Dark Star
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Central Union County NJ - October 29, 2011
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
Dark Star replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
What is causing all these vertical cumulus today? Looked like The Day of Judgement driving down Rt. 24... I guess the NWS discussion somewhat answers my question? Forecast mostly on track this afternoon. Moisture trapped beneath a subsidence inversion between 7-10kft will continue to lead to mostly cloudy conditions for much of the day. Sea breeze convergence has developed some bands of cumulus of clouds along it and cannot completely rule out an isolated shower.
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Luckily we can't even forecast 14 days out...
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Persistence? Not exactly the most accurate of forecasting methods, but hard to argue based on trending, recent (and stubborn) history?
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You can see how far off the 348 hour "forecast" was. I guess 2 weeks is asking a bit much. Of course 11 day prog hasn't confirmed yet, either. Doubtful if we ever get to that type of accuracy. Anybody guessing if the model needs more information, less information, or the right information?
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I'm sure they stagger precipitation events based on climatological statistics. In winter for the greater NYC area, they can say, "Rain or Snow along th coast, and snow likely inland and in the higher terrain.
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Do I see a 540 line on the map?
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Looks like some of the heavier stuff is NORTH of I-84. So much for suppression.
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It seems the moderate to long range forecasts have been somewhat elusive?
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However, many times the snow drought was a result of a dome of frigid air.
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Keeping optimistic that central Union County in NJ will escape heaviest of the rains. Appears right now that we will get intermittent showers of varying intensity this afternoon, until the approaching front finally makes it's way through. By then, hopefully, the main rain with that line weakens a bit. However, farther north, Phillipe will feed some extra moisture into the whole mess?
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Hopefully the offshore tropical system will have a lot less influence than previously thought?
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Seems every event lately is a now casting event? I no longer have the skill or courage to make an educated guess, but I'm sure others out there (including our forum) which can make a rational call. In my day, we had very little tools; LFM, Baroclinic, MOS outputs. However, I agree with this event that the max hot spots will be next to impossible to pinpoint.
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Nothing really, except maybe north of NYC? Except any rains that come are during the weekend, sigh...
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Had a waterfront house in Bayville NJ (on the bay) lose 3 walls to Sandy. County eventually bought it through a federal program to reduce houses along the waterfront and increase open space. Unheard of in this day and age.
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Not a hint of haze in Garwood, central Union County, NJ...
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and yet the media tends to encourage commuters to use mass transit during storm situations...
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- heavy rain
- flooding potential
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One forecaster did say that the remains of Ophelia would meander southeast, then possibly circle back again by weeks' end. It may be difficult to say, unless we have a foresenic meteorologist on board...
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The center of the low that once was Ophelia is now undiscernable, at least via radar or satellite. The last I saw, it was exiting the Jersey Coast, somewhere around Belmar? Obviously it is not going anywhere too fast.
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This track seemed pretty accurate. I would estimate the center is now somewhere between Trenton and Howell NJ?
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The race or the precipitation?
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You can see shunting already. Dry air in place. I thought this was more of a winter phenomenon in these parts. Cold air is much drier, so I figured a tropical system would have much more moisture to overcome any dry air (speaking only of the northeast).
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I suppose there can be mistakes with input data, or is the data automatically uploaded?
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Almost sounds like a loop de loop track? Anybody dare take a poke at a path?
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Cirrus here as well. Is this normal: The cirrus spinning clockwise on the westernside while everything else is moving in a counterclockwise direction?
