NorthShoreWx
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Everything posted by NorthShoreWx
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Most places in this region are going to have above freezing max Ts on Monday. Maybe 40⁰ in NYC area. Temps in the wee hours are rising ahead of the Arctic front.
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Driving home around 9PM last night on the LIE in eastern Nassau County we encountered a blizzard of salt. It continued until we passed the spreader which was salting the highway for some unknown reason. This was traditional rock salt, not brine.
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No dustings here, but I did see a few sorry looking wet flakes mixed in with a quick shower that passed through around 8:30 this morning.
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Winter cancelled/uncancelled banter 25/26
NorthShoreWx replied to Rjay's topic in New York City Metro
The last snowplow blade: -
Winter cancelled/uncancelled banter 25/26
NorthShoreWx replied to Rjay's topic in New York City Metro
Well said. Didn't realize this board was around 100 years ago. And we still have some original members -
So almost half of the years since 1955 skewed perspective?
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100% I thought the winters sucked because we never got snow days (except for 1978) and precious few big snows, but I think we had more days with snow on the ground, the ponds were safe for skating, etc. Even with changeovers, more of them had snow remaining after it refroze than has been the case this century. Not to say that there haven't always been some epic washouts, but I remember some of those genuinely sucky winters as being more wintry,
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I just remembered that I bared my soul on this 15 or 20 years ago on my website. The page is still there. Some of this will probably have changed (and the MS office versions definitely have), but it's a reasonable representation of my unsound methods: https://www.northshorewx.com/Utilities/ClimateTemplates.html
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That would work, but then I would have to continually manually update formulas in many columns in multiple worksheets with the hardcoded number of years. The summary, average and record sheets already require a fair amount of exactly that each year. I'm sure there's a better (less manual) way but I always seem to have higher priorities. I use the NY standard "T". It also stands for Tariff
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Total rainfall here was 1.21" ending as a brief period of non-accumulating light snow after midnight. The difference between the 4" gage and the ambient was significant; 1.21" in the bucket vs 1.51" with the Ambient. 1.21" stands. If it had been all snow, that would have been some nasty wet slop
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I have that problem with the excel files I maintain for my climate records. For my monthly snowfall summary ( https://www.northshorewx.com/ClimateData/SmithtownDailySnowfall.pdf ) I have a 0 for months where there were traces so that the averages don't get messed up (excluding October and May where the average is 0). I keep sheets with the daily data including traces, but I can't calculate an average value for a given date (e.g., December 3) because of all the years that have a trace on that date. As a result, the difference between the actual average seasonal snowfall and the sum of the daily averages for the season in excel is significant; 36.2" vs 41.0"
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TLDR: Yes, that's what I would do. To my knowledge, but with low confidence, there is still the "greatest depth in 24 hours" thing. There's so much noise and conflicting guidance on the web, including between different NWS pages, that its near impossible for us mortals to be definitive. Plus, there's different standards for airports/ASOS sites and other users. Not sure if COCORAHS, coops, mesonets, and spotters get the same guidance either. And then there's the measure only at set times sites (cue cpcantmeasuresnow). It's mayhem. I've gone back to resetting at phase changes or between unusual events like separate snowfalls in the morning and evening. Just seems like common sense to me. Otherwise, I do wipe the board at midnight (once per day). I'm amenable to updating my methodology if someone can convincingly show that I'm not doing it correctly.
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I think the Dec 1 - 10 mean and median calcs are off. Eyeballing the list, they should be in the 3" range.
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A lick and a promise from the departing storm. It's snowing. 34.7⁰ I'd play it up like some kind of cosmic irony, but I thought this would happen.
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1.38" from the ambient, but it's still raining here.
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Last year was an exception, but that torch thing has been amazingly consistent most Decembers recently.
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A Dec 14 - 17 warmup would be an improvement on the annual Dec 22 - 25 torch.
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I just took a walk while it was still dry out. Smells like rain. 39⁰
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Looks like some light OES (or freezing drizzle) in the southerly flow, mostly near and east of the CT/RI border. Maybe a few snowflakes, but illustrates the wind direction nicely.
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I asked AI to predict the December weather based on this thread. Not sure how/if it weights posts, but it said everything is going to suck forever and then we'll die. In my own experience, there is close to zero correlation between these threads and actual mid to long term outcomes one way or the other (except for potentially the dying part). But at least it's entertaining. The next two weeks should cool the local sea surface temperatures (high confidence).
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If we have to replicate that period, could we include a 1978 and 1996 in the mix?
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Ambient 2902 is at 0.46" and counting, but it tends to run slightly high.
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ISP will probably finish November with a positive temperature departure.
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12z NAM snow totals look reasonable for the coast.
