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Dark Star

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Dark Star

  1. Dark Star
    Although, for all intents and purposes in central Union County NJ, it might as well have been over by 7 AM...
  2. Dark Star
    Hey, that's my procedure!
  3. Dark Star
    I didn't call anything? Perhaps I was linked to another post?
  4. Dark Star
    I wish I was in Canada then...
  5. Dark Star
    1 1/4" snow here in GarwoNJ) and the town plowed, after salting twice. That's two separate OT for the taxpayers for 1" events. Unprecedented.
  6. Dark Star
    It's only a bust if Central Park does not measure 1"
  7. Dark Star
    There is precip moving over us, just not reaching the ground. It will take a while to break through...
  8. Dark Star
    except the drier air is already eating away our totals...
  9. Dark Star
    Only reached down to 24 degrees here in Garwood NJ, central Union County NJ. Not a heat island. More or less seasonable?
  10. Dark Star
    Some snow showers at the Buffalo Bills football stadium. forecasts are for 8-12" tonight and then another 3-5" tomorrow? What if they played at the regularly scheduled time of 1 PM today?
  11. Dark Star
    No squall here in Garwood, central Union County NJ. Just some moderate flurries at best. Radar showing rain, but we know how that goes...
  12. Dark Star
    I was going by actual NWS forecast...
  13. Dark Star
    I'm seeing upper teens? Maybe single digits in the usual icebox spots?
  14. Dark Star
    Seems that the closer to the coast (NYC and immediate suburbs) that it is "drying up"?
  15. Dark Star
    NYC metro is almost always on the "border" of either out to sea or the rain snow line. Without cold air, you really don't have any chance...
  16. Dark Star
    I stand corrected. I didn't think the cold air was going to advect down and across as quick as it did. I'm surprised there is any cold air. Kudos to those who stuck by the 10 day maps. They have been foretelling cold air for over 2 years now, kicking the forecast down the proverbial road until the next 7-10 day period. Cold came down Canada so fast. I figured the Pacific air was going to "get stuck" in west central Canada for the rest of the winter. Hopefully any subsequent warmups are short lived, at least for a while?
  17. Dark Star
    Trusted models? AI could be a good thing, especially when you can adjust for errors in the program say at day 3 and correct for biases. Might improve long range patterns? I would think the AI would correct for known biases, otherwise, why use AI? I would think no model would handle an anomalous event well? Or perhaps instead of AI, have human intervention adjusting at say, day 3 in a long range model to correct for a suspected error?
  18. Dark Star
    Sorry, I was responding to the comment by LibertyBell. I replied with what I wanted, not what the recent progs are.
  19. Dark Star
    How about single digit cold, followed by modified arctic air? This way we can have snow, and keep it too...
  20. Dark Star
    Ocean County still trying to buy out waterfront homes, even those that were raised higher than the flood zone height requirements after Sandy.
  21. Dark Star
    According to the NWS gust reports, there were winds, but perhaps some gusts in most parts, unless of course you were very close to the coast, as usual. Sustained winds have picked up this morning though. Winds rarely follow the forecast, as its hard to mix down to surface level.
  22. Dark Star
    IF there is colder air around, it will only (most likely) help). While the ocean has not cooled (considerably) since January 6th, the storm ran into at best marginal cold air. At least the progged storm for January 16th will have some colder air to work with, eliminating at least one variable...
  23. Dark Star
    Yesterday, Edmonton was 4 degrees F and forecast to rise to 15F today, but then drop off into the negative teens Thursday and Friday. Below average fer sure, but not sure if this is cold enough once it travels south and east?
  24. Dark Star
    I've been trying to ignore the extended maps and trying to concentrate on real time data. Looking for sources of cold air, whether it be in Canada, Siberia, or Northern Europe...
  25. Dark Star
    Looking at actual temperatures in Edmonton Canada yesterday, It was 4 degrees F, with a forecst of 15 degrees F for today. Later in the week, daytime high temperatures are expected to fall into the negative teens (at least). That is definitely below normal. I wonder if that is just from normal interior air cooling due to lack of sunlight, or a real arctic air intrusion from over the pole? It wil be interesting if that can affect the NYC metro temperatures sometime later next week to cool us down and provide a cold air source to tap into in case there are any storms around. Again, I'm not bullish on these 10 day + maps to provide accurate forecsts. Trying to use real time data, and attempting to extrapolate on what may hasppen, based on real time and short term upper level patterns...
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