NorthShoreWx

How were the temperatures there in the 2007 storm?

This is crazy:

I think we've got a good shot. It'll be a little deflating when the pinging starts, but after its over we'll feel it wasn't that bad.

Glad to hear he's still at it.

I don't think the sleet will freeze into a brick here. GFS temps here during the storm get no higher than 25⁰ and on the NAM 23⁰. The smallish warm nose on both is above 800 millibars and below that falls quickly well below freezing and stays that way all the way to the surface. If you keep a bag of ice cubes cold enough, they don't stick together. Plus, I anticipate it will be more sleet snow mix (back and forth for a few hours) than pure sleet. I agree with you that this is going to be a good one either way.

Snowmegaly

I'm pretty confident it will taint, but I think the somewhat weak consensus in this thread is overestimating the magnitude of it. I looked at model soundings last night that showed the warmest part of the column at about -2C at my location aligned with a p-type map where we were deep into the purple. Gives me more confidence in the NWS sticking to their guns. The 3rd party p-type maps are often bizarre. I'm eager to see NAM soundings once most of the storm gets within 60 hours.

You didn't mention slush. Slush sucks.

There will probably be some sleet, but my hunch is it's not going to come through as a rapid and final changeover. There will be pinging on the window followed by hurried posts that it's over, with followup from the same posters an hour later that's its back to all snow, or two towns are getting snow and the town right between them is sleeting and then it reverses. Good chance it all ends with a bit more snow accumulation. It's not going to be a clean process north of I-78, unless it sleets all the way to Albany, which it won't. Side note, LMAO over the UKMET NYC precip hole. That's not going to happen.

You've got 2 days left to hit the gym. Balance is certainly an issue with a heavily weighted shovel. Personally, I don't load the shovel with 40 pounds of anything.

One problem is that we tend to forget that the p-type maps are caca:

He's a good man.

So is 20" of snow with an inch and a half of water content. Which is heavier, a pound of feathers or a pound of rocks?

Umm, has anyone seen Franklin?

Roger Smith for President!

Nexactly!

There hasn't been plenty of anything over the past 5 years.

540 line is too rough to use as a definitive ptype demarc especially when it is still close. 546, which is depicted to our south could still be snow. The devil is in the details. The 850s do look very warm at 96 and beyond.

Then you would have loved the blizzard this week in 1978: https://www.northshorewx.com/19780120.html

Yeah, all this pure snow we've been getting the past 3 or 4 winters is getting boring

GFS LP drops 22mb in 24 hours. Only a wee bit shy of a bomb, and with that big high over Quebec, there would be some wind.

Awesome photo! Similar scene here:

I basically agree, except that I was here in 1978.

That was all snow here with an excruciatingly long period of rain on the south shore.

And this is a problem why?