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jaxjagman

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  1. jaxjagman
    Yes,im not sure even MV does maint on his sites anymore,but i still use it,so it could be wrong for sure
  2. jaxjagman
    This has been what the JMA has been showing and the folllowing year generally leads back into a NINA the following winter
  3. jaxjagman
    Seemingly or more likely we are headed towards a EQBO,i still think there would be little sample size what this winter will be,but more than likely as some of maps shown above,who knows maybe we will get suprised(ducking)..lol Edit:meant westerly WQBO
  4. jaxjagman
    i did some research a couple days ago how a strong Nino effects our area or region.In general Dec can have some strong tornadoes which surprised me because we dont see this in NINO into winter,in Jan along the Appalachian Mountains has flooding and a freak IP/SN happens in Feb Edit:Other wise its going to be AN with with temps
  5. jaxjagman
    I understand,i'd like to see it also myself..lol
  6. jaxjagman
    Thats kinda what i thought you was talking about,i dont know myself where to find that and even with the hype of a super NINA i would think the skill score of any model would be fairly low,if it even makes it to Super..JMO
  7. jaxjagman
    I think this goes out the furthest dont it?I know JMA goes through Dec,but i'm not sure this is what you are looking for https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-nmme
  8. jaxjagman
    Its been boring here,almost like 2022 where we only had 5 tornadoes the whole year,thats really surprising to me in 2022 it was mainly a moderate NINA the whole year
  9. jaxjagman
    It seems like it could level off for a brief time,the MJO is forecast to stay into the IO for a brief time but this seems like its from the Rossby Wave train into the IO with a Kelvin Wave moving towards the Peruvian coast,you can see this as 1.2 is starting to rise now from downwelling Kelvin Wave.Another big WWB seems to be coming past mid month somewhere along the IDL
  10. jaxjagman
    All good,i guess work does come before play..lol..Good to see you back tho !! Its always good to read your post and Jeff during severe to read yalls thoughts.Looks like you have a shot middle of next week,lots of uncertainty in our parts. In the long range the MJO seems to be getting stuck into the IO by a Rossby Wave plus also you have a Kelvin in the east so the signal is getting destroyed.But if the -AAM can stayed coupled with the MJO,we could get rather active in the long range
  11. jaxjagman
    You talk to Vortex any?I seen where they had a tornado recently around where he lives,he went AWOL on us
  12. jaxjagman
    These models can be real shitty with severe,just like today.Nashville has been telling people for the last few days to not let your guard down today,which the models have been showing with basically wind dmg.We didnt get next to nothing,not even a drop of rain
  13. jaxjagman
    Wouldnt trust any model right now in our parts,GFS even looks much better tonight,east of the Cymberland,late Monday
  14. jaxjagman
    This should even kick off phoons once again,even tho this is 360 hrs out by the GFS from Rossby and plus Kelvin waves.
  15. jaxjagman
    This looks like another Rossby Wave west of the IDL,while some RMMS are hinting the MJO could possibly go back into the WP,the MJO signal seemingly is getting destructive interference from this and is into the WH.I see the CFS is already showing another strong WWB but be carefulll looking at this or any models,that WWB last time wasnt as strong east of the IDL and was more or less picked up at times by the Rossby Wave train.
  16. jaxjagman
    Yes the last few runs the GFS develops a cap in MID TN Into the east,but we'll see soon enough how strong that cap actually is as the, LLJ kicks something like 35-45 kts,that cap might not materialize as shown.Might be picking shit from cherry blossoms other wise with severe..lol On the other hand the last few runs could be a better severe threat even early Wed,maybe nocturnal if the shortwave around the MO/Valley is real what the Euro is showing
  17. jaxjagman
    More like the whole state.TN leads leads the nation with 46% being nocturnal tornadoes
  18. jaxjagman
    Severe is to hard to be predict/modeled than snow.We even saw this in our parts last week where Saturday was being modeled as more severe than Thursday even a couple days before,but it ended up opposite Nashville disco this morning even mentioned Social Media.It's going wild.Even one person bringing up 2011 that have many,.many followers,you shouldnt even bring up that word,2011, this far out.
  19. jaxjagman
    You guys have had a good severe season.Last year we was off to a great start until the strong blocking happened into the Aluetians and Bearing Sea,this typically pulls the jet max further north sorta speaking and our severe went dormant which the OV got quite active.Gensini has a good paper written about tropical forcing with Nino compared to NINA,Im starting to think thatall this tropical forcing into the WP earlier mainly from Rossby Waves is playing a part,but this at least seems to changing in which seemingly a CCKW and a Rossby Wave into the East Pac upcomign for a change
  20. jaxjagman
    Maybe we can finally get some severe weather and even for that matter,just rain into the Tn Valley finally,its been realitive dead here since the new year,only 3 confirmed tornadoes in TN
  21. jaxjagman
    Slight risk D6 into the Ozarks and portions of the MId South. We seem to be headed towards a strong NINO,down the road.These strong NINO'S can be hit or miss in a season.Back in 2023 in which the RONI could be compared to this year ATM we had 40 tornadoes in TN that year.With a couple outbreaks in late March,early Aprili and early Dec and more or less rogue tornadoes in the summer time.But east TN had the most tornadoes since 2012 that year
  22. jaxjagman
    At the same time you can already notice a pattern change,you can actually see this in East Asia as the MJO goes into the WH into the IO,you see more troughs,we should see a wetter pattern as we get into the 3rd week of April upcoming and more than likely into May
  23. jaxjagman
    That system today was definite a disappointment
  24. jaxjagman
    These happen more often than people think they do and more like every 2-3 years from convective coupled Equatorial Rossby Waves,we even had one in 2022 during mainly a strong NINA
  25. jaxjagman
    Oh it was brutal here trying to drive this morning,i thought something happened on I-65 but it was because of traffic lights being down from debris knocking them out,that was seemingly a nice microburst we saw here in Brentwood
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