Dark Star

Yet we just had a post several days ago on how greatly improved most of the models are.

Mood Flurries falling in Garwood, Central Union County NJ

Models are certainly improved since I was banging in 1981, but they have gotten dramatically better since 2004? I've seen some > 5 day models actually get worse in the last few years...

There are some pretty intelligent and rational people here (I'm not one of them). What are these drones?

Interesting that they use some of the same colors for above and below normal?

Just be careful in the bath houses...

I don't know, probably just my imagination, but does anyone track average winds per day? I could swear it's been windier than normal over the last 10 years or so. Probably just my memory, or my hair notices it more (since there is less of it)...

When you are snow starved, and in the pattern with that relentless Pacific jet, you don't like to waste any cold air...

What time will it start?

That would mean a lot of regions average below normal (especially if most of the US has been above average)?

Didn't receive a true squall here in Linden. More just like a light (to at best moderate) snow shower. Nothing stuck or accumulated.

Snow shower in the Tremley Point section of Linden, NJ. Some pinging, so I assume either sleet or graupel is mixed in (although somebody on this Board called for a mix of snow and hail?

Years ago, counties were putting out bans on dumping snow directly into waterways because they were concerned about the road salts mixed in and affecting the water quality. Now they pre salt even though no freezing/accumulation is likely.

I thought it was supposed to be near 60 by midweek?

Awful. Not that the models are meant to be accurate at that distance in time, but to be completely opposite would say not to even run them for that period. I guess some day when "AI" is built into the models which would allow them to correct themselves when it sees its own stupidity?

Give or take 1/10 of a degree, (I think) the global temperature has risen about 1.5 degrees over the last 100 years. So I wouldn't expect the dramatic shift we have been seeing. Some of this board have pointed out that the slowing down of the Labrador/Gulf Stream circulation has warmed the greater NYC by as much as 4 degrees over the last decade, or so (yes I understand about the expanding heat island effect). That, plus the stubborn Pacific Jet has been raising this forums temperatures to more than noticeable levels. Is the position and extent of the Pacific Jet just a normal variation, or is global warming causing it to be fixed where it is? Has China largely contributed to this stubborn hot spot in the Pacific, since a great deal of the carbon emissions have been transferred to that country over the last 30 years?

For the NYC immediate metro area, (true) snow squalls are rare. Unless you have a truly dynamic system, they are near impossible to predict with accuracy. Much like a line of summer T-Storms, once they pass over the eastern Appalachians in eastern PA, then move over the foothills of NJ, the downslope robs most of them of their punch.

I am ever so slightly optimistic to see cold air return again this winter, only because we actually broke the trend and saw come cold weather...

What about freezing ponds for skating, or making snow on the slopes?

I saw some virga...

I don't know about that. I think you need a sustained "COLD" period to really do the job?

Though persistence is the least scientific forecasting tool, it would be difficult to doubt any extended range outlook for warmer than normal temperatures, given the recent history...

Both NBC and CBS...

At the parade itself, is okay. It's what they put on television...