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jaxjagman

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Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. jaxjagman
    We was moving yesterday,moving from Brentwood to Franklin Tn i assume this was yesterday?It wasnt here..lol
  2. jaxjagman
    Thought we might see the Middle of the month get more active into our parts,that seems to be slip sliding away,like the old Paul Simon song would say. Its not like its not been a active year so far.Still seems kinda weird how Wisconsin has had as many tornadoes this year as Alabama and yet Illinois and Miss has give or take almost 40% of all tornadoes this year so far.Oh well,its called weather, right?
  3. jaxjagman
    These westerlies the models have been showing has been countered with strong easterlies,so they have failed to get much past the IDL,maybe its gonna be different this time,probably could be the strongest ERW east of the IDL yet in this event
  4. jaxjagman
    Still seems kinda strange why you dont see the AAM and SOI synced up.Im not saying this wont be a strong NINO,even CPC today shows some pockets today of +8 down into the subsurface.The next WWB seems to be caused by a ERW into the eastern PAC,whicH we havent seen these strong WWB so far
  5. jaxjagman
    We seem to headed towards a WQBO into summer,while the AAM and even SOI is still not coupled quite well,they both look NINA and not NINO ATM
  6. jaxjagman
  7. jaxjagman
    Typically you see the Atmospheric River get going in a strong NINO on the west coast,so you dont see these SST'S out west.Like the NMME'S shows,Its the same into the GOM more or less downstream Out into the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan has alot has to do with The Siberian blocking,so there's no guarantee even that that region will be warm or cold in a strong NINO. https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4416
  8. jaxjagman
    Did you go 55?I was watching my radar last night of the PDS,that had to be at least a EF3,i was kinda busy and couldnt watch the whole show but that was a nice couplet as it was headed towards Bube in that vicinity
  9. jaxjagman
    Yes,im not sure even MV does maint on his sites anymore,but i still use it,so it could be wrong for sure
  10. jaxjagman
    This has been what the JMA has been showing and the folllowing year generally leads back into a NINA the following winter
  11. jaxjagman
    Seemingly or more likely we are headed towards a EQBO,i still think there would be little sample size what this winter will be,but more than likely as some of maps shown above,who knows maybe we will get suprised(ducking)..lol Edit:meant westerly WQBO
  12. jaxjagman
    i did some research a couple days ago how a strong Nino effects our area or region.In general Dec can have some strong tornadoes which surprised me because we dont see this in NINO into winter,in Jan along the Appalachian Mountains has flooding and a freak IP/SN happens in Feb Edit:Other wise its going to be AN with with temps
  13. jaxjagman
    I understand,i'd like to see it also myself..lol
  14. jaxjagman
    Thats kinda what i thought you was talking about,i dont know myself where to find that and even with the hype of a super NINA i would think the skill score of any model would be fairly low,if it even makes it to Super..JMO
  15. jaxjagman
    I think this goes out the furthest dont it?I know JMA goes through Dec,but i'm not sure this is what you are looking for https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-nmme
  16. jaxjagman
    Its been boring here,almost like 2022 where we only had 5 tornadoes the whole year,thats really surprising to me in 2022 it was mainly a moderate NINA the whole year
  17. jaxjagman
    It seems like it could level off for a brief time,the MJO is forecast to stay into the IO for a brief time but this seems like its from the Rossby Wave train into the IO with a Kelvin Wave moving towards the Peruvian coast,you can see this as 1.2 is starting to rise now from downwelling Kelvin Wave.Another big WWB seems to be coming past mid month somewhere along the IDL
  18. jaxjagman
    All good,i guess work does come before play..lol..Good to see you back tho !! Its always good to read your post and Jeff during severe to read yalls thoughts.Looks like you have a shot middle of next week,lots of uncertainty in our parts. In the long range the MJO seems to be getting stuck into the IO by a Rossby Wave plus also you have a Kelvin in the east so the signal is getting destroyed.But if the -AAM can stayed coupled with the MJO,we could get rather active in the long range
  19. jaxjagman
    You talk to Vortex any?I seen where they had a tornado recently around where he lives,he went AWOL on us
  20. jaxjagman
    These models can be real shitty with severe,just like today.Nashville has been telling people for the last few days to not let your guard down today,which the models have been showing with basically wind dmg.We didnt get next to nothing,not even a drop of rain
  21. jaxjagman
    Wouldnt trust any model right now in our parts,GFS even looks much better tonight,east of the Cymberland,late Monday
  22. jaxjagman
    This should even kick off phoons once again,even tho this is 360 hrs out by the GFS from Rossby and plus Kelvin waves.
  23. jaxjagman
    This looks like another Rossby Wave west of the IDL,while some RMMS are hinting the MJO could possibly go back into the WP,the MJO signal seemingly is getting destructive interference from this and is into the WH.I see the CFS is already showing another strong WWB but be carefulll looking at this or any models,that WWB last time wasnt as strong east of the IDL and was more or less picked up at times by the Rossby Wave train.
  24. jaxjagman
    Yes the last few runs the GFS develops a cap in MID TN Into the east,but we'll see soon enough how strong that cap actually is as the, LLJ kicks something like 35-45 kts,that cap might not materialize as shown.Might be picking shit from cherry blossoms other wise with severe..lol On the other hand the last few runs could be a better severe threat even early Wed,maybe nocturnal if the shortwave around the MO/Valley is real what the Euro is showing
  25. jaxjagman
    More like the whole state.TN leads leads the nation with 46% being nocturnal tornadoes
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