Dark Star

As a stubborn old guy, I first measure the actual temperature. After that, then I look at the wind and wind chill effect temperature. for sure, the wind chills were extremely uncomfortable at times this January, but the actual air temperature was more representative of January (based on the past 150 years or so of data).

THANK YOU!!!

150 years seems like a good enough data base. Except we only use 20 years (or 30 years according to Mgerb) for our averages. And although we don't have records going back before they were officially recorded, I thought we had a fairly reliable estimates from things such as tree cross sections, sedimentations, ice core sampling?

January 2025 is the colder departure. Don't forget, our average normal departures are based on the most recent 20 year averages, which are warmer than the 20 years before that, and 20 years before that. So although November and December were colder than the "average" is really wasn't that cold, just closer to "normal"

There is insufficient research to prove it. It would be nearly impossible to gather enough data of enough different scenarios to come even close to thinking that the Great Lakes would have any affect on NYC. I could see maybe a degree, but any more than that would be purely speculative. And why would the Great Lakes "effect" have more impact on night time temperatures than daytime temperatures? How can they have much of an effect more than 400 mile away? More than warming resulting from downslope over the Appalachians, wind preventing radiational cooling. heat island effects, other weather factors, such as where the core of the cold air entered the US? Again, there may be an effect, but not even close to any of the ones I mentioned, and most likely improbable to isolate and quantitate. Snow cover, besides providing a cold and reflective surface, provides a less frictional surface, allowing cold air to travel farther and become less moderated. So yes, a large water body can also have an effect, but again, not to that extent. And again, you get into the debate over a source of cold air coming directly down eastern Canada through the Hudson Valley. Not only is it direct cold air, but it will freeze Hudson Bay in a hurry.

Takes 5 hours to get to Boston, maybe about 90 minutes to get to Philly?

I appreciate all the long range discussions. Thanks.

Yes, but the number of people affected is the difference.

Then expect, rain...

I've been using a combination of neosporin (including on my thumbnails) and Gold Bond Eczema Relief on my hands. I can't say what to use if you are bleeding though. That is severe. I've been sporadically massaging my dog's pads with some Gold Bond as well.

It appears colder in southern NJ than even Rockland County in NY?

Aught or Naught?

And at lest this winter, we are getting cold air. which was nowhere to be found the last few years. In those years, I, myself included, would be "cancelling" winter right about now. Based on my definition of winter, if you haven't had any cold or snow by the end of January, and nothing looks good in the long range progs by the first week or two for February, then it is time to move on. This season, at January 22, 2024, we have seen WINTER, and it appears there is more winter to come on the foreseeable horizon...

8 degrees up here in Garwood (central Union County NJ). My thermometer sensor battery died from the cold last night...

For my area, blowing salt. The streets are so white, you would swear it was covered in ice or snow. The salt will be here for weeks now, getting in animals' feet, our shoes, cars, storm sewers, rivers, streams, drinking water...

My worst vacation was in the Bahamas in early spring. A cold front brought temps down so low, you couldn't even go in the pools.

I don't think one cold month can be used to say that we are back to an 80's pattern? I'll take cold air anytime, and hope for a major snowstorm in between cold snaps, especially with that nasty persistent warm Pacific jet looming...

At January 20th, I wouldn't say the cold has been wasted. My town has received 7.5" of the glorious white stuff so far. The fact that cold air has made its appearance in the northeast is a good sign. It takes a lot of things to go right to get a significant snowstorm in these parts. Cold air is one of the ingredients.

I would debate that central Union county NJ was in a bit of a "screw" zone. Around 3 PM, when the system was forecast to really start intensifying, an area of subsidence occurred and brought the intensity to a very light flizzle...

I suppose varying waves of heavier precipitation that occurs in almost nearly every storm, rain or snow events, is banding. However, I think we throw around the term as though one town receives 12" while a neighboring town receives 2". These would more appropriately be referred to as deformation zones, or areas of intense lifting caused by specific synoptic conditions? I think this would be an interesting point of discussion on one of the banter topics?

I "think" the NWS was pretty accurate with this one. There were a lot of varying forecasts from other entities, but none too far off the mark. Even though my backyard (Garwood NJ - central Union county) received 3.5", I was a little disappointed. I was hoping for a little bit of an overperformer. But with the subsidence at the exact time the heavier stuff was supposed to fall, I knew it was not to be. Even though the radar showed the "screw" zone, I was pessimistically optimistic that it would quickly fill in as some had mentioned. At least it's cold, and my fire is still burning from last night...

Banding?

Beginning to see some clearing skies...

You must have seen somebody else's post...