Dark Star

Actually I seem to recall numerous 60 degree days followed by snow. However, in those cases, there was cold air behind the warm air to pull down for saccumulating snow to occur. Gotta love the "sun angle" though...

The NYC metro area has become too litigious. Seems (almost) nowhere allows skiing, skating, sledding...

Yes, we am...

I would tend to agree that the Pacific Jet IS the cause of our warmer weather here in the Northeast. As long as that is persistent, it will result in warmth in our area, and probably lack of cold air into Canada. I guess we could argue the ancient Chicken and Egg controversy? We will continue to see "colder signals" constantly postponed, until it is March, with perhaps an occasional ebb where some cold air will reach the NYC area.

Agreed. Same here in Union County NJ. Most of NJ "spared" as a rational forecaster might have expected. Winds near and around the ocean is almost always another story. Windspeeds, at least for a storm, are almost always "over blown" for NYC and western suburbs. Mixing usually inhibited by friction. Over the immediate coastal areas, the winds could be realized. Just another rain event. Heavy lines were east of most of NJ.

We're wasting "sun angle"

Almost never, but the models love to tease us...

Looking like NJ misses the most intense lines?

Looking like NJ dodges the heaviest lines...

Always a possibility, but if I had a dollar for everytime models showed snow on the backside of a system, well, I would have money...

I was horrible at math and had to take remedial math in college, but made it through Calc 4. I think the multiple blackboard equations were not necessary. If you wanted to advance the science, then yes, or if you wanted to program for the models. My head spun for sure, but luckily, many of my professors could notice that glazed look and call on me to bring me back in. I didn't stay in the field long because I didn't want to work nights for minimal pay or have to work for free for over a year as an intern. One of my professors suggested to the class to minor in meteorology, as the field was pretty small and not well paying for the effort in education. He did not last too long after that, but was a heckuva synoptic meteorologist!

I was too young to remember, I guess...

Except you CAN'T have snow without cold air. Oxymoron? Contradiction? Would rather have cold and take my chances that the timing is right?

Yes you are correct, a frozen arctic would make things colder. My bad, I thought you had some inside information that the ice caps would be returning to more normal coverage.

I'm confused. Is the Arctic supposed to re-freeze anytime soon? Did I miss something? I hope to see it.

Deja vu?

Happy First and last day of Meteorological Winter. Just kidding. I'm sure there will be a 2-4 day period where the mercury stays below 32 F.

I wonder if there are graphs or charts showing the world wide temperature effects based on volcanic actiivty over the last 200 years?

It it's not reported, it never happened, therefore the forecast was accurate. Just joking. Normally, winds too often underperforming. This was one of the events where they did over perform. I think the models generally looks around 850, and forget things like friction to keep them from reaching all the way to the surface?

MVA's?

I wonder what they were responding to?

Just reset the tarp on my firewood pile and found a few chunks of ice!!?? I know we had some colder nights, but to find ice in central Union County NJ in November?

We are talking about sustained warmth. The 1980s had some pretty cold winters. The arctic highs suppressed a lot of the storms south, so we didn't see a lot of snowstorms. I fear we are either in a "stalled" pattern or a new norm. And the warmth is magnified around these parts due to a weaker Labrador/Gulf Stream circulation?

Time to fix the program?

What I find amazing is the interpretation of a right or wrong forecast. IT's okay to be wrong, but it hurts like heck. i do believe most weather events are predictable. It's a matter of using the right tools at the right time (not this cowboy). I used to love Jeff Beradelli's post analysis of a storm, especially ones that "underperformed" based on the general guidance. He would always point out indicators as to why things didn't work out on a particular storm. It was a very good learning tool (I know, I'm off on a tangent)...