Dark Star
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Everything posted by Dark Star
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OBS-Nowcast Noon Saturday 2/15-Noon Monday 2/17
Dark Star replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Need 0.5" to make it to 10" this season. -
I don't know, would I take a guaranteed 4" snow fall from this system, or trade it for a future bigger possibility? I think I would trade it for what's behind the curtain...
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I think the only harder thing the models have to predict than snow, is wind...
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1.5" of the jolly white stuff in Garwood NJ (central NJ) just as advertised... Brings my season total to 9.5" Can double digits be far behind?
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Looks like that northern part in central PA dries up long before it crosses into the "upper" half of Jersey?
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Some people divide New Jersey geographically. I tend to weight the division via population distribution (I don't know why)...
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The post was somebody from Patterson, NJ. Not sure if the forecast was ever 5"-10" for that town. Regardless, the energy was about 75 miles farther north. But strangely, the colder air was farther to the east, limiting the snow just west of NYC. Usually, the air is colder as you move west.
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It's funny how these things don't work out. The southern trends stay north, and the northern trends stay south anyway...
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Depends which time the forecast was issued. I never saw an official 5" to 10" from the NWS, but who knows?
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Come to central Union county NJ, you'll see UNDERPERFORMING!
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i was optimistic up until getting skunked just now, and seeing the following events to be in question...
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At my age, I should be more mature in handling living in a "screw" zone. I understand this was to be a marginal event, after an initial Winter Storm Watch was issued. The storm did perform pretty much as advertised (based on the most recent 24-36 hour forecasts). Newark, 10 miles away from central Union County received 3.0". Garwood got 1" of snow, some sleet (not the sleet fest as advertised), and then was pretty much over. Perhaps I am discontent, seeing that the Tuesday, Thursday and coming weekend storms are beginning to unravel.
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For my location, anything would be better...
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1.0" of snow here in Garwood, central union County NJ. right before the sleet fest started.
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Heaviest snow pushes north of Rockland County, through Poughkeepsie, Hartford, then Boston.
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I saw varying start times, both here and from the NWS. I think the times averaged between a 4PM and 6PM start time? One would tend to think the later the start time, the worse the show?
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They posted a Winter Storm Watch yesterday by midday. That was strange, considering it is a "marginal" event, and was about 56 hours in advance. A Winter Storm Watch is a precursor before a Winter Storm Warning. A Winter Weather Advisory is a downgrade. I guess we can debate intent, semantics, grammar, etc.
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NWS Upton now backs down to a Winter Weather Advisory. They must be reading this board.
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Except that freezing rain on the roadways is rare, in my experience (talking about NYC and immediate suburbs within a 20 mile radius). Freezing drizzle is probably worse since it provides a thin glaze. Freezing rain can actually "wash itself away", especially on busier roadways. Of course, there are a lot of factors involved, but unless the air temperature is more than a few degrees below freezing, it usually doesn't impact the area (on roadways) aforementioned. Freezing rain is usually more of a concern on sidewalks, powerlines and tree branches. Areas farther north and west, especially hilly terrain, is a different story.
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It's not sounding optimal for mostly snow, yet the NWS (forecast discussion) is still calling for just that, mostly snow, with a few cautions.
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The NYC NWS discussion believes this will be mainly all snow, but hints at some other possibilities as well, depending upon the intensities Based on tracking the discussion on this board, the models are suggesting much more in the way of sleet?
