Dark Star

Amazingly, it was enough rain to clean our street, which had enough salt to kill every fish in the Rahway River from Cranford to the Arthur Kill, where it empties...

The climate warming doesn't help. But in my opinion, the relentless Pacific jet has been affecting our weather more than just about anything. Of course, the Pacific jet may very well be a result of global warming as well...

I think Don said -2.1 degrees for January? That's based on the previous 30 year average, which is a warmer average than taking the last 100 years or so. If we took the last 100 year average, this January was right around normal, maybe a smidgen above normal?

Cold air is at least not far away. I don't want to post my NYC metro snow triangle again. I've lived through the 70's and 80's with some pretty darn cold winters, but just poor patterns for snow. They key ingredient is cold air. The next is of course everything lining up just right. We live in a zone where we typically straddle the 540 thickness line. One slight tick one way or the other means less snow. Then sometimes, we are in the model's bullseye, and then we get a subsidence zone right over us. I am normally one cancelling winter by late January if the pattern has been miserable and continues to look so on the long range models. This year is different. We have hope. The models aren't sniffing out cold or warm very well, but as long as Canada, especially eastern Canada has cold air, one can be optimistic. Yes, year by year we are warming. Around here especially, as we have learned on this site from the Labrador/Gulf Stream circulation slowing down. We have men on base, we just need the timely hit...

Wow, talk about a screw zone. Glad this is "supposed" to be rain...

Now it's too warm.

I want in on this action!!!

Mebee so, but I am still optimistic as long as there is cold air in southeastern Canada. A slight tick to the south, and it could change things quickly...

I'm "assuming" that someone did a statistical study. I understand the concept, but I disagree. I believe we should use all years on record as the average. Otherwise, it is still subjective, in my stubborn opinion.

Had the slightest slippery area of the part of my driveway which doesn't get any sun, here in Garwood NJ (central Union County). Temperature was 34.

Great Lakes effect?

Indeed farther north. Not sure how people survive in those regions. I guess there is something to be said about solitude...

Edmonton is 22 degrees F and Gillam is -22 F. Not sure how accurate these readings are. Gillam is a bit southwest of the lower corner of the Hudson Bay. Based on this, the core of the colder air in Canada appears to be in the East?

That's always a good one. I am more optimistic this winter, since we have seen something resembling cold air...

CYA? With a high of 38 today, and a low of 32 tonight, freezing rain isn't likely. Although we all know 32 is the freezing temperature, you really need something colder than that for freezing rain. However, on some outlying areas, where untreated surfaces might be a tad colder, a light spotty drizzle could freeze on contact and cause havoc. There is spot on the Garden State Parkway, somewhere near or just south of the PNC Bank Art Center, there is a section of the road (near a wetland) that on rare occasions freezes when there is a heavy dew or light fog and cars go skidding.

January thaw historically was between January 17 through January 23rd. Not that anybody is going to hold the weather to those specific dates.

That is correct.

That doesn't prove anything. Radiational cooling is always minimized with stronger winds, and is at it s peak with no winds. This theory is going nowhere without true modeling. While there may be a minute difference in warming from the unfrozen lakes, this is at best a hypothesis that needs an in depth study.

I will daresay less than 1 degree, and a lot less than winds reducing the effect of overnight radiational cooling, downsloping, lack of snow cover. Until someone can quantify it for NYC, it is a non item.

My memory is poor, but I thought we were moving towards a phase 8 last winter, then just disappeared?

Ever hear that high winds impedes radiational cooling? If you can show me the calculations, then maybe it can be considered. Of course you would have to taken in heating due to downsloping, etc...

and you can quantify the effect on NYC and it takes in account the effects of downsloping, cloud cover, snow cover, and all other variables?

Unquantifiable, therefore, not (officially) a factor here.

Thank you!