NorthShoreWx

They are a lot closer to the GOM, which is a source for us too in this event. Atlantic not that big a deal until the coastal gets going

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 948 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A NOR-EASTER WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING ON FRIDAY. A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY BUILDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/... AS OF 9 AM...A BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 6 INCHES PER HOUR HAS OVERSPREAD COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION...COLLOCATED WITH AN INTENSE FRONTOGENETIC BAND LIFTING NORTH FROM CENTRAL NJ AND OFF THE OCEAN. REPORTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES HAVE BEEN COMING INTO THE OFFICE UNDER THIS BAND. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST...RESULTING IN NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THIS HEAVY SNOW BAND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT THROUGH 11 AM...COMBINED WITH 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS...WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. AROUND 1 FT OF SNOW LIKELY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THIS BAND. AT THE SAME TIME...WATCHING TRANSITION LINE TO SLEET AND RAIN CREEPING UP THE COAST...CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF LI/NYC. THIS SHOULD START WORKING INTO THE SHORELINE OF LI/NYC BY AROUND 9 AM...AND THEN GRADUALLY PROGRESSING NORTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING. CHANGEOVER LINE WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT TRIES TO PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL FRONTOGENETIC BAND IS NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON. OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS DRY SLOT WORKING NORTH THROUGH THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD WORK INTO LI/NYC AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE NJ BY AROUND MIDDAY...AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERY PRECIP EXPECTED UNDER THIS DRY SLOT FOR REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...UNTIL DEFORMATION BANDING/INSTABILITY PRECIP STARTS WORKING IN FROM THE SW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN THEEVENING. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE TIMING OF CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN SETS UP REMAINS A WILD CARD...BUT EARLY INDICATION ARE THAT IT MAY SET UP A BIT FARTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM SHOWS A ROBUST AXIS OF PCPN WITH OVER A HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE TNGT. FIRST CHCS WITH THETAE ADVECTION...SECOND ROUND WITH H5 LOW PASSING OVER THE CWA. WINDS STILL ON TRACK FOR 45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS ERN ZONES WITH A 970S LOW NEAR MARTHAS VINEYARD AT 6Z FRI. ISOLD HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTN WITH A 60 KT NELY LLJET AT H925.

North Shore local jack, although NWNJ/OC did even better. We had over a foot followed by a little freezing rain and a bonus inch on the backend. South shore flipped to plain rain.

That might have been around January 8 94

It might still be a back and forth. The solid slam the door, straight-line "sleet front" on some of the models isn't likely to manifest that way. Most of the p-type graphics don't even have a representation of mixing. Some of the soundings I looked at were brutal, but others had a warm nose that looked too cold and too shallow to melt anything. It'll sleet, but that will be fine.

The fun will be in seeing what actually happens and comparing it to all this model variation. My preference is the big snow, but enjoy whatever happens and don't look at Boston until the storm is over.

Sounds like it's averaging every post about it that has ever appeared in this forum. A bit of circular reasoning going on?

Nice. My son will enjoy it.

How much for Medford? But seriously, how much for Medford?

That would be greater than the streak of 16 days in 1961 (Streak ended during a 17" snowstorm on February 4). NYC will need to stay <32 through 2/9 to break that record. Sidenote: from the February 3-4, 1961 storm on the north shore of LI: https://www.northshorewx.com/19610204.html Addendum: The woman in the doorway is my mom. The girl is my cousin. Before my time. Paul Kocin used this photo in a slide show he gave at an old EUSWX conference.

I am using a single malt.

Do I need to post the pound of feathers vs pound of rocks analogy again?

Ripping, except projectile vomiting in the I-84 corridor.

Where's the beer?

Cape May is almost as far south as DC.

How were the temperatures there in the 2007 storm?

This is crazy:

I think we've got a good shot. It'll be a little deflating when the pinging starts, but after its over we'll feel it wasn't that bad.

Glad to hear he's still at it.

I don't think the sleet will freeze into a brick here. GFS temps here during the storm get no higher than 25⁰ and on the NAM 23⁰. The smallish warm nose on both is above 800 millibars and below that falls quickly well below freezing and stays that way all the way to the surface. If you keep a bag of ice cubes cold enough, they don't stick together. Plus, I anticipate it will be more sleet snow mix (back and forth for a few hours) than pure sleet. I agree with you that this is going to be a good one either way.

Snowmegaly

I'm pretty confident it will taint, but I think the somewhat weak consensus in this thread is overestimating the magnitude of it. I looked at model soundings last night that showed the warmest part of the column at about -2C at my location aligned with a p-type map where we were deep into the purple. Gives me more confidence in the NWS sticking to their guns. The 3rd party p-type maps are often bizarre. I'm eager to see NAM soundings once most of the storm gets within 60 hours.

You didn't mention slush. Slush sucks.

There will probably be some sleet, but my hunch is it's not going to come through as a rapid and final changeover. There will be pinging on the window followed by hurried posts that it's over, with followup from the same posters an hour later that's its back to all snow, or two towns are getting snow and the town right between them is sleeting and then it reverses. Good chance it all ends with a bit more snow accumulation. It's not going to be a clean process north of I-78, unless it sleets all the way to Albany, which it won't. Side note, LMAO over the UKMET NYC precip hole. That's not going to happen.

You've got 2 days left to hit the gym. Balance is certainly an issue with a heavily weighted shovel. Personally, I don't load the shovel with 40 pounds of anything.