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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Yeah, this year is the best year to swing for the fences. But keep in mind we have had couple of near misses. One in Jan 7, which had temperature issues and a track too inland. Couple degrees colder, it would have been a warning-level SECS maybe a low-end MECS. I was pretty disappointed in that one, and led me to lower my expectations a smidge. Another one was when Nova Scotia got pounded recently. This wasn't a "synoptic miss" in the sense that the track was 200 miles too far south, or a "mesoscale miss" with best banding 50 miles too far north... this was a planetary wave miss of about 500 miles (which isn't much at that scale) as I mentioned earlier. Move that omega block 500 miles west, and get the NS wave to dig in the tennessee valley, and we'd have gotten that HECS.
  2. Terpeast
    It’s not just Nina, but the QBO will likely go back positive, and we might have maxed out on solar and start the descending cycle then. Purely based on these variables, I’m not optimistic except for a winter trip out to Whistler. Sure we can get lucky with one storm like Jan 2022. But that’s all a year way. Back to your regularly scheduled pattern change tracking.
  3. Terpeast
    Put this way. If it can snow significantly in March like 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2022 (and multiple years pre-2014 notwithstanding), then it almost certainly snow big enough to surpass climo by a big margin in late Feb through the first week of March.
  4. Terpeast
    I’m not all that worried about BN precip, because if we’re on the north side and when its cold, we can still get a decent snowfall out of it without any mixing issues. HECS? Maybe not, but something that gets us to climo before we get another shot end of feb-early march. Still can have a wave miss us to the south, and if it does, it is what it is. There will be multiple shots.
  5. Terpeast
    Surface temps only matter during precipitation events. I only look at 850mb temp anomalies at range, since those tell us where the anomalously warm and cold airmasses are or are going. Saying that surface temps are warmer than 850 temps as far as anomalies go is a bit misleading, though. This would hold true if it’s a bright sunny cloudless day, especially with no snowcover, when you could have cold 850mb temps but with dry adiabatic mixing you’ll probably reach average or even slightly above at the surface. But if it’s dry and sunny, who cares. Take the same 850mb temps during a precipitation event, you’re almost certainly getting snow. That’s when we’d check the sfc temps, or better, the soundings. The poster who said that may be a good researcher, but he conveniently left all of the above out.
  6. Terpeast
    And maybe we’ll get what Nova Scotia just got
  7. Terpeast
    I don’t know if you guys realize this but we just had a close miss. This could have been us if the omega block was displaced 500 miles west. (It was that weird clipper that dived from the NW and it was DOA when it got here, but it went nuclear as soon as it went neg tilt before Nova) At least we have another shot later this month
  8. Terpeast
    Nova Scotia crushed. 5 feet and more on the way https://x.com/ChuckWrathall/status/1754248252810047560?s=20 Had that Big Omega block been placed 500-600 miles west, this could have been us (DC to Boston) 500 miles is a very close miss in the global scheme of things…..
  9. Terpeast
    Good theory, which may well be tested next winter. But I don't think a super nina will help with the west pacific warm pool. The trades will just concentrate all those warm waters and push down the thermocline even deeper. Then it'd be hard for even cloudiness and convection to cool those waters, even if it sustains itself long term.
  10. Terpeast
    Yeah, I don't think he deserves any credit. He was saying 2.3 for so long, and there's always the "broken clock is right twice a day" thing. Just like I was off on the ONI prediction and my call for an early peak. It peaked much later, and I was about 0.2 too low. But I based my outlook on the MEI, which last I checked was 1.1. I still don't know if the MEI is a good seasonal forecasting tool though, maybe RONI is better.
  11. Terpeast
    Yeah, that's a stronger MJO 8 signal. Normally, I want it weaker and inside COD. But in this case, we don't want it to collapse into COD and then reemerge into the warm phases. So for this year, we want it to stay stronger as we circle through the cold phases. It may not contribute to giving us deep arctic air, but we don't need it to get that cold even in late February.
  12. Terpeast
    At this point I’m wondering if the Feb 19-20 system is just the appetizer for the next one. We might get something from it, or at least reinforce the cold air from that point on
  13. Terpeast
    The only way we stay dry is suppression, and suppression will only happen if the waves passing by are weak/sheared, or if we have a record breaking block over central/south Canada as is the case for feb 5-6. I don’t buy it with the eps look brooklyn posted
  14. Terpeast
    Either it means the eps is right and we stay dry, or it just hasn’t picked up on the signal that gefs/geps already has. I’m thinking the latter is more likely.
  15. Terpeast
  16. Terpeast
    MSLP anomaly plots show a signal feb 19-20 per 12z gefs. GOM low forming. Geps also shows this, but more muted
  17. Terpeast
    Not worried about suppression for now. Storm tracks almost always shift further north as they get closer (as long as there isn’t an omega block right over us). Sure someone may get hit in NC or even northern SC in one of those threats, but the primary storm track won’t set up that far south.
  18. Terpeast
    Case in point, take away that 80 degree day would lower our Jan average by at least a full degree. We’d have been closer to average
  19. Terpeast
    Yeah, like I said I’d be disappointed but happy about that mid-Jan wintry week. Both my phone and laptop has 100s of photos and reels to carry me through next winter, which at the moment I consider cancelled.
  20. Terpeast
    Just checked the calendar for something work related… and couldn’t help but notice that Feb 23-25 falls on a weekend.
  21. Terpeast
    Don’t be surprised folks if the next euro control run shows nothing or rain 20 days out. As long as we have the pattern and it moves closer in time, we should be fine
  22. Terpeast
    Not really, no. Not with support from a background pattern like the plots we're seeing for mid-late month
  23. Terpeast
    It does also mean we have a legit shot at a MECS/HECS, which is something that couldn't be said for the last 8 years.
  24. Terpeast
    Right rear entrance of northern jet + Front left exit of southern jet = double jet signature!
  25. Terpeast
    Look at that 50/50 with an incoming STJ wave. Canada no longer torched, should be cold enough to snow from NC north
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