NorthShoreWx

Yeah, all this pure snow we've been getting the past 3 or 4 winters is getting boring

GFS LP drops 22mb in 24 hours. Only a wee bit shy of a bomb, and with that big high over Quebec, there would be some wind.

Awesome photo! Similar scene here:

I basically agree, except that I was here in 1978.

That was all snow here with an excruciatingly long period of rain on the south shore.

And this is a problem why?

Temperature got up to 34 briefly during the day before falling back below freezing, but it's been warming since sunset and is now up to 37.6 with snow flurries.

Seems you've answered your own question.

It doesn't even flip on LI (at least on those Pivotal p-type maps). Rare but not unheard of. Reminds me of 2-13-14 when we never got above freezing and were getting freezing rain while other places, including some inland, were getting plain rain.

January 21 (today) is on average (since 1/1/1996) the coldest day of the year in Smithtown. The actual unsmoothed average of the prior thirty years on January 21 is 26.9° F (min 20.0, max 33.8). A simplistic smoothing of the data (not cubic spline) results in a normal for the date of 29.3° (min 21.8, max 36.8). Interestingly, today's weather is going to bring that average down a little. It likes to be cold at this time of year. Tomorrow is similar, but the warming trend in the averages after that is noticeable.

I've seen great soundings for ratios, temps well down in the 20s, and gotten 12" of snow on 1.5" liquid in high winds. Mind you, the forecast soundings didn't verify perfectly, but the promise of high ratios was hollow. I think it happens more here because this is a windier place in a nor'easter; at least it is windier just off the deck with winds off the sound.

https://www.northshorewx.com/19780113.html

Or this one:

Request for the admins: Can we add this emoji? j/k

Might be a good day for the ferry.

1N Smithtown 17.0"

Ah, the O. Henry conundrum. Or you could self-limit voluntarily.

Melted water equivalent for the weekend here was 0.50". Includes the 0.3" snow on Saturday and the 2.6" on Sunday. Roughly 6:1 ratio across both events.

It rubs the lotion on its skin.

Meanwhile, the 12z op GFS has about 1.25" qpf in our backyards over the next 16 days and half of that is rain. It wouldn't be as much fun if everything was locked in.

It could possibly be useful by Saturday morning. It is unhelpful now.

Best to post qpf charts, or at least 10:1 snowfall at this point. That way everyone can make their own forecasts of ratios from a common starting point. The same water content is pretty much the same amount of snow on the ground a few days after it falls regardless of the ratio when it fell. SWE matters.

What was your total for both days?

2.6" North Smithtown (includes snow that fell Sunday 1/18 through early Monday morning). Saturdays total was 0.3" Season total is 17.0"