NorthShoreWx

In other news, as last nights storm marches inexorably towards Bermuda, the 312 hour GFS says be very afraid. Who is starting the storm thread? Like any good unhinged lunatic, I'm going skiing. See ya later.

We do...but I'm not convinced that is what we saw last night.

Was the snow off the ocean really OES...or was it the IVT?

Smithtown, NY 5.3" (13.0" season total, 28.4" calendar year 2025)

It is what it is. First heavy band was most of the storm so far.

North Smithtown, NY, 12AM S- 26/24 12/26 snowfall through midnight 4.3"

We had 3.2" an hour ago. Probably close to 4" now. 23/21

That band is narrow, but moving slowly east. If it stalls someone just to the east will get clobbered. Snow is much lighter here now. 22/19

Started at 5:17. 1.3" as of 6:02 (45 minutes). That's 2"/hour. Looks like the rate will lessen a bit though. 21.7/18.7

First wee flurries in Smithtown, 5:17pm 26/9

Snow recently began in BGM. CC looks like mixing might be occurring to their west. 25/8 here. I'm gonna go burn off some of the Christmas cheer while the trails are still dry.

Decembers over the past 30 years on average haven't been great, but they've had their moments. Here are the snowiest Decembers and the biggest December snowfalls for north Smithtown, NY Rank Year (Dec) Snowfall 1 2003 20.4 2 2009 20.1 3 1995 15.9 4 2000 13.9 5 2002 13.5 6 2010 12.7 7 2008 12.4 8 2017 10.2 9 2013 7.8 10 2025 7.7 11 2020 7.1 12 2004 6.5 13 2019 5.6 14 2005 5.1 15 2016 4.2 16 2007 4.0 17 2024 2.9 18 1998 2.2 19 1997 1.6 20 2014 1.5 21 2012 1.2 22 1996 0.7 23 2022 0.6 24 2021 0.4 25 1999 0.2 26 2015 0.1 27 2001 0.0 28 2006 0.0 29 2011 0.0 30 2018 0.0 31 2023 0.0 Average 5.7 Maximum 20.4 Median 4.0 December Snowfalls 4" + 12/19-20/2009 17.0 12/5-6/2003 15.5 12/26-27/2010 12.0 12/19-21/1995 11.3 12/30/2000 11.0 12/14/2025 7.6 12/19-20/2008 7.3 12/5/2002 7.2 12/16-17/2020 6.7 12/25/2002 6.3 12/14/2003 4.8 12/26-27/2004 4.1 12/14/2013 4.0

I'm going 6 - 10. Someone within 50 or 60 miles of here gets a foot. Same T/TD here.

Someone gonna get buried. In 24 hours we'll know who. Best chance is OC north of 17/84, but not ruling out on LI.

Thanks, same to you. FWIW, it still looks like we stay on the all snow side of the region, although we both been through this rodeo before. I always thought it would be great to start the winter with a major sleet bomb and then keep piling snowfalls on top of it (the XC skier in me). One can dream.

This will probably turn out pretty well. Even for the places that get a lot of sleet, it's gonna be the best sleet evah! Merry Christmas, happy festivus, happy St. Swithin's Day, what ever Stokes yer snowblower.

Merry Christmas Anthony...and congratulations!

Radar looks really lit now to our west and northwest, but I can't find any evidence of anything reaching the ground in NY or PA.

So, is Friday night's storm going to hit Bermuda Saturday night?

That one was followed by 70⁰ weather a couple of days later. Edit: I see I'm not the only one around here with a good memory.

Haven't dug into any soundings, but I suspect near the northeast edge of the heavy band will do quite well with ratios. Once you get away from the good lift, the cold won't do much for ratios.

Perversely, I think that definition makes me upstate.

I went to college in the Bronx and my uncle in Brooklyn used to ask me, "how are things upstate?".

Everything north of Spuyten Duyvil is upstate, right?

I'll check it out. I haven't had TWC in over 2 years. I thought I'd miss it, but I didn't.