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Everything posted by Dark Star
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7.25" in central Union County NJ at 9:15 AM. Snowfall rates have just increased...
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Snow began in central Union County at 12:30 PM
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OBs and nowcast later Tuesday morning - Noon Wednesday 1/26-27
Dark Star replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
I take it the rain and or snow for today and tonight have been cancelled? -
OBs and nowcast later Tuesday morning - Noon Wednesday 1/26-27
Dark Star replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
So no more precipitation to the west, at least on radar. Is the precip supposed to back build? That would probably negate western Jersey and eastern PA from any additional accumulations? -
January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
Dark Star replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
A few short lived flurries here in Garwood, NJ (central Union County). -
January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
Dark Star replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
I do remember receiving some large snow storms preceded by abnormally warm day(s). Don't asks for any dates or years, my mind is shot. -
Obs and nowcast Sun 9A Jan 3 - 6A Mon Jan 4 2021
Dark Star replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Moderate snow just turned to a light drizzle in Central Union County NJ at 10:15 AM. -
January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
Dark Star replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
Thanks for spelling out the abbreviations! -
December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
Dark Star replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
While storms don't drop rain or snow uniformly, I am always suspicious of outliers. All towns near Newark reported 7" or less.- 1,011 replies
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6.0" final total pretty consistent around my house in central Union County NJ. Hit my low mark of my 6"-8" prediction. That was mainly based on the secondary "forming" too far north.
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
Dark Star replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Heard pinging a few minutes ago in central union county nj, then dry slotted. Maybe around 3"? My forecast was 6-8" based on sleet mixing in and the low reforming much farther north than progged. Unless the back end packs a wallop (they usually don't) then I only wind up with 4-5".- 1,011 replies
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
Dark Star replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Only 2.5" here in Garwood (central Union County, NJ)- 1,011 replies
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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
Dark Star replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Not too bullish, haven't seen significant pressure falls along Hatteras yet. I would say 6-8" in central Union County NJ, unless the coastal low gets going FAST.- 1,011 replies
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Anybody tracking pressure drops along the Carolina coast? I would think this is key, because if the secondary forms too late, it will be by us before it really starts to crank...
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I vaguely remember that one, at two years old...
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I always say that the forecast should be determined no later than within 24 hours of the onset of precipitation. Otherwise, it really isn't a forecast. As Jeff Beradelli has taught me, the devil is in the details. In other words, the pieces of the puzzle are there in the forecasting tools, it's up to the forecaster to know which ones to use and which ones to discard.
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I pulled mine out, but didn't use it. Story of my life...
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Unfortunately the NWS eliminated the clear the board every 6 hours. If it stops accumulating and then melts, does that mean we measured nothing? I understand with a continuous heavy snowfall, not clearing the board measures the actual snow depth, compression and all. I'm okay with that. Otherwise you can "measure" 35" of what actually fell, and only have 26" on the ground (for example).
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Melted snowflake thought to be detected in Linden around 12:45 PM. A little mixed precip looking to occur at 2PM.
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Thought I heard some sleet mix in around 8:15 AM as a heavier line went through Linden NJ?
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December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
Dark Star replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
Flurries here in Linden NJ at 8:30 AM. Thought I saw a flake in Garwood at 6 :15 AM, but figured it was just wishful thinking. -
December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
Dark Star replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
When we are at January 15th, and there is no tangible signs of colder weather progged, you can pretty much kiss winter goodbye. Otherwise, by the time a cool down would start, you have very little time left, unless a complete long term pattern change occurs. -
November 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
Dark Star replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Exactly! -
remnants of zeta and potential first flakes for some areas
Dark Star replied to forkyfork's topic in New York City Metro
I would have guessed the second storm would not have affected NYC Metro area due to the principle of the conservation of energy. However, at times, the atmosphere "does what it wants". Just a few wet flakes were struggling to work in here in Garwood, if you imagined really hard.