michsnowfreak

Thanks. And yes for sure. Monthly temp departures in mid winter mean little for snow chances, just have to get the systems/storms.

I definitely won't be participating in that nonsense anymore. I've said my piece. I will, however, continue to engage in weather and weather stats talk. That's my wheelhouse. I've noticed a lot of people are thinking that February once again (last year notwithstanding) will be the most severe month of the winter. How do you feel about that? Not sure how much of standard nino climo plays into that. I've been reading that many indicies are not behaving like a typical nino.

I just commented yesterday how we've had way more sun in november than we had in october. It's all good though great for winterizing, leaf cleanup, and putting up the christmas decorations. Especially with winter looming next week.

Nope https://www.plantmaps.com/interactive-michigan-usda-plant-zone-hardiness-map.php

Quite a few trees that are certainly growable here in michigan died after the winter of 2013-14. In fact, retired met bill deedler talked about seeing tons of dead trees and dead animals in the woods behind his house in spring 2014. Detroit also had 3 separate winters in the past decade where temperatures registered −13 or colder. 4 winters going back to 2009. To put that in perspective, Detroit did not register -13 from 1935 until 1963. Like I said, a climate that has warmed in overall mean temperature does not mean anything for the seasonal extremes that we see in our type of climate.

Let's take one thing at a time. Snow typically falls in Michigan 8 out of the 12 months in any given year. Only JJAS are immune. I'll keep our conifers thank you.

The cold is coming for sure. But any snow/storm threats will be model chaos. Let winter 2023-24 begin!

The Lake Michigan shoreline has been in zone 6b for decades. Although hey, I would take it in a heartbeat over colder and less snow farther inland lol.

I had him on ignore, but then other people would respond to his jokes and it was too tempting to not join in. Anwx needs a block button, especially since it's ok to have no mods

Lmao. You almost never post facts of any kind. I would grind you into the ground in any real debate discussing facts and not just picking the warmest model run you can find. And you want to talk rhetoric lol? You people have a handbook you follow: 1) start datasets in 1970 and/or whatever makes the starting point the coldest possible 2) call anyone who does not agree with your outrageous predictions a denier. Don't believe the climate will warm 30° in 30 years? You are a denier

You do realize that zones are based on the average lowest temperature right? Even if even in a climate where the average annual temperature has risen, that does not necessarily mean that the hottest and coldest temperatures each year will fluctuate much. In just 2019, the Midwest had temps in the -20s and -30s. Various cold records were also set in 2013-15, 2017-18. The 2010s in Detroit had a colder average annual min temp than many previous decades, despite a warmer overall mean temp.

You have to keep in mind he is not a weather enthusiast or even a climate change enthusiast. He is here for nothing more than constant trolling, since he knows the lakes forum does not have mods who would ban him as they would in any other subforum. There's about one poster who takes any of his outrageous posts seriously.

Almost any winter will have active and boring stretches. The question is, which dominates?

Looking wintry around Thanksgiving!

Lmao. Math must not be your strong suit. I know you guys like to start data sets with the coldest numbers on record as the mean, but thats not how averages work. By your math, Milwaukees climate warmed an incredible 9° from 1875 to 1878. When someone says that a given location has warmed 1-2° its an average, not just starting from the coldest datapoint in the entire record.

Obviously I do not know if it will be a tame or active winter either, but i'm very big on November's patterns & temperatures being irrelevant to the coming Winter.

Fall is known as deer season for auto insurance companies.

Thanks. I noticed this on weatherbell. I also noticed that the extended usually leans warm whether or not it ends up being warm. For instance, the end of october/early November looked warm when it was four weeks out and ended up being cold as it got closer.

Aren't the weeklies run daily now?

Snowfall was around average at Detroit, but it was by far the most tame winter in a great stretch. I had 46.1" but 27" of that fell in Feb. I can remember the snow drought of Toronto and Northern New England that winter. I remember it was much colder that winter than I expected considering the enso state. 2007-08: 71.7" 2008-09: 65.7" 2009-10: 43.7" 2010-11: 69.1"

Weather stat guys like myself are so fortunate to have a wonderful website like Xmacis. On top of knowing Detroit's climate in and out, whenever I want to randomly run numbers for other cities I just have to go to xmacis. One day I was randomly just looking at regression lines for winter temperatures and it was absolutely clear that northeast winter temperatures have risen noticeably since records began while the Midwest was much, much more of a subtle rise and a few stations in the midwest and moreso in the northern plains have actually cooled. Subzero days today are far greater in SE Michigan than they were in the 1930s-50s, and far less than the 1970s-80s. The difference from mid 20th century to late 20th century was crazy. The bottom line is if you're north of I-80 and you are just worried about snow, precip patterns and storm tracks will always be more important than temperature departures. Hell, last winter we had multiple snowstorms that caused damage, had blinding snow, and it was our 8th warmest winter on record. It is those of us who like the snow cover and enjoy the deep cold air who always want a colder winter.

The Edmund Fitzgerald museum in Paradise, MI is a fascinating experience. Winds gusted from 60-90mph in northern MI with 20 foot waves on Lake Superior. In Southern MI winds gusted 40-70mph. At Detroit, the first 10 days of November 1975 were record smashing warm. To this day it stands as the warmest first 10 days of November by an impressive 3.0°. This storm brought much cooler temps (60s on the 10th, 50s 11th, 40s 12th) but no snow in SE MI.

Detroit got 9.9" with the 1973 St Patty's storm. It was after a warm March to that point.

1972-73 was like a colder version of last winter in that our area had multiple snowstorms while the East Coast had next to nothing. It was milder than average and not a great winter for snowcover, but definitely had its ups and downs and multiple wintry spells. 2009-10 was a decent winter.

Oh I know. But I live in DTW, so I use DTW stats bc thats what matters to me. I dont care whats going on elsewhere, just as he uses MKE. If you look at multiple stations, its clear that winter warming is far greater in the northeast than the midwest. Some midwest stations havent shown any warming, and some northern plains have actually cooled, while some of the northeast have warmed 4-5F. But this is NOT about that. Its about his trolling and complete BS. Im here to discuss weather, not cower in a corner if i dont stoke cromarties ego "if you dont admit that we will warm 30F in 30 years and have palm trees, you dont believe in climate change".