NorthShoreWx

You might be right. I'm saying what I think will be the after effect of it it in a few days. There's more than one way to get there. When it comes to forecasting snow amounts and tricky p-types, I'm a bit of a snowflake

I'm usually reluctant to do forecasts because I am not schooled in forecasting...unless I am very confident in the forecast. Here is my high confidence forecast: In a few days the north shore of LI will look like it had 14" of snow a few days ago. 13/-3 now

That very 80s.

I've been finding today that adding 3 hours to his model start times is about right for here. I still appreciate the posts.

It's within the realm of possibility, but if I was a betting man (which I am not because that is verboten in this thread ) I would bet against it for at least 90% of the island.

Downhill in teh Catskills will be great. I'm looking for some nice skiing in the woods on LI. I'm not one to stick to the trails.

That's the one thing that will ruin the skiing for me. Sleet is fine; punching through crust sucks.

There is going to be 1 - 1.5" of LE region wide, all of it frozen (except maybe the Jersey shore and that whole area of dixie). This will be the most wintry week we have had in years, and it will look and feel it. Should be pretty cool. I'm waxing up my BC skis.

Slim chance of that. I'll take the under.

15° here. The dewpoint is -6°! Todays min/max was 10/18. I was tempted to start a separate obs thread for tomorrow, but I figured one of the kids would want to do that. They like that. It's like when we let them put the envelope in the collection plate at church.

I can still hear the music that went with that.

Orient Point is at the same latitude as Ossining or Bridgeport.

Seems like a lawsuit generator if there is a ridiculous measurement reported by the conservancy.

I'm not sure everything melts in that melt layer. 50mb is enough, but it looks like no more than 1⁰C. OTOH, I'm not sure how much is even falling into that layer. I'm thinking that's a mix, including some fairy crappy snowflakes from below 775mb.

If it shows a big snow now, I will ride it.

They are a lot closer to the GOM, which is a source for us too in this event. Atlantic not that big a deal until the coastal gets going

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 948 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A NOR-EASTER WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING ON FRIDAY. A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY BUILDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/... AS OF 9 AM...A BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 6 INCHES PER HOUR HAS OVERSPREAD COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION...COLLOCATED WITH AN INTENSE FRONTOGENETIC BAND LIFTING NORTH FROM CENTRAL NJ AND OFF THE OCEAN. REPORTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES HAVE BEEN COMING INTO THE OFFICE UNDER THIS BAND. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST...RESULTING IN NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THIS HEAVY SNOW BAND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT THROUGH 11 AM...COMBINED WITH 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS...WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. AROUND 1 FT OF SNOW LIKELY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THIS BAND. AT THE SAME TIME...WATCHING TRANSITION LINE TO SLEET AND RAIN CREEPING UP THE COAST...CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF LI/NYC. THIS SHOULD START WORKING INTO THE SHORELINE OF LI/NYC BY AROUND 9 AM...AND THEN GRADUALLY PROGRESSING NORTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING. CHANGEOVER LINE WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT TRIES TO PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL FRONTOGENETIC BAND IS NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON. OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS DRY SLOT WORKING NORTH THROUGH THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD WORK INTO LI/NYC AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE NJ BY AROUND MIDDAY...AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERY PRECIP EXPECTED UNDER THIS DRY SLOT FOR REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...UNTIL DEFORMATION BANDING/INSTABILITY PRECIP STARTS WORKING IN FROM THE SW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN THEEVENING. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE TIMING OF CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN SETS UP REMAINS A WILD CARD...BUT EARLY INDICATION ARE THAT IT MAY SET UP A BIT FARTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM SHOWS A ROBUST AXIS OF PCPN WITH OVER A HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE TNGT. FIRST CHCS WITH THETAE ADVECTION...SECOND ROUND WITH H5 LOW PASSING OVER THE CWA. WINDS STILL ON TRACK FOR 45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS ERN ZONES WITH A 970S LOW NEAR MARTHAS VINEYARD AT 6Z FRI. ISOLD HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTN WITH A 60 KT NELY LLJET AT H925.

North Shore local jack, although NWNJ/OC did even better. We had over a foot followed by a little freezing rain and a bonus inch on the backend. South shore flipped to plain rain.

That might have been around January 8 94

It might still be a back and forth. The solid slam the door, straight-line "sleet front" on some of the models isn't likely to manifest that way. Most of the p-type graphics don't even have a representation of mixing. Some of the soundings I looked at were brutal, but others had a warm nose that looked too cold and too shallow to melt anything. It'll sleet, but that will be fine.

The fun will be in seeing what actually happens and comparing it to all this model variation. My preference is the big snow, but enjoy whatever happens and don't look at Boston until the storm is over.

Sounds like it's averaging every post about it that has ever appeared in this forum. A bit of circular reasoning going on?

Nice. My son will enjoy it.

How much for Medford? But seriously, how much for Medford?

That would be greater than the streak of 16 days in 1961 (Streak ended during a 17" snowstorm on February 4). NYC will need to stay <32 through 2/9 to break that record. Sidenote: from the February 3-4, 1961 storm on the north shore of LI: https://www.northshorewx.com/19610204.html Addendum: The woman in the doorway is my mom. The girl is my cousin. Before my time. Paul Kocin used this photo in a slide show he gave at an old EUSWX conference.