "This was the strongest of the 83 hurricanes I have encountered" ... with two pictures, one looking out at the eyewall and one inside the hotel kitchen as he references below ... My location (Crawford, a tiny beach town in St. Elizabeth Parish #Jamaica) took the full force of the inner right eyewall and may have seen the peak winds in this historic, record-smashing hurricane. First pic: as it started to get scary. Bone-rattling gusts were making roofs explode into clouds of lethal confetti. The grand palm tree out front was starting to bend obscenely—in a way I found unnatural. Second pic: after we bolted the door shut because it was getting too dangerous even to watch the storm. (I'd randomly ended up in the hotel's kitchen with a local family.) The hurricane's inner eyewall was a screaming white void. All I could see through the cracks in the shutters was the color white—accompanied by a constant, ear-splitting scream that actually caused pain. (Notice the woman in the pic holding her ears.) The scream occasionally got higher and angrier, and those extra-screechy screams made my eardrums pulse. Meanwhile, water was forcing in through every crack—under the floor and between the window slats. I remember shuddering at the thought of what was happening to the town—what this screaming white void was doing to people, homes, communities. My fears were well-founded. The impact in this part of coastal St. Elizabeth Parish is catastrophic. Wooden structures were completely mowed down and in some cases swept from their foundations. Some concrete structures collapsed. The well-built ones—like my hotel—survived, but even they had major roof, window, and door damage. The landscape has been stripped bare—the trees just sticks. The roads are blocked with rubble and utility poles. Nearby Black River—a unique old historical town right on the water—was smashed beyond recognition: historical sites destroyed, main streets filled with rubble, the town market twisted like a pretzel, even the regional hospital destroyed. It's a good thing I wasn't in my hotel room during the storm because one of the windows blew out, showering the bed with glass and wood. The hotel lost most of its roof, and several third-story rooms were smashed open. But in the lower flooors, those grand old concrete walls protected us. And so far I'm aware of only two deaths in Crawford—a fellow who had a heart attack at the school next door (his body was still in his car and unclaimed the next morning, a sad and disturbing sight), and a woman who drowned in the storm surge in Gallon Beach. While walking down the devastated streets of Black River, I ran into the Jamaican Member of Parliament for this region, @floydgreenja . He's a great dude and I appreciate that he already has a gameplan for turning this catastrophe into an opportunity—to build this region back better. And I vowed on the spot that I'm going to make it my mission to spread awareness of this catastrophe and get that aid flowing in. I'll be talking about MELISSA a lot over the coming months—because it is both a fascinating meteorological event and a human disaster that demands an international response. (And I swear an epic video is coming out of this.) = (location according to a respondent on X was Sandy Ground Hotel west of Crawford towards White House)

Well as you probably know there are not often tropical storms in the South Atlantic Ocean, I believe there have only been two in modern times, and that is probably down to the water temperatures rarely exceeding 25 C there, as well as the size of the basin (but it's larger than the Arabian Sea which manages a few). The weather in the glacial maximum must have been quite extraordinary in general, maybe there were a few hurricanes but confined to the tropical latitudes.