jaxjagman

If you ask me this pattern we are fixing to get looks more severe in early Dec,You got heights rising before t-giving into the Sea of Okhotsk,with a trough in East Asia and rising heights into Mongolia

East Asia gives you some insight of the pattern ahead,yes its never gonna be right because we have different teleconnections,sorta speaking.But honesltly 1,E,you see a ridge building into Mongolia into maybe even Russia,nothing but a trough in a few days as we head towards T-GIVING

In case you dont have this you can look at Planetary and Equatorial Waves using the Euro Modes,ill shut up now

GEFS looks more Euro now with any SSW,you can see it here

Id agree with what Jeff said up above .We seem to be seeing the the SSW underway with the sharp rise in temps into the stratosphere but even so ,the cold seems to be getting pushed back seemingly each day.The JMA right now shows a strong MJO signal in the WP into the first of Dec,while this isnt bad it still should have reflection to more or less a SER,just transient cold shots.Might not be a bad thing if you want a cold Christmas or even possibly beyond that for a couple weeks anyways

Cool,he finally got this running again

LOL Looks like the quite a few members jumped the train today...lol

Thinking the same thing @ Carver.Like Jeff metioned a week or two ago,its gonna take a couple CF's to beat down the SER,before it can get really cold,otherwise its just gonna be transient cool down i agree also the Euro suites struggle with systems out west,more than likely today with that trough out west.GEFS dont show much change today,not perfect but not as extreme as the EPS

See what it shows this afternoon,shouild update in about a hr and a half

EPS seems to be having a rough time to have such volatile swings

The map he showed was the OZ,i assume early this morning,mine was yesterday afternoon,so it must have changed between

I seen that this morning,

Euro backed off from any SSW upcoming with not much of any wind reversal to what its been showing.JMA has the temps around -65C which is around what the Euro shows last update,Euro only shows the temps will get close to -60C in 10 days,so right now no SSW just some weakening,least not right now

BOM has the reconstructed MJO back to 1975 here,i know you look at analogs all the time maybe that can help out some https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Monitoring

I got cut off for a few min,kinda busy ATM,but by those pics seemingly shows into the 2nd week of Dec into the WP just constructive interference from Rossbly.Kelvin which looks like the MJO is into the Maritime/WP,but its not.Its still in the WH and getting into the IO towards the end of the month of Dec,

Just to edit the pic above ill post it here,wasnt aware i cut the dates out

Typically Dec in Mid/Tn is the wettest month of the year,its even wetter in West Tn into the Ozarks. Take these maps with a grain of this far out,probably from Rossby,Kelvin Waves,,but at least the Euro is showing something similar,but once again a grain of salt this far out

Our landscapers came and did our lawn yesterday,you couldnt tell today,we had just some wind gust probably just around 15-20mph,but it was raining leaves,shitty foilage year here

Euro ensembles seems to being getting more support each day it will finally get out of P6,while the MEAN is faster and little support but P7 isnt horrible Edit:You just need to be patient until then,its not even Met Winter yet

The SOI took a big rise recently.Seems like we'd be seeing some sort of strong CF, maybe the end of the month,Nov first of Dec along with the MJO possibly getting out of the unfavorable WP and possibly WH,tho the Euro Mean dont have alot of support.The SSWE today the Euro backed off of any SSWE.But the Euro does have some support it should turn colder into the first week of Dec with the ensembles.Just need the MJO to stay active,hate a warm Christmas,you always as we get into winter in out parts want to see troughs into East China into the Sea of Japan,thats a cold look as long as the NAO cooperates

Should have said we'll know more by next week.But some of social media especially on X make it sound like the apocalypse is coming.We're gonna fall -800C below normal,snow drifts as tall as the empire state building,we're all gonna die.Like there hasnt been a SSWE before.

You have to have warming with the wind reversal to be a major SSWE,right now it just seems to be a minor,but thats to early to tell,Euro only shows the wind reversal lasting just a couple days.We'll find out soon enough,next week.

Where is this,cool pic anyways?Looks so surreal,awesome

Prior the turkey day it looks to be a battle between AI/GFS/Euro VS the ensembles In a real mans world you'd stick with the ensembles this far out.Guess we'll see who caves in the upcoming days.But i thought my self there would be a trough in the East before turkey day

My thinking is later on there will be a phoon headed towards China the next couple days,this will pump up the heights from the Yellow Sea into Japan along with the MJO headed into the WP,so that should be height rises towards Mid Nove for a few days,guess the good news right now is the MJO could possibly go into the COD,but anyways what the EPS seems to be showing today is a trough going thru East Asia round the 15th,so we'd probably be seeing a CF right before thanksgiving and back to BN temps at least for a bit..JMO