Dark Star

? Most of any future precip will likely retrograde back from the north?

It's warmer now...

No doubt a heavy rate can overcome temperature concerns, but sounds rare indeed?

Fog building in here in Garwood NJ (central Union County).

That would depend if there was ANY cold air to tap into. As of right now, there was rain all the way up to the Canadian Border. I noticed yesterday central Quebec was below zero. I guess you would have to have pretty intense cyclonic flow to pull enough of the cold air down?

The only thing worse than a 43 degree rain is a 31 degree, plain rain. (I've seen enough of plain rain, not freezing, below 32 degrees).

I think I got an F- in calculus once...

Notice the arrow through the head, kidding...

I think I woud assign a D-, no matter if the rest of the winter fizzles. For me, last winter gets an F?

Pictures, please...

There are lot of factors influencing a bust for a significant snowfall. I think one of the hardest things to forecast is the dreaded dryslot. You have a perfecty lined up intense storm, but becomes too intense that it sucks in dry air.

Sounds like a commentary on the entire science of Meteorology?

I do stand corrected. Based on what the actual temperatures were this side of the pole when the 10 day maps came out, I was highly skeptical that enough cold air came in to give us 10 days of winter.

C'mon, the term crystal ball is way outdated. I depend on more modern technology, like what is pictured below...

If by the end of January the long range maps do not hint of any cold air, you can usually stick a fork in it.

Sounds like the mega hurricane was likely due to global warming?

You mean until after the rest of the heart of winter?

Snow in these parts, "Is a miracle"

After a brief "thinning" some light "Stuff" beginning to fall...

Clouds thinning here in Linden NJ.

One of the best discussions I have ever come across...

I no longer believe the part about a State of Emergency means "automatic" funding. I would assume you eventually have to prove lossess, hardships, spending, etc? Declaring a State of Emergency for every raindrop, etc. is frivolous, irresponsible and has diminished and clouded the term "State of Emergency".

NYC Snow:

With a system this small, it is very difficult to pinpoint. It seems that for every storm, most are hung up on models as the final word. I used to enjoy when Jeff Berradelli used to give his post analysis on each storm and unravel each factor, stating that the "Devil Is In the Details", meaning most storms can be forecasted, if you choose which data is significant. In other words, in most instances, the information is there, you just have to find it. Sometimes the positioning of a high pressure system, a "kicker" way across the continent, 850mb RH. There are so many factors, but the key is to choose the right ones for each different scenario/storm. That is not me, but I would suspect there are a chosen few who do see the full picture.