Dark Star

There are lot of factors influencing a bust for a significant snowfall. I think one of the hardest things to forecast is the dreaded dryslot. You have a perfecty lined up intense storm, but becomes too intense that it sucks in dry air.

Sounds like a commentary on the entire science of Meteorology?

I do stand corrected. Based on what the actual temperatures were this side of the pole when the 10 day maps came out, I was highly skeptical that enough cold air came in to give us 10 days of winter.

C'mon, the term crystal ball is way outdated. I depend on more modern technology, like what is pictured below...

If by the end of January the long range maps do not hint of any cold air, you can usually stick a fork in it.

Sounds like the mega hurricane was likely due to global warming?

You mean until after the rest of the heart of winter?

Snow in these parts, "Is a miracle"

After a brief "thinning" some light "Stuff" beginning to fall...

Clouds thinning here in Linden NJ.

One of the best discussions I have ever come across...

I no longer believe the part about a State of Emergency means "automatic" funding. I would assume you eventually have to prove lossess, hardships, spending, etc? Declaring a State of Emergency for every raindrop, etc. is frivolous, irresponsible and has diminished and clouded the term "State of Emergency".

NYC Snow:

With a system this small, it is very difficult to pinpoint. It seems that for every storm, most are hung up on models as the final word. I used to enjoy when Jeff Berradelli used to give his post analysis on each storm and unravel each factor, stating that the "Devil Is In the Details", meaning most storms can be forecasted, if you choose which data is significant. In other words, in most instances, the information is there, you just have to find it. Sometimes the positioning of a high pressure system, a "kicker" way across the continent, 850mb RH. There are so many factors, but the key is to choose the right ones for each different scenario/storm. That is not me, but I would suspect there are a chosen few who do see the full picture.

Been around since 1959. Snow around these parts ia always a miracle. Rain/Snow line can come into play, even when it is below 20 degrees.

Banding?

I understand how much further west Atlanta is from NYC, but they are still east of the Applachians, and a heckuva lot farther south than us to be colder than us.

This is normally the outcome. Snow around the NYC metro area is a miracle. Without cold air, there really isn't much of a chance. With cold air, it is a crapshoot. Things have to align up almost perfectly. Too much development, not enough development, too late development, small swath dried up, near miss, locusts...

Rule of thumb is they don't plow until we get at least 3 inches. They plowed in Garwood twice in one week after 1 inch of snow.

Although, for all intents and purposes in central Union County NJ, it might as well have been over by 7 AM...

Hey, that's my procedure!

I didn't call anything? Perhaps I was linked to another post?

I wish I was in Canada then...