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Everything posted by NorthShoreWx
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
NorthShoreWx replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
It doesn't always do better. However, the north shore of Suffolk County is anywhere from 8 to 25 miles farther north than central park and a SE surface flow is coming over land for up to 25 miles. That and a lot less UHI, I'd expect average annual snowfall to be higher here. But there's always going to be the March 1914's and December 2005's (among others) to break our hearts. I haven't gotten over 1914 yet Orient Point isn't a good example because it is very much maritime, but as the farthest north part of LI, it is farther north than West Milford (NJ), New City (Rockland), Armonk (Westchester) and New Canaan (CT). In some setups, that matters more.- 1,119 replies
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
NorthShoreWx replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
0Z NAM soundings over the north shore only get near/above freezing in the boundary. Still shows it ending as rain but no hint of sleet in those soundings.- 1,119 replies
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
NorthShoreWx replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
13:1 ratio is pretty decent on the coast.- 1,119 replies
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
NorthShoreWx replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Indeed. Specifically, that record is from BNL (Upton): https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm Mine are roughly similar with year to year variations (distance between the 2 locations is about 17 miles): http://www.northshorewx.com/ClimateData/SmithtownDailySnowfall.pdf- 1,119 replies
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
NorthShoreWx replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
I was a bit young then, but I recall a storm that I think was the same February storm where we had about 6" of snow in the morning, then most of it washed away in the afternoon, then it flipped back and we had another 6" in the evening. I'm pretty sure it was on a Saturday because I remember dad taking us sledding the next day (Sunday). Could be a different time, but I also recall another 5 or 6" overnight a few days later from what a radio met (Gordon Barnes?) described as an "upper air disturbance".- 1,119 replies
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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
NorthShoreWx replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
68 was a popular number regionally. The max in Smithtown was also 68. I spent the day in Oakland, NJ where it was quite nice. I would consider anything past Montreal to be outside of the NYC Metro area. Plenty of room for PoTown. -
January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
NorthShoreWx replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Touched 63 here just after 1PM. 59 now. -
There's actually still a pretty good pile of snow in a parking lot of an office building on main street in Smithtown. I go by it about once a week and it always surprises me. I had to go poke at it the other day just to confirm it really is snow. I have no idea where they found enough snow on pavement to plow into that pile or how it has survived this long.
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0.8" snow total here, liquid 0.17" The initial snow melted for a while and I think the ratio once it started accumulating was likely close to the traditional 10:1 I was expecting no more than a few hundredths liquid out of this event with no more than a dusting of snow, so in the glass half full category, for me this was an over performer. Total seasonal snowfall in Smithtown is 6.4". This puts us ahead of 1997-98 and 2011-2012, but we still have an inch to go to move ahead of 2001-2002 in the least snowfall category. 2001-2002 would have been even worse but we had one unusual local event to add a little interest during the brief wintry spell in January 2002: http://www.northshorewx.com/LES20020107Case.html
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Looks better than it is. Under an inch. 0.8"
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I was honestly expecting nothing.
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Light snow flurries in Smithtown. 38.
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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
NorthShoreWx replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Edward Lorenz is fluttering in his grave. -
January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
NorthShoreWx replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
First flurries of the new year here this afternoon. -
The only news stories I believe are the ones that tell me the other side is pure evil.
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December 25 - 26, 1976 snow totals. In addition to the Christmas night fun, this was significant because for most locations it established a snow cover that persisted well into February:: Patchogue 2 N 7.0 Syosset 5.8 Mineola 5.0 Holbrook 5.0 Islip LI Macarthur AP 4.0 Riverhead Research Farm 4.0 Setauket Strong 4.0 New York JFK Intl AP 3.9 Greenport 3.5 New York La Guardia AP 3.2 NY City Central Park 3.1 Bridgehampton 0.1 Montauk 0.1 Bensonhurst 3.0 Westerleigh (SI) 5.2 Dobbs Ferry 4.6 Scarsdale 5.0 Yorktown Heights 5.0 West Point 3.5 Poughkeepsie 2.7 Walden 4.0 Gardnerville 4.0 Port Jervis 4.0 Bridgeport 5.0 Danbury 5.0 Woodbury, CT 4.0 Stamford (5N) 5.0 Groton 3.5 Middletown, CT 4.0 Newark 4.6 Canistear Reservoir (NJ) 3.5 Charlotteburg Reservoir (NJ) 3.3 Oak Ridge Reservoir 4.0 Sussex 4.0 Cranford, NJ 4.8 Freehold Marlboro 5.0 New Brunswick 6.5 Plainfield 6.0 Boston 2.6 Taunton 1.0 Providence 1.0 Philadelphia 1.7 Baltimore (BWI) Trace Syosset, NY 8AM 12/26/1976: And yes, that pine tree is flipping you the bird
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Must have been a wind off the water. High temp here today was 34. AM low was 23. Current is 29. rest of this week: 12/16 32 37 12/17 31 34 12/18 22 42 12/19 16 26 12/20 20 33 12/21 23 34 (through 5:45PM)
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Christmas night 1976 was quite a treat for a snow loving kid.
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February 1961 was 17.4" at Central Park. Perhaps you meant February 1969?
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Snowfall records from Syosset 1/1/76 - 12/31/78.
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Got it. I don't have anything for Oceanside, but 1/25/77 looks like a candidate. Mineola jackpot might be a clue (last column is snowfall): Bridgehampton 1977 1 25 0.27 0.5 Greenport 1977 1 25 0.2 0.6 Islip LI Macarthur AP 1977 1 25 0.09 0.5 Mineola 1977 1 25 0.1 2.6 New York JFK Intl AP 1977 1 25 0.1 1.1 New York La Guardia AP 1977 1 25 0.11 1.3 NY City Central Park 1977 1 25 0.03 0.3 Patchogue 2 N 1977 1 25 0.18 2.0 Riverhead Rsrch Farm 1977 1 25 0.14 1.5 Setauket Strong 1977 1 25 0.12 1.0 Syosset 1977 1 25 0.8
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1/28/77. The windblown snow was packed rock hard. It was like cars and homes getting buried in an avalanche: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blizzard_of_1977
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It wasn't 1/28/77. That was the arctic front and wave that caused a real emergency and buried Buffalo (only about 4" of synoptic snow, no lake effect to speak of off the frozen lake, but 75 mph wind gusts from the WSW blew massive amounts of snow sitting on the Lake Erie ice pack miles inland creating enormous drifts and taking quite a toll. In NYC / LI with morning temperatures well down in the teens and forecasts of a few inches of snow and near blizzard conditions accompanying the arctic front, it was quite a disappointment to snow lovers. Temps spiked to 44 ahead of the front and light rain in the evening ended as a coating of snow as temps fell back to 13 by midnight.
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There I was feeling proud of myself for thinking on Monday morning that there was a lot of potential for this evening's squalls, but I see you beat me by 12 hours. I completely agree that they were well modeled for days. One look at the soundings rather than the placement on a simulated radar highlighted the potential.
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Maybe 10 miles from you (maybe) and we had 0.5" on 12/24/13. It's hard to be in the bullseye for those "big" little mesoscale events. </end oxymoron>