Eduardo

I wouldn't expect a 10-11 style flip in the PAC given the SST profile this year. But 09-10 shows that, if the ATL cooperates, even the slightest bump of that western trough can put us in business. Granted, that was a Niño, but the point remains. Solid posts, as always!

That's a tad prettier for sure (though, like you said, it's a D10 OP run). Flex the NAO on that map a bit more and your SWFE's become timely redevelopers. Some potential in this pattern, but I don't think we are where we need to be just yet. Lifting out that troughiness in the West would be ideal.

Ninja'd me, Chris. I was gonna say: "Looks like a clipper pattern." That RNA is really the fly in the ointment. So close to serviceable though!

I don't think it's about luck here (except insofar as it'd require massively good luck to get snow down to the coast). It's more a matter of pattern recognition. I can see us maybe getting a few slushy inches before a changeover. For me, the upcoming pattern has a very mehhhh 08-09 feel to it. Lil more -NAO help might give us what we need, but it's a close call.

Nada here in the city. Didn't even see any moodflakes.

Such a solid post! I am skeptical about us moving into the favorable MJO phases or experiencing an extended wintry period this year, but the fact that we are beginning in Phase 6 gives me a tad more hope. One question that's been on my mind that I've posed in my own regional forum: Wouldn't those those anomalously low SSTs off the coast of western South America have to serve us well at some point (even if the NPAC is pure suckage)?

I'd love to see it, but I'm skeptical. You'd also have to do something about that pesky -PNA before a -EPO can lean on the SE ridge too. You'd think that the pool of anomalously cold SST near western S. America would have to serve us well at some point though, even if the NPAC looks like (not-so) hot garbage.

Yeah it’s pretty meh, as advertised. Need that AK ridge to shift eastward and poleward a bit.

Oh yeah NPAC and PDO regions are pure trash right now and those are the main pattern drivers. Seems that, over the past decade or so, blobs vs. “inverse blobs” in the NPAC have played a bigger role than ENSO. Anything to that? In terms of sensible weather, it’s looking pretty boring for those of us that love deep winter patterns. I’m still confident that we’ll luck our way into some fun this year, but it’d take something pretty monumental like a SSW that favors our side of the pole to dislodge that ugly blue ball sitting up near the pole.

Mehh. Maybe. It'd certainly improve our chances from slim to less slim. However unlikely, it is possible, for example, to get a nicely-timed HP to scootch across Quebec and get the job done. Probable? No. Possible? Sure!

Based on that map, I'd conclude that the Niña is east-based (or at least east-weighted), yet I'm hearing it described as "basin-wide." What am I missing?

I remember that winter being incredibly frustrating. I think our snowfall up here was roughly average, but I remember it consisting of small snow-to-rain events. Just bad luck?

Ah this is one of the only subjects on which we part ways, Chris. I live for face-burning cold in deep winters. It’s a source of both personal pride and social ostracism.

Barfffff. I've seen enough. First two-and-a-half weeks of the month are toast!

Honestly, it's looking pretty dismal for the next few weeks (and possibly beyond) unless we manage to get some ATL blocking. True, it's only December 1st, but I'd really like to see this turn around sooner than later. I mean, that's about as bad a look as you can ask for if you like cold and snow.

It's all outta love, man!

I don’t know if I’d call it panic, but the guidance is looking pretty unfriendly for pre-Xmas cold and snow over the past few days. Reality bites sometimes. I still think we’ll get our chances between boring periods.

Oh yeah 100%! But my main point is that December is too early to wave the white flag, especially when the models have been flipping and flopping. If, come the end of the month, our snowfall total is under 3" and the models are looking craptastic, then it'll be time to close the shades. Until then, I'm holding out hope for some wintertime fun.

I couldn't agree more. I will never forget how everyone basically gave up on winter in early January 2015. What followed just weeks later was some of the deepest winter I've ever seen around here.

Nice burst of moodflakes in the city!

PAC jet is killing any chance for run-to-run consistency though. Picture holding a piece of paper in front of a water cannon and trying to predict on which side of the stream it would end up. Total crapshoot. Barring some odd “white swan event” (like a crazy SSW), it’s gonna come down to whether the Niña overwhelms the MJO progression into the better phases. It’s a close match and I’d expect some more flipping and flopping before we settle on a solution. Any expressions of confidence on any outcome here are mistaken and everything’s on the table. The safe bet IMO is something similar to last year; we’ll have our chances, but there’ll be boring periods too.

Screen name doesn’t check out ;-)

I'm not quite there yet. Still too early. If things look like shiz in a month, then yes for sure.

I never really thought about it that way, but that's spot on. I only root for PV splits as Hail Mary's when all other hope seems lost.

IIRC, a ton of people took the cliff jump in early Jan. 2015. They found themselves climbing back up a few short weeks later. These patterns really do flip on a dime sometimes. That's why I generally don't put too much stock in LR guidance, especially when it's as fickle as it's been over these past few years.