jaxjagman

The SOI took a big rise recently.Seems like we'd be seeing some sort of strong CF, maybe the end of the month,Nov first of Dec along with the MJO possibly getting out of the unfavorable WP and possibly WH,tho the Euro Mean dont have alot of support.The SSWE today the Euro backed off of any SSWE.But the Euro does have some support it should turn colder into the first week of Dec with the ensembles.Just need the MJO to stay active,hate a warm Christmas,you always as we get into winter in out parts want to see troughs into East China into the Sea of Japan,thats a cold look as long as the NAO cooperates

Should have said we'll know more by next week.But some of social media especially on X make it sound like the apocalypse is coming.We're gonna fall -800C below normal,snow drifts as tall as the empire state building,we're all gonna die.Like there hasnt been a SSWE before.

You have to have warming with the wind reversal to be a major SSWE,right now it just seems to be a minor,but thats to early to tell,Euro only shows the wind reversal lasting just a couple days.We'll find out soon enough,next week.

Where is this,cool pic anyways?Looks so surreal,awesome

Prior the turkey day it looks to be a battle between AI/GFS/Euro VS the ensembles In a real mans world you'd stick with the ensembles this far out.Guess we'll see who caves in the upcoming days.But i thought my self there would be a trough in the East before turkey day

My thinking is later on there will be a phoon headed towards China the next couple days,this will pump up the heights from the Yellow Sea into Japan along with the MJO headed into the WP,so that should be height rises towards Mid Nove for a few days,guess the good news right now is the MJO could possibly go into the COD,but anyways what the EPS seems to be showing today is a trough going thru East Asia round the 15th,so we'd probably be seeing a CF right before thanksgiving and back to BN temps at least for a bit..JMO

Thought it would be a more severe thunderstorm not tor watch

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 635 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Alabama South-Central Kentucky Middle into Eastern Tennessee * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1000 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify through the remainder of the afternoon and persist through much of the evening, as they move west to east across the Watch area. A few of the stronger storms will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for isolated large hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Scattered damaging gusts (60-70 mph) are possible with the stronger storms and may focus with the more organized thunderstorm bands as a mix of linear and cellular storms evolve. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Crossville TN to 40 miles east of Muscle Shoals AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

Looks meh,DP's arent even into the 60s along the Al/TN line,no convection other than 1-40N ATM

I was about to post this..lol

Doubt we see any SSWE soon, the Euro shows the winds decelerating some but thats not going to be much to weaken it a whole lot,then shortly after they accererate once again.Its fairly strong right now,well below the modern day era

MJO is headed towards the WP in a few days,Euro and JMA seem to be in good agreement it could possibly stay active as it gets into the NH,no clue what it does after that ATM.But this upcoming pattern as we get towards the middle of Nov looks rather bleak for several days,more than likely SER,just make matters worse all the models has a phoon headed towards East China next week

Guess we can say Auburn got Freezed out yesterday

We seem to have a similar pattern as of last year to an extent as of the date today.Most of the models have been into a good agreement recently of the MJO but now are starting to distance themselves recently it seems.Should see what the MJO does upcoming.CFS other than timing right now looks the same AS 2024,posted up top.One difference right now should be the QBO as we was more in a de-amplified QBO but westerly to a amped Easterly.Think the last thing you want to see for a cold Nov is for the MJO to get into the WP,

Thinnk this fall has alot of similarties to last fall as we head into Dec,some teleconnections surley dont match ATM

Yeah but you have to read what the author wrote bro,hes talking about from 2008-present and gives a date Sept29 through Oct 5,hes actually right,hes just talking about a certain period to his credit

This winter or leading into at least has alot of characteristics of 2024,ENSO,PDO,etc., yeah some teleconnections wont match up mainly the QBO.Be interesting to see how this winter spawns out,seems more than likely a weak PV unlike last winter with a westerly QBO almost into COD sort of speaking Seems to me we probably see a wavy pattern this year with no great analog years.Even the MJO this time of year is similar to last or even possibly into the next few weeks,dunno,we'll see.But the ENSO is quite similar right now. The MJO pic is from last year

Could break the record high Sat around here ahead of the CF,possibly even some severe storms,we could use some rain again here,we've went into a lull lately once again with any liquid

For a Nina pattern the Gulf of Mexico has been dormant,other than TS Barry hitting the Bay of Campeche in late June there has been notta,that hasnt happened since 1991,You'd think we'd have an active S/Jet this winter,severe/cold,who knows

Seen that also today https://www.facebook.com/ChrisJustusWYFF4ChiefMeteorologist/posts/️-attention-snow-lovers-️the-european-seasonal-snow-forecast-is-out-and-while-we/1343397287154418/

PDO finally rose some what last month,it was the most negative this summer in July and August since 1854,record breaking months anyways,hopefully the shutdown dont last long so we can see the next update sooner than later https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

So many objectives to play with this winter.I keep seeing social media seemingly saying this is a slam dunk of 2010-2011,why? I mean you do have the early Siberian snowfall going into Oct which is a plus,BUT at the same time in 2010,had seemingly a strong westerly +QBO,in which would keep possibly the PV strong its what we seen last winter In California which is even more unusual during a Nina had record rainfall in Dec of 2010.Even the -NAO,wemt on record of being the strongest ever recorded since 1825 ?Not sure how records were recorded back then,im not that old..lol

Not really sure how anyone can really come up with a real good analog for this winter anymore.Like Carver mentioned above we have a easterly QBO unlike last year it was more westerly.The SST'S in East Asia are so warm into the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan,and in August resulted in the warmest month of August ever in South Korea and Japan,it was the hottest in Japan ever since records were taken back into 1898

I dunno,dont shoot the messenger,but it seems to be more related to the ENSO,IN 1980 our subforum into NC and the east coast would be saying bring it on,maybe a coincidence,i have know clue,planetary waves can take weeks if not months to have effects in NA, but both of these years i stated above seem to be more of developing ELNino,not NINA with a SWE in the SP https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar011980EventReview

Think more study should be looked at.SSWE are rare to start with in the SP,since last year there never has been one since 2002,its even more rare last year there were two.But there is also seemingly some correlation with ELNino and LaNIna,in 1979 and the last SSWE in 2002,these were ELNINO years,.2003 winter had the great blizzard in the Mid Atlantic/NE,late JanBut i still think these planetary waves,Rossby,etc,etc in the NP would be hard to predict from what happens in the SP