Dark Star

MVA's?

I wonder what they were responding to?

Just reset the tarp on my firewood pile and found a few chunks of ice!!?? I know we had some colder nights, but to find ice in central Union County NJ in November?

We are talking about sustained warmth. The 1980s had some pretty cold winters. The arctic highs suppressed a lot of the storms south, so we didn't see a lot of snowstorms. I fear we are either in a "stalled" pattern or a new norm. And the warmth is magnified around these parts due to a weaker Labrador/Gulf Stream circulation?

Time to fix the program?

What I find amazing is the interpretation of a right or wrong forecast. IT's okay to be wrong, but it hurts like heck. i do believe most weather events are predictable. It's a matter of using the right tools at the right time (not this cowboy). I used to love Jeff Beradelli's post analysis of a storm, especially ones that "underperformed" based on the general guidance. He would always point out indicators as to why things didn't work out on a particular storm. It was a very good learning tool (I know, I'm off on a tangent)...

Any concern for the latest sunspot activity, or was it just media hype? Also, am I in the wrong sub forum for this?

The most gentlest 2 inches of rain ever?

Since it is southern hemisphere, no real effect on our weather (regardless of heights/content)?

Looksd like virga (snow) over western Jersey?

Cold Air Advection sounds too formal (especially for "cooler than normal" temperatures)?

Hate those split flows.

I think they left out cows?

One would think 5-10 "general" forecasts (warmer, colder, drier, wetter) should be achievable? Is it that the models just weren't designed to deal with the persisten Pacific jet?

I vaguely yremember the April 82 Snowstorm. What I remember most about it was filling in for George Cullen at CBS NY Weather. I made an awful gaff for predicting a daytime temperature for the city of Chicago that Steve Deshler was not happy about. However, I noticed the LFM picking up the snowstorm. Irv Gikofsky laughed at my analysis.

Before Superstorm Sandy, I always remember somebody turning the heat switch off right after Labor Day...

The average Atlantic hurricane season spawns 5.9 canes, this year we got 7 to date. The average major hurricanes is 3, and we have received 3 to date. So even though the water has been warmer, it looks like we are going to wind up slightly above average? Unless that is, that the warmer water extends the season?

But can get some nice weather...

Faint Aurora Borealis in Sussex County NJ last night? Is this normal, or was there some recent solar activity?

Hurrican season ending soon. NOAA increased their original forecast for the number of storms based on the water temperature. I wonder what the latest tally is vs. the number of storms predicted?

Depends what the tea leaves read...

I no longer bother.

Is it possible they already had a killing frost? Then again, it seems warmer the farther north you go sometimes, lately?

Baba Bouy?

My memory is waning, but I thought the slowing down of the AMOC was the reason why our region was experiencing a 4-5 degree increase in temperatures vs. the 1.2 degree increase globally over the past 100 years or so?