jaxjagman

We didnt even get a sprinkle

lol..yall hit the gold mine

I dont think Nino is going to matter to much going forward,its still fairly strong right now

Nah,we're good and no worries,I knew what you meant

Yeah i know,i agree with you.I'm hoping it dont myself,almost showing shades of like 2020-21 sorta

Finally updated today it looked good yesterday but not today

hopefully we see our first snow of the year here .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1240 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 A slow-moving closed upper-level low will be the main feature to watch through the extended. On Wednesday, this low slowly tracks southeastward through Missouri, and by late Wednesday night, shower activity may begin to develop across far northwest portions of our area. Showers spread eastward through Middle TN through the day on Thursday, and then likely become focused across the east by early Friday. This is a cold system so temperatures will fall with its arrival which of course has an impact on our precipitation type. With temperatures in the low to mid-30`s to start the day Thursday, precipitation will likely begin as a rain- snow mix before changing to primarily rain as temperatures warm into the 40`s. A changeover back to snow or a rain-snow mix would then be favored Thursday night and into Friday morning as temperatures fall again. As far as accumulations go, at this time it`s still not looking like anything to get too excited about. Model guidance is in disagreement about how far south the upper-level low will manage to track. The GFS and its ensembles in particular track a stronger, colder closed low directly overhead, and as such, have greater probabilities of accumulating snow. It`s definitely something to watch to see if that trend persists, but for now, am leaning towards the majority of guidance which doesn`t dig the low quite as far south. Rain and snow showers come to an end Friday as the closed low finally exits. By the end, best probabilities of accumulating snow will be along the Cumberland Plateau. Some locations in Fentress/Cumberland counties may receive accumulations near a half inch.

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1739373353310265673/photo/1

Mr,Bob dont speak much these days huh...lol...Merry Christmas to everyone !!

Merry Christmas Mr.Bob,i see you lurking

https://twitter.com/jfd118/status/1739256578346299588/photo/2

Should be possibly a cold front around New Years day as a trough is going through East Asia today but the NAO looks +ive generally cold chasing rain right now look.Still looks like a -ve NAO/AO as we head towards wk 2 of Jan but the PNA is more neutral right now by the GEFS

The SOI has crashed the last couple days 23 Dec 2023 1006.15 1009.45 -36.43 -2.68 -6.55 22 Dec 2023 1006.81 1009.00 -30.67 -2.01 -6.23 21 Dec 2023 1008.66 1007.70 -14.32 -1.59 -6.04 20 Dec 2023 1009.98 1006.70 -2.28 -1.72 -6.09 19 Dec 2023 1010.66 1006.85 0.47 -1.91 -6.36 18 Dec 2023 1010.45 1006.60 0.67 -1.87 -6.65 17 Dec 2023 1011.50 1006.35 7.42 -1.79 -6.95 16 Dec 2023 1011.48 1005.45 11.99 -2.04 -7.25 15 Dec 2023 1010.25 1005.75 4.05 -2.78 -7.56 By the looks of this afternoons GEFS it shows a ridge in East Asia around the New Year then followed by troughs.East Asia should turn cold again like several days ago but this time as it turns cold its showing better teleconnections for us.When it got cold in East Asia several days ago we was dealing with a +ve NAO/AO this time its quite opposite with a more -ve NAO/AO.But if everything holds we should see a ridge in the east into the first week of Jan then a chance to be colder as we get into wk2

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1738191160076554407/photo/1

GFS is trying,but this is the fairytale time frame of it.

I know,where does the MJO go when we get near the mid month of Jan?If the CFS is anywhere right,much of Jan shouldnt be that horrid

Still looks like a strung out mess Christmas day.GFS got slightly better this afternoon,but it still looks like a mess

Euro today at least shows the MJO headed into WP/WH around Christmas,we seemingly will have to wait maybe for some sort of pattern change for awhile.MV has a vid about the extratropics and MJO correlation if you wish to watch https://ams.confex.com/ams/95Annual/videogateway.cgi/id/29036?recordingid=29036

December Tornado Stats Stewart County First tornado in Stewart County since 12/10/2021 No reported deaths or injuries as of 930pm on 12/9 Montgomery County First December tornado on record in Montgomery County First tornado in Montgomery County since 6/19/2021 Deadliest tornado in Montgomery County since April 27, 1970 3 reported deaths are the first in a tornado in Montgomery County since November 10, 2002 (2 deaths) Robertson County First December tornado on record in Robertson County First tornado in Robertson County since 5/4/2021 No reported deaths as of 930pm on 12/9 Dickson County First tornado in Dickson County since 12/11/2021 No reported deaths or injuries as of 930pm on 12/9 There have been 4 tornadoes on record in Dickson County in December (3 of which happened on 12/11/21, 2 EF2s) Cheatham County First tornado in Cheatham County since 12/11/2021 No reported deaths or injuries as of 930pm on 12/9 Davidson County First tornado in Davidson County since 12/11/2021 Deadliest tornado in Davidson County since March 14, 1933 (11 fatalities) 3 reported deaths are the first in a tornado in Davidson County since March 3, 2020 March 3, 2020 tornado had 2 deaths in Davidson County (3 in Wilson County) There have been 7 tornadoes on record in Davidson County in December (highest is an EF-2 on 12/11/2021 Sumner County First tornado in Sumner County since 12/11/2021 Unknown deaths or injuries as of 930pm on 12/9 There have been 4 tornadoes on record in Sumner County in December (F2 highest in 1924, two EF-0s and one EF-1 on 12/11/2021). December 9, 2023 Areawide tornado stats Since the 1800s, there have been 37 tornadoes in the month of December (21 occurred in December 2021, 5 on 12/6 and 16 on 12/10-11) From the 1800s through 2020, only 17 tornadoes were recorded across Middle Tennessee in the month of December (1 occurred in 1800s) Strongest tornado in December in Middle Tennessee was an F4 tornado in Williamson County on 12/24/1988 Other notable EF 3 December tornadoes: December 23, 2015 EF-3 (Wayne, Lawrence, Lewis, Maury) December 10, 2021 EF-3 in Stewart County Since the 1800s there have only been 8 prior tornado fatalities in the month of December, making December 9, 2023 the deadliest December tornado outbreak in Middle TN history Prior December tornado deaths include: 2 fatalities 12/23/2015 Perry/Hickman EF-2 tornado 1 death from the EF4 12/24/1988 Williamson County EF-4 tornado 5 deaths from the 12/28/1865 Giles County Tornado https://www.weather.gov/ohx/20231209

Only what i heard yesterday

13 confirmed last i heard,maybe more when its said and done

Cool one day lets go chase something together,we are pretty close

The EMON looks quite similar to the CFS.Has it into Africa and IO into the new year

You live by there?