Roger Smith

SLC had 2.47" of rain on Saturday, easily breaking the daily record of 0.74" (1882). Some flooding problems were reported in the Salt Lake City and Tooele regions. official report ... their 2.43" value is only to 8 p.m. ... seems to be the new October record as it is second all-time 24h rainfall and record 2.64" set May 3, 1901. RECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT823 PM MDT SAT OCT 04 2025...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT...AS OF 800 PM MDT A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.43 INCHES WAS SET AT SALT LAKE CITY UT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.74 INCHES SET IN 1882.THE DAILY TOTAL OF 2.43 IS THE SECOND HIGHEST DAILY PRECIPITATION ON RECORD FOR SALT LAKE CITY UT (2.64 SET ON MAY 3 1901). THE TWO DAY TOTAL OF 2.57 INCHES IS THE FIFTH HIGHEST 2 DAY TOTAL ON RECORD FOR SALT LAKE CITY UT (3.55 INCHES SET ON MAY 3-4TH 1901).

This is the entire list of times where three or more days in October had max 80 or higher at NYC ... ... ... daily records involved are in bold. The list is organized by value exceeded on all three days underlined if the spell lasted more than three days. ... ... (spells not ranked have 80+ for Sep 30 to Oct 2) 1. 88 94 90 ___ Oct 4-6 1941 (-- 85 88 90) ___ Sep 30 - Oct 2 1927 2. 84 86 87 81 __ Oct 11-14, 1954 3. 84 88 85 83 __ Oct 9-12, 1949 4. 84 85 84 ___ Oct 1-3 1968 5. 83 84 86 ___ Oct 3-5 1891 6. 84 83 83 82 87 __ Oct 4-8 2007 7. 82 88 86 ___ Oct 1-3 1922 8. 84 86 82 83 __ Oct 1-4 1954 (Sep 30 was 83) 9. 86 82 88 ___ Oct 4-6 1959 10. 84 82 81 84 80 __ Oct 6-10 1990 11. 82 84 82 ___ Oct 3-5 1983 12. 81 84 86 ___ Oct 3-5 1967 13. 81 81 85 ____ Oct 17-19 2016 14. 83 82 81 ____ Oct 5-7 2017 (followed by 77 77 81 77) 15. 82 84 80 80 _ Oct 4-7 2025 16. 80 80 81 ___ Oct 3-5 1898 17. 80 82 80 ___ Oct 3-5 1973 _______________ Other impressive warm spells ... ranks are determined by lowest max in any three days 18. 83 82 79 __ Oct 17-19 1928 came very close to making list. 19. 85 78 85 __ Oct 3-5 1879 might have gotten there in today's urban heat island. 20. 79 83 83 76 83 __ Oct 15-19 1963 Unranked but similar three day averages ... 82 87 71 __ Oct 15-17 1897 75 84 83 __ Oct 20-22 1920 75 82 90 __ Oct 15-17 1938 84 91 75 __ Oct 9-11 1939 84 86 76 86 __ Oct 5-8 1931 and 80 76 84 86 __ Oct 6-9 1916 are impressive four-day spells. 78 77 82 81 __ Oct 29-31 1946 80 83 74 85 __ Oct 20-23 1947 79 76 84 83 __ Oct 30 - Nov 2 1950 75 84 81 76 __ Oct 14-17 1956 84 83 76 74 80 __ Oct 9-13 1961 77 79 78 82 __ Oct 24-27 1963 80 81 78 ___ Oct 16-18 1968 74 78 73 ___ Nov 3-5 1975 also 71 76 75 Nov 7-9 1975 76 80 88 78 ___ Oct 20-23 1979 77 76 77 76 ___ Oct 26-29 1989 (included for lateness of season) 77 81 86 ___ Oct 11-13 1995 77 84 81 ___ Oct 8-10 2011 82 83 78 86 __ Oct 1-4 2013 78 76 74 74 ___ Oct 21-24 2017 74 75 75 74 ___ Nov 7-10 2020 76 75 77 ___ Nov 5-7 2022 77 74 80 ___ Oct 26-28 2023 76 81 79 ___ Oct 29-31 2024 A lot of daily records in October are part of two-day 80+ spells and lack the third day to enter the list. It seems that there is often a tendency for a reload of near 80 readings about five days after any given 2-4 day spell.

Next three days coincide with warmest three-day interval for NYC highs in October (1941) 88 _ 94 _ 90, all daily records. Here are the rest of the NYC records ... <<<< OCTOBER >>>> For 2d rainfalls, which always end on date cited, ** indicates all rain fell only on that date, and ^ indicates all precip fell on the previous day while none fell on date listed. ... * indicates notes at bottom of table. In the snowfall column before it begins listing on 10th, some other rainfall events are noted. In Low min, a value in brackets indicates a max for that date not a record low max as well. Some low mins have an associated record low max (e.g., 5th 1881, after all that warm weather in Sep 1881). DATE ____ Hi max __ Hi min _____ Low max ____ Low min __________ Max prec (r) _ Max 2d rain _ Max snow (10th to 31st) Oct 01 ___ 88 1927 __ 72 1881, 1954 _ 51 1899 ___ 36 1947 (60) ______4.98 1913 ___ 4.98 1913*__ 2d rain 3.56 2010 (1.10+2.46) Oct 02 ___ 93 2019 __ 72 1954 ______ 49 1899 ___ 39 1886 (54) ______2.16 1929 ___ 5.28 1913 __ Oct 03 ___ 87 1919 __ 68 1954, 69 ___ 47 1888 ___ 38 1888,99,1974 __1.84 1869 ___ 2.16 1929**_ Oct 04 ___ 88 1941 __ 75 1898 _______ 51 1883 ___ 37 1888 (55) ______4.05 1877 ___ 4.05 1877*__ 2d rain 3.90 1869 (1.84+2.06) Oct 05 ___ 94 1941^__ 75 1898^______50 1881 ___ 35 1881 ___________1.99 1995 ___ 4.07 1877 __ Oct 06 ___ 90 1941 __ 71 1910 _______ 50 1935 ___ 36 1881 (60) ______2.70 1871 ___ 2.70 1871*__ 2.39" R 1955 (1d) Oct 07 ___ 88 1944 __ 70 2005 ______ 48 1873 __ 39 1954, 99 _______4.09 1972 ___ 4.38 1972 __ Oct 08 ___ 87 2007 __ 72 2017 ______ 45 1988 ___ 37 1988 __________ 4.30 1903 ___ 4.49 2005 (0.23+4.26) ^ Oct 09 ___ 86 1916 __ 71 2017 _______ 43 1888 ___ 37 1888, 1988 ____ 7.33 1903 ___11.63 1903 __ Oct 10 ___ 91 1939 __ 71 2018 _______ 43 1925 ___ 35 1888 ___________2.44 1871 ___ 7.50 1903 __ Tr sn 1925,79 Oct 11 ___ 85 1949 __ 69 2018 _______ 48 1951 ___ 34 1964 (55) ______3.06 2002 ___ 3.25 2002 __ Oct 12 ___ 86 1928,54 _ 67 1954 ____ 49 1875,87,91_35 1876 (52) ______4.26 2005 __ 4.39 2005, 4.34 2002 _ 3.40 1983 1dR Oct 13 ___ 87 1954 __ 69 1990 _______ 47 1874 ___ 34 1875 (51) ______2.75 2005 ___ 7.01 2005 __ Tr sn 1937 Oct 14 ___ 84 1920 __ 68 1990 _______ 45 1889 ___ 37 1988 (53 13th)_ 1.76 1995 ___ 4.29 2005 __ Oct 15 ___ 84 1956 __ 69 2014 _______ 46 1876 ___ 32 1876 __________ 1.70 1943 ___ 1.95 1995 __ 0.5 sn 1876 Oct 16 ___ 87 1897 __ 67 1897 _______ 46 2009 ___ 34 1876 (49) ______2.15 1974 ___ 2.35 1974 __ (all entries snow from here on) Oct 17 ___ 90 1938 __ 67 1928 _______ 47 1970 ___ 33 1886 (47 16th) _2.28 1936 ___ 2.30 1936 __ Trace 1929 Oct 18 ___ 82 1928 __ 69 1928 _______ 45 2009 ___ 35 1929,39,74 _____2.45 1911 ___ 3.24 1932^__Trace 1926,72 Oct 19 ___ 85 2016 __ 68 1905 _______ 43 1972 ___ 30 1940 (45) ______4.35 1996^___ 4.35 1996*__ Trace 1940,72 Oct 20 ___ 80 1947,69 _ 65 1916, 84 ___44 1974 __ 31 1974 ___________2.78 1989 ___ 4.50 1996^__ 0.5 1952 Oct 21 ___ 84 1920 __ 64 1947, 79 ___ 43 1888 ___ 31 1871 (52 20th) _2.17 1995 ___ 2.78 1989^_ Oct 22 ___ 88 1979 __ 67 1979 _______ 43 1887 ___ 30 1940 (51) ______1.51 2014 ___ 2.17 1995^ _ Oct 23 ___ 85 1947 __ 67 1979 _______ 42 1889 ___ 32 1969 (43) ______2.97 1912 ___ 2.99 1912 __ Oct 24 ___ 79 2001 __ 67 2017 _______ 44 1889 ___ 31 1969 (51) ______2.51 1917 ___ 3.92 1923* __Tr 1960 Oct 25 ___ 79 1963 __ 69 1908 _______ 40 1879 ___ 29 1879 __________ 3.30 1913 ___ 3.94 1913 __ Oct 26 ___ 78 1963,64 _66 1908 ______ 39 1962 __ 30 1869, 79 ______ 3.40 1943 ___ 3.54 1943 __ Tr 1903,28,62 Oct 27 ___ 82 1963 __ 66 1908 _______ 39 1869 ___ 28 1936 (43) ______1.88 2003 ___ 3.55 1943 __ Tr 1903,44 Oct 28 ___ 83 1919 __ 64 1971 ________ 41 1876 ___ 29 1976 (42 27th)_ 2.49 1953 ___ 2.54 2006 __ Tr 1925,34,65 Oct 29 ___ 78 1971 __ 63 1946 ______43 1909,25,52_ 31 1925 (43) ______3.67 1973 ___ 3.67 1973**__ 2.9 2011 Oct 30 ___ 82 1946,61 _ 64 1918, 46 ___ 38 1925 __ 31 1925 __________1.64 1917 ___ 3.89 1973 __ 0.8 1925 Oct 31 ___ 81 1946, 2024 __62 1881, 1961 _ 41 1869 _29 1887, 1925____2.41 1956___ 2.41 1956**__ (no snow) -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- ^ 5th _ Min with the extreme Oct max of 94 in 1941 was 71. Max with the extreme high mins in 1898 were 80, 81. ^ 7th to 14th _ 2005 had 13.25" rain in eight days with two amounts of 4.26" (8th,12th) and another 4.29" 13th-14th. ^ 18th _ 2d max rain 1932 3.24" (1.15+2.09) also 2.89" 1927 (0.98+1.91). Both greater than 1911 which had zero added. ^ 19th _ 3.12" R in 1966 (1d) .. 3.72 2d 1911 (2.45+1.27). ^ 20th _ 4.19" 2d rain 1989 (1.41+2.78) ^ 23-24 _ 3.92" 2d rain 1923 (2.45+1.47) ^ 31st _ 2024 min 61F not a record

I think the tied high score for September (Scotty and myself) is the first one since May 2023. There was a later case (Oct 2023) where high score was a little ahead of a second score with a late penalty, and a little behind the raw score before late penalty. The final phase of this contest is going to be very interesting. Tom has a fairly comfortable lead but there are three or four others within striking distance. I think RodneyS, wxdude64, myself and StormchaserChuck have fallen a bit too far back to have any realistic chance, the rest of the regulars have a chance.

__ Table of forecasts for October 2025 __ FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS _ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA Ephesians2 ____________+4.3 _+3.8 _+3.5 _+5.4 _+4.0 _+3.6 _+1.0 _+1.3 _ -0.5 Roger Smith ___________ +3.5 _+4.0 _+4.3 _+5.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 _+1.2 StormchaserChuck1 ___ +3.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+5.7 _+2.9 _+2.5 _+0.5 _+0.2 __0.0 RJay ___________________ +3.0 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+5.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __0.0 __0.0 DonSutherland1 ________ +2.5 _+2.6 _+2.5 _+5.4 _+1.7 _+1.7 _+3.2 _+2.6 _+0.2 wxallannj _______________+2.3 _+2.4 _+2.5 _ +2.0 _+1.8 _+2.3 _+1.0 _+0.7 _+0.4 hudsonvalley21 _________+2.1 _+2.1 _ +2.1 __ +3.2 _+1.2 _+1.8 _ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.2 ___ Consensus _________+2.1 _+2.2 _+2.3__+3.4_+1.7 _+1.9 _+1.3 _+1.1 _+0.5 so_whats_happening __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.4 _ +3.5 _+1.6 _+2.1 _ +1.4 _ +1.0 _ +1.6 yoda ___________________ +1.8 _+1.4 _+1.3 __+2.5 _ +1.7 _+1.8 _ +1.3 _ +1.9 _+0.3 BKViking _______________ +1.6 _+1.7 _+1.7 __+1.7 _+1.5 _+1.2 __+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 Tom ____________________ +1.5 _+1.6 _+1.6 __+2.8 _+1.5 _+1.1 __+1.2 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 Scotty Lightning ________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.0 _ +1.5 _+1.0 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 wxdude64 ______________+0.6 _+0.7 _+0.3 _-0.2 _+0.8 _+0.5__-0.4 _-0.2 _+0.7 RodneyS _______________ +0.1 _ +1.7 _+1.6 __+3.8 _+0.6 _+3.0 _+1.6 _+0.6 _+0.9 ___ Normal ______________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _______________ ___ Persistence __(Sep) _-0.2 _+1.4 _+0.9 _+3.0 _+2.5 _+1.2 _-0.1 _+1.0 _+1.5 _______________ ============== warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded; Normal is colder than all forecasts for DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL and IAH. Consensus is median value of 14 forecasts (not counting Persistence which is Sep 2025 anomalies, or Normal).

Maybe if they would truck some of it in, it would help?

Thanks everyone, I will get a table of forecasts up as soon as possible ... ... meanwhile, this is the final report on the SEASONAL MAX contest. Winner is RJay, congrats. Final scoring for Seasonal Max contest 2025 TABLE of ERRORS _ _ _ _ errors in italics are forecasts lower than eventual result which is above the table (actual) _________________ 99 __ 99 _102 ___ 95 _100 _101 ___100 _118 _ 94 FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS _ ORD_ATL_IAH _ DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTAL RJay _____________________01 _ 02 _ 03 ____ 03 _ 00 _ 04 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 17 DonSutherland1 _________ 01 _ 01 _ 05 ____ 03 _ 02 _ 03 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 ______ 19 wxallannj ________________ 01 _ 03 _ 07 ____ 00 _ 02 _ 00 ___ 04 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 19 wxdude64 _______________01 _ 00 _ 04 ____ 04 _ 01 _ 05 ___ 04 _ 00 _ 02 _____ 21 ___ Consensus __________02 _ 01 _ 04 ____05 _ 01 _ 04 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 21 hudsonvalley21 __________02 _ 01 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _ 00 ___ 00 _ 05 _ 03 _____ 22 Tom _____________________02 _ 00 _ 04 ____ 07 _ 03 _ 04 ___ 01 _ 00 _ 02 _____ 23 so_whats_happening ____02 _ 02 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _ 04 ___ 04 _ 00 _ 01 _____ 24 Scotty Lightning ________ 04 _ 01 _ 04 ____ 06 _ 03 _ 05 ___ 00 _ 03 _ 02 _____ 28 Roger Smith _____________03 _ 01 _ 02 ____ 06 _ 02 _ 06 ____07 _ 02 _ 05 _____ 34 _____________________________________ (actual forecasts) FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning ________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 ____ 101 _ 103 _ 106 ___ 100 _ 121 __ 92 Roger Smith _____________ 102 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 107 ____107 _ 120 __ 99 Tom _____________________ 101 __ 99 __ 98 ___ 102 _ 103 _ 105 ___ 101 _ 118 __ 96 hudsonvalley21 _________ 101 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 123 __ 97 so_whats_happening ____ 101 __ 97 __ 97 ____ 100 __ 99 _ 105 ___104 _ 118 __ 93 ___ Consensus __________101 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95 wxdude64 ______________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 _____99 _ 101 _ 106 ___ 104 _ 118 __ 96 DonSutherland1 _________ 100 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 98 __ 98 _ 104 ___ 102 _ 117 __ 95 RJay _____________________100 __ 97 __ 99 _____ 98 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95 wxallannj _________________98 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 95 __ 98 _ 101 ___ 104 _ 119 __ 93

LB, I think that TS4 was about a 60 mph storm when it made landfall. The rainfall you asked about (8.28") is the daily record for September (second place being 7.13" Sep 1, 2021) and is also the all-time daily record for any month, but the all-time monthly record at Central Park (despite what it said in the source) is August 2011 with 18.95" -- Oct 2005 had 16.73" April 1983 14.01" and Oct 1903 had 13.31" ... these are the largest daily totals ... 1. Sep 23, 1882 ____ 8.28" 2. Apr 15, 2007 ____ 7.57" 3. Nov 8, 1977 _____ 7.40" 4, Oct 9, 1903 _____ 7.33" 5. Sep 1, 2021 _____ 7.13 6. Aug 14, 2011 ___ 5.81" 7. Nov 8, 1972 _____ 5.60" 8. Sep 21, 1966 ___ 5.54" 9. Sep 29, 2023 __ 5.48" 10. Sep 16, 1999 __ 5.02" 10. Oct 1, 1913 ____ 4.98" 11. Apr 30, 2014 ___4.97" 12. Sep 8, 1934 ___ 4.86" 13t Aug 20, 1873 __ 4.80" 13t Aug 16, 1909 ___4.80" 15. Aug 10, 1990 ___4.64" 16. Aug 21, 2021 ___4.45" 17. Oct 19, 1996 ____4.35" 18. Apr 10, 1983 ___ 4.31" 19t Sep 19, 1894 ___ 4.30" 19t Oct 8, 1903 ____ 4.30" 21. June 26, 1884 __4.29" 22t Oct 8, 2005 ____ 4.26" 22t Oct 12, 2005 ___ 4.26" 24. Mar 25, 1876 ___4.25" 25. Aug 21, 1888 ___4.19" 26t June 7, 2013 ___4.16" 26t Aug 27, 1971 ___ 4.16" 26t Sep 15, 1933 ___ 4.16" 29. Aug 9, 1942 ___ 4.10" 30. Oct 7, 1972 _____ 4.09" 31. Sep 21, 1938 ___ 4.05" This includes all 4"daily amounts, May's record daily in 32nd place was 3.99" on 29th, 1968. Sep 13-14 1944 (3.94 + 3.82) both came close to making the list also.

Nobody's all that late yet, will give a shout to RJay and BK, welcome to Ephesians2 also. September scoring is updated and is in last post on page six (as I see it anyway). -- before the October forecasts, also the annual scoring is being updated, I've fallen a bit behind due to a poorly planned day of car work and no internet ... so getting back to it now, as you look in there you'll see some scores updated, some yet to come, all totals are already updated and order changed a little but not a lot.

Just like me, they long to be, close to you. It's a nightmare for European forecasters who are waiting to see what ejects from dying Humberto, model consensus is not that good but something intense could come out and head for Ireland and Scotland Friday-Saturday. Or it could all fizzle out.

In Sept 1882 as indicated the massive rainfalls 22nd-23rd were in advance of landfalling TS4, and the 2.57" on the 11th plus 0.66" on 12th was due to passage of Hurricane Two (by then only a TS) across the Delmarva Peninsula after a landfall near Mobile (Navarre FL) on the night of 10th-11th. Between those, TS3 of 1882 was a weaker event that moved into TX around the 16th.

My standard reminder to NYC participants in forecast contest, tick tock ... deadline is tonight (more or less).

The 88 _ 90 _ 94 of Oct 4 to 6 1941 was the latest not quite a heatwave by official definitions, and mid-October 1954 had three in a row over 84 F. The wet September is a typo, it was actually 1882. And what caused it was mainly a slow-moving tropical storm (TS 4 of 1892) moving up the east coast 22nd to 24th. About three quarters of the month's massive total occurred in that time frame. The TS crossed Long Island with a landfall at Mastic Beach.

3.5 _ 4.0 _ 4.3 _ 5.2 _ 3.5 _ 3.5 _ 2.0 _ 2.0 _ 1.2

The pattern going forward looks very similar to October 1963 which was remarkably warm, dry and sunny for almost the entire month. Another similar feature was a long-lived meandering hurricane off the southeast coast. I recall the month from a location near Toronto where we had absolutely no rain from the 1st to 30th and only avoided a total drought when it rained on the 31st. November 1963 was then very mild and unsettled, December was quite cold and snowy.

Bet you would take 1947-48 as well.

Not quite 2017 but this will be a top five September for increase in mean temperature from 1st half to 2nd half ... I know we had some posts about this back before the increase began, and seems to me only two or three increased more than this one will. The odd thing is, 2017 was among the warmest Octobers, but so was 1947 which followed the exact opposite sequence of largest decrease from Sep 1-15 to Sep 16-30. 1891 was another September with a large increase from first half to second half. I don't think 2025 can catch it for second place but it may finish third (for increase, not for average).

Once again revised scoring table to account for (a) Humberto now a major hurricane, and (b) Imelda very likely to form and reach at least tropical storm status. As no forecasters have fewer than 4 hurricanes forecast, for Imelda to reach hurricane status will improve scores by 1 if you predicted 4 hurricanes, by 2 if you predicted five, by 3 if you predicted six, etc. (errors reduced from -1 to 0; -3 to -1; -6 to -3; -10 to -6, etc). I have added a potential score for that possible outcome, in brackets, after the indicated score. UPDATE edit Sep 30 06z ... Imelda about to become a hurricane apparently so I have edited the scoring table to reflect that likely outcome and to edit the H components of error and score deduction. Onwards and ever upwards.

=== ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for Jan-Sep 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: === FORECASTER _____DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __TOTALS ___ Consensus ______589 _626 _650_ 1865__544 _622 _644_1810 _3675__623_664_742_2029 __5704 Tom __________________ 605 _630 _676 __1911 __550 _552 _658__1760 _3671 __686 _658 _684__2028___5699 hudsonvalley21 ______ 555 _622 _674 __1851 __494 _582 _647 __1723 __3574 __640 _634 _738__2012__5586 so_whats_happening __623 _662 _628 __1913 __550 _626 _575__1751__3664 __606 _582 _726__1914___5578 Scotty Lightning ______598 _ 656 _618 __ 1872__487 _526 _664__1677 _3549 __597 _702 _698__1997___5546 RJay _________________ 540 _641 _659 __ 1840 __588 _648 _638__1874 _3714 __529 _551 _631 __ 1711___5425 DonSutherland1 ______ 529 _578 _624 __1731 __560 _596 _582__ 1738 _3469 __645 _616 _690__1951___5420 wxallannj _____________ 515 _554 _592 __1661 __514 _554 _618__ 1686 _ 3347 __634 _654 _679 __1967___5314 RodneyS _____________ 552 _560 _628 __1740 __394 _472 _576__1442 _3182 __561 _592 _822 __1975___ 5157 wxdude64 ____________496 _542 _560 __1598 __430_ 542 _580__1552 _3150__ 653 _646 _684__1983__ 5133 Roger Smith __________498 _584 _594 __1676 __562 _570 _588__1720 _3396 __448 _604 _673__ 1725___5121 StormchaserChuck ___559 _582 _600 __1741 __414 _614 _ 521__1549 _ 3290 __ 605 _612 _597 __ 1814___5104 ___ Normal ____________528 _576 _586 __1690 __458 _386 _405__1249__2939__648 _546 _666__1860__4799 BKViking (7/9) _______ 366 _403 _439 __1208 __378 _486 _424__1288 _2496 __476 _480 _497__1453__3949 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __5078 Yoda _(2/9) ____________094 _110 _110 __ 314 __ 124 _ 110 _ 188 __ 422 ___ 736 __168 _148 _168 ___ 484 ___1220 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total __5490 maxim (2/9) __________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __298__ 794 __92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __5000 Persistence ___________320 _430 _560 __1310 ___286 _344 _566 _1196 _2506__470 _462 _636 __1568 ___4074 ____________________________ ________________________________ __ Best scores __ (updated for Sep) ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 - 5 tied for best score ____________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__TOTALS ___ Consensus ______2*__0 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __0 __ 1 __0 __0 ___1 ___1 ___1 ___0 ___0 Tom ___________________2 *__ 1^ _ 2 ___1 ___ 2 ___2^ __2^___1 ___1 ___ 0 __ 2 ___2^___2 ___2 __ Mar,Jun hudsonvalley21 ________ 1 *__ 2^__2 ___1 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 2^ ___0 __ 0 ___2^^__ 1 __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 so_whats_happening __ 1 *__ 1 __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 2^__ 1^ __ 1 ___2 ___ 0 Scotty Lightning _______ 3^*__1^__ 1^___0 ___ 0 __1^__ 3 ___ 0 __0 ___ 0 __ 3*___1 ___1 ____1 _Sep(t) RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___ 2^__1^__ 2^^__3 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 1^___0 ___ 0 Don Sutherland 1 _______1 *__ 1^__ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 __1 ___0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 wxallannj _______________1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1^ __ 1^__0 ___0 ____0 RodneyS _______________ 1 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ 2^ __1^ __ 2 ___ 2 ___1 __ 1 ___ 4^___1 ____2 _ May,Aug wxdude64 ______________1 __ 2^__ 1*___2 ___ 0 __0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 2 ___0 __0___ 0 ____1 _ Jan Roger Smith ____________1^ __3^^__2^ __2 ___3 ___3^^__2^^__ 1 ___2 ___0 __ 1^__ 0 ___1 ____3 _ Feb,Jul,Sep(t) StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 1^__ 1 ____2 ___ 1^__ 1 ___1 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___0 __ 1^___ 1 ____0 _Apr BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____1 ___ 1*__0 ___0 ___0 ___ Normal ______________ 1 __ 2 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____0 maxim __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1* ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___1 ___ 1 __ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ============================== (tie for Consensus or Normal is not a tie for forecaster(s)) Extreme forecasts _ updated for Sep So far, 46 of 81 ... 23 for warmest and 23 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6, Jun 1-1, Jul 1-1, Aug 1-6 and Sep 5-1. Forecaster ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_Jul _Aug __ Total___adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Rodney S ______________ 2-1 _1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 _0-1_0-0 _4-0 _1-0 __11-2 ___10.0 - 2.0 Roger Smith ___________ 0-0 _3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _1*-0_1*-0_4^-0__12-2___8.0 - 2.0 ___ Normal _____________ 1-0 _0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 _0-1 _1-0 __2-0 _1-0 __ 7-2 ___ 7.0 - 2.0 Scotty Lightning _______ 1-0 _0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0_0-0_ 0-1 _3^-0 __8-1 ____ 6.5 - 1.0 hudsonvalley21 _________1*-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0_ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __4-1 ___3.5 - 0.0 Stormchaser Chuck ____ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __4-3 ___ 3.5 - 3.0 maxim __________________1^-0_0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.33-0.0 Tom ____________________0-0 _0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 _ 0-0_0-0 _0-0_1*-0 __ 4-0 ___ 3.0 - 0.0 wxdude64 ______________1^-0_ 0-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0_0-0 __1-0 _0-1 __ 3-1 ____2.33-1.0 RJay ____________________0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 _ 0-0_1 *-0_0-0_1*-0 _ 4-0 ___ 2.0-0.0 so_whats_happening ___ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __0-0_1-0 __0-0 _0-0__3-0 ___ 2.0 - 0.0 Don Sutherland _________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __2-0 ____1.33-0.0 BKViking _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 wxallannj _______________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _1*-0_0-0__1-0 ___ 0.5 - 0.0 ^ (note: For Sep wins, Roger Smith and Scotty Lightning tied three, not shown by * symbols but calculated into adjusted scores) =========================================================

Humberto brings the count to 8/2/2 and the forecast gives me enough confidence to score from 8/3/2. Apparently there is some potential to go to 8/3/3 eventually and if so the scoring will be adjusted. It will improve all scores except two already at zero error for two majors; those two scores would drop by 1.0. Scores with errors of 1 for major hurricanes will improve by 1; scores with errors of 2 will improve by 2 (from 3 to 1 error deductions); scores with errors of 3 will improve by 3, etc.

Well unexpectedly Gabrielle did intensify all the way to major (cat 4) so I have modified the table of storms required. Will probably be modifying it again soon to get the 8th named storm into the table.

The snow depth mystery is basically explained by fact that snow depth is measured early in the day before most of the snow falls, so it increases the day after the snowfall report in most cases.

Your current implied forecasts for rest of season are shown in previous post -- where it is assumed Gabrielle will become a non-major hurricane at some future point. We are past the halfway point of climatology for seasonal totals, although a few seasons can be found where this was before the halfway point (not many). Some of us are going to need a finish like 1887 to get anywhere near our forecasts. I would have to say the two forecasts scored in the table (Hotair, retrobuc) are looking like the favorites at this point.

Final scoring for September 2025 Based on posted anomalies in previous post. FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east _ORD_ATL_IAH _cent _c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA_west_TOTAL Scotty Lightning ________66 _ 92_ 98 _256 _60 _80_ 94 _234_ 490 _ 78 _ 90 _80 _248 __738 Roger Smith ____________ 76 _ 92_98_ 266 _70_80_ 94 _244 _ 510 _ 58 _80_ 90 _228 __738 hudsonvalley21 _________90 _ 68 _ 76 _234 _28 _60 _ 80 _168 _402 _88_100_100 _288__690 yoda ____________________90 _ 66 _ 70 _226 _48 _68 _ 96 _212_ 438 _ 72 _92 _76 _ 240__ 678 ___ Consensus _________100_ 66 _ 76 _242 _28 _50 _ 94 _172 _414 _ 78 _92 _92 _262__676 RJay ____________________94 _ 74 _ 84 _252 _50 _50 _ 98 _198_ 450 _ 58 _80 _86 _224__ 674 ___ Normal _____________ 96 _ 72 _82 _250 _ 40 _50 _ 76 _ 166_ 416 _98 _80_70 _248__ 664 so_whats_happening ____98 _ 72 _ 86 _256 _46 _40 _66 _152 _ 408 _ 74 _92 _96 _262__ 670 wxallannj _______________100 _ 64 _ 76 _240 _24 _54 _ 86_ 164_ 404_ 88 _ 90 _80 _258__662 DonSutherland1 _________92 _ 70 _ 82 _244 _48 _56 _ 92 _196_ 440 _ 62 _86 _66 _214__ 654 Tom _____________________86 _ 48 _ 60 _194 _ 10 _34 _ 98_ 142 _336 _68 _92 _94 _254 __590 RodneyS ________________ 58 _ 54 _ 66 _178 _00 _04 _ 94 _098 _276 _92 _90 _94 _276 __552 wxdude64 ______________ 54 _ 40 _ 60 _154 _00 _34 _ 86 _120 _ 274 _ 90 _94 _92 _276 __550 StormchaserChuck1 _____52 _ 32 _ 50 _134 _00 _34 _ 74 _108 _242 _ 88 _88 _70 _248 __490 BKViking ________________ 66 _ 30 _ 46 _142 _00 _40 _ 68 _108 _250 _78 _84 _78 _240 __490 ============ ___ Persistence __________32 _ 26 _ 40 _098 _30 _10 _ 90 _130 _228 _ 80 _44 _98 _222 __450 ________________________ EXTREME FORECASTS NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL wins for Roger Smith and (except ORD) Scotty Lightning, with high forecasts. IAH (+1.2) is a win for RJay and Tom (+1.1) and a loss for tied highest forecasts Roger Smith and Scotty Lightning (+1.5). DEN (-0.1) is a win for RodneyS (+0.3) and Normal, and loss for wxdude64 (-0.6) and would have been a win for wxdude64 at any outcome below -0.1. ==================== (actual forecasts) FORECASTER _______________ DCA _NYC _BOS _ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning _____________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 _ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 Roger Smith _________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 _ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 __+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 hudsonvalley21 ______________ +0.3 _-0.2 _-0.3 _-0.6 _+0.5 _+0.2 __+0.5 _+1.0 _+1.5 yoda _________________________ +0.3 _-0.3 _-0.6 _+0.4_+0.9 _+1.0 __+1.3 _+1.4 _+2.7 DonSutherland1 ______________+0.2 _ -0.1 _ 0.0 _ +0.4 _+0.3 _+0.8__+1.8 _+1.7 _+3.2 RJay _________________________+0.1 _ +0.1 _ +0.1 _ +0.5 _ 0.0 _ +1.1 __+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ Normal ____________________0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 wxallannj ____________________ -0.2 _-0.4 _-0.3 _-0.8 _+0.2 _+0.5 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+2.5 ___ Consensus ______________-0.2_-0.3 _-0.3 _-0.6 _ 0.0 _ +0.9 __+1.0_+1.4_+1.9 so_whats_happening ________-0.3 __0.0 _ +0.2 _+0.3 _-0.5 _ -0.5 __+1.2 _+1.4 _+1.3 Tom _________________________ -0.9 _-1.2 _ -1.1 __ -1.5 _ -0.8 _ +1.1 __ +1.5 _+0.6 _+1.8 BKViking _____________________-1.9 _ -2.1 _ -1.8 _ -2.3 _-0.5 _-0.4 __+1.0 _+1.8 _ +0.4 RodneyS _____________________-2.3 _ -0.9 _-0.8 _ -2.2 _-2.3 _+0.9 __+0.3 _+0.5 _+1.8 wxdude64 ___________________-2.5 _ -1.6 _ -0.9 _ -2.6 _-0.8 _ +0.5 __-0.6 _+0.7 _+1.9 StormchaserChuck1 _________ -2.6 _ -2.0 _-1.6 _ -3.5 _-0.8 _ -0.1 __ +0.5 _+0.4 _+3.0 ============ ___ Persistence _______________ -3.6 _-2.3 _-2.1 __-0.5 _-2.0 _+1.7 __+0.9 _+3.8 _+1.4 ________________________

Anomalies and projections ... __________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA (15th) ___ (anom 1-15) ___-3.1 __-2.0 _ -2.0 __ -3.2 _-0.7 _-0.3 __ -0.3 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 (25th) ___ (anom 1-24)___-1.7 __-0.4 _ -1.3 __ +1.0 _+1.7 _+1.1 __ -1.2 _ +1.5 _ +1.7 (15th) __ (p anom 1-30) _ -1.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.5 __ -1.5 __ 0.0 _+0.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 (25th) __ (p anom 1-30) _ -1.0 __ 0.0 _ -0.5 __ +1.5 _ +2.0 _+1.5 __ 0.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ final anomalies ______ -0.2 _ +1.4 _ +0.9 __+3.0 _+2.5 _+1.2 __-0.1 _ +1.0 _+1.5 (seasonal max contest is finished now, report on it back in thread will be confirmed and re-posted at end of Sep) (final scoring report follows, annual summary in next post)