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jaxjagman

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Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. jaxjagman
    Be kinda careful what the CFS is showing, the last several days its warmed down into the subsurface to around +10C around 55M,while yes 1+2 could mix out with any MJO moving across the WH,i dont think its gonna work out very well what the CfS is showing
  2. jaxjagman
    Maybe we are seeing a pattern change at least for a brief period upcoming,the IO is clearing out and the RRM's for the most part shows the MJO going into the WH next week.Some of the RRMS are going into the IO.This could cause the NINO background to get taking out and we do get a reprieve finally for a short time,believe it when i see it,already see the models showing a phoon headed towards S/Japan in the long range,this hasnt worked out very well in this strong NINIO and the phoon goes into East China and builds a ridge off SE Japan and we warm again
  3. jaxjagman
    Meh,the ridge is already setting in and looks to hold firm through out the next work week ATM
  4. jaxjagman
    Yeah we better get aomething this weekend before the 597 sets in for a few days starting Monday for a few days next week anyways
  5. jaxjagman
    You're definite talking about IMBY,while you had some freak strorm spawn up into the GOM into Feb of 83 the SE in most parts ran 4C AN
  6. jaxjagman
    Just to add in 82-97-15,there has never been a SSWE into winter,left that out which should be noted
  7. jaxjagman
    QBO looks just as brutal,its not even relative closer to its own COD where more planetary waves could seemingly effect the SPV,it looks fairly strong right now into winter
  8. jaxjagman
    To muxh crap already going against this winter,You already have the -PDO at the end of August -1.1 which should be substainally positive right now in a strong NINO and the other is the strong WQBO which should have a chance ATM to be a brick SPV
  9. jaxjagman
    Maybe we are starting to see a pattern change the next several days.The stubborn ridge off Souitheast Asia is semmingly getting shunted East towards the Central Pac per the ensembles,as to where the MJO goes could seemingly just be getting destrucive interference from Rossy/Kelvin closer to the MC,which JMA has been comsistent in showing but the JMA hasnt been doing a spectacular job as of late
  10. jaxjagman
    We dont do very well in MId Tn with a strong NINO,Just as well you mention the QBO,which could lead into a strong SPV.Maybe this winter has its own analogs,just as well you mention the solar and no active volcanoes to add to that as well,meh
  11. jaxjagman
    We certainly can use some rain here,back into a abnormal drought and the yard is starting to get patches
  12. jaxjagman
    Never has there been a -PDO AT the end of August in a strong NinoWhile analogs if you find one in which i doubt you will at least ATM look like 1982 not 1997 and especially 2015.
  13. jaxjagman
    Really unigue pattern we are in,weve never seen the PDO negative after August in a strong NINO so like @Jeff said above the PDO is out of whack.Just like imto 1982 the solar is just as well on the decline,but regardless,this could end up like 1982 and NINA domt really develop until the fall,winter possibly next year,unlike 1997 or 2015,but i still discount 2015 myself because that NINO started in 2014 and the Walker Circulation broke down into summer and made this a west/ central based NINO,unlike this year
  14. jaxjagman
    WTF does that have to do with South America?
  15. jaxjagman
    I still dont understand why people bring up analogs of the 2015 strong NINO.That was a early onset of NINO IN 2014 and during into 2015 seemingly the Walker Circulation got broke down and you saw stronger EWB'S off South America which caused this to be a West/Central based NINO,unlike this year or 82-97,it really has no resemblence
  16. jaxjagman
    The warmth the past couple weeks in 1.2 tops the 82-97,pretty impressive either way
  17. jaxjagman
    We've here in MId have had some warm Septs,but i dont think its comparable to 1925,in modern day ERA this year might probably top out any year.But 1925 Nashville we hit triple digits 7 days in a row.Birmingham hit trips 14 staraight days in row !!That's just insane !!
  18. jaxjagman
    Its still a unique NINO and will probably carry its own anologs into winter.The DMI or Indian ocean diphole if you wanna call it doesnt even rank this around a top ten event per JMA Mean while a couple its ensemble members seems to join camp show now this might be the strongest ever,duuno This seemingly shows no break down into the Walker Circulation with the trades coming off Africa and not South America,in which the few few days should probably kick off the Sahara dust. Gernerally the IOD falls into fall just as well does the PDO but the PDO can fluctuate into winter
  19. jaxjagman
    More than likely this was because of LaLa when it hit Hawaii
  20. jaxjagman
    its 15 days out but still wild to look at if its true,that ridge has been there most of the summer off southeast Japan,it hasnt allowed any typhoons to go other than in East China,youd like to see this get displaced ,broke down or something,everytime its been showing this it builds back up im a couple days
  21. jaxjagman
    We had a -PDO back into 1972 into the June,and in August was one of the strongest solar storms on record.The CME reached earth in 14+ hours,that must have been one impressive storm to blow sea mines in the VietNam War,if that is true,but that must have been a quite an impressive light show either way
  22. jaxjagman
    Yeah until that pesky ridge off SoithEastern Japan breaks down it shouldnt happen.Everytime you see long range models trying to show this in the long range is from troughs to fast or just not strong enough to do it to some extent and even when its gets broke down or shunted east it build back in the same parts in days
  23. jaxjagman
    Guess the good news is its not July,August otherwise a ridge is setiing in the next couple days and probably should be a fixture the next several days
  24. jaxjagman
    NINO looks still strong to me,you even see another strong WWB into Sept with hardly any EWB,start seeing EWB around South America should be one of the first signs the Walker Circulation is breaking down,until then
  25. jaxjagman
    That not true to some extent,while the 82-83 strong NINO showed a -PDO into srping it went positive into summer.That 82-83 winter was quite uniques alone which had the help of a EQBO and not a WQBO this year
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