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jaxjagman

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Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. jaxjagman
    Sorry to hear about yoru mom ,my prayers go out to you and your family
  2. jaxjagman
    You could be right.Hardeman Co in TN had had a EF4 right before Christmas 2015, which tracked from MS,so regardless you can never say never.But in still 2015 was a well pronounced Central based NINO compared to this year,most of the severe should be further towards the Gulf states and not into our region this winter
  3. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    PDO rose to -0.74 for Sept,i thought for sure it wouldnt budge much as much as the oceans has been warming lately
  4. jaxjagman
    Do you never not get rain?..lol.
  5. jaxjagman
    When you have all these polar currents in East Asia breeding on warmth,youd want to see some of these oceans colder and not warmer.it doesnt mix out very well
  6. jaxjagman
    Yes some impressive warmings going on right now from the Yelllow Sea,Sea of Japan,Sea of Okhotsk and for matter Bearing Sea,this has effects from the polar cold stream vs the warm Stream and mixes out,it dont seem to matter ATM,even probably wont matter with even a typhoon recurving of of Japan,its not going to effect the PDO
  7. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    1+2 continues to break records,pretty impressive
  8. jaxjagman
    Least we have a re-curving phoon the next couple days with a trough going through East Asia,we should possibly see temps drop into the 40's around mid month LOWS,after that not very exciting seeing another seemingly strong WWB upcoming
  9. jaxjagman
    Been a rough month here,broke the record for the driest Sept,notta thing here,tied the record daily highs with 2019...93.2F Made a run at overall temp record,1925 avg, was 81.5,this Sept was 81.1
  10. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Starting to believe why we see it so warm in the West Pac is being caused by the Kuroshio Current. The Kuroshio is a feeding area for typhoons in which they can strengten SIG. as they track towards East Asia But the Kuroshio forms eddies and in which helps transport warm surface SSTS along it.Seen a couple papers i read in relationship to the ENSO when its a Central based NINO.The Kuroshio isnt as strong but also said more studies needed I believe its around the Kuroshio extension has the strongest currents in the world
  11. jaxjagman
    We should be headed towards seeing a wet pattern upcoming. CFS shows some strong EWB'S into the IO,this would seemingly be caused by the MJO and could be stucked into the IO for a time,least thats what it looks right right now,we shouldnt be so dry right now regardless
  12. jaxjagman
    Those strong EWB'S the CFS shows into the IO is probably a sign where the MJO is at as we get further into Oct.This would cause a spike in the +IOD from MJO/ DWKW in which the IOD during boreal autumn peaks into fall sorta speaking,in a strong NINO.Only the strong NINO OF 97 We ever saw the +IOD above +1 since 1950 ,yet alone +1.39 that year into NOV
  13. jaxjagman
    Not much rain,but 74 at 1PM is a relief
  14. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    The Phoon headed towrads SE Janpan is doing nothing,its warning the Yellow Sea and even Sea of Japan SSTS,general speaking there really dont seem like there is break down of the PDO any where soon,these waters shouldnt be warm but cold in a +PDO
  15. jaxjagman
    Made it to 101 today,should be a record On September 19, 1954...One of the hottest summers on record continues its strangle-hold on the mid state. Nashvilles high hits 97 degrees
  16. jaxjagman
    Yeah we are seeing a phoon finally going to recurve but seemingly all its doing is warming especially into Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan ,these waters should be cold and not warm,maybe baby steps not very impressive,maybe this could change as the storm moves off of Japan,but still it was nice to see this for a change
  17. jaxjagman
    I guess Nashville is the true meaning of Music City Miracles,how crazy was that with Vandy against NCS,that was one of the ages,kudos to Vamdy,you cant make this stuff up
  18. jaxjagman
    Be kinda careful what the CFS is showing, the last several days its warmed down into the subsurface to around +10C around 55M,while yes 1+2 could mix out with any MJO moving across the WH,i dont think its gonna work out very well what the CfS is showing
  19. jaxjagman
    Maybe we are seeing a pattern change at least for a brief period upcoming,the IO is clearing out and the RRM's for the most part shows the MJO going into the WH next week.Some of the RRMS are going into the IO.This could cause the NINO background to get taking out and we do get a reprieve finally for a short time,believe it when i see it,already see the models showing a phoon headed towards S/Japan in the long range,this hasnt worked out very well in this strong NINIO and the phoon goes into East China and builds a ridge off SE Japan and we warm again
  20. jaxjagman
    Meh,the ridge is already setting in and looks to hold firm through out the next work week ATM
  21. jaxjagman
    Yeah we better get aomething this weekend before the 597 sets in for a few days starting Monday for a few days next week anyways
  22. jaxjagman
    You're definite talking about IMBY,while you had some freak strorm spawn up into the GOM into Feb of 83 the SE in most parts ran 4C AN
  23. jaxjagman
    Just to add in 82-97-15,there has never been a SSWE into winter,left that out which should be noted
  24. jaxjagman
    QBO looks just as brutal,its not even relative closer to its own COD where more planetary waves could seemingly effect the SPV,it looks fairly strong right now into winter
  25. jaxjagman
    To muxh crap already going against this winter,You already have the -PDO at the end of August -1.1 which should be substainally positive right now in a strong NINO and the other is the strong WQBO which should have a chance ATM to be a brick SPV
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