Dark Star

More than I expected with what looked like a relentless Pacific jet throwing heat into Canada...

The region was cooler than what was originally thought. When it was first progged, the storm was going to start on Monday. The slight delay allowed more colder air to reach the northeast. Not enough for an ideal setup, but enough to hold off any mixing issues, even with lighter rates over the subsidence (or whatever) over Union County in New Jersey (although I don't know if anybody noticed, the last 10 minutes of precip appeared to end as a light drizzle)?

Compaction was not the issue in Union County, NJ. Based on modeling, predictions and the actual storm setup, Union County was going to be in the bullseye. Up until 8 AM, we had about 3" on the ground with the "heaviest" rates yet to come. Instead, during the 8:00 AM hour, the "Subsidence/Snow Hole/Screw Zone" set up over this area, reducing the snow rates. Snow never compacted (appreciably) during the storm here. At the very end, the last 10 minutes of precipitation, it appeared to be falling as a drizzle. Immediately after, the snow became wetter, began melting and true compaction begun.

I think all the storms and misses have been challenging over the last several years...

The snow hole held us down to 6" in Garwood, central Union County. The skies started to brighten around 9Am, and I knew the heavy snow was over, even though I was assured "more" was headed my way as the storm began to wrap around...

There goes my snow hole...

They'z full of crap.

Sort of surprising at this went farther south and somewhat east? Of course, Union County in NJ got into a "snow hole" and never really recovered. Sun started trying to come out by about 8:45 AM.

Jeff Beradelli used to have great reviews of what went right and what went wrong with the different modeling and forecasts, after a snowstorm. That would be much easier than reading through all the clutter (including mine).

5 3/4" in Garwood. We wound up in a screw zone, just as intensity became heavy around 7:30 this morning, it began to taper off. Snow just became moderate again about 20 minutes ago. However, if we end up with 6", I can't complain; would have liked to have seen/heard some thundersnow...

Play out? This thing is OVER here. I thing I got hosed...

Switched to light snow and occasional bright spots. Looks like this is winding down for central Union County NJ.

Getting much brighter at times here in Garwood NJ...

Hope your right, storm seems to be pulling away even faster? 3.5" here in Garwwod NJ, central Union County. It was snowing heavily, but has backed off to just moderate...

Wow, any further trends south could be hardly anything for NYC?

Dunno, I don't think any MAJOR roadway in NYC (proper) will be terribly affected?

As I eluded, there are exceptions. January 1996 was a huge snowstorm with no temperature issues. Tomorrow is a marginal storm, where it all has to go right...

Just my 2 cents, I have never seen "signifcant" accumulating snow in a marginal temperature situation where dry slotting has occurred at some point during the storm. I don't think it is very common to have a dry slot, followed by heavy accumulating snow under any conditions in the immediate NYC metro area?

I would assume that to be true for most major highways. Local streets would be another story, if rates actually occur?

Banding? What exactly will be the causes? Won't rates be fairly uniform, depending upon your location in relation to the center of the low?

Any type of dry slotting with marginal temperatures spells no accumulation for coastal areas...

this morning's temperature profile looks colder than yesterday's. Still, not ideal for significant snow in the NYC metro area, but definitely improved. If a little more cold air can leak eastward, we might have a better chance, especially if snowfall rates are grater than 1" per hour?

February has traditionally been the snowiest month, but March is when "anything" can "happen"...

I agree, but you can begin to track a storm that far out, as long as you look at other things besides the model outputs. There was never going to be any cold air to tap into...

Snow or rain?