NorthShoreWx

Never lived there. 40.88N is as far south as I go.

Models have mostly been suggesting that but I'm not convinced. I don't have any basis of comparison regarding heat content of the Sound waters, but the surface water temps have cooled to the point where I don't think it's usually enough to be fatal. Right on the beaches maybe, but a quarter of a mile away up the hill or on top of the bluff might be no worse off than the rest of the island.

Dang. Sounds like 1914 all over again. I'm pretty much in step with the consensus for LI but not high confidence. I can see a lot that can go wrong with this one.

I wouldn't say "usually". It depends on the time of year. Very early in the season actually favors the city. Most of the cold season favors the north shore in marginal set-ups. But its situational. Some storms are going to shaft us. March 1914 and February 2010 come to mind as noteworthy exceptions to the late in the season pattern. Everyone here remembers the March storm, right?

It's been a consistent message across much of the modeling that however much falls, this is depicted locally as a north shore jackpot. The LI Sound water temps are in the 40s which isn't that big a deal. Early season snows with water temps near 60 kill the north shore (think Oct 2011, and Nov 2012).

Precipitation ended here in the past half hour after about 2.5 hours of light non-accumulating snow. Cloudy and 33 at 3:30PM.

That probably had a lot to do with it. We had a lot of white rain before it started sticking. Also I think points farther west did better. I think NE Nassau had up to 8 or 9 inches. The Sound helps for most of the winter, but being within a couple of miles of the Sound also gives us a longer growing season kind of like parts of CNY near Lake Ontario (but not as pronounced). We had nothing but a few wet flakes here in October 2011. A couple of miles south there was snow on the ground. An interesting quirk is radiational cooling at night. We are often one of the cold spots on the island a day after Westhampton records some crazy low. Once the breeze begins to shift as high pressure starts to pass to the east, we are effectively far from the water and decouple well while the South shore maintains an onshore breeze. During the "best" radiation nights we sometimes keep a light northerly breeze going all night. Even so, we can be several degrees colder than a mile north of here on those nights.

25 here. The Sound is still very warm.

7 years ago this morning in Smithtown. We got about 3.5" in the post-Sandy noreaster.

First snow of the season here atm. Just a few pathetic flakes making it to the ground, but the first is the first.

How is that not an all snow sounding? Did you post the wrong image?

Eh, we might still have a few tricks up our sleeves. It's hard to find this thread. There about 350 pinned threads above it. Glad some in the sub-forum aren't sitting on the ledge.

It was a good run for the coast. 2 months of 10"+ @ KMGJ is a nice winter. 2011, 2014, and 2015 were good snow cover winters here. I'll run those stats when I get a chance. This winter, we wait for the MJO to find it's MoJO

No such luck. From 12/26/2010 - 1/27/2011 we had 51.4" (33 days). We only had 12" in the 12/26 blizzard. 2010-2011 Snow cover (2N Smithtown): 1" or more from 12/27 - 2/28. At least a trace from 12/27 - 3/6. 20"+ from 1/26 - 2/3. 10"+ from 1/12 - 2/17. Max depth 27" early on 1/27 (not recorded...was 25" at 9AM obs time). 1/27/11:

Sounds like a typical autumn day on the Tug.

January 26, 2011 (before the big snowfall). The first 6 weeks of the 2010-11 winter were great.

I recall January 21 from that winter. For some reason I have no memory of the rest of it.

One of the more memorable flash freezes of the past half century. This one was pretty extreme:

I assume it did not get that cold.

Not the first place I'd think of for the LI cold spot, although they were probably already iced in prior to that outbreak. I'll dig up what I had found if I get a chance later.

Old local newspapers refer to a number of spots around -19 , -20 in 1934. Don't know how accurate, but there were multiple such reports. 1934 might have been the colder outbreak though. Deep snow cover and radiational cooling contributed in 1961. Presumably there was some wind and more mixing (i.e., colder aloft) in 1934 for it to have gotten as cold as it did in NYC.

December 7, 2003 Regrettably this was a week before I got my first digital camera. It may have been the reason I got my first digital camera. Good memories and stories from that, including being on the Kings Park Bluffs in blizzard conditions on the 6th and picking up a friend at ISP during strong winds and relatively light snow late in the evening on the 5th. He had moved from CT to FL a few years earlier and was blown away by the conditions walking across the parking lot to my car. That also gave me respect for small airports; air travel was severely messed up and that flight landed at ISP right on schedule despite strong winds and and snow and about 8" on the ground at that point. There wasn't much more snowfall overnight, but we ended up with 16" on the ground after part deux.

Upton on LI set their record low of -23 in January 1961. That's some crazy pipe cracking cold for these parts.

We managed to get squat here. Maybe a few minutes of snizzle.

I enjoyed that one. 14" here and we never got above freezing on north central LI. I remember being called a liar when I said we had freezing rain here while it was plain rain in OC. I still don't really understand how we got stuck in that bubble, but it was pretty cool. I stitched together some video (a little accuwx and Craig audio in the background) and a few stills...Here ya go: