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jaxjagman

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Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. jaxjagman
    Did it really?My comments are by the strongest NINOS in the past and nothing resembles the 2015 NINO
  2. jaxjagman
    Thought the same thing,THE DMI tho was comparable to 1982 this year,but even so this NINO is kinda mind boggling with the PDO,the graph i posted above was the SSTS which clearly shows `95 was a west/central based NINO,unlike this year
  3. jaxjagman
    Dont agree with 2015.The early onset of the strong NIno happened in 2014 comprared 82-97 and for that matter this year.In the NINO that developed in 2015 the Walker circulation broke down and you didnt see these WWB but saw EWB off South America
  4. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    The MJO into the IOD,which still is having some effect on the ENSO,by waves,the MJO regardless how you look at it into the thermocline isnt getting stronger,its slowly weakening right now Right now,it still looks like the MJO is going to be probably stick into the IO the next couple weeks and just being getting destructive interfernce form Rossby and Kelvin waves.You can really see a Rossby Wave moving in the East pac moving east to west,the next several days just as much with the aide of a KW,least that what it seems right now,today
  5. jaxjagman
    HRES still is still showing along with esembles which are fairly well clustered being stuck into the IO the next couple weeks,by far right now its been doing a fairly decent job as most of the RMMS now are showing the same thing to an extent
  6. jaxjagman
    Has this NINO not actually peaked?To much going against it right now to get stronger.Some strange PDO along right now along with the MJO into the IO which should have some effect by the Bjerknes effect.While these might spawn sorta speaking Kelvin waves,more than likely would seem to be upwelling not down.It would seemingly cause more mixing not strenghting.Impressive NINO regardless
  7. jaxjagman
    Figured it would go though the Luzon maybe towards Hong Kong around there,seems to be going to get sheared out the next upcoming days,dunno
  8. jaxjagman
    East China
  9. jaxjagman
    You got your freeze @John..lol.We was 4 degrees BN yesterday,would rather see some rain right now,looks like thats not going to work out very well the next 7-days
  10. jaxjagman
    Do agree,you might alrady be seeing this in the extened period,but right now a phoon going into East Asia is going to cause a Upper Level Ridge to build into the Sea of Japan,then days after into the plains and NE,Emembles show this very well
  11. jaxjagman
    Reckon its good news only being Oct,but you really hate to see Phoons going to East China,and not recurving,never works out very well
  12. jaxjagman
    Typhoon going into East China isnt really what you'd like to see.Sea of Japan is already warm,it will probably warm .You have different currents run through East Asia,the Thusima current runs though the Strait of Japan,the Kuroshio current as mentioned above,but just as muxh is the cold polar Oyashio current which runs from the Bearing Sea,this current generally mixes out along the Kurrishio extension,its simply not doing it,its not that cold
  13. jaxjagman
    Euro has been fairly consistent the last several day of strenghtening the MJO into the IO,CFS is going into the Maritime but seemingly could just be interference via Rossby Wave,hard to go against the Euro IMO as consistent its been the last several days
  14. jaxjagman
    Ha,cold front is in East Tn,we dropped into the 50'S already before 3PM,would have liked to see some rain but will take the cooler temps
  15. jaxjagman
    Do agree,looks nothing like 1997 respective to today
  16. jaxjagman
    Cold front should pass through today.We broke record highs this week,.each day from Monday-Thursday each day,not to often you see that Up into next week is a EWB into the IO with a Kelvin Wave,MJO should go into the Eastern IO or phase 3 regardless of what the RRMS seemingly is showing for several days,so it still should be moving along. Next weekend a strong typhoon is seemingly headed towards East China,this will build up the ridge once again off SE Japan,shades of summer once again maybe in the long range to an extent. Think the Euro is doing a good job sorta with the MJO,so i'm riding it myself right now,but its going to murky as it heads towards the COD again seemingly
  17. jaxjagman
    Definite dont see the PDO flipping anytime soon. Yellow Sea and especially Sea of Japan into the Western Pac should be cooling not warming.These more polar currents are getting overwhelmed by the warm currents,it should be getting mixed out but its really not
  18. jaxjagman
    Woke up around 230 this morning and looked at RAOBS and the sytem closed back up somewhere around the Cumberland so we at least had some light rain,the dry air still tho was brutal last evening,oh well,have to cut my grass now next week..lol
  19. jaxjagman
    Still wanted to see more rain,the system seemed to open up much sooner than what was modeled,the dry air getting funneled at every level has wrecked this system,disappointing
  20. jaxjagman
    Not very impressed,the dry air getting funneled into this storm, much more than what the models have been showing,Southern MID Tn did quite well tho,was hoping for more rain here
  21. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Least we are seeing some changes These EWB'S into the IO with the active MJO into the the WH and AFRICA,should probably stall the MJO signal into the IO by the Bjerknes effect,this should help take out the NINO background out for a a short time anyways,but it looks much cooler still in our parts as we head towards the mid month
  22. jaxjagman
    Still think we cool down around the mid-month,seemingly we are just fiximg to get sandwiched from the tropics.JMA and Euro are close to be on the same page in the extended period with the MJO,least we should get a break for a few days
  23. jaxjagman
    Least we are starting to see the the PDO changing for that matter as well so is the IOD,IOD should be warmer in a strong NINO
  24. jaxjagman
    Sorry to hear about yoru mom ,my prayers go out to you and your family
  25. jaxjagman
    You could be right.Hardeman Co in TN had had a EF4 right before Christmas 2015, which tracked from MS,so regardless you can never say never.But in still 2015 was a well pronounced Central based NINO compared to this year,most of the severe should be further towards the Gulf states and not into our region this winter
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