NorthShoreWx

It's all or nothing on the pretty pictures. I have seen output that shows mixed precip, but that isn't great either.

Montauk is getting raked right now. Mix line is approaching them:

Still bouncing between mostly sleet and mostly snow mix here. More snow at the moment. Crappy flakes but enough that viz is down to about 1/4 mile. Maybe a few survived a trip through the warm nose, but I think most of the snow is forming below 800mb. Not quite snizzle, but very fine and a lot of them and it is definitely accumulating. The temperature which was steadily rising all day reached 21, but that has reversed and we are now a hair under 20. North of the sound is looking very good, even if they get a little mix soon right along the shore.

Mix line in Suffolk County is showing up on BOX radar now: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=BOX-N0C-1-12-100-usa-rad

I measured 9.2" at 2:45 pm. I didn't wipe the boards, but placed another. It will be interesting to see the comparison. It's pretty cool watching the visibility fluctuate as the snow/sleet mix fluctuates.

Snow/sleet mix now. I am canceling winter. Up to 19°

It'll probably be a back and forth for a while once it starts, especially on the north shore,

8.0" as of 2 pm, so no 2"/hour so far, but 1.5"/hour ain't bad (3" in the past 2 hours). Still violently regurgitating snow here at 2:20 pm 17.6°/dp 15.7°

That was never in doubt.

Easily. We did 1.5"/hour rates before the viz dropped to where it is now (about 1/8 mile). Temp is up to 15.3° ...sun angle coming into play

Primary is too strong relative to the coastal low. OTOH, that same map showed the primary in southern Indiana a couple of hours ago. Not sure what to make of that.

CC radar shows a mix line. It's not a solid sleet front. Parts of it advance and then wash out. We could potentially hang on for another 3 or 4 hours here. That might be enough to get us to a foot. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=OKX-N0C-1-12-100-usa-rad

6.5" as of 1:05pm. 1.5" last hour. Snowing even harder now. 15°

By all means do!

5" in Smithtown as of 12pm. Was 3" at 10 am, so 1"/hour since. Heavy snow and 14°. Wind is now picking up and there is snow blowing off the roofs.

Need the new low to deepen more than the primary (soon) and for the primary to open up. Still lots of S-SW flow in the mid levels. That and stray a little east of the forecast like you said. So far, the modeling is too slow and a little too west with the secondary, but stranger things have happened.

For however little it's worth, the 12z TT 3k NAM clown map shows easily over 12" on LI. We'll see how the sleet affects that.

Looks the same on CoD site. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=DIX-N0C-1-24-100-usa-rad

P&C here is 8 - 14"

Plenty of indications that the mid level warmth makes faster progress to our west. Could see it flipping to sleet up in OC (if it gets that far) before it does here. This is shown on some of the mesos and borne out down on the Delmarva vs NoVa. We just need to hang on long enough. Might be able to swing a snow-sleet mix until very close to the end, which is looking like a little freezing drizzle. I'm not sure the difference between worst case and best case is all that much from this vantage point. Should be a fun day. 12⁰ with light snow here atm. Eyeballing between 2 and 3 inches. We have had a couple of heavy bursts.

That's a mix

Find out what the guys from the Central Park Conservancy are betting.

It's cold coast to coast except a small part of the southeast (mainly Florida). I don't recall seeing that.

Oh man, Jeb is getting old? Say it ain't so.

12⁰ Snow Snow began about 5:40 Fighting sun angle. We shall overcome.