jaxjagman

Typhoons in East Asia can definite cause unexpected pattern changes.But the problem is at least to me is there are two phoons while the strongest phoon is directed towards east China,the phoon is the WP actually to some extent counters the phoon headed towards China,you dont see no big height rises into the Koreas into Japan.The -NAO right now is just as well a player,heat should return in the plains along with the MJO moving into the MC,WP,this is MHO

MJO moving into the Maritime.GFS and Euro is trying to light the torch for our parts but we seem to be in a -NAO right now into the next several days Typically the MJO moving into P5 mean this time of year heat stroke moves into the plains not us,ensembles seem to look good ATM

All good,i saw where Mark Baldwin posted it and he gave credit to the poster

Nice VID,looks like a spinner to me

Subsurface temps are now around +9C along a broad area,record was set back in 97-15 Ninos 10C,should make a run to tie that at least in the upcoming period,seemingly

CF passed through and took out the humidity,nice evening like you said

Not a whole lot of convection in TN,dont care for occluded systems,they can be real messy at times https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/meso_band.php?sat=G19&lat=35N&lon=84W&band=FED13&length=30

Maybe yall will get some strong storms in the East,yalls PW's are much better around 2.1" and the winds are from the SW. I have to give the NAM some kudos,it showed this from the get go,right where SPC has the slight risk and never backed down,not often you see this with the NAM

Maybe you can get some better convevtion if you havent beem touched,dunno https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=smv&band=EXTENT3&length=24&dim=1&refresh=true

See what happens,there is a statinonary boundary into Southern KY,with A MCS diving down,shouldnt be severe now,just a drought buster

should get a good light show in the next few min,plenty of instability to work with

HORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 There are 2 main concerns through Tuesday: heat and storms. A Heat Advisory was issued for our far western counties starting this afternoon, then expanding across most areas west of the Plateau starting Monday morning. The advisory will last until 8 PM Tuesday. The hot ridge over the Rockies and High Plains will bulge eastward, giving areas west of the Plateau highs in the mid 90s with heat index values well over 100. This results in Heat Risk levels reaching Major Risk level (3 out of 4). Although atmospheric moisture has decreased since yesterday with precipitable water values dropping below 2 inches, near surface moisture remains high with dew points in the 70s. Dew points can be expected to remain high through Tuesday and those PW values will climb again giving fuel for storms with heavy rainfall. So what are the details on storms? First of all, in this hot, steamy environment with some residual boundaries, we cannot rule out some storms any time, especially in the heat of the afternoon and evening. But, models are continuing to indicate an overnight MCS for tonight into early Monday morning. There are inconsistencies with track and intensity, but that is typical of this pattern. We know that very moist and unstable conditions will be present into the late night hours, so any storms that dive down from KY will have the potential to produce damaging winds and localized flash flooding. At this time, we are under a level 2 out of 5 severe risk north of I-40 with a level 1 out of 5 to the south. It would be wise to monitor updates through the evening and be prepared for possible severe storms in the overnight hours. Along with locally developing scattered storms, we cannot rule out another big storm cluster later Monday. Basically, we need to be watching to our north northwest through the next 48 hours. As we wrap up Tuesday, we will see a medium to high chance for storms ahead of a cold front. This Tuesday evening frontal passage will turn off the storms and drop temperatures to normal levels for the rest of the week.

Most seemingly is by a MCS into the night and early morning,the low level shear and lapse rates get better leading into later today,as to where this MCS goes which seems to be middle TN or east TN is still the question,Plenty of instability.HRR shows the KI-index of 44,would be quite a light show around Nashville,probably will back down later runs on that

Most strong Ninos produce moisture,as to what happens this winter is surely uncertain,i still think NOV could dry out,severe Dec cold Jan and Feb,March are crap shots,but probably AN,thats just my opinion and surely might not be right

Maybe we will get a break with clouds upcoming,be cool to watch https://www.amsmeteors.org/meteor-showers/meteor-shower-calendar/#Perseids

ERW should help kick off a strong phoon headed towarsd East Asia,both the Euro and GFS today shows it headed towards Japan,but who knows where it goes right now,East China we could really warm up into Aug here

We moved from Brentwood to Franklin,we was surrounded by trees in Brentwood but we have a open skyline here,quite nice

Definite rotation around Vanleer

Finally getting some decent rain' Flash Flood Warning TNC037-149-187-200230- /O.NEW.KOHX.FF.W.0031.260720T0030Z-260720T0230Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Nashville TN 730 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Southeastern Davidson County in middle Tennessee... Northwestern Rutherford County in middle Tennessee... Northeastern Williamson County in middle Tennessee... * Until 930 PM CDT. * At 730 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

Best storm in weeks is coming though,even knocked our power off brieftly

Most of the rain upcoming seems like a boundary slipping down,who know who gets the rain but even so the MJO into the WH/EP isnt a rather dry solution,more unsettled in days ahead

Last few days a bulleye has shown of +9C,while +8C is slowly expanding in the east,seemingly this is being caused by the MJO moving into the region along with a DWKW. We get into August the CFS shows another which could be the strongest yet WWB along the IDL,but thats to far out to trust ATM

How are yall even in a drought..lol We are having the same luck here like @ Dwagner is going through,i dont think we've gotten a inch the last 30 days while some parts are doing exceptional well.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/rare-atlantic-nina-joins-super-el-nino-atmospheric-shield-hurricane-season-winter-united-states-canada-fa/