jaxjagman

Getting dizzy yet ?

.The Euro and NAM has better instability unlike the GFS.The GFS could be just as right with clouds and rain before .One thing if the GFS is right Nashville will have some problems with flash flooding GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z APR10 * - APPROXIMATED 6 HR 6 HR SNCVR TOTAL SFC 2 M 1000 1000 QPF CVP LIQ QPF PCP TMP 500 850 (IN) (IN) (IN) (IN) TYPES (C) THK THK SUN 00Z 12-APR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.6 557 136 SUN 06Z 12-APR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RA 12.7 558 136 SUN 12Z 12-APR 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.06 11.2 558 135 SUN 18Z 12-APR 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.21 RA 15.5 562 137 MON 00Z 13-APR 2.56 0.02 0.00 2.77 RA 14.9 567 138 MON 06Z 13-APR 0.98 0.16 0.00 3.75 16.8 558 138 MON 12Z 13-APR 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.76 RA 11.3 554 134 MON 18Z 13-APR 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.76 8.7 546 131 TUE 00Z 14-APR 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.76 7.6 541 131 Edit:I'm just taking about in our parts,to avoid confusion

Yes sir

The Euro 18z is even stronger with the ULR and the system goes -ve tilt into the S/plains and heads towards the Lakes

Watch the trends here the last few runs with the Upper level Ridge in the east

I agree with the pollen,its been brutal

I think the HRRR missed the boat,talk about bad ,can't say much for the other models either.Models are not doing a very good job lately

NMME into fall

Big shift to the west overnight

We'll see what kind of cap comes with it

Boring looking pattern for severe,for us anyways in the Valley.The Euro seemingly is flip flopping quite a bit recently. Probably are going to have to wait several more days this is when the MJO goes into 8-1-2 outside the COD.Today it looks more like the trough axis is going to basically be around the Valley somewhere mid range and possibly beyond with BN temps,least that how it looks today ECMWF minus Climo FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z APR04 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 04-APR 0.2 1.8 1 36 3 2 SAT 18Z 04-APR 10.0 2.0 0 29 4 4 SUN 00Z 05-APR 5.4 3.3 -1 1073 26 39.33 3 4 SUN 06Z 05-APR 0.6 3.2 0 1087 33 39.33 3 3 SUN 12Z 05-APR -1.8 2.9 1 1096 18 39.33 3 2 SUN 18Z 05-APR 10.2 2.8 1 1051 7 39.33 5 3 MON 00Z 06-APR 6.2 3.3 1 13 5 5 MON 06Z 06-APR 0.0 3.6 2 6 6 4 MON 12Z 06-APR -1.7 3.2 3 -2 7 4 MON 18Z 06-APR 10.6 3.0 2 -5 8 6 TUE 00Z 07-APR 6.9 4.8 -1 3 7 8 TUE 06Z 07-APR 3.2 5.4 -2 32 7 8 TUE 12Z 07-APR 2.7 5.6 -2 42 7 9 TUE 18Z 07-APR 12.7 5.8 -4 -20 8 11 WED 00Z 08-APR 8.2 7.9 -7 -7 7 12 WED 06Z 08-APR 5.8 8.8 -7 -20 7 13 WED 12Z 08-APR 6.1 6.8 -6 -17 5 10 WED 18Z 08-APR 12.5 8.0 -7 -24 5 11 THU 00Z 09-APR 9.3 8.2 -10 -23 4 12 THU 06Z 09-APR 6.1 8.3 -12 -23 2 12 THU 12Z 09-APR 3.5 3.8 -8 22 0 7 THU 18Z 09-APR 4.2 0.9 -5 -6 -1 3 FRI 00Z 10-APR -0.2 -3.3 -5 4 -4 0 FRI 06Z 10-APR -5.1 -6.6 -2 31 -6 -4 FRI 12Z 10-APR -8.3 -9.9 0 -8 -8 -8 FRI 18Z 10-APR -0.9 -8.8 -1 -42 -8 -7 SAT 00Z 11-APR -3.6 -7.2 -3 -39 -9 -7 SAT 06Z 11-APR -8.9 -8.4 -1 -32 -10 -9 SAT 12Z 11-APR -9.5 -9.3 1 -1 -10 -10 SAT 18Z 11-APR 0.1 -7.7 0 -4 -9 -9 SUN 00Z 12-APR -3.2 -6.2 -1 -13 -8 -7 SUN 06Z 12-APR -7.9 -3.9 0 -1 -7 -7 SUN 12Z 12-APR -8.9 -1.4 0 4 -5 -5 SUN 18Z 12-APR 5.4 -0.7 -1 1 -2 -1 MON 00Z 13-APR 1.7 0.2 -1 21 -1 1 MON 06Z 13-APR -5.1 -0.9 4 27 0 -3 MON 12Z 13-APR -6.7 -4.8 7 34 -1 -6 MON 18Z 13-APR -2.6 -6.1 9 34 1 -6 TUE 00Z 14-APR -7.3 -7.1 10 1059 39 39.34 0 -8 TUE 06Z 14-APR -9.5 -7.8 10 1071 41 39.34 -1 -8 TUE 12Z 14-APR -8.5 -8.1 10 1055 44 39.33 -2 -10

If you want to use short range models for free the best site to use is this https://weathermodels.com/ Click on the link at the bottom where it says try it for free,then click model,pain is the ass to navigate but its free Edit:Thats not the greatest tool in the shed,just noticed it dont update a day or two earlier

Probably low but that might depend on where they at?Winds look like they might be blowing from the N around 5kts at TYS April fools morn with temps in the mid to upper 30's,higher elevations should still see snow maybe

Fairly quiet looking pattern upcoming the next several days in our parts.Like Jeff mentioned in another thread ,we're getting into a -NAO,for a few days anyways,.The AAM is going in the wrong direction.The MJO is fixing to lose signals.To top all that off that EPS is hinting at an Upper Level Ridge building in the long range.After that seemingly around day 10 right now the ULR might weaken or get kicked out to the east.SIPS shows a more severe pattern could possibly be back during this time.Does not mean we cant get severe,it's spring,its not a great look right now for several days IMO

Subsurface is cooling fast other than the Humboldt doing its thing,the warmest subsurface are now east of the IDL

Not very exciting in our parts.The system seemed to slow down and acted more as an ANA front,hope all is well in Jonesboro tho

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 74 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 935 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Middle Tennessee * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 935 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Line of strong to severe thunderstorms over western Tennessee will progress east across middle Tennessee tonight with a risk for damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 80 miles south southwest of Nashville TN to 40 miles northeast of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline updat

Tornado Warning TNC069-075-113-290215- /O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0023.200329T0148Z-200329T0215Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Memphis TN 848 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Hardeman County in western Tennessee... Southeastern Haywood County in western Tennessee... Southwestern Madison County in western Tennessee... * Until 915 PM CDT. * At 848 PM CDT, doppler radar indicated severe thunderstorms producing both tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage were located over Hillville, or 13 miles south of Brownsville, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Jackson, Bemis, Hillville, Cloverport, Mercer, Medon, Neely, Pinson, Malesus, Parkburg, Huntersville, Cedar Chapel, Vildo, Hatchie, Westover, Madison Hall, Uptonville, Denmark and Leighton.

Mesoscale Discussion 0262 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0825 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Areas affected...Northern MS...Northwest AL...Western/Middle TN Concerning...Tornado Watch 71... Valid 290125Z - 290300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 71 continues. SUMMARY...Squall line is organizing and shifting east across ww71. New tornado watch will likely be issued by 0230z. DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing appears to be aiding upward evolving squall line across the Mid-South this evening. Over the last few hours a slow maturation has been noted and its forward propagation is on the order of 35kt to the east. This speed/movement would place the leading edge of strongest convection near the eastern edge of ww71 around 03z and through much of Middle TN into northwestern AL by 06z. New tornado watch will likely be issued by 0230z.

Probably watch into the western Valley this area could possibly have some strong storms fixing to FIRE up running into some SBCAPES AROUND 2K,in the next hr or two

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE MIDWEST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms posing a threat for tornadoes, damaging wind and large hail will continue this evening into the overnight from a portion of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys into the Midwest region. ...Midwest region... The warm sector is in the process of being pinched off across northeast IA suggesting the tornado threat in this region should end by 02Z. However...additional storms are developing farther south across northwestern and west central IL and will move eastward into central and eastern IL where the 00Z RAOB from Lincoln indicated around 800 J/kg MLCAPE, large low-level hodographs and 80 kt effective bulk shear. This environment will continue to support organized storms incuding supercells capable of producing tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong this evening. ...Tennessee and Ohio Valleys... A secondary branch of the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen tonight from middle TN into the OH Valley in association with a strong upper jet moving through the base of a progressive trough situated across the Midwest. This will contribute to modest low-level theta-e advection with MUCAPE from 500 to 1000 J/kg as well as large hodographs with 300-400 m2/s2 0-1 km storm-relative helicity within an otherwise strongly sheared environment. The band of scattered storms developing along the warm conveyor belt from southwest IN into western TN and northwest MS will likely maintain embedded organized structures including supercells and bowing segments capable of tornadoes, damaging wind and large hail as they develop eastward into the overnight.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 71 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 635 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far eastern Arkansas Far southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Missouri Boothell Northwest Mississippi Western Tennessee * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 635 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Extensive clusters of thunderstorms will evolve east-northeast tonight. Tornado risk through mid-evening will be greatest across the Kentucky and Tennessee portions of the watch, with an increasing risk towards late evening across Mississippi. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles north of Evansville IN to 25 miles south of Greenville MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

Mesoscale Discussion 0255 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Areas affected...Eastern AR...Northern MS...Western TN/KY...Southeast MO/IL Concerning...Tornado Watch 68...70... Valid 282159Z - 282300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68, 70 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat will shift east of WWs 68/69 over the next few hours. New tornado watch may be warranted soon. DISCUSSION...Latest NAM guidance suggests LLJ will strengthen across the western TN Valley this evening as 500mb speed max increases in excess of 100kt from AR into western KY over the next 03-06hr. Earlier trends suggesting a QLCS might be evolving across AR now favor a mix of discrete supercells and clusters. This may be in part to expected strengthening wind fields. Over the next few hours, ongoing corridor of supercells over eastern portions of ww68 should approach, then spread east of the watch. This will necessitate a new tornado watch soon.