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Dark Star

Meteorologist
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  1. Dark Star
    Strange, while Garwood NJ (central Union County NJ) has been under some heavy radar, only receiving occasional heavy downpours, mostly light to moderate, with possible tapering off to lighter scattered precip within a half hour, based on the latest radar?
  2. Dark Star
    I hear thee.
  3. Dark Star
    If a storm is predicted, and misses by 100 miles, its a bust. In fact some forecasters are persistent with the previous 48 hours outputs, that they can't revise their forecasts. Easy for me to say as an armchair forecaster. March 05, 2001 was a major bust when almost every forecaster stuck with the forecast, even after the snow had moved north and east of Manhattan. Alan Kasper was the first to pick this up.
  4. Dark Star
    Imagine the ordinary ridge or trough passing through is like one big bicycle tire, with asymmetrical spokes. Each spoke represents a “wrinkle” in the atmosphere or Positive Vorticity Advection (PVC). The ridge or trough will rotate the various PVC areas through your area. On a hot dry day, with no PVC, a thunderstorm can still form due to hot rising air, but will normally be localized and short lived. On a hot humid day, a thunderstorm can form, but will still likely be localized and short lived. When a “spoke” of PVC rotates through, this can spark several scattered thunderstorms, as it feeds more upper level dynamics. Of course a larger area of PVC has the potential to set off widespread areas of thunderstorms. And if the you get enough crossing/merging of different layers of various pressures, temperatures, etc. (in the atmosphere) you can get the severe types of supercells. The more upper level support, the less likely the lack of sun or marine air will affect the thunderstorm development.
  5. Dark Star
    I wouldn't put Ocean County, Pike, Sussex, or Orange, Putnam, Ulster Dutchess, or Litchfield Counties in NYC metro area for forecasting purposes (especially in winter).
  6. Dark Star
    Some models called for the bullseye of the precipitation to be over NYC metro area, others called for it to be north of the area. Models that called for the heaviest totals north of the area look like may be correct, while the other models will not. In the winter, us Snow Geese would call this a bust.
  7. Dark Star
    Aluminum chairs, don't know if wood would have made a difference???
  8. Dark Star
    Finally, a shower here in Garwood NJ - central Union County. Slight bit o thunder. No rain all weekend.
  9. Dark Star
    Central Union County in NJ hasn't received any rain either. Radar looks strange, with rain cells moving west from the coast, and east along the western Jersey border.
  10. Dark Star
    I was tracking winds during Sandy and they began falling as it approached. However, that turn inland brought with it the storm surge, which unfortunately does not dissipate as rapidly as the winds do. So it will depend on which side of the "remnants" of the storm that you are on
  11. Dark Star
    Looks like it is being pulled west?
  12. Dark Star
    Of course, we go back to the Central Park monitoring station. Seems the government never wants to listen...
  13. Dark Star
    So it's a people management issue. However, you don't want the government deciding on how to do that...
  14. Dark Star
    I've been preaching since the 1970's that the population increase will eventually doom the planet. It seems the Europeans are the only ones with zero to negative population growth (not accounting for immigration).
  15. Dark Star
    I am okay with no subforum for Union/Essex counties in NJ, even though I live in Union County. I think this area is well represented under the NYC forum.
  16. Dark Star
    This sounds political to me.
  17. Dark Star
    Hey, I'm one of those freaks...
  18. Dark Star
  19. Dark Star
    Where the @%$$!!! are the Cicadas? By the way, looks like some showers working their way down from Summit towards Cranford and maybe Westfield NJ?
  20. Dark Star
    My neighbor has a fire going...which is okay if you live in a more rural area, but when you can spit and hit your neighbor's house, maybe a fire pit is not the most neighborly thing to have?
  21. Dark Star
    I would think the heatwave alerts are more geared for health reasons and not meant to be defined for climatology reasons?
  22. Dark Star
    Hard to decipher the smoke from the smog. Yesterday was supposedly a very bad Ozone day.
  23. Dark Star
    Most of Newark Airport is paved over in blacktop, one big parking lot. So even if the sensor is in a "shady" area (doubtful) the entire area is a heat sink.
  24. Dark Star
    No. Ocean County and the surrounding towns developed their own control programs to help prevent property damage from floods. The money came from the federal government, but not through Blue Acres. They bought up quite a few properties in the Good Luck Point area in Bayville which were utterly devastated. Amazingly, I watched the winds reduce along the Jersey shore before Sandy hit. Unfortunately, the surge was not affected.
  25. Dark Star
    At least extreme coastal areas will be affected. The state, through federal grants, bought my property where my house once stood on Barnegat Bay. While I don't attribute Sandy to global warming, the coastal water levels will rise. Luckily I'll be dead by then...
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