jaxjagman

Sure looks like the MJO is getting into the IO/Maritime No doubt about that,,big Artic High moving down from the Upper Plains

Ensembles are going Zonal in the long range,not a warm look but its not cold either,very little QPFS,probably the only hope would be a bowling ball if it could manifest any cold with it I'm starting to wonder if the CFS is more right with the RMM'S,its been showing it going into WP the last several days,now its showing another Kelvin,Rossby into the WP towards the end of the year and crapping out there,we'll see if it keeps showing this.

Congrats bro !!

But you should see a definite warm up past the Mid of Dec,probably not brutal but AN

Ill use what the EPS shows,as heights rise into East China/Koreas this should be a warming in the east,BUT during this time the blocking along the Aluetians get shifted into Siberia,this would cause height falls into East Asia,i really think we will have a cold X-Mas,plus the MJO into which seems TO to be maybe in Africa right now maybe or at least western IO

Be a good case study upcoming in general cause around the 23rd of Nov the SOI dropped,and took out the Nina base state but rose shortly afterwards back towards NINA,so you'd have BN temps towards the middle of Dec but this would be transient because afterwards a few days the SOI would rise again.But the large fall the last few days would tell you it could get rather cold right before X-Mas unlike some of what the models seemingly show,but other teleconnections still play apart

Strong blocking into the Western Aluetians,Bearing Sea being shown would pump up a +PNA but where does the Trough Axis set up,definite cold look towards the Mid month

Not sure the MJO is really stalling out,its during the next few days the signal is getting nothing but constructive interference from Kelvin.Rossby.CFS has been showing this for several days now

Nothing but rain here,gonna be over by the looks pretty soon,back edge is closing in

Keep seeing it being to warm while the clown maps keep saying you'll get IP and SN,looks more cold rain here

Look at the SOI around the 23 of Nov then next week,this is when the models get chaotic with the MJO,but even that today, look how negative the SOI is today,the LaNina base state has been taking out and it is acting more Nino now,seems like the JMA and Euro are going into the COD,then back into the WH afterwards possibly and should probably climb back out the COD,actually the GEFS isnt far behind

lol...glad i'm not the Met at OHX

Per OHX,we are right now today+3.2 AN,Nov isnt a dry month either here and we are below avg 1.76" https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BRO&product=CF6&issuedby=BNA

Euro Mean today,i still think you stick with the JMA right now

Its just my opinion but when the SOI dropped pretty good around the 23rd then rose before Thanksgiving and the dropped again after,this pattern could should more than likely look like this into East Asis into the first week of Dec,it wouldnt effect our weather until right before the mid month of Dec 29 Nov 2025 1011.21 1008.95 -3.95 14.40 8.89 28 Nov 2025 1011.09 1008.70 -3.12 14.81 8.88 27 Nov 2025 1011.74 1008.55 1.97 15.52 9.00 26 Nov 2025 1012.11 1006.05 20.23 16.24 9.20 25 Nov 2025 1009.58 1005.50 7.63 16.34 9.25 24 Nov 2025 1007.56 1004.90 -1.40 17.10 9.38 23 Nov 2025 1009.73 1000.85 38.17 17.97 9.60 22 Nov 2025 1011.59 1003.75 31.56 17.51 9.41

IMHO out in the Pac there is alot of stuff going on with Rossby and Kelvin waves,this is why all the models seem to be struggling with the RMM,even the JMA which has been more tightly bunched is now showing more spread today.You'll more than likely in the next few days see some swings in modeling

Few days ago it was showing a WWB east of the IDL,where did it go..lol

No words needed where the MJO is today

We always here in Middle Tn get hosed by inverted troughs,still remember when we had a Winter Storm Warning that was right before the snow dome talk came in,was suppose to get 3-5" and the models missed the inverted trough and we just got rain instead,because it missed the warm nose

The MJO was fairly chaotic into Maritime/WP this cycle but it was into still the Maritome the first week of Nov,i need to go back and read it more thoroughly for myself,thanks for sharing this,John

Check it out this winter if the MJO gets back to P5,ill look for an archive but i doubt its the same

Probably need to see where the OLR is when it gets into MJO P5,right now we are in P6 with typhoon Koda

More members are jumping in each day around Christmas into early Jan

https://x.com/i/status/1993894442328375446 Check out his winter forecast