Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Still in the game for a MECS!
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Maybe this is a different case, or the globals are better now, but I’ve always thought that the globals tend to under-predict CAD and we hold onto snow a little longer. Especially with strong confluence to the NE of us (even with it trending more east, it’s still strong)
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I agree. For it to be sleet, it should nose out to -1
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No real north trend, but possible dry slot then coastal enhancement on the backside. Too soon to nail down all the details where exactly these things are going to happen
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GFS looks like a bowling ball at 72 Souther at 78
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I can't show that, not allowed. But I can tell you it looks great for DC metro. haha , ninja'ed by NorthArlington101
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What about it?
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ICON is not even north. Just a few hours slower.
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I think LWX is smart to call out potential for sleet/freezing rain because that will have bigger impacts on the Monday morning commute than an all snow event. Anytime we're flirting with the mix/changeover line, it has to be addressed and made known to the public.
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I want to caution that this is just one run, and as a reminder, this is a global model that may not have the best resolution for working out the ptype details per soundings. The mesos will help us with that starting tomorrow afternoon-ish. If this holds, should be "mostly" snow for the DC/Balt metros.
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might see some mixing when rates decrease upon dry slot, but that's really nbd
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GFS soundings at both IAD and DCA show a nose between 750-825mb just touching 0 C. This should stay snow verbatim
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Looks like a thump to mix to dry slot verbatim. Hard to tell between 90 and 96 hr
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Looks more like it closes off over Indiana, but with flatter ridging ahead under confluence that seems stronger and more south?
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a stronger s/w (shortwave) with more confluence would create a stronger CAD situation, imho
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I like this. Gives the DC metro a bit of wiggle room
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Temps likely run a bit warm, but I’d be paying more attention to timing due to the friday PM commute
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Nice to see the euro take a step back south, and the gfs is mostly a hold if not a tick north. Let’s see if they tighten up the goalposts. If the storm start time is sunday night, it’s 3.5 days away now. That’s usually the time when models start flushing out any major disagreements with each other, barring a last minute trend.
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Love the CAD on the CMC. Sign me up. IAD sounding show a warm nose at 800-825 mb flirting dangerously close to 0C, but stays colder than that. Too early for these details ofc
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Ha, not that easy using pivotal on mobile. Fat fingered it
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Never mind, Was on a different model page when comparing. Disregard. Sorry.
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At 500 it is, but the surface is different
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Looks similar to todays 12z gfs
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Looks similar to yesterday’s 0z
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And confluence actually stronger…!?
