jaxjagman

Just shows the PV getting dispaced into the Baffin Sea and Northwesten Passages,its still just fantasy,not sure why i even posted it here,but that could get quite cold into parts of NA depending on what ever teleconnection connect with

The warm SST'S into the GOM are a breeding ground for strong storms right now,really would hate to see cold get penetrated into the region,of course for people into that region time to time you see winter modeled into that region even tho its fantasy range

True,thats a uptick even since the 12z,not much but something is better than nothing..lol

Purty active pattern upcoming,someone should get something out of this mess

In general when you see all that mess into WP,you'd think its gonna warm up in our parts with the MJO signal relative strong and you also see where the MJO RMM'S do funky stuff into P6,past the mid month.MJO is still moving even tho the RMM'S says it isnt,my thinking is after that mess clears,the RMMS will correct itself and show a fast moving signal until they catch up,just destructive interference from Rossby and Kelvin

It dont look as brutal as it has been this time.The ensembles all of them seem to struggle to even get into the 40's,so maybe it wont be that bad.

Can you imagine that with this,of course its fantasy right now

Just for fantasy purposes,its still fun to look at if you are a cold lover,i'm not that person but you can also see a big artic high nosing down towards the Upper Plains the end of the run on the GFS,if you look at the other charts

Probably the best look we've seen all season other than what you guys got in the east got earlier.hopefully something transpires for someone

Hopefully the Euro is wrong,its still showing the MJO in the WP and with some strong blocking into Siberia but its shows a Asian winter time monsoonal flow,rhis would be a waste with the blocking into Siberia it shows in our parts

I'll take a shot of the GFS

You can teleconnect with what the GEFS shows into East Asia,while you have some possible winter in the long range,this should just be transient cold and a warm up afterwards.But this is also with the MJO related sorta speaking So this is gonna crash the good PNA as heights lower into Russia/Mongolia

You're definite seeing a pattern change since we've seen this since fall in the upcoming days

But anyways what it seems to me is the MJO is headed towards the WH.AFRICA and possibly strenghten,patterns like this in a declining Nina even tho its still Nina probably means possibly into Feb you guys in the east could get a good storm depending on other teleconnections,especially into our subforum

Its definite a cold look as we get into next weekend just looking at whats going through East Asia the next few days, for a few days,maybe we can score during this time

Seemingly we are starting to see a pattern change upcoming,the tropical forcing is getting taken out of the WP/MC which is what we've been seeing literally since fall I'm using the GEFS and CFS I.E,take out the tropcial forcing you dont see these troughs going trough East Asia,

Sorry to hear this about your mom also,prayers for you and your fam

I wouldnt trust any model this far out,seen it to many times in our parts when systems get buried here towards the GOM,theres alot that can go wrong.I.E for us in Mid Tn convection down south can cut off the QPFS,there us also other factors as well,positive tilted troughs can possibly kick the moisture out much faster,could go on and on but CMC looks to be the big outlier right now

I mean each day you see the subsurface warming east of the IDL and slowly moving upwards towards the surface,its still NINA,buit you are seeing its demise every day mow

Kinda question a modoki later ,in 2023 many people said the same thing but it never happened,we are actually headed towards the same scenerio but with even more questions if this will might even happen,its still why i like the 2022-2023 analogs winter,the top was around the same time in 2023,the bottom is 2026 latest

Maybe something to watch the next couple days,not all the models still agree with the timing, On this afternoons run the GFS shows the columns basically saturated in the TV,even tho there is some half decent SRH,looks more like some potential hefty rain ATM with the LLJ kicking up to 50 to possibly 70 kts Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-latitude closed low west of Baja CA at 12Z Wednesday should evolve back into an open wave, aided by the development of a large-scale trough becoming established over the West. EC-AIFS and AIGFS remain the preferred guidance for a more probable slower ejection of the low-latitude wave onto the southern Great Plains through Thursday. At least isolated severe potential seems plausible to the east-southeast of a southern High Plains lee cyclone as a modifying warm-moist sector advects north from the western Gulf. But yesterday's NCAR ECENS-based ML guidance remains below 5 percent for Thursday, while the latest GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance have trended lower to only 5 percent peak areas. D6/Friday still appears to have the best relative severe potential, despite the pair of GEFS-based ML guidance trending lower and in areal extent of 5 percent peak probs. Neither of these have any appreciable overlap with the preferred ECENS-based 5 percent areas from NCAR. In any case, an amplified upper trough appears likely to shift from around the Rockies to the Great Plains. Most EC-AIFS ENS members now support central states cyclogenesis. But predictability remains low regarding the spatiotemporal details and amplitude of cyclogenesis, which is likely related to the handling of shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. An area-of-interest for a future 15 percent severe highlight roughly includes the Lower MS to TN Valleys and Deep South.

Ive been thinking something similar to 2022-2023i,mayve more or less the wave lenghts dont match up,but it was a cold Dec Christmas 2022,and much AN into J/F,i dont see that being a bad analog year,least right now unless something changes

Still a NINA anyways,tho since Dec the subsurface has been pushing further east since early Dec east of the IDL

In Mid Tn some of most catastrophic ice storms happen during a more or less in a moderate NINO.I.E 1951 and 1994,we in general in Tn have have two distinct weather patterns east and west of the Cumberland Plateau.In a NINA a ice storm is more common east of the Cumberland,during a NINO its west. We get some of our best winter storms in a NINO than compared to a NINA around Nashville.Though in general it starts out with ZR and/or IP before the columns cool to become all SN Edit:I'm not trying to dispute you if what i said,just adding to climo here,what you said is in general is right around BNA,cold surface temps and WAA is a recipe for ice

Typical +TNH,while we get into wk2 of Jan,+PNA,Trough AXIS in the middle of the country,subtropical ridge builds over Florida and the JET is well north of the Tn Valley,i actually thought we'd have a chance last week to maybe have somewhat a better pattern,but even tho it looks good in East Asia,other teleconnections still play a part in NA,so this time seemingly might not work out well for us