Terpeast

And it's worth noting that the 1/7 system has been way too warm at the surface for several runs the last few days. It's almost like we need the first system to go ape off the coast to bring colder air in. And that's what I noticed on the 12z gfs. Still needs ensemble support as well as the other op models.

I wonder if the trend on 1/4 is setting us up for the 1/7 system. I’ll be watching this closely

12z op gfs a step closer to a phase for jan 5. NS got way stronger and further S and W. End result is still suppressed, but continue this trend it may show a totally different solution

I have posted mine. It’s in the MA forum. It may yet go up in flames, and if that happens, I’ll learn something from it.

Oh, to some it does matter. The willingness to put oneself on the line at the risk of getting it wrong earns a lot more respect from me, than always being right about short term lead times. And I don’t think I’m alone in saying this.

Yes, bluewave’s accuracy in 1-2 week lead times has been deadly. But did he put himself on the line by issuing his own winter outlook? I haven’t seen one.

If you posted your own winter outlook, you’d be getting enormous credit if this played out like you’re saying. Maybe you did post your winter outlook and I must have missed it?

Besides we want the aleutian low at the tip of the aleutians instead of GOA, because that’s where it takes residence during more moderate/modoki ninos. Ridging pokes northward into Alaska that brings more cold air into an undercutting STJ. That’s the path to winning (in late Jan & feb) and we’re not that far off. Of course it could go sideways in the process, but now’s not the time to cancel winter. Lowered expectations? Probably.

@psuhoffman 06z trended better in the long run. Aleutian ridge weaker, aleutian low looks like it wants to reload behind it. It’s just one run, so we’ll see.

Trying to pin me on what I did to you eh? This isn’t a weekly, and it’s less than 2 weeks out. Nice try @Ji

Cutter > fropa > cold/dry What I’m interested in is what happens after

I hear what you’re saying. Even in a great pattern, and even if we have plenty of cold air, we still wouldn’t expect to get a hit with every storm. Take the 1980s for example, it was plenty cold but many storms were misses, suppressed, or badly timed that we got rain or sleet. In those cases, cold air wasn’t a problem. Something else was. Now? Cold air is sorely lacking after the canada torch and in this specific case, we DO need 10,000 things to come together right for it to snow. Maybe later in the season cold air will be more abundant and we’d only need a few more things to go right. And by the way, we already got snow in a bad pattern this season. Dec 10th, I believe.

Not sure why my comment deserved a snarky retort, but it’s always been the case that we need stuff to line up right to get snow here. Cold air is the #1 ingredient and my comment is about what it takes to get enough cold air to snow for these 2 threats. Otherwise it’s not gonna work. I know that.

It still can be. Maybe not a pure all-snow event, but if timed right (happens at night, NS vort leads a bit bringing a push of colder air) we could maybe get a mixed R/S event on the lowlands with elevation snowfall.

Now the trend we want to look for is whether it gets colder up top as lead times shorten. Right now it's a few degrees to warm at the surface up to 950 mb for both systems, but the second system has trended colder. Just a little nudge is all it takes.

And the NYC forum is even more pessimistic than we are. According to them, it's never going to snow again even up there

Appears not

Even though they did a decent job for December, we shouldn't be trusting even the weeklies beyond 2-3 week lead times

700+ hour maps, really? At least it's not showing a aleutian ridge, so there's that.

At least the SPV stays weak for a while

NS vort quashes the SS wave a bit and that's why it's a miss on this run. The canadian holds the NS vort back a bit and then tries to phase with a neutral tilt, that's how we get colder air in and the low further N without torching the mids. That's the path to a (minor) win. Won't be a significant event. Maximum upside is probably a 2-4 incher if we can reel that in. Otherwise it's a miss OTS. Ensembles say we get another shot on the 7-8th but the Op runs seem to have other ideas. Will lean on ensembles at that range, though.

Gettin' close... and has support from the canadian

I was comparing 12z eps with 18z gefs but didn’t scroll an extra day to the end of the gefs run. That extra progression is for the worse, yeah. I hope it’s on an island and that the eps/geps are more correct

End of both EPS and GEFS runs don’t look that different to me. Both have a -nao and a bit of a broad -pna trough that isn’t terribly warm anywhere in NA except well NE closer to the nao block. Yes, the trough is more tilted SW (as expected with a -pdo) but it’s not a shut the blinds look. Both show a mild warmup over a few days after the Jan 7-8 system, but overall much colder in canada and conus than this week

Yeah, I’ve been following those pointed questions and the radio silence that followed. Why don’t they just come right out and say it’s virtually impossible? Maybe they’re afraid that mother nature will throw yet another curveball that catches them with their pants down. I mean, come on. I’d have a lot more respect for them if they put forth their own winter outlooks at the risk of getting it wrong. And own it.