NorthShoreWx

Sure do. That's funny; I came within a hair of sending you this same photo yesterday. A classic!

Have a great time. Hopefully I can join another one of these in the future. Was a blast in the past. Ironically, we're hosting friends from MA this weekend.

Winter is back! The usual optimists serial posting snow maps and the usual boo-birds throwing hot water all over them. That's what I'm talking about; bring it on!

Looks nice in Kingston.

I've always agreed with all of this. I just don't see it as settling the main question

I'm at the reststop a few miles north of 84 on the Thruway. A little slush in the parking lot, but highway still wet. Nice to see it snowing though. Saw a little white rain mix not too many miles west of the river, then to very wet snow north of Suffern. Snowing nice here and close to freezing. It went from 50 in lower Westchester to 43 at the TZ. This would have been a fun ride without the traffic in the Bronx and lower WC.

I'm heading up to Kingston for an event this evening. I assume the thruway will be no worse than wet. Any intelligence to the contrary?

This response is about my perception of the usefulness of that graph. When I look at that data series, I see a series of ups and downs in an overall declining trend for much of the period, but that trend reversed in the past several decades. This chart gives me no confidence to predict what comes next The most obvious answer about how it is misleading is that the straight line on the graph represents a non-linear series. If we were to start the data series at 1980, it would be an increasing trend, not decreasing. Another way to look at it is that if extrapolating the trend lines forward there is a high probability of it being wrong. Anecdote: I literally ran a regression using the same data back in school in 1982 (using NYC snowfall 1870 - 1980). I wish I still had the greenbar it was printed on; that would be a trip. Extrapolating the line forward indicated that NYC snowfall was decreasing and would have fallen to zero prior to the present time. Considering 1980 to 2025 to be a short term trend and 1869 to 2025 to be a long term trend is subjective. Snowfall in the 1700s may have been higher than in the 1800s, but years prior to that may have been lower than it is now. There was a lesser amount of warming prior to 1980, and snowfall changes in that period were more likely "natural variations", yet figure prominently in the existing trend line. Personally, I don't know if snowfall is or isn't rising. I am confident that winters have gotten warmer. Warmer winters leading to less snowfall in our region seems intuitive, but so far we haven't seen any actual evidence. Edit: I just found the old greenbar printout mentioned. Damn, I saved a lot of old stuff.

The trend line is misleading. It compares the past couple of years to the 1800s. What does that look like if you start the chart in 1980?

Not having wind was the key. We had a breeze off the sound all night and were about the only place in the island that didn't get below 20 (although technically we did if you have confidence in the 19.9° that my sensor reported). Without that breeze, the low single number dewpoints would have resulted in much lower temperatures IMBY. Orient has around 18 miles more latitude, but that usually means nothing under high pressure. It's all wind, elevation, and water exposure (or a combination). For those less familiar with LI geography, Orient Point is 2 or 3 miles farther north than Suffern NY. Roughly on a line with Ossining and Bridgeport.

Last sighting seems to be October 21. Hopefully its not due to health or family problems.

It's who we are.

More inland helped. Even the south shore of Nassau was colder. Rare for us to be warmer than NYC absent an early season cutter.

We were busy sucking heat out the sound all night. Low here was 20. Wind stayed up all night. Water temperatures now into the high 30s/low 40s.

Is this RIC or ORF?

Is this because we stopped getting smaller storms or because some of the same storms got bigger? More of a rhetorical question because I have no idea how one could answer it. Is there a way to look at annual snowfall totals net of NESIS storms?

The leaf blowers never stop here. Green grass, ice storm, deep snow cover, nuclear winter; it doesn't matter. The sound of leaf blowers here is analogous to the sound of rushing water near Niagara falls.

Today's high temperatures have already occurred. They were above freezing for just about everyone.

Most places in this region are going to have above freezing max Ts on Monday. Maybe 40⁰ in NYC area. Temps in the wee hours are rising ahead of the Arctic front.

Driving home around 9PM last night on the LIE in eastern Nassau County we encountered a blizzard of salt. It continued until we passed the spreader which was salting the highway for some unknown reason. This was traditional rock salt, not brine.

No dustings here, but I did see a few sorry looking wet flakes mixed in with a quick shower that passed through around 8:30 this morning.

The last snowplow blade:

Well said. Didn't realize this board was around 100 years ago. And we still have some original members

So almost half of the years since 1955 skewed perspective?

100% I thought the winters sucked because we never got snow days (except for 1978) and precious few big snows, but I think we had more days with snow on the ground, the ponds were safe for skating, etc. Even with changeovers, more of them had snow remaining after it refroze than has been the case this century. Not to say that there haven't always been some epic washouts, but I remember some of those genuinely sucky winters as being more wintry,