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jaxjagman

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  1. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Starting to believe why we see it so warm in the West Pac is being caused by the Kuroshio Current. The Kuroshio is a feeding area for typhoons in which they can strengten SIG. as they track towards East Asia But the Kuroshio forms eddies and in which helps transport warm surface SSTS along it.Seen a couple papers i read in relationship to the ENSO when its a Central based NINO.The Kuroshio isnt as strong but also said more studies needed I believe its around the Kuroshio extension has the strongest currents in the world
  2. jaxjagman
    Im not a MET by all means but some things would seemingly contribute this NINO to how warm the PAC is,this has seemingly never happened before,while this NINO might compare to 1982 it was still that year of a+1.24 PDO in Sept which makes this NINO more rare,good luck with analogs,you might need some
  3. jaxjagman
    Even with a phoon its not helping out with the PDO with those waters,doing nothing but reverse,those waters still should be colder and not getting warmer into the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan
  4. jaxjagman
    We should be headed towards seeing a wet pattern upcoming. CFS shows some strong EWB'S into the IO,this would seemingly be caused by the MJO and could be stucked into the IO for a time,least thats what it looks right right now,we shouldnt be so dry right now regardless
  5. jaxjagman
    Those strong EWB'S the CFS shows into the IO is probably a sign where the MJO is at as we get further into Oct.This would cause a spike in the +IOD from MJO/ DWKW in which the IOD during boreal autumn peaks into fall sorta speaking,in a strong NINO.Only the strong NINO OF 97 We ever saw the +IOD above +1 since 1950 ,yet alone +1.39 that year into NOV
  6. jaxjagman
    Not much rain,but 74 at 1PM is a relief
  7. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    The Phoon headed towrads SE Janpan is doing nothing,its warning the Yellow Sea and even Sea of Japan SSTS,general speaking there really dont seem like there is break down of the PDO any where soon,these waters shouldnt be warm but cold in a +PDO
  8. jaxjagman
    Made it to 101 today,should be a record On September 19, 1954...One of the hottest summers on record continues its strangle-hold on the mid state. Nashvilles high hits 97 degrees
  9. jaxjagman
    Yeah we are seeing a phoon finally going to recurve but seemingly all its doing is warming especially into Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan ,these waters should be cold and not warm,maybe baby steps not very impressive,maybe this could change as the storm moves off of Japan,but still it was nice to see this for a change
  10. jaxjagman
    I guess Nashville is the true meaning of Music City Miracles,how crazy was that with Vandy against NCS,that was one of the ages,kudos to Vamdy,you cant make this stuff up
  11. jaxjagman
    Be kinda careful what the CFS is showing, the last several days its warmed down into the subsurface to around +10C around 55M,while yes 1+2 could mix out with any MJO moving across the WH,i dont think its gonna work out very well what the CfS is showing
  12. jaxjagman
    Maybe we are seeing a pattern change at least for a brief period upcoming,the IO is clearing out and the RRM's for the most part shows the MJO going into the WH next week.Some of the RRMS are going into the IO.This could cause the NINO background to get taking out and we do get a reprieve finally for a short time,believe it when i see it,already see the models showing a phoon headed towards S/Japan in the long range,this hasnt worked out very well in this strong NINIO and the phoon goes into East China and builds a ridge off SE Japan and we warm again
  13. jaxjagman
    Meh,the ridge is already setting in and looks to hold firm through out the next work week ATM
  14. jaxjagman
    Yeah we better get aomething this weekend before the 597 sets in for a few days starting Monday for a few days next week anyways
  15. jaxjagman
    You're definite talking about IMBY,while you had some freak strorm spawn up into the GOM into Feb of 83 the SE in most parts ran 4C AN
  16. jaxjagman
    Just to add in 82-97-15,there has never been a SSWE into winter,left that out which should be noted
  17. jaxjagman
    QBO looks just as brutal,its not even relative closer to its own COD where more planetary waves could seemingly effect the SPV,it looks fairly strong right now into winter
  18. jaxjagman
    To muxh crap already going against this winter,You already have the -PDO at the end of August -1.1 which should be substainally positive right now in a strong NINO and the other is the strong WQBO which should have a chance ATM to be a brick SPV
  19. jaxjagman
    Maybe we are starting to see a pattern change the next several days.The stubborn ridge off Souitheast Asia is semmingly getting shunted East towards the Central Pac per the ensembles,as to where the MJO goes could seemingly just be getting destrucive interference from Rossy/Kelvin closer to the MC,which JMA has been comsistent in showing but the JMA hasnt been doing a spectacular job as of late
  20. jaxjagman
    We dont do very well in MId Tn with a strong NINO,Just as well you mention the QBO,which could lead into a strong SPV.Maybe this winter has its own analogs,just as well you mention the solar and no active volcanoes to add to that as well,meh
  21. jaxjagman
    We certainly can use some rain here,back into a abnormal drought and the yard is starting to get patches
  22. jaxjagman
    Never has there been a -PDO AT the end of August in a strong NinoWhile analogs if you find one in which i doubt you will at least ATM look like 1982 not 1997 and especially 2015.
  23. jaxjagman
    Really unigue pattern we are in,weve never seen the PDO negative after August in a strong NINO so like @Jeff said above the PDO is out of whack.Just like imto 1982 the solar is just as well on the decline,but regardless,this could end up like 1982 and NINA domt really develop until the fall,winter possibly next year,unlike 1997 or 2015,but i still discount 2015 myself because that NINO started in 2014 and the Walker Circulation broke down into summer and made this a west/ central based NINO,unlike this year
  24. jaxjagman
    WTF does that have to do with South America?
  25. jaxjagman
    I still dont understand why people bring up analogs of the 2015 strong NINO.That was a early onset of NINO IN 2014 and during into 2015 seemingly the Walker Circulation got broke down and you saw stronger EWB'S off South America which caused this to be a West/Central based NINO,unlike this year or 82-97,it really has no resemblence
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