NorthShoreWx

There will probably be some sleet, but my hunch is it's not going to come through as a rapid and final changeover. There will be pinging on the window followed by hurried posts that it's over, with followup from the same posters an hour later that's its back to all snow, or two towns are getting snow and the town right between them is sleeting and then it reverses. Good chance it all ends with a bit more snow accumulation. It's not going to be a clean process north of I-78, unless it sleets all the way to Albany, which it won't. Side note, LMAO over the UKMET NYC precip hole. That's not going to happen.

You've got 2 days left to hit the gym. Balance is certainly an issue with a heavily weighted shovel. Personally, I don't load the shovel with 40 pounds of anything.

One problem is that we tend to forget that the p-type maps are caca:

He's a good man.

So is 20" of snow with an inch and a half of water content. Which is heavier, a pound of feathers or a pound of rocks?

Umm, has anyone seen Franklin?

Roger Smith for President!

Nexactly!

There hasn't been plenty of anything over the past 5 years.

540 line is too rough to use as a definitive ptype demarc especially when it is still close. 546, which is depicted to our south could still be snow. The devil is in the details. The 850s do look very warm at 96 and beyond.

Then you would have loved the blizzard this week in 1978: https://www.northshorewx.com/19780120.html

Yeah, all this pure snow we've been getting the past 3 or 4 winters is getting boring

GFS LP drops 22mb in 24 hours. Only a wee bit shy of a bomb, and with that big high over Quebec, there would be some wind.

Awesome photo! Similar scene here:

I basically agree, except that I was here in 1978.

That was all snow here with an excruciatingly long period of rain on the south shore.

And this is a problem why?

Temperature got up to 34 briefly during the day before falling back below freezing, but it's been warming since sunset and is now up to 37.6 with snow flurries.

Seems you've answered your own question.

It doesn't even flip on LI (at least on those Pivotal p-type maps). Rare but not unheard of. Reminds me of 2-13-14 when we never got above freezing and were getting freezing rain while other places, including some inland, were getting plain rain.

January 21 (today) is on average (since 1/1/1996) the coldest day of the year in Smithtown. The actual unsmoothed average of the prior thirty years on January 21 is 26.9° F (min 20.0, max 33.8). A simplistic smoothing of the data (not cubic spline) results in a normal for the date of 29.3° (min 21.8, max 36.8). Interestingly, today's weather is going to bring that average down a little. It likes to be cold at this time of year. Tomorrow is similar, but the warming trend in the averages after that is noticeable.

I've seen great soundings for ratios, temps well down in the 20s, and gotten 12" of snow on 1.5" liquid in high winds. Mind you, the forecast soundings didn't verify perfectly, but the promise of high ratios was hollow. I think it happens more here because this is a windier place in a nor'easter; at least it is windier just off the deck with winds off the sound.

https://www.northshorewx.com/19780113.html

Or this one: