Dark Star

Seems to be following the Watchung ridgeline?

6.8" measured at 10:30PM in Garwod NJ (central Union County). Snowing moderate to heavy.

My son measured, so it wasn't official...

Send some here...

Graduated back in 1981. I haven't been an active forecaster for most of it. I see a lot of generalizations and optimistic wish casting, which can be confusing. I am hoping for an epic storm, but trying to keep my expectations in line with the models and present storm signals. So far, my area has received 3.5" and it is snowing moderately. My guess is that Union County in NJ will get 8-14". However, Sacrus just recently posted a map for tomorrow morning, showing the low still off NYC, which would indicate it is not moving away too fast. If that is the case, maybe higher amounts?

Excellent. Some models have it moving Northeast...

I am always trying to learn. Did you also hear that there is little blocking if any? What will make this storm last until Monday afternoon?

Don't eat yellow snow?

That would be incredible. Some were saying there was no real blocking?

Interesting, with no blocking. Does this system slow down on its own? Some said it could do a bit of a loop.

Yikes. Is a dry slot possible sometime after midnight?

I think "it" just arrived here in Garwood NJ...

? Heavier impulses moving through are not real banding, such as in deformation zones, occlusions, warm fronts off the ocean. What is depicted are normal waves moving along. These typically do not make the difference between 12" and 20". Slight variations perhaps. Banding, in my opinion is used too broadly.

Is this how '96 started out?

What kind of banding?

Not mixing issues or dry slots, but the most intense precipitation is over the Delmarvala. Unless this thing sits a while, it may be gone too quick?

Switching over to snow in Garwood NJ (central Union County). I need a minimum of 14 inches. Heaviest precip over the Delmarvala. Is that too far north?

What will cause the deformation zones in this setup?

So the Blizzard of '26 begins as light rain. As Joe Beradelli says, "The devil is in the details". Is the western ridge positioned correctly? Is the high to our north oriented for favorable cold air? Where will the dry slot form? Will the dry slot be too large? Many things to consider besides just model agreement. As stated before, I hate the term "banding". Most convective systems produce "waves" of varying degrees of intensity of the precipitation. When I think of banding, I tend to think more in terms of deformation zones, points of occlusion, ocean air warm fronts, etc. Throwing banding out there is just a cop out. Models are crunching areas of higher precipitation, like eastern Monmouth County in NJ and Staten Island. Will we have winds of 35 mph or more for greater than 3 hours across a major portion of the region, or will this be confined to just eastern parts of Long Island or the Jersey shore? Since the potential exists, the NWS is obligated to issue the warning. But as some mets know, wind is perhaps the most overly "exaggerated" feature forecast by the models. We shall see shortly. Probably my last best chance of a major snow storm before my move down to Tennessee. Best of luck to all...

Is the ridge in the west where we would want it?

Banding, one of my least favorite terms. I prefer deformation zones, etc...

Got 31" in Garwood, which confirmed the same amount in Elizabeth, 3 towns to my north. Central Park drastically under measured.

Never eclipsing 1996. The storm was amazing. It kept coming down hard. And when the intensity dropped slightly, it only came down just as hard a minute later. However, I wouldn't mind seeing a 40 inch snowstorm...

By the end, do you mean after the snow ends?

Rates? Just a guess...