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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    It’s just one run maybe two, and the EPO trend may be incorrectly modeled, but Commodity WG posted this (and I consider them to be credible): https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1756015637673972047?s=46&t=etSZn0BwxaYu-SKkXncW9w Right now I don’t have any confidence in what’s going to happen the rest of this month. None. I’m in wait and see mode now.
  2. Terpeast
    Yeah, this is a PA/NY/SNE event. Let them have it. They need a morale boost
  3. Terpeast
    That it is. Then again, the ns is all over the place with the gfs. Zero confidence in any solution it puts out beyond 180hrs, except that there will be a ss wave deep south
  4. Terpeast
    Didn’t the NAM lead the way in the south trend for both Jan storms? Or did I get my wires crossed up?
  5. Terpeast
    I suspect it’s partly because of smoothing between cool downs and warm ups, but with a dynamic storm that runs south of us we’ll get mostly snow. I don’t have much confidence in these rainstorm depictions with such a strong blocking episode coming up, so I guess that’s why most mets aren’t talking about it unless they have a warm bias or are panicking. we could go a couple degrees warmer across the board except when a vort passes south of us, and we’d still snow even (and especially) in late feb early march
  6. Terpeast
    I don’t think we’ve seen the last of the trends. Still details to be worked out
  7. Terpeast
    If the gfs is correct and other models trend this way, we might have another tracking opportunity sooner than most are expecting. I don’t think any of the models are doing a good job with the ns/ss interactions and just smoothes everything out in the long range. My wag is that there will be an unexpected plot twist in the next 10-14 days. Just hope one breaks in our favor.
  8. Terpeast
    Beeee-youuuuu-teeee-fullll! And looks plenty cold enough judging from that 540 height line
  9. Terpeast
    Same, I'm tired of hearing about the damned MJO. Besides it was in the warm phases when we got that winter week in January. And it was in 8-1-2 in December and it didn't do squat for us. Like I said before, the waiting is the worst part. I get a little antsy too, so can't say I blame them. But DT? Come on
  10. Terpeast
    Sounds jumpy. All ens still look good to me. Blocking, cold air feed, signal of a wave underneath us around Feb 23-24 What has really changed?
  11. Terpeast
    Sure! For now my idea was a dart toss at a La Nina climo map most favorable for snow, lol But if I go through with it, it'll be a family trip with the wife and kid in tow... though I might want to hit the steeper slopes with a fellow skier while they stick with the bunnies
  12. Terpeast
    Thinking of either going to whistler for skiing or visiting my brother in Spokane next winter
  13. Terpeast
    Not checking the panels, but we need the s/w to be closed off and the sfc low to be stronger
  14. Terpeast
    We do, indeed. I hope we cherish that week for a long time to come.
  15. Terpeast
    If it’s getting this bad in here, wait until I post my winter 2024-25 preview after getting shut out this feb and march
  16. Terpeast
    Yep, thats what the lwx afd said. 50/66 north might get something like 1-3” if the closed low and in situ cold plays out. Otherwise best chances of accumulation north of the m/d line another trend in out favor is still not out of the question though
  17. Terpeast
    When was the 19th and that week in play? If I remember correctly, there was going to be a dry period as blocking strengthens. It peaks around the 20th, and then that’s when our chances start. Nothing seems to be slipping away for me. And our 850mb climo is still -3 in late Feb, so we’re still fine
  18. Terpeast
    EPS lighting up GEFS still washed out for that period, GEPS too
  19. Terpeast
    To support this point, I saw 3 “waves” of interest on the ensembles a couple days back. One is the feb 13-14. The other two came later but were too close together that I read it as disagreement among ensemble members. Now they seem to be consolidating into better agreement on that third wave.
  20. Terpeast
    My inner weenie says “last time we saw a blend like this, it went south and we got hit. Twice in a row”
  21. Terpeast
    Even closer to a phase, but looks weird. Still liking where we are now
  22. Terpeast
    Judging from the trends, the slower this system is the better it is for us. Faster means warmer in this case. Not sure which way this is going to eventually break, but I don’t like being on the southern 1/3 of the snow area. Learned that lesson on Jan 7
  23. Terpeast
    Gotta go pick up my daughter now... will have to rely on you guys for the pbp
  24. Terpeast
    I think we'll like this one Similar to 06z, but with better ridging out west
  25. Terpeast
    NS seems slightly faster, but too early to call
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