jaxjagman

Not a big of cap in the warm sector Sunday but still there,some shortwave troughs into West and MID Tn,if that inversion isnt as strong there could be some kicker that pop up ahead of the line,see what the mesoscale models show the upcoming runs

Sorry to hear this,my prayers are with you bro

Dont think it was severe,right after the line passed the warning was cancelled further east of us

We got our severe thunderstorm watch at 210 and it was stamped at 220,something was off

Maybe some strong storms next week,tornado threat seems to be low ATM,if the GFS is right there could be some strong storms into Mid South/Mid Tn and Alabama during the nocturnal hours Tuesday morning.main show should be Wed but even that it seems like clouds set in before hand,not very exciting to me ATM,see what the models show tomorrow and Tuesday. We should go into a lull for maybe several days after Wed as the MJO is headed into the WH Mid month,but some uncertainty as where it goes afterwards ATM.CFS the last few days had been showing the tropical forcing going back into the WP not even without a Rossby Wave,thats not gonna happen and it backed off today,not sure what it is but the CFS has this big bias for whatever reason into the WP Nina seems like its on life support now,models have been showing a EWB into the IO towards the end of THE month,that should help take the NINA background out,say hello to NINO

The MJO seemingly is gonna be stuck into the WP which could be for much of March from the Rossby Wave Train,this should help NINA stay alive for the next few weeks anyways

That would be cool,but it might be kinda cloudy in TN.Weather always tries and find us in TN to screw us..lol

Dont think right now you can possibly pick which RMM is gonna be wrong or right,Its gonna flake out because of a Rossby Wave into wk2 of March,so it could be just getting destructive interference and be further along than you think it might be,or then again,it might not

Could be,but May into June the Jet goes north of us,dont mean you cant get severe but the odds are against it,tornado threat should seemingly shift into the OV plus the plains

Thats wild,i read from Brownsville this was the warmest day in the US history ever from D-F on records

I agree ,should we .If we get a SSWE,which seems possible in this time of season after MET spring this should cause the Jet to shift south.The wave lenghts arent as long with a SSWE than compared to actual winter time with a SSWE sorta speaking,so it all general happens 1-2 weeks later after a SSWE But this has all the potential to be a quite active period upcoming.JMHO

Yeah they said they was changing it i think in Jan but they didnt show the intensity levels,thanks for posting this

Is this just some freak pattern like last year?The RONI since summer has been quite similar with a moderate NINA,both years it was basically a BN temp Jan.Last year we a had a Major SSWE March 8.,this year its around the same time,if its a Major Sure the wave lenghts are different,we had severe Mid March and a tornado outbreak the end of March The first pic of the tropical forcing is last year,2nd is what the CFS is showing today

Seriously the MJO is going into the WP like it or nor

seems like the NJO is getting destructive interference

Probably gonna be stuck into the WP like the GEFS shows until that Rossby Wave moves soon,which wont seemingly should happen soon

That was a awesome day going to SWAD with my daughter today.Shes all into to severe now.Shes doing her major in computer science at Lipscomb right now but wants to in the Met field now.

We always get screwed when blocking gets stronger along the Aleutian into the Bearing Sea.Severe with the Jet goes up into the OV. Models did a fairly good job the moisture influx sorta speaking,we didnt have nothing much of any kicker but instability seemingly was still there than more advertised.Guess we say NEXT

The next few days there is a Rossby Wave thats going pass west of the IDL,some of these RMMS especially the JMA albeit its still in the COD are or seemingly getting destructive interfernce from this

I typically use the Koreas and the Yellow Sea in our parts.You wanna see deeper troughs into this part for us While also using East Asia doesnt never correlate 1:1,you have other teleconnections to look at in North America,but it still should give you a rough idea. While you see a trough here into Japan,this is more than likely be a trough in the East.I wouldnt be surprised to see this slow down in future runs.The GAAM looks fairly negative right now,this should be a slower pattern just because the earths rotation slows down sorta speaking,its opposite with a positive GAAM

Its still a messed up look.The CFS is showing the tropical forcing into the WP into IO which is from Rossby and Kelvin Waves,so its more than likely gonna cause destructive interference with the MJO signal,which will more than likely go into the COD

I agree with the NAO and i DO agree with the wave lenghts,but when you see a Rex Block into where i mentioned above this typically is a +PNA,it would take strong -NAO to counter that.It's one reason why last spring our severe season went to crap after a early start,this can cause the Jet Max to shit further north into spring,its one of the reasons with our severe shifted into the OV

Looks severe towards the end of the month.Looks more like a East Asia winter monsoonal trough,Upper Level LOW into Russia/Mongolia and THE PIG like Flash calls it(Rex Block)in the Aleutians/Bearing Sea Euro and GFS both show this right now,surprisingly right now

Oh yeah,enjoy every moment of it.Kids love it !! I have to call my lawn people out,i havent even picked up my yard yet. Like @Mathew was saying earlier we dont need to have any severe right now here,the trees are still stressed and damaged,we had some gust of just winds last Sat morning and knocked our power out for about 6 hrs

Headed to Jacksonville in the morning to visit,not sure ill make it there in time for severe.Wife has to do something in the morning before we can leave Next week if we can get moisture we could possibly get some strong storms towards the end of the work week,much depends on where the subtropical ridge is at