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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Chuck has talked about the hadley cell expansion. To translate Chuck-speak, the tropics and midlatitudes have been warming so their circulation has been expanding, pushing the jet slightly north, and taking all the storm tracks with it. This is the key flaw in my own analysis of how past snowstorms would perform today. My assumption was that the storm tracks would remain the same, but the temps a few degrees warmer. But what I did not account for (or have the resources to analyze) was how the storm tracks would be affected by that warming. Take the blizzard of 1996 for example. That was a la nina winter. Normally the jet would cut north of us, but that storm dived so deep to the south that we got a hit from it. Do you think that if we got the same setup today, but the jet is further north, we’d still get the same result? Or would it have not dug so deep? Would it have been a cutter today? Or a miller B? Or even NO storm at all?
  2. Terpeast
    It’s not just perfect track rainstorms. It’s the jet stream shifting north
  3. Terpeast
    I do share this sentiment. I don’t remember too many 3-6/4-8” storms, but the big ones are vividly etched into my photographic memories. I just hope my memory doesn’t go when I get older (and I’m not exactly a spring chicken either)
  4. Terpeast
    Yeah, I think deep down we know we already have our answer
  5. Terpeast
    And then watch it fall apart by D3
  6. Terpeast
    I think that boat has sailed. We needed at least one of the two storms from jan 16-21 to hit fairly big to put this winter within that class of analogs.
  7. Terpeast
    I’m in bargaining mode now. If we can manage an inch in Jan, I’m good with that.
  8. Terpeast
    Last year we never had a chance inside of 5 days. This year? Twice. Two heartbreakers in one month.
  9. Terpeast
    It’s over. Will be lucky to see an inch out of this, and I’m usually one of the more optimistic ones
  10. Terpeast
    Cold and dry and then reload for Feb
  11. Terpeast
    Me. My wife has a good laugh every time she sees model panels on my phone
  12. Terpeast
    Still holding out hope for an inch or two, but I won’t lie… I’m tired
  13. Terpeast
    True, its just one model run, but the trend has been going the wrong way for a while
  14. Terpeast
    Sounds like we’re only an inch away from a rug pull
  15. Terpeast
    King euro is back?
  16. Terpeast
    I’m thinking 12z tomorrow for much better clarity. But hopefully 0z will give us a clue whether the 12z runs today are onto a trend
  17. Terpeast
    At least they moved west. Better than 0z
  18. Terpeast
    Concur
  19. Terpeast
    We should probably root for a stronger cutter that occludes up in canada
  20. Terpeast
    I don’t love the miller B look, which makes it possible for NW of DC to miss both upcoming threats. I’d be pissed if it happened
  21. Terpeast
    At least we stopped the bleeding
  22. Terpeast
    Now we just need the Euro to nudge NW even just a little bit
  23. Terpeast
    Only a day earlier. Starts on 1/19
  24. Terpeast
    Yeah, so the PNA ridge on the GFS is not the problem, it's the orientation of the TPV and how it interacts with the s/w. That's going to be key, and the TPV is kinda all over the place at this range
  25. Terpeast
    CMC definitely trended SE, as has the GFS. Let's hope this is the compromise that the Euro gets to
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