Dark Star
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Everything posted by Dark Star
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Bands? For which location? Current models indicate a pretty tight gradeint. Banding would likely be an issue further out on eastern Long Island. No coastal/warm fronts to affect increased lift in most areas near NYC and west, unless the storm would track closer to the coast.
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Snowing lightly for at least the last hour in central Union County, NJ. Temp creeped up from 29 to 30 during that time. About 0.5". Surface winds appear to be NE. Expect pinging shortly, or just changeover to plain rain? -
I think the only chance NYC and NE Jersey has of seeing any snow is a result of that western component presently in Alabama and western Tennessee. If that fades, and "consolidates" with the main precip shield, we shouldn't see a thing?
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Bayville NJ, Sandy has since taken the house away...
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Blue sky has broken through in the beautiful Tremley Point section of Linden NJ
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Meteorological Winter begins December 1st.
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I would think long range predictions of just snowfall is completely unrealistic. The best we can do is to project a colder and wetter season, which probability would suggest some of that will be snow...
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I can't remember the last time lakes and ponds in Union County NJ froze solid enough to skate on.
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Computer model guidance is merely a tool. It's up to the meteorologist to make a forecast based on all the data and experience. As Jeff Beradelli has said many times, the devil is in the details. Somewhere in the modeling are clues to what actually is going to happen.
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The sensors are placed in a vented box, but they don't have to be "in the shade".
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A little bit of Sleet mixing in - in Central Union County, NJ; Now at 2:05 PM we have a snow shower in Garwood.
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As I have said before, the recent upsurge in wildfires have been assisted by intentional human intervention. The extent of it, we will never know. https://www.foxnews.com/us/ex-professor-charged-four-california-wildfires
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I thought a front combined with Ida accounted for the rainfall? The record rainfall amounts were predicted by the models, and I'm pretty sure they didn't take into consideration the ocean temperature feeding more moisture in.
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Almost impossible to say in Garwood, central Union County. The color last week was bland, and now, with half the leaves down, the color has turned much more vibrant.
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More chance of being right if you go warm...
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OBS and nowcast now through - 6A Sunday(Halloween) 10/31/21
Dark Star replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
The center of this thing seems to be anchored in the SW corner of VA, and not moving much. This is supposed to be out of here by Sunday morning? -
OBS and nowcast 9PM tonight-8A Wednesday for a general 2-5" rain, isolated 8" possible. 40-60 kt damaging wind likely Tuesday-early Wednesday. Focus for damaging wind and heaviest rain is the I95 corridor to the coasts. Power outages esp CT LI.
Dark Star replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Lost power for about 1 minute around 10:30PM last night in Garwood NJ. New "environmentally friendly" storm drains do not seem to be working as well as the original designs. -
Just picked up one about that size in my driveway in NE Jersey a few days ago and put him in a shrub. I rarely see them that big.
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Hard to argue, but it's also hard to believe a global increase of 2 degrees since the 1880's can have such a profound effect. I certainly am ignorant of the "accumulated heat" topic. I guess that may explain why such a seemingly small increase would result in extreme warmer temperatures in our area?
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True Dat, but there is $3.5T coming for "infrastructure"...In the long run, it could be cheaper to bury a lot of utilities instead of making repairs after every tropical storm or tornado...Of course then again, it would probably be done wrong, not burying utilities in such a way that lines can be slipped in or out for future improvements.
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Thinning out the forests does not mean eliminating them. I have read from many sources that forest management is severely lacking. Also need to keep power lines, windmills, etc. away from these areas. All power lines should be underground. It's also amazing how many arsonists there are...
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I think case in point is that the tornado damage occurred in Mullica Hill, in which appears to be a new development? The many undeveloped areas in the most densely populated state are disappearing. AS my brother in law says: K Hovnanian - Filling the spaces in between the spaces. The forecast last Wednesday was correct. However, the actual real time radar was showing the main area of precipitation missing the most populated areas to the north, the radar filled in the back trailing end just before it hit NE New Jersey. I was dead wrong (this wasn't the first time)...
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I deeply apologize for failing to see the impending disaster. I am very humbled.
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Strange, while Garwood NJ (central Union County NJ) has been under some heavy radar, only receiving occasional heavy downpours, mostly light to moderate, with possible tapering off to lighter scattered precip within a half hour, based on the latest radar? Heaviest rain so far at 7:45 PM. I can tell since this is the first time it is spilling over my roof gutters.
