jaxjagman

We moved from Brentwood to Franklin,we was surrounded by trees in Brentwood but we have a open skyline here,quite nice

Definite rotation around Vanleer

Finally getting some decent rain' Flash Flood Warning TNC037-149-187-200230- /O.NEW.KOHX.FF.W.0031.260720T0030Z-260720T0230Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Nashville TN 730 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Southeastern Davidson County in middle Tennessee... Northwestern Rutherford County in middle Tennessee... Northeastern Williamson County in middle Tennessee... * Until 930 PM CDT. * At 730 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

Best storm in weeks is coming though,even knocked our power off brieftly

Most of the rain upcoming seems like a boundary slipping down,who know who gets the rain but even so the MJO into the WH/EP isnt a rather dry solution,more unsettled in days ahead

Last few days a bulleye has shown of +9C,while +8C is slowly expanding in the east,seemingly this is being caused by the MJO moving into the region along with a DWKW. We get into August the CFS shows another which could be the strongest yet WWB along the IDL,but thats to far out to trust ATM

How are yall even in a drought..lol We are having the same luck here like @ Dwagner is going through,i dont think we've gotten a inch the last 30 days while some parts are doing exceptional well.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/rare-atlantic-nina-joins-super-el-nino-atmospheric-shield-hurricane-season-winter-united-states-canada-fa/

Heres that article recently posted https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/rare-atlantic-nina-joins-super-el-nino-atmospheric-shield-hurricane-season-winter-united-states-canada-fa/

Thats not going to ever happen with the EWB off SA.These winds are killing KW from getting that far east and the MJO should go back into the WP,if anything you might see an expansion from downwelling but 10-12/Not going to happen

Good for you guys in the east,this should help out with the drought anyways,. Ninos are always generally wet in Mid TN.in summer,kinda be surprised if anyone in TN has any drought as we head into fall

Least yall are getting something,boundary around Mid Tn with a weak surface low seemingly

DWKW the next couple weeks could possibly expand or even rise those SST anoms from +8C IN the east

We had a -PDO in the strong NINO of 57-58,we just had some good North Atlantic blocking,it was quite cold in the TnValley,maybe Global warming is a player now which seems possible,but that was quite unusual when you see waterways in Mid Tn freeze up in J/F,it that happens agin who knows

Actually if you go back to 57-58 it was quite cold after Dec,while NOV like you mentioned was BN,Dec was more severe,but J/F was really cold,if that happens again who know,plus March of 1958 had the blizzard in the east

57-58 was quite unique.Nashville recorded the 6th lowest BP reading on record in Feb.Also into April had its 2nd strongest wind readings.There was the big blizzard in March in the east that dumped 2-3 feet along Conte.But it was so cold here that winter JAN/FEB it froze the waterways in MID TN.Plus we had the typical severe outbreak in Dec 57,with strong NINOS

Fairly tranquil here today.OFB was down into southern parts where at least they had some severe thunderstorms earlier,least you guys in the east are getting some rain

Figured id bring the ENSO thread back up after hibernation for 2 years,The DMI the last couple weeks has been getting stronger,it should mainly stay this way it is until late fall when it peaks in a more or less strong NINO, The MJO as we head towards the next several days seemingly is getting nothing but destructive interference from a Kelvin Wave,should seemingly go back into the WP shortly after but it could also warm the east up again from a downwelling Kelvin Wave. The east has some subsurface temps around 100W OF 8C,these temps dont dont peak out until fall into winter,NINO of 1982-83 had the highest temp anoms in the subsurface,so i guess it has a chance to surpass that,who knows right now

Seems like right now 82-83 would be a focal point and not 97-98,when looking at analogs.97-98 had one of the 3 stronest DMI'S on record the last half centurry.JMA isnt showing this with it and its esembles right now,just one.But who know,DMI peaks into fall,maybe that one will be right..lol

Its not like we seen last month,in the upcoming weeks into July the WWB is getting combatted with EWB.Even the EPS shows this to some extent.But this still could have destructive interference with the MJO signal with RW AND KW,regradless the chances of MJO moving out of the WP seems real to me,its not going to happen for awhile

You for sure could be right.But it seems like the MJO is going to get destrucive interference from this Roosby Wave and this KW in the upcoming days epecially when the EWB ancounters into the 2nd week of huly seemingly,As this RW moves west it seems very possible the MJO signal will strengten just east of the IDL,this is why you see SOME RMMS killing the MJO signal,towards the COD from the WP,seems possible the MJO stays into the WP longer and possibly stronger

The Rossby Wave is going kick off a strong Phoon easpcially if the Euro were to be right on the 0Z run today in the upcoming days,that would potentially be catastrophic if it were to take that route for Southern Japan as it heads into the Sea of Japan,tho this far out we dont know what troughs will even steer it

Models have been shitty,the MCS is going into the OV riding the boundary which looks to stationary,surprised they kept the 5% last update

New Years eve was a historic ice storm in West and Cen Tn,but that was a nuetral ENSO i believe ,also75-76 was basically NINA as well,just saying

...Mid-South/Tennessee/southern Kentucky to North Carolina... Multiple MCVs, including across far south-central Missouri and southeast Kansas at midday, will influence the region as they progress east-southward generally toward Kentucky and Tennessee. Related flow enhancement is evident in regional WSR-88d VWP data, and particularly in the 12z Lamont, OK observed sounding (40+ kt 4-9km AGL). See Mesoscale Discussion 1346 for additional short-term details. These MCVs will influence and semi-focus thunderstorm development within a moist and increasingly unstable boundary layer from the southeast Missouri/northeast Arkansas border vicinity into Kentucky and Tennessee. This includes the possibility of some supercells and well-organized clusters in the presence of 35-40 kt effective shear. Pockets of wind damage will be the most common risk, but some tornado potential will exist as well. Additional severe storms capable of wind damage are also expected farther eastward into the Carolinas this afternoon through around mid-evening.