Roger Smith

I ask myself that same question. (in metric)

This is all the winters that got cancelled since 2022.

GFS is one degree east of a perfect track for all of New England and the track it has now is pretty good for eastern New England, I would say. What's one degree in 144 hours? (one half of a mile per hour that's what). Course, it could shift 2 deg east then it's NS in the jackpot zone. As DIT says, snow breeds snow. You'll do fine.

YYZ has blown past the snowiest January there (1999). This was also tops for downtown in a longer period of record as shown in this table of top ten monthly snowfalls. TOP TEN COUNTDOWNS for each month (in cm) TORONTO CITY 1843 to 2025 Rank __ JAN _______ FEB ____ MAR _____ APR ______ MAY ____ OCT _____ NOV ______ DEC _ 10 ___ 1994_75.4__ 1950_70.9__ 1923_52.1 __ 1943_20.3 __ 1851_ 1.3 __ 1868_ 5.1 __ 1997_29.0 __ 1970_67.8 _ 09 ___ 1914_76.7__ 1893_73.2__ 1936_52.8 __ 1885_21.8 __ 1861_ 1.3 __ 1869_ 5.8 __ 1879_29.5 __ 1864_68.8 _ 08 ___ 1884_79.8__ 2008_74.4__ 1852_53.6 __ 1932_22.1 __ 1885_ 1.3 __ 1843_ 6.4 __ 1874_29.7 __ 1951_71.1 _ 07 ___ 1875_82.0__ 1896_75.2__ 1883_58.7 __ 1901_22.4 __ 1966_ 1.3 __ 1880_ 6.9 __ 1995_31.2 __ 1850_74.9 _ 06 ___ 1852_85.9__ 1861_75.4__ 1873_64.0 __ 1852_23.9 __ 1963_ 1.8 __ 1906_ 7.1 __ 1951_34.0 __ 1855_74.9 _ 05 ___ 1895_90.9__ 1900_77.9__ 1843_65.3 __ 1975_24.4 __ 1909_ 2.0 __ 1875_ 9.7 __ 1933_37.3 __ 2000_76.2 _ 04 ___ 1873_99.6__ 1924_82.3__ 1875_76.2 __ 1966_24.6 __ 1855_ 2.3 __ 1925_10.7__ 1898_39.6 __ 1944_92.5 _ 03 ___1867_106.7__1868_83.8__ 1867_84.8 __ 1874_27.9 ___ 1923_ 3.8 __ 1865_11.4__ 1940_42.2 __ 1876_92.7 _ 02 ___1871_110.7__ 1869_100.8__ 1876_112.0 __ 1857_32.8 ___ 1907_ 4.1 __ 1969_12.2__ 1873_49.8 ___ 1859_95.0 _ 01 ___1999_118.4__ 1846_117.1__ 1870_158.5 __ 1979_37.6 ___ 1875_ 7.9 __ 1844_30.5__ 1950_57.2 ___ 1872_96.5 ... ... ... ... ... ... Feb 2025 was 13th at 66.9 cm ... Note: 40" is 101.6 cm ... 30" is 76.2 cm ... 20" is 50.8 cm ... 10" is 25.4 cm Top five months are March 1870, Jan 1999 (now probably Jan 2026), Feb 1846, Mar 1876, Jan 1871.

If we're going pro, I am going to be Don's caddy.

Okay, I can post the numbers from climate summaries (the last one we need shows up soon after midnight). It will be the total snowfall for 25th-26th as shown in climate summaries and where possible on CF6 forms too. Your scoring system is basically total of absolute errors, should probably be to decimal places as results and some forecasts have a decimal involved. But whatever it will work out the same probably. As to the forecasts for "your location" some of those would involve taking a forum report, a few can be verified the same way as above. But likely you wouldn't include them in scoring, right?

How much for PHL? They will be in a subsidence zone, seven feet and 80 mph, do they have any tall buidlings? All I know is the Liberty Bell and the Flyers play there. Otherwise total ignorance, I drove through once but was too frightened to look.

So far, what I know for sure ... YYZ reported 46.2 cm snow and 17.8 mm liquid equivalent (ratios of 26:1 which is consistent with low temps and lake effect). Downtown Toronto reported 20.8 mm liquid. At the same ratio their snowfall would be around 54 cm. The tweet shown in the thread earlier says 62 cm snow with 47 in six hours. I assume it refers to the downtown observation site, if not, it was observed very close to there (it is a five minute walk from Queens Park to Trinity College, unless you're with a pretty co-ed of course) ... but enough about that ... I will see the snow depth changes tomorrow. Both YYZ and downtown had 15-17 cm on the ground before this storm began. The delta snow depth will be an indication of snowfall but can estimate the settle factor from the YYZ reports. Looks like no additional snow today. 46.2 17.8

SNOW SANDY TO DROP SEVENTEEN FEET OF SNOW, 120 MPH WINDS, DRIFTS COVER EMPIRE STATE BUILDING is that about right?

In my own defense I could point out that I need to have a road atlas handy any time there's a big storm and reports pouring in, I have no earthly idea where most places without a professional sports franchise might be located. (just saw on NE thread that BOS passed 20.2" recently and it's still hammering down there)

Two recognized methods for snowfall contests are sum of errors or sum of errors squared (which tends to be closer to correlation co-efficient). It's often a similar but not exactly same order of finish using those two methods. As Don and perhaps a few others here will know, DonSutherland has a very good record in even larger snowfall contests that ran for many winters on another site, and disappeared (sadly) this winter. In storm forecasts DonS has often been either top or top three in a field of 20-25 entries. I have had a much more variable record in the same contests but I did nail the Blizzard of 1888. Well 2010, one of those snowmageddon ones. And Nemo, or Juno (get them confused). But I have finished dead last a few times as well. Don is rarely out of the top third, maybe even never. There are many pros who don't know 10% of what Don knows. We have an annual snowfall contest over at the temperature forecast contest thread (main forum, nobody knows it's there) ... Don does well in those too, so does wxallannj who is a member here I believe, also RJay, hudsonvalley21, BKViking, dmillz25 from here (apologies if I missed anyone). Other Am-wx people with good track records in contests would include RodneyS, Tom, StormchaserChuck and wxdude64, plus Scotty Lightning who was once SD. Last year in particular so_whats_happening was very close to top. Various others who used to be great like Mallow, Stebo, DIT, Isotherm ... have dropped out over the years, in some cases probably because the NYC crew kept kicking their butts. The Mid-Atlantic forum is about on a par with NYC for contest exploits over many years.

Probably deep into phase 9.

DCA reported 1.99" liquid and 6.9" snow. If I'm generous and say .09" of that was freezing drizzle (probably an overestimate) then their snow report equals real snow plus sleet at some possible-to-calculate ratio after an assumption is made on the snowfall to liquid conversion. I will assume 10:1 in my calculation that follows. So let's say 5" real snow, then we have 5.0 + 1.40*(ratio/10) = 6.9 That reduces to 1.40*(ratio/10) = 1.9 and makes ratio/10 = .21, in other words a 2.1 : 1.0 ratio. Sleet ratios are often quoted at 3:1. For 3:1 to be correct, then snow at 10:1 is 2.7" .. that is clearly a low estimate based on regional reports. So either this was very watery sleet or very underestimated sleet. I would guess what really happened is that 3" of sleet pounded 6" of snow down to 4 inches and sat on top giving 7 inches.

12z GEM has a 960 low south of Long Island. I can guarantee you if that verifies the Boston train will not be pulling into Grand Central on time, or perhaps ever.

Some early maps look like the blizzard of 1888. But why stop there?

Patriots vs Hawks ... seems like a Trump cabinet meeting gone horribly wrong.

Potential storm is near full moon, would be big storm surge issues in e MA on some depictions. I have not formed an opinion on actual probability of this happening anywhere near land yet ... my usual method is to let smart people make that decision and then double down. Worked like a charm on the last one.

A hit at RIC (my residual is 3.0") combined with smaller amounts than I have left at the other three will knock out half to two-thirds of the remaining contenders no matter what happens later. I am the only one left with RIC snow to spare until you get way down into the big snow forecasts that will knock me out later I hope. -- except that Mappy also has 1.5" left and similar residuals elsewhere, so I guess together we couldl knock out all those others (residuals achieved = 2.0 x differential achieved). Our details on the other three are a bit different so mappy could survive a RIC 1.5 to 3.0 addition depending on how those break down. There are probably ways each of us could eliminate the other even if RIC goes past 3.0" additional. But that might be within a scenario where a larger set of forecasts eliminates both of us too. Another well-placed RIC residual belongs to wxdude64 with 3.2" left ... if my other three numbers get overtaken by very much, wxdude64 is waiting to finish me off a few inches into the overdraft. The RIC component is worth 0.4" alone to wxdude64 (by the 2 to 1 rule). Basically I could be done halfway through any big storm that includes RIC, and before that if RIC is excluded. My best chance is a bunch of small events that nickel and dime towards my residuals and are generous to RIC. (once it goes past my residual, the 2:1 rule changes to 1:1 no advantage for further amounts against lower forecasts) Exciting times, a contest with some suspense for the first time in several winters. With the pattern we have in place, some of the bigger numbers stand a chance but I like wxdude64's current situation and think that could be the favorite for bets right now.

BOS was past 19 inches last time they reported so I am hopeful of a W for BOS and that's the big highlight for my participation. I think final numbers will look something like NYC 11.5 BOS 20 BDL 16.5 ALB 12 PHL 9.3 DCA 6.9

Turns out that NYC tied the daily precip record of 1.80" for Jan 25, the earlier mentioned 1.82" includes .02" after midnight apparently. So it's a tie with the 1978 rainstorm component of the Great lakes blizzard/superstorm low that gave some places 15-30 inches of snow overnight into 26th Jan (1978). I will adjust any tables I have posted at end of month giving NYC a chance to settle their accounts, sometimes what you see one day is not there forever. Don, here's a challenge, I could work on this too, but what is the largest differential between a record snowfall and record precip or any precip on the 10:1 basis? I realize yesterday's storm was bulked up for precip by sleet that was also in the snowfall total. In Canadian climate records this might appear something like 0.20" rain and 12" snow for 1.80" precip. Canadian climate records show separate rain and snow amounts for every day and they seem to handle sleet a bit differently than U.S. practice. I am aware of one case where 40 mm of precip was really 10 cm of sleet but they give a 10 cm snow total for that case, and 30 mm rainfall. Part of the problem (if this can be described as a problem) is that Canadian observing practice was strictly 10:1 snow to precip untiil 1962 then changed to melt-it-down whatever-it-actually-was conversions after 1962. Thus if I look at some old storm record and it says 10.0" snow, 1.15" precip and 0.15" rain, I cannot say for sure whether that was rain, freezing rain, sleet melted down or whatever. Anyway, yesterday's differential was about 0.66" from 10:1, some values in Feb 1920 are definitely larger on a daily basis.

Toronto City as it is now known used to be a first-order station from its founding in 1840 through to about the 1980s, it gradually became more of a well-maintained climate station but the data have been reported more or less daily all along and I took it upon myself to maintain the data base even though Environment Canada nowadays seem to ignore that data base and only give out press releases about YYZ (Toronto airport, located about 12 miles west of downtown Toronto) where the period of record is 1938 to present. So there are a lot of very significant climate records like the 1936 heat wave that aren't in the YYZ data base. Toronto City has always been located somewhere within 0.5 miles of its longest situated location at the old headquarters building of the former Dominion of Canada weather service at 315 Bloor Street West. This building, next to Varsity Stadium, is now part of the U of T campus. Before 1908 the observations were made about 0.5 miles southeast of there near what is now Hart House and was then Kings College, basically a block west of Queens Park (the Ontario legislature building). Some time around 2003 they stopped making observations at the old h.q. building (which had been replaced by a much larger modern version in suburban Toronto), and moved the instruments to a suitable well-exposed location near Trinity College on the university campus. I assume it is read once daily around 0800h and also the instruments seem to be capable of sending some data hourly because the station reports are hourly as well as daily even nowadays. There was a problem with missing data, I worked through all missing data cases and found that 90% of them could easily be estimated from the hourly observations because those "missing" days were only missing an hour or two and not usually ones critical for estimating max and min temps. Whether by luck or design, almost all the missing days (I would say maybe a total of 50 from 2003 to 2025) are evidently dry days from regional zero reports. I also found that 2020 rainfall data had been compromised to some extent by daily small values that appeared to be the result of lawn sprinkler water getting into rain gauges (Toronto City was showing rain almost every day for several months when other stations were dry). So it's a bit of a challenge to maintain this data base but I have done it best as I can -- as they close in on 200 years of data, I feel they should duplicate my work (I know from experience they won't accept anything I say as in Canada I am basically a non-person) and bring the records back from the dead. Up until around 1980 there was a fully maintained data base with daily records etc. So I have basically extended that to the present day. I was going off memory quoting some of the all-time records, now that I have my file open I can be more precise. The existing one-day records and top ten calendar day amounts (any before 1978 were originally recorded in inches and those after 1978 have been converted from metric) for Toronto City are 1. 19.0" Dec 11 1944 t2. 18.0" Feb 14, 1850, Feb 22, 1846 t4. 16.0" Feb 5, 1863 and Mar 27, 1870 6. 15.7" Jan 23 1966 t8. 15.0" Jan 20 1867 and Mar 21, 1867 and Dec 25 1872, Dec 29 1855 12. 14.9" Jan 2 1999 (38.0 cm) Two-day record values (probably overnight storms) are 23.0" Dec 25-26 1872 (15.0 + 8.0) 22.5" Dec 11-12 1944 (19.0 + 3.5) 22.0" Feb 22-23 1846 (18.0 + 4.0) 20.0" Mar 15-16 1870 (10.0 + 10.0) 19.5" Jan 23-24 1873 (14.3 + 5.2). 18.0" Jan 20-21 1867, 16.6" 18.0" Feb 5-6 1863 (16.0 + 2.0) and also 24-25 1868 (12.0 + 6.0) (18.0" Feb 1850 daily value was not increased by any amounts either side) 16.6" Jan 22-23 1966 16.5" Mar 21-22 1867 15.5" Mar 8-9 1931 (12.5 + 3.0) also Mar 20-21 1876 (9.0 + 6.5) _______________________ The Nov 2d record is 12.5" from Nov 24-25 1950 and the April record is 9.4" from Apr 2-3 1975. As you can see almost all the top ten snowstorms were before YYZ data began. The average snowfall in 19th century winters was about 25% greater than any 30-year averages in the 20th century. 1869-1870 was the snowiest winter back in that era.

May have been two calendar days like an overnight storm? Toronto has never had a 20" calendar day storm (I have not had time to check the latest on yesterday) but it has three or four overnight 20 to 23 inch storm totals. I recall doing a study on all 8.0" two day totals for Toronto (hundreds of data points) and about half of them had a significant amount on a second consecutive day. So only about half of all snowstorms there manage to occur all within one calendar day, or mostly if we eliminate the 0.1 and 0.2 add-ons. A few storms require three calendar days to play out to their totals but I never did a census on those because in a fast-moving pattern there can easily be two separate events contained in three days of snowfall data.

Preliminary and needing to be checked from later data, but Toronto (downtown) may have had its heaviest January one-day snowfall ever (since 1843 when snowfall records begin). Reports are in the 18-20 inch range. This was 80% lake enhancement boosting a wider 5" synoptic scale snowfall. The previous record was 44 cm (meas 16.6" at the time) set Jan 23, 1966 (not the later coastal blizzard on 1-29). A very close second was 40 cm Jan 2, 1999. After that one and two later moderate falls, Toronto had its greatest snow depth of 65 cm (26 in). The current one-day record for any month was 19.5" (about 47 cm) Dec 11, 1944. February and March also have higher one-day records than January but that may not be the case after this new record is verified.

I took a blend of the Eduggs and the DonS models and assumed the NAM might be right about the sleet. But I think my broken abacus was a problem.

How is he getting out?