NorthShoreWx
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Everything posted by NorthShoreWx
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2.3" snow total in Smithtown. 0.52" liquid equivalent, all frozen or freezing. Max T was 31.6⁰
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That feature (warm layer) has been consistent on the NAM over several model runs. The NAM surface temperatures bounced around a bit, which was significant.
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Meanwhile, snow has changed to freezing rain all the way into southern Maine. Temp is down to 29.6° here as of 4pm. Today's max was 31.6° at 3:15pm (45 minutes ago). Wind has picked up and droplets are now hitting the windows on the west side of the house instead of on the east side.
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Don't need a model to know that. I've seen this situation many times where snow ends as rain but the temperatures fail to budge above freezing and I don't recall it ever not ending as a period of snow. Whether its a coating on the ice or another inch, it's inevitable.
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NAM should have stuck to its guns. It was showing us not getting above freezing (or barely getting above freezing) in yesterdays runs before it lost the plot overnight. As for my 4", not looking good. 31.2° here with some occasional light freezing rain. Been stuck between 31.1° and a max of 31.4° for a few hours. Not the most efficient ice accretions, but its telling that the snow in the trees hasn't budged after several hours of rain.
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Still 31 here with freezing rain. There is some ice accretion on branches, but some is running off. I think if a degree colder there'd be a lot more ice. The snow is actually softening. It stuck easily to the pavement at first but other than a cold surface from yesterdays temperatures which stayed in the 20's, the ground is not frozen. Some of that heat appears to be coming back to the surface. FYI, We were at 2000'+ in the Catskills on Sunday doing some shelter building drills and although there was several inches of snow on the ground, the ground was still not frozen. That's nuts for the Catskills in mid January. We were near the 2nd Colgate Lake parking area for those familiar with the area.
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This might be helpful for some people: https://nsidc.org/learn/cryosphere-glossary/whiteout
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Plow made a few passes here in the past hour. They only salted overnight. 31° FZR
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That's bright banding from mixed precip PVD and points south and east.
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As of midnight, 0.5" snowfall. Temperature is 25. Pretty, but painfully light snow continues. Accumulating 1 or 2 tenths of an inch per hour. To put that in perspective, the liquid equivalent of this light fluff is probably a trace per hour.
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25⁰ with light snow in N Smithtown. Only about a quarter inch on the ground, but it's covering everything and looks nice. The max temp this afternoon briefly touched 29 and the snow began covering the street from the first flake.
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Suddenly it's showing 1"+ qpf for the twin forks. Not inspiring to see that doubled at the last minute.
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First sparse hint of tiny snowflakes spotted here a moment ago at 8:41. Temp is 27.8
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But for a good part of that quarter inch of freezing rain along the north shore, the NAM forecast soundings shows a 50 - 100mb deep sub freezing layer (decreasing over time) from the surface up*. I forget the magic numbers, but I'd imagine that some of that fzr would be sleet. 3k NAM does eventually get to an obvious fzr sounding and then a wee bit of plain drizzle before things cool again. I'll take a stand and go with 4" in my neighborhood. How much it packs down with the phase shifts is TBD. *Caveat is I'm extrapolating from the skew-Ts on the free TT site. Hard to be precise on some of that fine stuff.
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That's what I remember. here's a sat pic:
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https://northshorewx.com/19990225SnowTotals.html NEW YORK... 1130 AM EST FRI FEB 26 1999 THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT. MONTAUK SUFFOLK 13.5 730 AM EAST HAMPTON SUFFOLK 10.0 700 AM SHINECOCK SUFFOLK 8.5 730 AM BRIDGEHAMPTON SUFFOLK 8.5 700 AM ORIENT POINT SUFFOLK 8.0 700 AM NWS OFFICE BROOKHAVEN SUFFOLK 6.4 700 AM PATCHOGUE SUFFOLK 5.9 700 AM RIDGE SUFFOLK 5.0 730 AM MOUNT SINAI SUFFOLK 4.7 700 AM FARMINGVILLE SUFFOLK 4.6 800 AM SOUTH SETAUKET SUFFOLK 4.5 800 AM RONKONKOMA SUFFOLK 4.0 700 AM ISLIP SUFFOLK 3.0 700 AM CENTERPORT SUFFOLK 2.8 800 AM FARMINGDALE NASSAU 2.0 700 AM OCEANSIDE NASSAU 1.8 600 AM NORTH MASSAPEQUA NASSAU 1.5 700 AM LA GUARDIA AP QUEENS 2.0 700 AM KENNEDY AP QUEENS 1.0 700 AM GRAVES END BROOKLYN KINGS 1.2 800 AM CENTRAL PARK NEW YORK 1.5 700 AM WHITE PLAINS WESTCHESTER 1.3 700 AM
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3k NAM soundings keep my location at or below freezing. Snow, then some sleet, a few hours of mixed/freezing drizzle, then back to snow. About .5" liquid on the NAM. Up to now, we've only had 1.2" of snow this season.
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Good point. .8 before midnight and 1.0 afterwards and we see headlines about the snow drought ending. The exact same snowfall starting a few minutes earlier and the headlines are the opposite. Where'd they put that old face palm emoji?
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Nice photos Don. I hope your house wasn't flooded. Ended with 1.11" rainfall here.
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- flooding rains
- damaging wind? squalls?
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