michsnowfreak

It does not matter how anomalous the April temperature is, it's almost impossible not to have a hard freeze in the areas that grow fruit trees.

Yes you are late to the party lol. GFS has been atrocious

Same here, only we had add 1.4". But it was low visibility. Extremely slippery. Then afternoon was like early Spring. Pretty good here, hope you are well! Not a snowy March here, a pretty average Winter in the end but of course with plenty of ups and downs. Nov- 6.6" Dec- 3.3" Jan- 9.4" Feb- 20.2" Mar- 2.8" 42.3" so far

This is not my picture, but a friend posted this. Really tells the tale of yesterday (high/low 46/14).

Quite a day for a weather enthusiast. Started the day at 14° with wind chills below zero. Then the south wind brought a mini driving fluffy snowstorm complete with drifting and very slick roads. Then once the snow stopped, temps, then up to 23, began a rapid rise, forecast into the mid 40s by late afternoon. Today's 1.4" puts me at 42.3" on the season. DTW also had 1.4", putting then at 42.2". Highest amounts today were around 2" in the southern suburbs.

Wind chills near zero all day. Few flurries, patches of snow from yesterday. Definitely feels like deep Winter in mid March.

1.3" here, season to date 40.9". 1.2" at DTW, season to date 40.8". We had been tied although took slightly different routes to get there depending on the snowfall. I actually expected less than that with the the snow band expected to produce much better snow to my West (which it did). Despite a high of 32ﾟtoday and overcast skies, the fluffy snow sucked into the ground in spots. Absolutely telling of the time of year it is.

Is there a website where you get these graphs?

It really has. Not just big systems. Literally every event/disturbance. And there's not even a known bias (ala 2008 NW trend). Sometimes it's north, sometimes south. Sometimes it benefits you. Sometimes it screws you. The only thing you can count on with the gfs anymore is that it will be incorrect.

I took this pic Feb 16, 2021. I usually don't show close ups of my snow stick but it's a pretty neat measuring tool. And its all in tenths.

Agree. NWS snow sticks are in tenths of inches, I have several. If we want to be super technical any nws measurement should be taken on a device with tenths of inches.

Looks like the potential is there for a fun band of snow to ride the Arctic front Friday. It will be funny to watch the GFS cluelessly go all over the place in the coming days.

Didn't know if I should put this in banter or in the March thread, but I was noticing how despite the usual ups and downs, crap decembers and and snowy februaries, we are on pace to have a 3rd straight near "average" snow season in terms of total snowfall. The reason it's notable is because it's actually quite rare to have average snowfall. It's usually either above or below. The 1991-2020 average snowfall at Detroit is 45.0". Interesting to note this is the highest the 30 year average has ever been for snowfall, thanks to some banner years, but snowfall has been fairly consistent (low 40s-ish) throughout the climate record with the huge exception of the WTF 1930s to 1960s. 2019-20: 43.7" 2020-21: 44.9" 2021-22: 39.6" thru 3/6

What's your season to date?

I've got my eye on this one. Still so early though.

Did you mean .6" of freezing rain?

Des Moines officially recorded tornado in their climate summary so it's cool to see the ever elusive X (for tornado) show up in the F6.

Not sure about backing off. I hadnt looked closely at the exact numbers in recent days but centered around Sat-Sun Mar 12-13 are very impressive cold anomalies on all the ensemble means. Thereafter intensity certainly wears off but generally colder than average looks to continue through the end of the ensemble runs.

The cold snap coming next weekend looks legit. Will be interesting to see if any good snow can precede it

Yes but it's been a while.

Looking at the last 100 years for each of the 3 Winter months at Detroit, I ran a regression line which showed Dec warmed 2.2° Jan COOLED 0.5° Feb warmed 0.5°. But all of that aside, this subforum is a lot different than the mid Atlantic or even northeast. Most of us are snow weenies and when it gets down to it, the temperatures aren't quite as important. To me it just makes no sense why we have had no shortage of snowier than average November's, an unusual number of late October and late April measurable snowfalls in this sub almost yearly and yet Decembers are on a shit run. Locally at least, ma nature has been edging in December then blowing a big load in Feb. Sorry to go OT lol. Bring on the March snows.

I hate the term stat padding. Every March and April snowfall is referred to as stat patting yet what do you think previous year's March and April snow was? Lol it's not like it stayed on the ground forever. Plus, if we call snow that does not last long stat padding, does that mean when you get a midwinter snowfall that stays on the ground for a long time with or without additional snow, you should call it stat understating?

I don't think agw has anything to do with our December luck lately but it has been a weird quirk. You can't go by the mantra that everything is getting later because we have had no shortage of snowier and colder than normal Novembers as well as some unusual October snowfalls lately. I attribute it to a weird trend of luck where the other shoe will eventually drop. We had similar runs of shit Decembers in the 1930s, 1950s, and 1990s. Fun fact. At Detroit... 9 of the last 17 Christmases have had snow on the ground. 16 of the last 17 Valentines Days have had snow on the ground.

Jokes aside they definitely measure every tenth of an inch, but that lake effect up there is so fluffy you can honestly get a half an inch of snow with a trace water content. Our last day up there there was a fresh inch of fluff on the car when I did not even think it was supposed to snow that night. it was pretty isolated to the area I was staying in, but still. unless there's a abnormal torch or rainstorm you pretty much have to forecast at least a chance of snow almost every day in the superior snowbelt during the Winter.

I edited the title a little bit, just to avoid confusion as I was referring to locally in Southern MI, and it's not been the case everywhere. The frequency of not just snowy February's but top tier snowiest Februarys has been unlike anything I've seen in the climate record for snow, temp, or precip. Although I do remember one of our few more average February's (2019) ironically did have a lot of snow in those areas who missed out this year.