michsnowfreak

White Christmases havent really been affected away from the east coast. And the east coast has seen its share of early season snowstorms over the past few decades. Seems flukey to me. Since 2000... New York City: 1 of 23 Christmases white Providence: 2 of 23 Christmases white Albany: 7 of 23 Christmases white Pittsburgh: 7 of 23 Christmases white Portland: 9 of 23 Christmases white Chicago: 9 of 23 Christmases white Cleveland: 10 of 23 Christmases white Detroit: 12 of 23 Christmases white Buffalo: 15 of 23 Christmases white Minneapolis: 16 of 23 Christmases white Burlington: 17 of 23 Christmases white For Boston, from 1923-1944, only 1 Christmas was white. Though its happened several times, Boston has never had more than 2 White Christmases in a row.

National snowcover is 15.4%. Last Christmas, 53.0% of the nation was covered in snow.

Notable Christmas Events in Detroit's records 1871 -- 4.2” of snow fell on Dec 22nd 1882 -- 6.1” of snow fell on Dec 23rd 1884 -- 4.2” of snow fell on Christmas Eve. 1886 -- 6.5” of snow fell on Christmas Eve. 1889 -- 61 degrees on Christmas Eve accompanied by thunderstorms! 1895 -- 59 degrees on Christmas is followed by 6.5” of snow the next day 1901 -- A Norman Rockwell Christmas scene with "moist snow" falling late Christmas Eve into Christmas Day, with 0.62" liquid, and depth of snow 5.5". Snow "adhered" to everything. Unfortunately, a high of 41 degrees melted much of the snow. 1915 -- Snow began around sunset Christmas Eve and continued into Christmas day, totaling 8.0”. Some rain mixed in at the end but did little to mar the scene. 1929 -- The snow depth is 12” inches, the 2nd deepest amount of snow on Christmas day in Detroit's records (behind 1951). This is thanks to a 13.8” storm on December 18/19th. 1931 to 1933 -- Yuck! Three consecutive Christmas Eve's topped 50 degrees (57, 57, 50) though only one (1932) topped 50 on Christmas Day. 1945 -- Late on Christmas Eve and into Christmas morning an ice storm occurred, with the icy pavements causing almost impossible travel & walking conditions. The rainfall of 1.16” is a record for Dec 25. 1951 -- After a deep snowcover to begin with, heavy snow falls Christmas day, heaviest in the morning, dropping 6.2” and bringing the snow depth to 13”, the deepest White Christmas in Detroit's record. We paid for it as the next 6 Christmases were not white. 1957 -- A very rainy Christmas week. 0.94" fell on the 18th, 0.18" on the 19th, 1.00" on the 20th, and 0.99" on the 25th. All wet, no white. 1964 -- After six straight White Christmases, a warm and wet one. 1965 -- A very heavy rainstorm set in Christmas Eve, flooding area basements. After parts of the Detroit area got up to 4” of rain (3.75" at DTW, 2.50" at City Airport), the rain turned to snow on Christmas day. Only 0.5” of snow fell but winds of 50 mph caused blowing snow. 1973 –- Christmas morning started with a heavy 7” snowcover but all day rain & temps in 40s dropped snowcover to 2” slush by evening. 1974 -- Though it was 40 degrees on Christmas Eve, the snow depth was still 6” from the 19.3”-inch storm of the 1st (and falls after that). 1975 -- Though the snow depth of 2” inches was good for a White Christmas, a storm hit on the 26th dropping 6.3” more of snow. 1979 -- A wet & warm Christmas. 1.58” of rain fell Christmas Eve & Day with temps falling from the low 50s through the 40s. 1980 -- After a fresh 3-inch” snowfall Christmas Eve, bitter cold set in with a low of -8F on Christmas morn. 1982 – A record 64 degrees in Detroit is accompanied by thunderstorms. 1983 -- Mother Nature payback. The COLDEST Christmas one year after the WARMEST Christmas! High/low 4F/-10F. 1990 -- Fresh from a 5-inch” fall on the 23rd, the 1990s starts with the only White Christmas of 1”+ of the decade (tho a Trace was on the ground in 1993, 1995, & 1996). 2000 – Detroit had 6” of snow on the ground, but 15-18” covered the ground from the northern suburbs towards Flint. 2002 -- Perfectly timed Christmas snowstorm. Snow began around 10:30 p.m. Christmas Eve and ended early afternoon Christmas Day, totaling 6.4” at Detroit. 2003 -- For the second year in a row, snow fell Christmas Eve & Day. Though only 1.7” fell at Detroit, up to 3” fell nearby. 2004 -- A cold, white Christmas. After Detroit saw 8.9” of snow on the 22nd, the low dipped to -4F Christmas morning. 2008 -- Christmas Eve rain atop a foot snowpack froze into a glittery 7” snow crust for Christmas Day. 2013 –- The official snow depth of a trace on Christmas morn was a bit or irony in the historic 2013-14 winter, as snow buried the ground nearly constantly from early December to late March, with one of the only times of scattered depth being the Christmas to New Years period. 2015 –- A springlike Christmas Week saw temps hit the 50s daily from the 21st-25th. The high was 58F on Christmas Eve & 50F Christmas Day. 2017 –- A 4.5” snowfall hit during the afternoon & evening Christmas Eve, then on Christmas day, snow squalls dropped another inch with blowing snow, falling temps, and bitter wind chills. 2020 –- Snow developed around 10:30pm Christmas Eve and continued throughout Christmas Day, dropping 3.0” at Detroit. 2022 – With a few inches of drifty snow already down, more snow developed late Christmas Eve and lasted through Christmas Morning, dropping another 2.4” at Detroit and bringing the depth up to 4”.

You guys are talking about a White Christmas, I had just looked a bunch of historical odds on this. I have mentioned this before, but no idea why Boston doesnt do snow depth anymore since 2003. Stations in the box nws are literally the ONLY ones I can find anywhere (of places that get snow) that dont do snow depth. White Christmases in Detroit are pretty much 50/50 (officially 47%), and the last 20 years saw 10 white, 10 not...2022, 2020, 2017, 2016, 2012, 2010, 2008, 2005, 2004, 2003. Bostons historical probability shows 1 in 4 Christmases should be white, yet they have only probably had 2 in the past 20 years (based on what you guys said). It seems more flukey than anything that snowfall increased and white christmases disappeared during the 2000s/10s. Midwest/Great Lakes Marquette – 95% (1961-2022) International Falls – 95% (1948-2022) Sault Ste Marie – 94% (1931-2022) Alpena – 79% (1916-2022) Minneapolis – 72% (1899-2022) Green Bay – 68% (1948-2022) Grand Rapids – 64% (1903-2022) Dubuque – 57% (1896-2022) Flint –-- 56% (1921 – 2022) Lansing – 55% (1863-2022) Milwaukee – 50% (1893-2022) Detroit – 47% (1900-2022) Toledo –- 46% (1893-2022) Chicago – 45% (1901-2022) Cleveland – 42% (1893-2022) Fort Wayne – 40% (1909-2022) Omaha – 37% (1948-2022) Indianapolis – 28% (1896-2022) Columbus – 27% (1948-2022) Kansas City – 21% (1893-2022) Louisville – 15% (1900-2022) Northeast Caribou – 93% (1940-2022) Burlington – 74% (1896-2022) Portland (ME) – 59% (1893-2022) Buffalo – 58% (1893-2022) Albany – 42% (1938-2022) Pittsburgh – 31% (1948-2022) Boston – 24% (1891-2003) New York City – 14% (1912-2022) Philadelphia – 13% (1893-2022) Washington DC – 10% (1893-2022) Mountain West Salt Lake City – 52% (1948-2022) Denver – 38% (1921-2022)

We all know this year will not be kind to those looking for a White Christmas, but here are the historical probabilities for some places. It is interesting to note that the memories of those who claim Christmas was always white are almost always...wrong. Locally I find it interesting that no matter how harsh or mild December was, White Christmases in the Detroit area have remained relatively steady (a 50/50 shot basically) regardless of the month of December's overall weather. 10 of the past 20 were White. The worst decade for White Christmases locally was the 1990s. Midwest/Great Lakes Marquette – 95% (1961-2022) International Falls – 95% (1948-2022) Sault Ste Marie – 94% (1931-2022) Alpena – 79% (1916-2022) Minneapolis – 72% (1899-2022) Green Bay – 68% (1948-2022) Grand Rapids – 64% (1903-2022) Dubuque – 57% (1896-2022) Flint –-- 56% (1921 – 2022) Lansing – 55% (1863-2022) Milwaukee – 50% (1893-2022) Detroit – 47% (1900-2022) Toledo –- 46% (1893-2022) Chicago – 45% (1901-2022) Cleveland – 42% (1893-2022) Fort Wayne – 40% (1909-2022) Omaha – 37% (1948-2022) Indianapolis – 28% (1896-2022) Columbus – 27% (1948-2022) Kansas City – 21% (1893-2022) Louisville – 15% (1900-2022) Northeast Caribou – 93% (1940-2022) Burlington – 74% (1896-2022) Portland (ME) – 59% (1893-2022) Buffalo – 58% (1893-2022) Albany – 42% (1938-2022) Pittsburgh – 31% (1948-2022) Boston – 24% (1891-2003) New York City – 14% (1912-2022) Philadelphia – 13% (1893-2022) Washington DC – 10% (1893-2022) Mountain West Salt Lake City – 52% (1948-2022) Denver – 38% (1921-2022)

Back to the weather...all ensembles in agreement that the warmth starts to scour out bigtime after Christmas, so while Im never ready to rush Christmas, it will certainly be nice to turn the page to January weather-wise. This December will go down with 1877, 1881, 1889, & 2015 in the shit category.

Few things. #1) Where can you browse toronto's climate data online? I really can't find non-US stations or at least detailed data of them. And they need to get with it (updating the normals) as it's almost 2024 haha #2) If you REALLY have been following, you would know nobodys denying climate change, they're mocking a troll that everyone is tired of. Have you ever actually seeing some of the things he has said? Most of them arent even acknowledged or replied to, they are so outlandish and ridiculous. He doesn't like stats. Just will say your in denial if you don't think Toronto winters will warm 30° in 20 years. #3) funny you mention having warm Decembers close together. 3 of Detroit's top 4 warmest Decembers occurred in 1877, 1881, 1889.

Beijing saw an all-time December record low of -6F (previous record -1F). Last winter was the worst for tree damage in memory here. Several wet snowstorms caused havoc galore to to the trees. Hoping for more powder this year, but any snow is better than no snow!

Chicago averages around 20F colder in winter than Atlanta, so thats one thing to keep in mind. And averages are just that, averages. If youre new to this region genuinely trying to understand how the weather in Chicago works, the LAST person you need to listen to is a troll. Strong El Nino Decembers are about the worst winter weather (for cold/snow lovers) we see in this region. A more favorable MJO may have given you a few more thread the needle slushes and a few more murky gray days with no diurnal temp swing, but it would still suck. Bottom line...once the new year sets in, changes are afoot. To what extent remains to be seen, but this garbage pattern is flushing away. Februarys have often been the harshest month of winter the past few decades, and that may happen again this year. Once we get into mid-winter, in most patterns you worry about storm tracks more than blues and reds on a temp map this far north, unless its an all out torch (like now), which no one is showing for Jan/Feb. Obviously in the south where you are from, seeing blues on a temp map in mid winter is eye candy, but this far north, it can sometimes mean suppression.

Its coming about as expected for a strong Nino. Some snow/cold shots in Oct/Nov, a terrible Dec...the rest of the season tbd. The mild weather gives you plenty of time to ensure the green paint job on your grass is on point for when the cold hits Jan-Mar.

For sure. Never adding any actual substance or weather discussion, just trolling away & spouting nonsense since he lives in a 4 seasons humid continental climate rather than the tropical one he never will.

Not sure how long you've lived in Chicago, however, you don't need unseasonable cold in midwinter to get snow. Threading the needle is more for atrocious pattern's like the one we are in now.

Flurries and snow showers all day but they melted as fell here. Some heavier squalls dropped anywhere from a coating to a half inch though nearby. Have a bit of snow dust in the cracks now at night, but not enough to call it a tenth. Some northern suburbs had 1 to 2 inches, with 2.2" in White Lake. Flint had 1.5", DTW 0.1"

That winter saw a big early season snowstorm in Nov, a torch in Dec, and more up and down in Jan though several cold snaps and snows. I don't recall what models had. It's enough to keep them straight now, nevermind what they showed 8 years ago lol.

This year we had snow on Halloween, snow Thanksgiving weekend....and assumably no snow Christmas week.

Just curious. Are you going by longterm average or 30 year normals? (Didn't know if they did 30 year normals in Canada lol). In Detroit, the 1991-2020 normals show a clear trend of less snow in Dec and more in Jan/Feb. I know the long term climate record had more in Dec and less in Jan/Feb than current norms. Nov- 1.9, Dec- 8.9, Jan- 14.0, Feb- 12.5, Mar- 6.2, Apr 1.5

To add to this, around this time in 2005 and 2016 we were enjoying a postcard perfect Christmas season full of snow and cold. What happened after New Year's each of those years sucked. Weather patterns do change

Exactly. it's so all relative. and I have to agree, the minor changes will obviously affect the more southern climates (although they still will be able to get occasional snow storms), but it actually may be a help more so than a hindrance to places here in the north. A little bit more moisture can go a long way. In addition to numerous mild winters of yesteryear I discussed above, there were also a handful of winters scattered about in the earlier days of the climate record that had cold temperatures but were very dry and anemic for snowfall. You rarely see that anymore. In fact, there are some stories from winters of the late 1700s and early 1800s, before any official climate records existed, that would tell stories of brutally cold winters in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, but with very light snowfall. Last winter I don't need to tell you was grossly warmer than average. but we still got either side of 40 inches of snow in the Detroit area, in a winter that is far warmer than any progged increase to our avg temp. Because of storm tracks. Another thing slightly warmer winters do is they don't shut the Great Lakes in ice so quickly (how we got so many snowstorms in the ice locked 2013-14 winter is beyond me!) When there is open water, not only do you get Lake effect snow, but every system that crosses the lakes gets a boost from it. Especially here away from the real snow belt, the words "lake enhanced" are music to my ears when any little piece of synoptic energy crosses the lake. Much like the warmer ocean waters can really juice a noreaster for you guys. Bottom line. climate change exists. But so do unfavorable weather patterns. Don't do mother nature the disservice of always crediting one over the other.

Check out this satirical article from the March 4, 1954 Detroit Free Press. It was published the day after a snowstorm (after a mild winter). Some things never change!

You are very welcome! I've always been fascinated by climate data, the good and the bad. Obviously I'm a winter weather lover, but I have just as much fascination with the terrible winters as the good ones. Because it makes you wonder, geez what happened? Another great thing is I have looked up all of these things in the newspaper. I subscribe to the digital archives for the Detroit Free Press, so I can look at any newspaper since 1837. it's fascinating to see how weather events were covered back in the day. Just like now, anomalous events were certainly covered. The big difference however, is phrases like "where's winter?", "open winter", "winter heatwave" were seen plenty, but you never saw "climate change" as the blame for individual events. Check out this satirical article from the March 4, 1954 Detroit Free Press. It was published the day after a snowstorm hit following a mild winter.

Excellent post and I agree with everything you said. I mean, I know every stat imaginable for Detroit, but with xmacis it's SO easy to run stats for anywhere. I noted to one of my nyc friends that they had 6 consecutive winters in the 1950s with snowfall in the teens inches. An interesting trend I noticed here in those 3 decades (1930s-50s) is whenever you got a decent winter you were absolutely punished the following year with a nightmare. The 1931-32 winter was so warm and rainy that grass was growing, dandelions blooming, and trees budding in January. Only in March did winter pop in. (1881-82 and 1889-90 were other winters with well documented winter flowers blooming in MI due to warmth). 1936-37 is Detroits least snowy winter on record (12.9") and I believe it is Bostons as well. 1940s winters here were mundane as hell (tho not as warm as the 1930s or 50s). In the mild winter of 1948-49, almost all of the winters putrid 13.8" total snow fell in a 10-day period in late Jan/early Feb. 1952-53 holds the distinction of being the only winter on record Detroit didn't see a 3"+ snowdepth. And 1957-58 (a favorite of yours) was a winter of pennies here, mercilessly clawing it's way to an 18" season total, but holds the distinction of being the winter with the smallest "biggest storm" of the season at only 2.1". I mean I could go on, but you get the point. If ANY of the above happened today, i don't think I need to tell you were 100% of the blame would be placed. Hint- it wouldn't be the weather pattern.

Thanks. Although I don't consider it optimism or a stretch to say it's too early to discuss snowfall futility when we have over 85% of our seasonal snowfall statistically to come. Decembers stink this year was seen a mile away and the hope all along was hoping for a few timely threaded needles. But strong nino climo in Dec plus a hostile pacific made a shit December a given. The remainder of the cold season after new years, in my opinion, will be much more dependent on storm tracks and what not rather than worrying about no cold air.

I agree with there being 2 camps, but I would've worded them a little differently than you did. Guess you can put me in the softer acceptance camp. The "everyone is fucked" camp are those who have knee jerk reactions to everything and blame every unusual warm pattern solely on climate change. We literally just had how many harsh winters the previous 2 decades? Now you get a smattering of mild winters and the end is nigh. I know when discussing climate change it's taboo to discuss anything before 1970, but we had plenty of mild snowless winters in the 1930s-1950s. I will say that here in southeast Michigan (and I know you hail originally from Michigan tip), our winters have not warmed as much as on the East Coast. But when it comes to climate change, doesn't any weather enthusiast worry about their own backyard above anything else? I live in an area that is the definition of 4 distinct seasons, and how have my winter's changed? In the last 100 years, I've gained 1° in temperature (all from Dec) and about 5" of snow annually. Do I think some areas of the world are fucked because of climate change? Absolutely. But my area certainly is not one of them, and neither is New England. The biggest irony of all about climate change is that it's something people are supposed to want to change and prevent, but the biggest climate change enthusiasts on this board are the ones who have such an extreme excitement over a warming globe that any slowing or prevention of that would be nothing short of depressing for them.

My thing is, it's just so early. if it was late February and you were staring down futility, I could understand the sentiment (lol but the snow lover in me would not agree, I'd wish for a 1983 spring snowstorm to happen). Detroit's current 30 year average snowfall is 45.0" (which is actually the highest 30 year average on record due to all those good times and the 2000s-10s), and avg to date is 5.5". Which means we have 88% of the snow season to come.

Most winters, even the mildest ones, Chicago will easily see one or several stretches over 3+ days below freezing. Likewise, the chances of an entire month straight below freezing, even in the coldest winters, is extremely rare.