NorthShoreWx

6.5" as of 1:05pm. 1.5" last hour. Snowing even harder now. 15°

By all means do!

5" in Smithtown as of 12pm. Was 3" at 10 am, so 1"/hour since. Heavy snow and 14°. Wind is now picking up and there is snow blowing off the roofs.

Need the new low to deepen more than the primary (soon) and for the primary to open up. Still lots of S-SW flow in the mid levels. That and stray a little east of the forecast like you said. So far, the modeling is too slow and a little too west with the secondary, but stranger things have happened.

For however little it's worth, the 12z TT 3k NAM clown map shows easily over 12" on LI. We'll see how the sleet affects that.

Looks the same on CoD site. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=DIX-N0C-1-24-100-usa-rad

P&C here is 8 - 14"

Plenty of indications that the mid level warmth makes faster progress to our west. Could see it flipping to sleet up in OC (if it gets that far) before it does here. This is shown on some of the mesos and borne out down on the Delmarva vs NoVa. We just need to hang on long enough. Might be able to swing a snow-sleet mix until very close to the end, which is looking like a little freezing drizzle. I'm not sure the difference between worst case and best case is all that much from this vantage point. Should be a fun day. 12⁰ with light snow here atm. Eyeballing between 2 and 3 inches. We have had a couple of heavy bursts.

That's a mix

Find out what the guys from the Central Park Conservancy are betting.

It's cold coast to coast except a small part of the southeast (mainly Florida). I don't recall seeing that.

Oh man, Jeb is getting old? Say it ain't so.

12⁰ Snow Snow began about 5:40 Fighting sun angle. We shall overcome.

Very low. Even in the best modern winters there were no more than ice flows. Maybe 90 or 100 years ago or longer. That's fast moving salt water ... difficult to freeze.

Yeah, trying to associate ratios with surface temps is a fools game. I've seen some of the best ratios right at 32. Bxstormwatcher...no offense intended

That intersection is 8 road miles for me; less for the proverbial crow. There's some pretty good hills just to the sw of the interchange.

Not sure precisely where you are, but my best guess is 7 or 8 miles tops (maybe less) as the crow flies. Plus I'm only at 122 feet. Spots near you are up to 300. I'll gladly take the foot. Molte grazie. Addendum: either way, our streets are going to look the same in a few days, and it will be a good look.

You might be right. I'm saying what I think will be the after effect of it it in a few days. There's more than one way to get there. When it comes to forecasting snow amounts and tricky p-types, I'm a bit of a snowflake

I'm usually reluctant to do forecasts because I am not schooled in forecasting...unless I am very confident in the forecast. Here is my high confidence forecast: In a few days the north shore of LI will look like it had 14" of snow a few days ago. 13/-3 now

That very 80s.

I've been finding today that adding 3 hours to his model start times is about right for here. I still appreciate the posts.

It's within the realm of possibility, but if I was a betting man (which I am not because that is verboten in this thread ) I would bet against it for at least 90% of the island.

Downhill in teh Catskills will be great. I'm looking for some nice skiing in the woods on LI. I'm not one to stick to the trails.

That's the one thing that will ruin the skiing for me. Sleet is fine; punching through crust sucks.

There is going to be 1 - 1.5" of LE region wide, all of it frozen (except maybe the Jersey shore and that whole area of dixie). This will be the most wintry week we have had in years, and it will look and feel it. Should be pretty cool. I'm waxing up my BC skis.