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Dark Star

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Dark Star

  1. Dark Star
    According to the NWS gust reports, there were winds, but perhaps some gusts in most parts, unless of course you were very close to the coast, as usual. Sustained winds have picked up this morning though. Winds rarely follow the forecast, as its hard to mix down to surface level.
  2. Dark Star
    IF there is colder air around, it will only (most likely) help). While the ocean has not cooled (considerably) since January 6th, the storm ran into at best marginal cold air. At least the progged storm for January 16th will have some colder air to work with, eliminating at least one variable...
  3. Dark Star
    Yesterday, Edmonton was 4 degrees F and forecast to rise to 15F today, but then drop off into the negative teens Thursday and Friday. Below average fer sure, but not sure if this is cold enough once it travels south and east?
  4. Dark Star
    I've been trying to ignore the extended maps and trying to concentrate on real time data. Looking for sources of cold air, whether it be in Canada, Siberia, or Northern Europe...
  5. Dark Star
    Looking at actual temperatures in Edmonton Canada yesterday, It was 4 degrees F, with a forecst of 15 degrees F for today. Later in the week, daytime high temperatures are expected to fall into the negative teens (at least). That is definitely below normal. I wonder if that is just from normal interior air cooling due to lack of sunlight, or a real arctic air intrusion from over the pole? It wil be interesting if that can affect the NYC metro temperatures sometime later next week to cool us down and provide a cold air source to tap into in case there are any storms around. Again, I'm not bullish on these 10 day + maps to provide accurate forecsts. Trying to use real time data, and attempting to extrapolate on what may hasppen, based on real time and short term upper level patterns...
  6. Dark Star
    Sun has come out in Garwood, central Union County, NJ, after a little light snow...Town plowed after 1" of snow last night, twice. They always do a great job, but certainly a waste of taxpayer money, considering the entire event was above 32 degrees. If they were concerned about accidents, they could have just concentrated on a few intersections on the main road.
  7. Dark Star
    and the other times we missed out on snow that decade is when we were on the wrong side of the high and got the lake cutters...
  8. Dark Star
    1" snow here in Garwood, central Union County, NJ. 34 degrees F. Dangerously close to blowing my 1-2" slushy accumulation before a changeover. Haven't seen any sleet yet, but snow intensity is lightening up.
  9. Dark Star
    13 days out, little faith in the accuracy. Until we actually see true arctic air coming across the pole, nothing will change. I must sound like a broken record, but look at real time data, not the models, to get an idea of what is going on.
  10. Dark Star
    I know yesterday, the band of -30 was quite small, so I am not hopeful.
  11. Dark Star
    But WHERE is the cold air coming from? No arctic air in North America. How quickly can the arctic air build and cross over from Norhter Europe to our area?
  12. Dark Star
  13. Dark Star
    It seems a lot of newbies don't think you need cold air in the mix?
  14. Dark Star
  15. Dark Star
    Thanks for the map, but didn't a previous long range map in late December show arctic air coming across the pole into eastern Canada? I think we all know the accuracy of these long range models. I admit my skills have greatly eroded, but I have been concentrating more on real time temperatures in Canada. Right now, the core of the coldest air in North America is north of Michigan and just west of Hudson Bay, with a few extensions further west. Then, as you go farther north, it gets warmer. The true arctic air is predominantly over northern Europe right now. So my question is, how or where is the cold air on this projection coming from? What are the inputs of this model and how accurate has it been?
  16. Dark Star
    and where is the cold air coming from?
  17. Dark Star
    Where is the arctic air? So far, there is none this side of the north pole.
  18. Dark Star
    No real arctic air out west. Coldest air is in a wedge north of Michigan, just West of Hudson Bay. There is no continuous feed of arctic air this side of the north pole. You don't need any models to see that. just look at the real time physical data...
  19. Dark Star
    Not sure if I ever remember that happening. Models have occasionally shown it, but never really happens?
  20. Dark Star
    Elevation?
  21. Dark Star
    How so, with no true arctic air in Canada, except for maybe a small wedge of seasonable air along a narrow stretch just west of Hudson Bay? I think if we start looking at the present physical data instead of the models, we might actually see what is happening?
  22. Dark Star
    GFS Ens looks like it says seasonable in NYC metro area, and warmer the farther north you go, therefore, no sustained cold air?
  23. Dark Star
    You need cold air. For NYC you need moisture, cold air and luck for snow. We can't have it both ways.
  24. Dark Star
    But surpressed why? Because of a cold high? That is normally one of the features you need, well placed. Marginal "seasonable" air is not going to cut it, not around here...
  25. Dark Star
    We could very well be in an unprecedented climate. I lived through the 70's and 80's, and had some mighty cold winters, very little snow. I would put little faith into previous patterns. We haven't seen anything this extreme; including the general warming up of the northeast due to the weakening of the Labrador/Gulf Stream circulation...
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