Dark Star

I will daresay less than 1 degree, and a lot less than winds reducing the effect of overnight radiational cooling, downsloping, lack of snow cover. Until someone can quantify it for NYC, it is a non item.

My memory is poor, but I thought we were moving towards a phase 8 last winter, then just disappeared?

Ever hear that high winds impedes radiational cooling? If you can show me the calculations, then maybe it can be considered. Of course you would have to taken in heating due to downsloping, etc...

and you can quantify the effect on NYC and it takes in account the effects of downsloping, cloud cover, snow cover, and all other variables?

Unquantifiable, therefore, not (officially) a factor here.

Thank you!

As I have said, too many variables to make a generalized statement of the effects of the Great Lakes on NYC temperatures. And surely, why would the effect be greater at night than during the day?

Good points. I think this topic could use its own thread.

Remnants of the line directly over Linden NJ, but I all observe is a broken cloud deck...

As a stubborn old guy, I first measure the actual temperature. After that, then I look at the wind and wind chill effect temperature. for sure, the wind chills were extremely uncomfortable at times this January, but the actual air temperature was more representative of January (based on the past 150 years or so of data).

THANK YOU!!!

150 years seems like a good enough data base. Except we only use 20 years (or 30 years according to Mgerb) for our averages. And although we don't have records going back before they were officially recorded, I thought we had a fairly reliable estimates from things such as tree cross sections, sedimentations, ice core sampling?

January 2025 is the colder departure. Don't forget, our average normal departures are based on the most recent 20 year averages, which are warmer than the 20 years before that, and 20 years before that. So although November and December were colder than the "average" is really wasn't that cold, just closer to "normal"

There is insufficient research to prove it. It would be nearly impossible to gather enough data of enough different scenarios to come even close to thinking that the Great Lakes would have any affect on NYC. I could see maybe a degree, but any more than that would be purely speculative. And why would the Great Lakes "effect" have more impact on night time temperatures than daytime temperatures? How can they have much of an effect more than 400 mile away? More than warming resulting from downslope over the Appalachians, wind preventing radiational cooling. heat island effects, other weather factors, such as where the core of the cold air entered the US? Again, there may be an effect, but not even close to any of the ones I mentioned, and most likely improbable to isolate and quantitate. Snow cover, besides providing a cold and reflective surface, provides a less frictional surface, allowing cold air to travel farther and become less moderated. So yes, a large water body can also have an effect, but again, not to that extent. And again, you get into the debate over a source of cold air coming directly down eastern Canada through the Hudson Valley. Not only is it direct cold air, but it will freeze Hudson Bay in a hurry.

Takes 5 hours to get to Boston, maybe about 90 minutes to get to Philly?

I appreciate all the long range discussions. Thanks.

Yes, but the number of people affected is the difference.

Then expect, rain...

I've been using a combination of neosporin (including on my thumbnails) and Gold Bond Eczema Relief on my hands. I can't say what to use if you are bleeding though. That is severe. I've been sporadically massaging my dog's pads with some Gold Bond as well.

It appears colder in southern NJ than even Rockland County in NY?

Aught or Naught?

And at lest this winter, we are getting cold air. which was nowhere to be found the last few years. In those years, I, myself included, would be "cancelling" winter right about now. Based on my definition of winter, if you haven't had any cold or snow by the end of January, and nothing looks good in the long range progs by the first week or two for February, then it is time to move on. This season, at January 22, 2024, we have seen WINTER, and it appears there is more winter to come on the foreseeable horizon...

8 degrees up here in Garwood (central Union County NJ). My thermometer sensor battery died from the cold last night...

For my area, blowing salt. The streets are so white, you would swear it was covered in ice or snow. The salt will be here for weeks now, getting in animals' feet, our shoes, cars, storm sewers, rivers, streams, drinking water...