jaxjagman

Could be cache?

I use google chrome awesome pic,but i can understand how tinypic works

Similar pattern it would turn cold with the AK warming by the weeklies,can you make your screen bigger when you post with tinypic?It could make the clarity better?

This is the strongest +IOD on record this year since 1982 per SINTEX.In Feb the of 2007 the IOD was still reading + but this is typical of strong IOD events.Every year since 1982 not counting this year there has always been a moderate to strong LaNina the following ,.1995,1997,2007 Unlike the low solar years like this year these IOD events have happened into the mid decades which makes this seem rather unusual to an extent Even with the low solar there has never been a SSW IN 1994-1995 AND 1997-1998.This could have some merit because of a stronger ENSO compared to 2006-2007. In 2006-2007 The ENSO was a border line weak-moderate ElNino winter.But this was the only winter season to actually have a SSW into Feb.It got real cold though in Feb of 2007,there is also signs of a SSW upcoming.Who know at this point,but something to keep an eye on.. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/200702

Surface has cooled some since the last update in 3.Towards the end of the month into the first of next it looks possibly another KW will get to 3 again,seems possible just as well the MJO could get into 8 unlike what the RMM'S are showing today killing it off in 7.But either way the signal looks weak

Starting to think you were on to something back into early Dec,Seems possible the cold pool waters will get sfifted eastwards thats into 3.The subsurface is cooling west of the IDL,plus we have an active CCKW starting to get past the IDL which should help upwell the warmer subsurface east of it

Looks like a active CCKW is passing east of the IDL.The subsurface is warm as well.3.4 ,3 AND 1.2.Seemingly the STJ is going to get active towards the end of the month into the first of next.Seems like the up and downs of the SOI we could be looking at a decent system around this time .need teleconnections to work out for once tho Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 19 Jan 2020 1012.31 1007.65 0.24 -5.28 -6.36 18 Jan 2020 1010.58 1007.80 -8.62 -5.57 -6.28 17 Jan 2020 1009.03 1007.95 -16.62 -5.51 -6.06 16 Jan 2020 1009.70 1007.85 -13.00 -5.22 -5.76 15 Jan 2020 1009.84 1007.70 -11.63 -5.24 -5.59 14 Jan 2020 1009.50 1007.15 -10.64 -5.35 -5.43 13 Jan 2020 1009.89 1005.85 -2.68 -5.49 -5.34 12 Jan 2020 1009.84 1005.45 -1.03 -5.78 -5.46

This sucks For folks using my Albany webpage for tropical meteorology monitoring, I've been made aware that the rainfall dataset I've been using has been retired. I will be retiring any product with rainfall as a result. This will mean no more monsoon or rainrate products.

Forgot what cold was like.least i got to see some some snow in Chicago yesterday.We pulled in about an hr before some heavy snow started yesterday afternoon,snowed about 4 inches but the warm nose kicked in and changed it over into rain while i was sleeping.Winds are westerly now so the flakes should end soon as the trough passes by.Cold night tho wind chills of around -15 when we check out early in he morning.Son wants to get home in time to watch the titans tomorrow so i told him we'd leave early..arrrggg

Subsurface has warmed somewhat,not much change with the surface,not much left of the cooler subsurface in the east as well.

Some of NOAA'a sites seem to be down

Its still weak and maybe to late,but a definite QBO switch upcoming

15-0..there i just jinxed us

Yeah i have no doubts there are more EF-4 and probably even more EF5 before hand we just dont know

I see what you are saying,but these were downgraded https://www.weather.gov/ohx/forgottenf5

But this was in Alabama,it's marked on that link i posted above from NOAA

There's only been one confirmed F-5 in Tn since 1950,that was the Lawrenceburg one,now if you want to consider parts of Northern Alabama as parts of the Valley,i'd agree with you.Its really insane tho if you look at North Alabama per capita how many F-5'S they had,that's just crazy https://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/f5torns.html

You definite want to keep the GEFS look.Even tho it loses the -NAO it keeps the -EPO with a +PNA starting up still around the 19th-20th,least it's showing consistency

That's the GFS upcoming

I didnt word that right,it was after about 45 min to an hr the convection started after the squall passed.I went back and looked at the K-Index on all the models there shouldn't have beeen much of any post convection,its still lightning and thunder here

Convection of this system seemed to lag behind the main line.We've had thunder now for almost 45 min recently after that main squall passed,every model did a poor job with the mesoscales in our parts

Amazing how cold the GEFS is compared to the GFS,i'm wondering if the last upgrade of the GEFS helped the thermals with the hi-res upgrade?GEFS use to have a warm bias,not to oftern you see it that cold,especiallly here in the long range.But then again,i might have forgotten what cold is anymore..lol

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to spread across the Mid South and central Gulf States today. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible. Localized damaging-wind threat will be noted with convection across the Ohio Valley and Middle Atlantic. ...Discussion... Intense 500mb speed max is translating through the base of a strong short-wave trough over the southern Plains late this evening. This feature should become negatively tilted during the day as flow increases to near 120kt at 500mb over the OH Valley by early evening. In response to this feature, primary surface low will track along a polar front along the OH River into southeast IN. This should allow modified warm sector to surge ahead of the front into portions of the OH Valley. Even so, forecast soundings north of the TN Valley do not exhibit much instability, and convection that evolves ahead of the strongly-forced short wave should struggle to produce lightning. Will maintain low severe probs for locally damaging winds ahead of the intense speed max. Of more concern will be convection that is ongoing at the start of the period along a strong front near the MS River. Late this evening, a well-organized squall line was advancing east across AR/east TX toward LA. This activity is handled well by 00z model guidance which surges a squall line into western MS by the start of the day1 period. Earlier thoughts regarding this convective scenario remain. Strongly sheared linear MCS is expected to advance across the central Gulf States during the first half of the period. Environmental shear strongly favors supercells but the primary convective mode should be linear along a strongly forced boundary. Damaging winds are the primary threat with this activity, though embedded circulations could pose some tornado threat. It's not entirely clear how much pre-frontal discrete convection will develop due to limited heating. Even so, surface dew points rising into the upper 60s should be adequate for surface-based supercells. Given the forecast shear, tornadoes are certainly possible, especially if discrete convection can develop ahead of the squall line. Downstream across the Middle Atlantic, increasing southerly flow will allow boundary-layer moisture to advance north across the Carolinas into VA where 60s surface dew points are expected during the overnight hours. While warm advection will undoubtedly encourage showers across this region, the primary large-scale forcing will spread across the OH Valley into the northern Middle Atlantic. Forecast soundings suggest modest lapse rates which do not allow for meaningful instability to materialize across this region. Despite the strengthening wind fields, will opt to maintain 5% severe probs due to weaker forcing and meager buoyancy. ..Darrow/Nauslar.. 01/11/2020

Rotation by Fairfeild Bay