jaxjagman

Not trying to discount you,but when you have decent warm nose advecion with a STJ 30-50 kts into Tn,it really seems impossible to get snow into Tn,it really dont matter what side of the mountain you look at,this is a weak LP it forms where ever it forms,even the WAA looks worse into East Tn

Maybe your right,but even the NAM is showing a inverted trough with LP into the lower OV with the STJ around 30-40 kts,good luck with this for snow in Tn,sorry no model shows this will happen

Thats a inverted trough,its always the worse Nightmare into our forum

Looks to warm to me,if you really looks at the isobars this is an inverted trough and warm nose,you can then look at what the 850 shows,its definite a warm nose

In the long range i'd stick with what the JMA is showing with the MJO.The CFS has some bias with the tropical convection into the WP/MC from Rossby and Kelvin Waves,you can clearly see this once again,this causes contructive/destructive interference with the MJO signal

We got a unexpected dusting this morning

Just look at the red line,the GOM has been one of the warmest since the 1980's

Dont agree with this.This is more or less some hybrid weather pattern this winter,plus while it can happen the atmospheric river into the west is more Nino than NINA,you cant possibly say the west has been dry this winter,California is over 300% in some parts of abnormal QPFS

SSTS in the modern day era since summer has been well AN since summer,still be interesting to see what happens in the upcoming days

This map should have a better visualzation today

Possibly,its still warm into the GOM,be interesting to see how it cools the next few days

Could be,but if this was what the MJO showed in March of 2021, i'd be getting excited..lol

Made me go back and look at some analogs into 2021

Yeah but there top analog was1-25-2021 today,this was the Fultondale.Al EF3,this makes no sense to me

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/lake-erie-january-more-ice-23-years-9.7067884

Gonna be a Valentines Sweetheart for someone and the Kiss of Death for someone.Hard to figure this one out but its still a couple weeks out.GEFS shows the NAO/PNA possibly crapping out FOR US,but we are talking two weeks away/JMA has the MJO moving through P1-2,thats typically a cold look in J/F/M

I'm ready for severe now https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/dataviewer/?hzrd=tor&sect=conus&intv=day&pd=&thrs=0

Light snow shower,it wont last much longer it seems ATM

Good luck to ya'll in the East.

We got all our stuff back yesterday afternoon,then last night the internet crashed about 830,was back on this morning. Charged our phones in the car,using the phone at all was a pain in the ass,most of the time it was one bar if you got lucky with no wi-fi. Our area looks like a tornado hit with no house damage unless you had a tree fall on it

We lost power for a bit,Wi-Fi is down with Comcast’s no tv getting on the the net is sketchy

Back to ZR again,CF passed through Mid Tn back down to 31 now

esoscale Discussion 0049 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Areas affected...Northern Louisiana into eastern Arkansas...northwest Mississippi...and far western Tennessee Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 250146Z - 250645Z SUMMARY...Another round of freezing rain and sleet is expected to spread out of northern Louisiana into eastern Arkansas and northwest Mississippi. Freezing rain rates upwards of 0.05 inch/hour appear likely for some locations. DISCUSSION...Recent radar mosaics show a developing plume of precipitation across central to northern LA - likely associated with strengthening warm advection between 925-850 mb. Over the next several hours, an uptick in low-level winds should promote further augmentation of isentropic and frontogenetical ascent across the lower MS River Valley. Regional 00z RAOBs from SHV and LZK sampled a stout (4-12 C) warm layer between 850-700 mb that will melt hydrometeors as precipitation spreads north/northeast. Sub-freezing surface temperatures will promote some degree of re-freezing near the surface, though locations with temperatures at or near/below 15 F will likely be sufficiently cold (and have a sufficiently deep sub-freezing layer) to promote sleet as the predominant precipitation type. Warmer locations will likely observe freezing rain (with freezing rain rates up to 0.05 inch/hour) with periods of sleet possible. Based on latest surface observations, freezing rain appears most probable across southeast AR into northwest MS with sleet more likely for locations further north into east-central AR and far western TN.