michsnowfreak

Meaning much colder of a pattern than we are now. Temperatures a little colder than normal during the dead of Winter looks good to me. I don't need -30 windchills like we had a Christmas. Just give me cold and snow.

Looking like a turn towards much colder weather in late January is still on track.

Typical media bs What ill bet that hes doing is taking the current mean temperature and applying it to the final January mean temperature

After the expected mild looks of week 1 and 2, week 3-6 of the weeklies look good for bringing winter back.

I would actually say a warning was warranted for the conditions. I was driving in them and it was quite brutal. Most roads had snow rutted much deeper than that, lots of places were 6 to 8" or more because of blowing from in nearby fields and what not Besides think of all the advisories DTW issues for what should be warnings. At the end of the day it's just the public's warning mechanism and nothing more. Also we really have not had much Winter rain in recent years so I can't really complain from that aspect, but I never ever want winter rain to begin with lol.

I agree. I love snow as much more than anyone. And needless to say this Winter outside of Christmas week has been frustrating so far. Just saying I'm not happy with the current weather pattern is an understatement. Some ranting is definitely acceptable, but I just don't get the delusional concept of what is normal.

40 years ago, this December would be a departure of +0.3°. 80 years ago, this December would be a departure of -1.0°. At no point in Chicago's climate record would this December be +2-3°.

I am not a fan of grading winter until it's done. And this is especially early. But id go D. I mean what more can be said that hasn't been lamented over and over about the bad. The good times however were the November 19 arctic front dropping a quick almost 2" snow with below zero wind chills. Then of course Christmas week. Blizzard conditions Dec 23 with -30 wind chills despite only 2.4" of snow there were some impressive drifts. Then waking up to a surprise 2" blanket Christmas morning. So arguable Christmas day was the most winter wonderland day of the season, snow depth of 4-5" with good drifts.

I see your point too. And I said if any winter is ripe for complaining it's this one. But those aren't "my numbers". Those are the official Chicago numbers. Every place goes thru site changes so it is what it is. So the official Chicago numbers show January today is the same or colder than the first half of the 20th century. Our winters OVERALL have been pretty average since 2015. There have been ups and downs. And CERTAINLY frustrating periods. But Chicago was almost -30° in 2019 and had nearly 2 feet of snow on the ground in 2021. Those are clearly wintrier than is typical.

Amen. Actually Detroit was plagued by the cold with low snowfall trend several times in the 1960s. Things changed in the 1970s obviously with snow. Imagine taking a time machine to 1978 or 1979 and analyzing the winters of the past decade (cold cold cold with a few mild). All the talk would be "WOW look at how much warmer winters used to be. This is unprecedented and alarming". Voila let's call for an ice age. I will never take anything seriously that uses the 1970s as all time baseline or even worse, the favorite "since 1970..".

Chicago Winters have actually slightly cooled over the last 100 years. The cold winters of the 1960s and especially 1970s were such an aberration for the entire climate record for everywhere in the Great Lakes temp-wise, I just do not understand how we use that as baseline rather than the long term. Yes, Chicago winters are warmer than they were in the 1960s or 1970s. And they are colder than they were in the 1920s. Or 1930s. Or 1940s. Or 1950s. Yes, Chicago winters are less snowy than they were in the 1960s and 1970s. But they are snowier than they were in the 1920s. Or 1930s. Or 1940. Or 1950s. And by the way all this talk of warm Januarys. 3 of the past 4 Januaries were colder than normal in the lower Great Lakes

This Winter more than ever is good for a good rant, but I still have to call out wrong data. I have no idea where you are getting those figures because they are incorrect. Below are the 30 year normals for January for Chicago since records began. Feel free to fact check them. The aberration is clearly the cold taint of the 1960s and 1970s rather than today's current normal. I don't know how you can look at these numbers and say otherwise. 1881-1910: 23.5 1891-1920: 24.4 1901-1930: 24.9 1911-1940: 25.7 1921-1950: 26.2 1931-1960: 26.3 1941-1970: 24.3 1951-1980: 22.5 1961-1990: 21.7 1971-2000: 22.2 1981-2010: 23.7 1991-2020: 24.2 And if you're gonna compare Chicago to the mid Atlantic you might as well compare them to Marquette. The difference in climate is so drastic to begin with, but in addition the last 6 years Chicago has averaged 38" of snow (which is right around normal) while Washington DC has averaged 7.8" (which is half of their normal).

Yesterday we had the rare chance to go for the 1ﾟdiurnal swing (33/32) at DTW but temps fell late so the actual day was 33/30. Picked up a slushy 0.1" of snow here, 1st measurable of Jan, 8.1" on the season. DTW picked up 0.2" for 7.7" on the season. The last NOT cloudy or mostly cloudy day was December 4th.

Why thank you, I enjoy it lol

If you look close so they weren't really lowered. Just some noise changes.

The 1880s have the most extremes on record Winter wise. There were several bitterly cold winters and several absolute torch winters. The warmest Winter on record by far is 1881-82. The 2010s were both the snowiest and wettest decade on record.

Thanks for analysis as always. You mention February will be a more traditional Nina look with a 1-2 week window of cold as it transitions. Are you implying a mild rest of February? Or a gradient one? February in Nina's used to be mild, however more recently that has not been the case. In fact the last 2 have been rocking with plenty of snow.

For Detroit Avg 50F+ per DJF ...........D....J....F....DJF 1880s - 4 - 2 - 3 - 9 1890s - 3 - 2 - 1 - 6 1900s - 2 - 2 - 1 - 4 1910s - 3 - 1 - 1 - 5 1920s - 2 - 1 - 1 - 4 1930s - 3 - 2 - 3 - 8 1940s - 3 - 2 - 2 - 6 1950s - 3 - 2 - 1 - 7 1960s - 3 - 2 - 1 - 6 1970s - 2 - 1 - 2 - 5 1980s - 3 - 1 - 2 - 6 1990s - 4 - 2 - 3 - 9 2000s - 3 - 2 - 2 - 8 2010s - 4 - 3 - 2 - 10 Avg 40F+ per DJF ...........D....J....F....DJF 1880s - 12 - 07 - 10 - 29 1890s - 11 - 06 - 07 - 24 1900s - 07 - 05 - 05 - 17 1910s - 08 - 07 - 06 - 21 1920s - 10 - 06 - 06 - 21 1930s - 09 - 09 - 08 - 25 1940s - 09 - 06 - 07 - 21 1950s - 10 - 07 - 08 - 25 1960s - 09 - 06 - 07 - 23 1970s - 07 - 05 - 07 - 18 1980s - 10 - 05 - 08 - 24 1990s - 12 - 07 - 11 - 30 2000s - 10 - 07 - 08 - 25 2010s - 13 - 07 - 09 - 25

Thaws have always been a part of Winter. I mean you cannot like them, what winter lover does, but to act like Winter used to be some nonstop land of cold snow and ice and it's now only a brief spit of snow here and there it's completely untrue. Not saying anyone literally says that here but sometimes you get that vibe from certain people and it's laughable because it's so untrue.

That's a very valid point about snow. But also, if you're cold and not getting a lot of snow, people often still refer to it is mild. The last 2 years were not mild winters in the Midwest. Regarding warming over the last 100 years, it depends on location but clearly the East Coast is warming more than the lower Midwest. In fact, the lower Great Lakes show minimal warming although I suspect Chicago's cooling trend is due to location change. Detroit warmed 0.9° Cleveland warmed 0.6° Toledo stayed exactly the same Columbus warmed 0.1° Indianapolis cooled 0.1° Chicago cooled 1.3° Milwaukee warmed 2.0° Minneapolis warmed 2.6° New york city warmed 3.2° Boston warmed 2.6° Buffalo warmed 1.5° Wash DC warmed 2.8° Burlington VT warmed 4.4°

Oh OK. Pretty much Was going by ORD numbers. Which is obviously North of the city I believe. Here, the last 5 snow seasons: 2021-22: slightly above avg 2020-21: slightly above avg 2019-20: avg 2018-19: below avg 2017-18: well above avg. The last 3 winters as a whole ended up right around climo snowwise in Southeast Michigan. The caveat for the previous 2 winters especially was a lot of snow from late January through February, which can be looked at 2 different ways. On the one hand, since such a high percentage of the snow fell during a 5 week period or so, that means there were several periods of suck throughout the season. On the other hand, had everything been climo appropriately dispersed from November through April, there would not have been a period of such fun.

Thanks again. It did sound like a good centralized location.

Thanks! In the vrbo description there was a comment about it being "on the edge of the Huron mountains"

Aren't you near Chicago? Last January and February were both colder than average, February 2021 was way colder than avg with near record snow depth in Chicago, and of course who can forget the record cold snap in 2019. It just seems like when we go through a real shitty time like now, some memories are a little unfair to previous winters lol.

Im staying in Bear Paw (near L'anse) Feb 16-20. How close is that to you or any of those locations?