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jaxjagman

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Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. jaxjagman
    Seems like the models are trending slower today,what was looking like like height rises around the 9th and 10th look to be getting pushed back to more the 11th or 12th or around there,seems like any cool down will be around the 17th now give or take thats just my take right now
  2. jaxjagman
    Seems like the MJO keeps getting pushed back each day into the WP,There is still considerable spread
  3. jaxjagman
    It's bombogenesis once it hits the gulf stream.Surprised it didnt go OTS
  4. jaxjagman
    I still think what Carver has been saying is close ,the heights the EPS is showing fall into East China and Korea as we get into Feb is a cold sign for us here,sometimes the jet extension can stay in East Asia despite,still some concern where the MJO will be at and where it actually goes
  5. jaxjagman
    I still wonder where the MJO will be at,it retracts back into Asia but get enhanced once again,could be where its doing all its things into ph7
  6. jaxjagman
    Lots more ensembles joined in today for the NH party,just dont like the mean going into the COD,it wouldnt be a game breaker but still
  7. jaxjagman
  8. jaxjagman
    Euro MJO seems to go bonkers into the WP because its been showing another WWB as we get into Feb,its been holding on to keeping the MJO into the WP for a extended stay and hasnt backed down much of any.CFS has been showing the same thing on the velocity but its also been showing a suppressed MJO signal with the 2nd WWB and the MJO is more advanced headed towards Africa and the Western IO into wk2 of Feb today
  9. jaxjagman
    I'm not saying this will happen or will be politically correct,but the pattern does have some resemblence to Feb 2021.Once again this is not a forecast Overview An Arctic airmass spread across Middle Tennessee from Thursday February 11 through Sunday February 14, 2021, bringing very cold temperatures in the teens and 20s along with lengthy periods of freezing drizzle. This led to ice forming on elevated surfaces such as trees and power lines, as well as bridges, overpasses, and some roadways. As a major winter storm brought additional freezing rain, sleet, and snow to the area from Sunday evening February 14 into Monday February 15, 2021, the previous ice combined with the new ice, sleet, and snow to cause significant ice storm damage across parts of east-central Middle Tennessee, as well as create massive travel disruptions areawide. Locations from Giles and Lincoln Counties northeastward to Pickett and northern Fentress Counties received anywhere from 0.5" to over 1" of ice accretion from the combination of the weekend freezing drizzle plus new freezing rain. Numerous trees and power lines were downed in many counties, resulting in tens of thousands of power outages, with the worst damage affecting Lincoln, Bedford, Coffee, Cannon, Putnam, Overton, and northern Fentress Counties. Elsewhere, 2 to 3 inches of combined sleet and snow along with the frigid temperatures caked most surfaces in a thick layer of ice, with travel coming to a standstill across the northwestern half of Middle Tennessee - including the Nashville metro area. https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2021/01/22/mjo-forecast-and-stratospheric-warming/
  10. jaxjagman
    I'm not sure myself,there is signs tho the AO could crash right now but you'd need other teles to work in tandem
  11. jaxjagman
  12. jaxjagman
    Much as i gave up on the MJO this morning i'm much more of a skeptic once again where the MJO will be at.Seems more Euro ensembles today are more on the faster side like the velocity has been showing
  13. jaxjagman
    Should be out west not the east
  14. jaxjagman
    Most of the models in the long range models shows a ridge into East Asia,with height rises into East China/Korea,that should be a warm look towards Feb 8-9th around that time anyways for us,maybe some hints also that some sort of change is upcoming afterwards into Mongolia and China on that map.If the GFS is anywhere right we should see a cool down shortly after,this is a cold look in the lower latitude of East Asia,but we all know how the GFS can whiff at this range
  15. jaxjagman
    Guess ill give up on the MJO being more adavanced,it dont seem to have much support,the next 10 days the Euro ensembles are pretty much bunched up into the WP
  16. jaxjagman
    I busted my ass on the ice trying to get the trash to the curb.Trash hasnt ran in 2 weeks so i had to try but it didn't work,sprained my left knee and left wrist,no broke bones anyways
  17. jaxjagman
    It seems that way.There is some slight differences.When we saw the last jet extension(+EAMT)in Dec the GWO gained momentum we also saw the MJO strenghten into WH headed towards Africa,this time looks different and with question marks.The GWO is certainly,seemingly gaining momentum compared to in Dec but questions still loom where the MJO is going.Also around Christmas the SOI was more coupled with a NINO 25 Dec 2023 1009.91 1007.95 -9.13 -3.78 -6.83 24 Dec 2023 1007.62 1009.15 -27.25 -3.37 -6.80 23 Dec 2023 1006.15 1009.45 -36.43 -2.68 -6.55 The SOI in late Dec(top) was more coupled with Nino.Soi as of late(bottom) looks like we are in a NINA 21 Jan 2024 1010.18 1003.25 10.93 5.24 -1.69 20 Jan 2024 1010.92 1003.10 15.13 3.85 -1.89 19 Jan 2024 1011.60 1002.65 20.45 2.87 -2.30 18 Jan 2024 1011.14 1002.35 19.70 2.12 -2.79 The GWO is certainly on the rise but compared to this time Oh well its just a waiting game it seems.I posted the GWO for comparison to around Christmas time,its really similar right now
  18. jaxjagman
    Still curious about the MJO.GEFS show a +EAMT as the MJO goes into the Pac its enhances the Jet extension into the Pac,as it leaves the Jet retracts back towards Asia
  19. jaxjagman
    Guess he had enough of social media,well this just sucks https://twitter.com/burgwx
  20. jaxjagman
    Seriously is the MJO gonna be where the Euro seems to be at?Euro mean and CFS look quite similar with the MJO progression
  21. jaxjagman
    Its just my interpretation of where the MJO could/should be at as be head into Feb
  22. jaxjagman
  23. jaxjagman
    Pretty sure it stays at 32
  24. jaxjagman
    It should be misting here for a bit longer,it never has been shown to be a strong system,very little QPF,higher elevations can always get upslope
  25. jaxjagman
    Here is a good OBS site if anyone is looking for one,its pretty good to a sense https://weatherobs.com/
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