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Dark Star

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Everything posted by Dark Star

  1. Dark Star
    But surpressed why? Because of a cold high? That is normally one of the features you need, well placed. Marginal "seasonable" air is not going to cut it, not around here...
  2. Dark Star
    We could very well be in an unprecedented climate. I lived through the 70's and 80's, and had some mighty cold winters, very little snow. I would put little faith into previous patterns. We haven't seen anything this extreme; including the general warming up of the northeast due to the weakening of the Labrador/Gulf Stream circulation...
  3. Dark Star
    Just for fun, I was trying to locate any "arctic" air in North America. There appeals to be a pool of cold air north of Michigan and just west of Hudson Bay. I don't know if these temperatures are normal for this time of year, ranging from -11 at Churchill and as cold as -36 north and west of there. Then as you travel farther north, it begins to get warmer. So we are cut off from the seepage of any true arctic air. I believe from some of the extended models in December, we should start to see some true arctic air begin to plunge more or less down the eastern side of Canada. Not sure if that is still the case? If not, our area will be marginal at best, at least until February...
  4. Dark Star
    Or more accurate models? If the models "correct" north and west all the time, isn't it a problem with the models? I wasn't expecting much from the beginning, since the air temperature was marginal, at best...
  5. Dark Star
    Can I come? I won't eat much. I promise not to bring my banjo...
  6. Dark Star
    Snow in these parts is a miracle, when it occurs. It takes water vapor, cold air, and luck. This coming weekend, we will have moisture, but marginal cold air. I don't remember who posted, but they pointed out that the high pressure in the Atlantic reached all the way down to the Carribean. I never noticed the effect this had on temperatures during a potential snow event, but all information is vital since the models are not that accurate 4-7 days out. My feeling is that with a marginal cold air source, at best, NYC will likely break the "snow drought" streak, but only receive 1-2" of a slushy accumulation before a changeover. However, I defer to the active professional forecasters on this site. A perfect track and intensity could surprise us all.
  7. Dark Star
    Then again, if it is going to change to rain, or melt within 24 hours, may as well keep the streak going?
  8. Dark Star
    I am guilty of coveting your activities...
  9. Dark Star
    Normally, Union and Middlesex Counties in NJ receive the same type of precip as mid town Manhattan (anticipated debate to follow)...
  10. Dark Star
    Good point to consider. Despite inaccuracy in all the models 6-7 days out, there are "clues" available that can aid in making a "highly probable" forecast even at this time. However, I defer to the active meteorologists on this site to make those predictions...
  11. Dark Star
    Yes, I do recall. I take it that prog was incorrect, just as the present progs are? Persistence Forecast: A forecast that the current weather condition will persist and that future weather will be the same as the present. The persistence forecast is often used as a standard of comparison in measuring the degree of skill of forecasts prepared by other methods. The Subtropical Pacific Jet has persisted over the last few years. Despite constant long-range signals for cold periods forecasted during the winter of 2022-23, they never materialized as each one was said “to be delayed”. Presently, the arctic air is not even in the “Western Hemisphere”. Unless this “monster/thing” of a beast in the Pacific subsides or is re-directed, I would not put any credence to any cold weather signals in the near future. (This hypothesis does not necessarily represent the viewpoint of this blogger or of anyone on this site).
  12. Dark Star
    No solutions. I don't have allergies, but rather non-allergic rhinitis. Kind of like a mini case of chronic fatigue syndrome, but nothing to that magnitude. Who knows in your case? If you know what you are allergic to, that could help, because then there may be injections you could take? Maybe there is mold in the basement? No doubt I have some in mine. Put a dehumidifier down there, it helps a bit. You may think about having you ducts cleaned, although I wonder about the completeness of the cleaning. Some of us were born to suffer (but thankful that it is not worse). I'm surprised that in 2023, there is no overall cure for sinus related maladies. The only med that worked somewhat for me was Clarinex D, and most Rx plans do not cover it (over $300 a box). I went through several sinus doctors and allergists, the last one told me to "Stop searching".
  13. Dark Star
    Interesting. Originally there was to be no cold dump in the west from Canada, since the first Arctic air was supposed to seep over the pole into north eastern Canada. Has this changed?
  14. Dark Star
    Except for some lingering spotty drizzle?
  15. Dark Star
    Stranger things have happened. I would put my money on the Mets before we have a "good" winter again (1 or 2 freak storms do not make a winter). I disagree with the NWS's White Christmas definition. If you have a foot of snow in your yard, it's a white Christmas.
  16. Dark Star
    Absolutely true. I remember a lot of warm winters, but it seems we were always on the wrong side of the trough and/or ridge; or a zonal flow. But even in those years, there ALWAYS seemed to be arctic air trapped in Canada, never NO cold air anywhere between us and the north pole?
  17. Dark Star
    Another Festivus miracle! Graupel and or sleet! It wasn't really bouncing, so I assumed it was graupel? Just as forecasted.
  18. Dark Star
    I wouldn't say it is unimportant, but it could help you "visualize" the relationship between pressure, heights and the role in interpreting "thickness" (I think). I couldn't calculate a natural logarithm anymore (or even an unnatural one)...
  19. Dark Star
    Is that what the kids are calling it these days?
  20. Dark Star
    Could happen but it seems to be threading a needle with diverting warm air farther into the arctic?
  21. Dark Star
    As good climatic forecast as any can be. With the NYC metro area outpacing the global warming average temperatue, I think it is possible snow becomes more an anomaly around here, despite being at the "early stage"?
  22. Dark Star
  23. Dark Star
    Physics Course 102a Much like the “Fire Triangle”, Snow, at least in the NYC metro area, requires three things; Cold Air, moisture, and luck. I consider snow a miracle in these parts. While we have seen certain anomalous episodes (especially recently) where a storm can seemingly “manufacture” cold air, you still need a cold air source nearby. Pacific air to our north doesn’t quite cut it.
  24. Dark Star
    Amen.
  25. Dark Star
    Hence, this is why Canada NEEDS to have arctic air.
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