michsnowfreak

Idk. Its going to be a fun experience but I'm usually not a fan of drifty snow because you get bare spots lol

Exactly. And mood flakes traces don't add in anything, so it's silly to say mood flakes are the saving grace. Everyone gets hits. Everyone gets misses. It's called weather.

So then who in the midwest and northeast has had a good start to this winter? I must have missed it lol. There is no truth to that statement whatsoever. This has been an abnormally slow start to winter everywhere, and for someone from a different area they need to know that. Dec 2020 literally no one but MI was enjoying a decent start, and we were one of the best spots in Dec 2017. Everyone gets hits and misses. If it was true that one area was a void, it would show up in climate data. And it does not.

They don't always end up Northwest. The sure-as-anything nw trend is so 2008. I'm liking 3-6" total. But of course drifting everywhere.

Welcome! Sorry it's been a poor start to your first winter here, but should be fun tomorrow night I to the weekend!

Euro was a good run for Southeast Michigan

DTX even said snowfall amounts are lower confidence than normal for 24 to 36 hours out, I have a feeling they will raise amounts tomorrow and maybe go with a blizzard warning instead of the current winter storm warning.

Getting excited for tomorrow night. Going to be an insane temperature drop as the rain quickly turns to snow with blizzard conditions

Not sure on amounts but still Friday should be a fun winter day. Happy 1st day of Winter today all.

The cold at the end of the polar vortex snowstorm was simply surreal.

Well, we have had plenty of 6-12" storms where 25-30 mph winds give cute drifts...might as well go for the rare 3-6" blizzard with 60+ mph winds.

That particular storm did. It also gave Chicago some near record snow depths in Feb 2021. But for the most part, Detroit has had the better luck the last 3 years.

Hyperbole aside, a nws has a job to do. Dtx and Grr love advisories. They will issue an advisory when it should be a warning and an advisory when a special statement would suffice.

Days since the last blizzard warning (issued by gunshy DTX no less) and a big dog are not one in the same. Since that blizzard warning, we have had multiple double digit snowstorms (including a 17" storm) and the snowiest winter on record. It is entirely plausible to have a blizzard warning with a 2" snowfall. I wonder if they would actually properly issue a blizzard warning if it was not a large snowfall (the publics perfection and actual definition of a blizzard are quite different). They did feb 11 2003

I wouldn't worry too much about extrapolating the 84 hour nam lol.

When is the all important sampling?

8.9" on Dec 22/23, 2004 6.5" on Dec 24/25, 2002 5.4" on Dec 24/25, 2017 3.0" on Dec 24/25, 2020

I'll take the 6z gfs please.

You're welcome! Xmacis is a climate stat dream. You can find data for any period you'd like.

The historical odds of a white Christmas in Toledo are 45%. Since 1874 when records began, Winter has actually COOLED in Toledo by 0.6°. The Dec 25-Jan 5 period has warmed 1° since 1874. The frigid 1970s are a dream come true for the crowd that loves to pump climate change into every article. Starting a dataset in 1970 gives an automatic regression line that's going to be more dramatic because the 1970s winters were so abnormally cold. I've seen it time again and it's laughable. It's not a 30 year average. It's not a 100 year average. It's not a period of record average. A more accurate wording would be "since the coldest time in our climate record, we have warm…"

The rule of thumb is quite simple. We get more frequent snowfalls and they have a higher ceiling for the big storms. This season has not started out particularly "normal" for anyone, but the end result is the same. Everyone wants for their backyard, no matter what the event.

Crazy wrap around on all the models too. Snowing and blowing with temps in the single digits.

Usually strong winds cut ratios. Those are some fun runs though.

I loved that storm. Jackpotted here to boot. 11.5" huge drifts. Blizzard conditions. Again... I'm sure the public considered that a blizzard over February 11th. Just my opinion, blizzard is an overused word. Give me 17" of snow with 25 mph winds on February 1, 2015 over 65 mph wind gusts and blowing snow on February 11, 2003.

Actually there was. I remember very distinctly because this went hand-in-hand with what I'm always harping on. The general public misinterprets the word blizzard. It was February 11th 2003 and the national weather service issued a blizzard warning along the Arctic front. We had 2" of snow on the ground and we got another 1.2" with the front in absolute blizzard conditions. The warning was verified but it was one of those times that the word blizzard is not to be associated with feet of snow. They get blizzard warnings in the plains with no snow falling sometimes.