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Dark Star

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Dark Star

  1. Dark Star
    Good question. I will assume the science will argue otherwise. Of course, when I was banging, there were only 2 models. Now, perhaps, there are too many models? Several have known biases. There are more, and better short term precipitation forecastng tools. It seems some models, which have had good sucess have been reconfigured and have become less accurate? We have ensembles, that are usually the most reliable tool. However, we still see enough short term temperature and precipitation busts that invoke doubt, and forget anything over 4 days. Long range is still unachievable ( or at least no better than using historical comparisons)?
  2. Dark Star
    I'm suspecting most of it dries up before it reaches the greater NYC metro area. Maybe a brief sprinkle?
  3. Dark Star
    Happy, you know, the thing...
  4. Dark Star
    Close call. Although clouds are trying to push in from the east, they seem to be running into drier air. Maybe the forks are/will be somewhat cloudy?
  5. Dark Star
    Satellite is Reminicent of many a winter storm...
  6. Dark Star
    That would make for one tough forecast, based on the tight gradient close to a very dense population area...
  7. Dark Star
    Depends on where the banding sets up...
  8. Dark Star
    Not that I should speak on how to dress, I claim that plaid below the waist (at least for men) is a fashion faux pas...
  9. Dark Star
    That's for sure. Reseeded twice, the first time right before the semi rainy week about a month ago, and basically nothing germinating, watered every day, starter fertilizer, covered with enriched topsoil, nuthin. Did get some nice spurge, even though I used crabgrass preventer as soon as the forsynthias started to bloom, and then about a month after that. I beginning to believe sometimes these products are not quite legit?
  10. Dark Star
    Luckily, we don't get "real" droughts around here. The worst it has gotten is that they issue "Don't water your lawn (except if you contract a landscaper). I mean, how do you enforce that sort of edict? You can't.
  11. Dark Star
    of what?
  12. Dark Star
    So if the US net emissions have been reduced. China is the culprit? Further US reductions would not have much of an effect until China climbs on board?
  13. Dark Star
    Cold air was in hiding last winter as well...
  14. Dark Star
    Not out of the ordinary.
  15. Dark Star
    Like many times, a line dries up right before Northeast Jersey, and then reforms once it goes by...
  16. Dark Star
    Very light drizzle in Garwood, central Union County NJ.
  17. Dark Star
    Sounds like a lot of data input...
  18. Dark Star
    Drizzling here again in Garwood, central Union County NJ
  19. Dark Star
    Ideally...
  20. Dark Star
    Is it me, or are the forecasts changing every 12 hours?
  21. Dark Star
    In this case, persistence is just as reliable as any other type of forecasting. Also, we all seem to define winter differently? For me, WINTER is defined as an extended period of nights below freezing, some local ponds freeze, and if we are lucky, a few nice snows. Had we squeezed in one or two, separate, foot or more snowstorms the last few years, I wouldn't consider that WINTER. (I know, my grammar is failing)...
  22. Dark Star
    It's always possible, but unlikely until we see this nightmare of a Pacific Jet end. Again, I wish that NJ would make weather gambling legal...
  23. Dark Star
    I wonder if this was due to the somewhat recent Saharan dust or the cold water pool in the tropical Atlantic?
  24. Dark Star
    Every week, in fact I think the upcoming winter is doomed...
  25. Dark Star
    At least below a recent 20 year average?
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