Jump to content

jaxjagman

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    9,259

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. jaxjagman
    You got your freeze @John..lol.We was 4 degrees BN yesterday,would rather see some rain right now,looks like thats not going to work out very well the next 7-days
  2. jaxjagman
    Do agree,you might alrady be seeing this in the extened period,but right now a phoon going into East Asia is going to cause a Upper Level Ridge to build into the Sea of Japan,then days after into the plains and NE,Emembles show this very well
  3. jaxjagman
    Reckon its good news only being Oct,but you really hate to see Phoons going to East China,and not recurving,never works out very well
  4. jaxjagman
    Typhoon going into East China isnt really what you'd like to see.Sea of Japan is already warm,it will probably warm .You have different currents run through East Asia,the Thusima current runs though the Strait of Japan,the Kuroshio current as mentioned above,but just as muxh is the cold polar Oyashio current which runs from the Bearing Sea,this current generally mixes out along the Kurrishio extension,its simply not doing it,its not that cold
  5. jaxjagman
    Euro has been fairly consistent the last several day of strenghtening the MJO into the IO,CFS is going into the Maritime but seemingly could just be interference via Rossby Wave,hard to go against the Euro IMO as consistent its been the last several days
  6. jaxjagman
    Ha,cold front is in East Tn,we dropped into the 50'S already before 3PM,would have liked to see some rain but will take the cooler temps
  7. jaxjagman
    Do agree,looks nothing like 1997 respective to today
  8. jaxjagman
    Cold front should pass through today.We broke record highs this week,.each day from Monday-Thursday each day,not to often you see that Up into next week is a EWB into the IO with a Kelvin Wave,MJO should go into the Eastern IO or phase 3 regardless of what the RRMS seemingly is showing for several days,so it still should be moving along. Next weekend a strong typhoon is seemingly headed towards East China,this will build up the ridge once again off SE Japan,shades of summer once again maybe in the long range to an extent. Think the Euro is doing a good job sorta with the MJO,so i'm riding it myself right now,but its going to murky as it heads towards the COD again seemingly
  9. jaxjagman
    Definite dont see the PDO flipping anytime soon. Yellow Sea and especially Sea of Japan into the Western Pac should be cooling not warming.These more polar currents are getting overwhelmed by the warm currents,it should be getting mixed out but its really not
  10. jaxjagman
    Woke up around 230 this morning and looked at RAOBS and the sytem closed back up somewhere around the Cumberland so we at least had some light rain,the dry air still tho was brutal last evening,oh well,have to cut my grass now next week..lol
  11. jaxjagman
    Still wanted to see more rain,the system seemed to open up much sooner than what was modeled,the dry air getting funneled at every level has wrecked this system,disappointing
  12. jaxjagman
    Not very impressed,the dry air getting funneled into this storm, much more than what the models have been showing,Southern MID Tn did quite well tho,was hoping for more rain here
  13. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Least we are seeing some changes These EWB'S into the IO with the active MJO into the the WH and AFRICA,should probably stall the MJO signal into the IO by the Bjerknes effect,this should help take out the NINO background out for a a short time anyways,but it looks much cooler still in our parts as we head towards the mid month
  14. jaxjagman
    Still think we cool down around the mid-month,seemingly we are just fiximg to get sandwiched from the tropics.JMA and Euro are close to be on the same page in the extended period with the MJO,least we should get a break for a few days
  15. jaxjagman
    Least we are starting to see the the PDO changing for that matter as well so is the IOD,IOD should be warmer in a strong NINO
  16. jaxjagman
    Sorry to hear about yoru mom ,my prayers go out to you and your family
  17. jaxjagman
    You could be right.Hardeman Co in TN had had a EF4 right before Christmas 2015, which tracked from MS,so regardless you can never say never.But in still 2015 was a well pronounced Central based NINO compared to this year,most of the severe should be further towards the Gulf states and not into our region this winter
  18. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    PDO rose to -0.74 for Sept,i thought for sure it wouldnt budge much as much as the oceans has been warming lately
  19. jaxjagman
    Do you never not get rain?..lol.
  20. jaxjagman
    When you have all these polar currents in East Asia breeding on warmth,youd want to see some of these oceans colder and not warmer.it doesnt mix out very well
  21. jaxjagman
    Yes some impressive warmings going on right now from the Yelllow Sea,Sea of Japan,Sea of Okhotsk and for matter Bearing Sea,this has effects from the polar cold stream vs the warm Stream and mixes out,it dont seem to matter ATM,even probably wont matter with even a typhoon recurving of of Japan,its not going to effect the PDO
  22. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    1+2 continues to break records,pretty impressive
  23. jaxjagman
    Least we have a re-curving phoon the next couple days with a trough going through East Asia,we should possibly see temps drop into the 40's around mid month LOWS,after that not very exciting seeing another seemingly strong WWB upcoming
  24. jaxjagman
    Been a rough month here,broke the record for the driest Sept,notta thing here,tied the record daily highs with 2019...93.2F Made a run at overall temp record,1925 avg, was 81.5,this Sept was 81.1
  25. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Starting to believe why we see it so warm in the West Pac is being caused by the Kuroshio Current. The Kuroshio is a feeding area for typhoons in which they can strengten SIG. as they track towards East Asia But the Kuroshio forms eddies and in which helps transport warm surface SSTS along it.Seen a couple papers i read in relationship to the ENSO when its a Central based NINO.The Kuroshio isnt as strong but also said more studies needed I believe its around the Kuroshio extension has the strongest currents in the world
×
×
  • Create New...